Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.278 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.444 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 0.85% and 18.96% respectively. The decline is attributed to the impact of industry regulations and the expiration of tax exemption policies [1][5] - The effective membership count for Mango TV exceeded 70 million, with membership revenue for the first half of the year reaching 2.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%. This growth is driven by high-quality content and an innovative membership benefits system [1][5] - The content ecosystem continues to improve, with 31 seasonal variety shows launched in Q3, positioning the company among the top in the long video platform sector. Upcoming key programs are expected to further enhance content performance in Q4 [1][6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 3.318 billion yuan and a net profit of 380 million yuan, with year-on-year declines of 7.14% and 27.41% respectively. The decline in revenue and profit is primarily due to the impact of regulatory changes in the television industry and the expiration of tax benefits [1][5] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was -325 million yuan, a significant decrease from 1.091 billion yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to increased investment in content [1][5] Membership and Advertising Business - The membership business showed strong performance, with Mango TV's effective membership exceeding 70 million. The membership revenue for the first half of the year was 2.486 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, supported by popular shows and an enhanced membership benefits system [1][5] - The advertising revenue for the first half was 1.721 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, with expectations of continued trends into Q3. The company aims to recover advertising revenue through innovative marketing strategies and optimized AI algorithms [1][5] Content Development - The company launched 31 seasonal variety shows in Q3, ranking among the top in the long video platform sector. Notable shows include "Hello, Saturday 2024" and "Chinese Restaurant 8," which are expected to drive content performance in Q4 [1][6][7] - In terms of drama series, popular titles such as "You Are More Beautiful Than Starlight" and "Private Romance" were released in Q3, with more anticipated releases expected to maintain viewer engagement [1][6][7] Investment Outlook - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 1.96 billion yuan, 2.19 billion yuan, and 2.44 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 1.05 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.30 yuan [1][7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.56 CNY based on a 37x PE for 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.317 billion CNY in Q3 2024, showing a year-over-year decline of 1.5% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 8.73%. The gross margin for Q3 was 29.8%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points year-over-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 379 million CNY, down 27.41% year-over-year and 35.76% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to an increase in income tax expenses [1][2]. - In the first half of 2024, new media operations generated 4.96 billion CNY in revenue, a decrease of 3.6% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 36.1%, down 6.6 percentage points year-over-year. Membership revenue for the same period was 2.486 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 27% year-over-year. The effective membership count exceeded 70 million as of October 11, 2024 [1][2]. - The company has seen a significant increase in active users, with 268 million monthly active users in August 2024, ranking among the top three in the long video industry. The contribution of series to membership revenue is also increasing, with effective plays of member content rising to 79%, a 16% year-over-year increase [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 13.704 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 14.456 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.652 billion CNY in 2024, down 53.5% from 2023 [3][8]. - The gross margin is projected to decrease to 27.0% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to be 11.4%. The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 7.4% in 2024 [3][8].

芒果超媒（300413. SZ） 24年3季报点评:所得税影响短期业绩表现,会员业务量质双升 核心观点 营收及利润下滑,内容投入持续加大。1)24年前3季度公司实现营业收入 102. 78 亿元、归母净利润 14. 44 亿元，同比分别下滑 0. 85%、−18. 96%，对 应全面摊薄 EPS 0.77元;2)Q3 单季度公司实现营收 33.18 亿元、归母净利 润 3.80 亿元,同比分别下滑 7.14%、27.41%;营收及业绩下滑主要在于一方 面运营商业务受电视行业治理影响下滑,另一方面所得税免税政策到期(前 三季度所得税费用为 2. 77 亿元，上年同期为-174 万元）; 3）前三季度公司 经营活动产生的净现金流为-3. 25 亿元(上年同期为 10. 91 亿元),主要系 加大头部内容储备投入，导致经营性现金流净额出现下降波动。 会员业务表现良好,关注广告业务向山上修复可能。1）芒果 TV 有效会员数 超过 7000 万、稳居国内长视频行业前列; 营收表现上，上半年会员业务收 入 24. 86 亿元、同比增长 27%，得益于优质内容和会员权益体系：以《歌手 2024》《乘风 2024》为代表的爆 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 芒果超媒（300413）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 短期基本面触底，剧综储备丰富，出海进行中，静 待拐点到来 事项： ❖ 公司 24Q3 实现收入 33.2 亿（YOY-7%）；实现归母净利润 3.8 亿（YOY-27%）， 扣非归母净利润 3.1 亿（YOY-29%）。剔除所得税影响后预计归母净利润 YOY10%，扣非归母净利润 YOY-9.8%。 评论： ❖ 收入端：预计会员业务保持增长，广告略有压力，运营商业务高基数下继续承 压。我们预计 24Q3 会员收入保持健康增长，量价皆稳步提升，据中国证券报， 根据公开报道显示此前有效会员规模已超 7000 万；受弱宏观+产品排期影响 预计广告收入同比去年小幅下降；运营商业务预计受政策影响+去年高基数短 期继续承压。 ❖ 利润端：预计受营收结构调整，利润率有所下滑。24Q3 毛利率 29.8%，YOY7.65pct，推测主要系毛利率运营商业务占比下滑+内容成本有所提高；费率继 续优化，销售费用率 13.8%同比-5.83pct，管理和研发费用率分别为 1.78%和 1.15%，分别同比-2.46pct/-0.69pct。综合来看 ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|芒果超媒（300413） 会员规模持续增长，优质内容储备丰富 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月29日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 我们预计公司 24-26 年营业收入分别为 153.59/168.95/184.16 亿元，同比分别增长 5%/10%/9%；归母净利润分别为 18.89/22.16/24.88 亿元，同比增速分别为-47%/17%/12%。EPS 分别为 1.01/1.18/1.33 元。我们看好公司作为国企控股长视频平台的稀缺性，以及长期优质 内容有望推动会员增长，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 姚蕾 丁子然 SAC：S0590524090001 SAC：S0590523080003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月29日 芒果超媒(300413) 会员规模持续增长，优质内容储备丰富 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------| | | | | 行 业： | 传媒/数 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/商业贸易/专营零售 证券研究报告 芒果超媒（300413）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 28 日收盘价（元） ] | 26.58 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 18.07-31.56 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 1871/1022 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 49724/27157 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 爆 款 内 容 频 出 ， 24H1 | | | 26.77% 》 2024.08.23 | | | 《优质内容 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.278 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year [1]. - The membership business continues to show strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.486 billion yuan, a significant increase of 26.77% year-on-year, and the effective membership scale exceeding 70 million [2]. - The company is actively enhancing its content offerings, with a notable increase in the number of new seasonal variety shows and a strong performance in original dramas, which is expected to bolster user engagement and retention [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.436 billion yuan, 17.149 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.521 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.52%, 11%, and 8% respectively [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.902 billion yuan in 2024, 2.096 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.379 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -46.52%, 10.21%, and 13.51% respectively [5][8]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 7.905 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease in subsequent years [5]. User Engagement and Content Strategy - The monthly active user count for the company's platform reached 268 million, placing it among the top three in the long-video industry [2]. - The company has successfully integrated AIGC technology into several programs, enhancing content production efficiency and quality [4]. - The launch of the "730 Da Mang Theater" for micro-short dramas is expected to create a unique content cluster, further diversifying the company's offerings [4].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·数字媒体 芒果超媒（300413） 2024 年第三季度财报点评：综艺及剧集播放 量齐增，会员规模再创新高 2024 年 10 月 29 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|-------|---------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | | 13977 | 14628 | 15024 | 16816 | 17818 | | 同比（ % ） | | (8.98) | 4.66 | 2.71 | 11.93 | 5.96 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 1864 | 3556 | 1745 | 2026 | 2219 | | 同比（ % ） | (11.82) | | 90.73 | (50.91) | 16.08 | 9.51 | | EPS- ...

传媒 分析师：乔琪 登记编码：S0730520090001 qiaoqi@ccnew.com 021-50586985 会员数量创新高，头部综艺延续热播表现 ——芒果超媒(300413)季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 芒果超媒(300413)公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 有效会员破 7000 万，期待 Q4 优势内容表现 ——芒果超媒(300413) 2024 年三季报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件： 公司发布 2024 年三季报。 点评： 税收政策调整影响利润增速，收入前三季度-0.85% 2024 前三季度，公司实现营业收入 102.78 亿元，同比微降 0.85%；实现 归母净利润 14.44 亿元，同比下降 18.96%，扣非归母净利润 12.26 亿元， 同比下降 23.98%，主要受税收政策调整影响，利润端略承压。分季度来看， 24Q3 单季度，公司实现营业收入 33.18 亿元，同比下降 7.14%，归母净利 润 3.80 亿元，同比下滑 27.41%，扣非归母净利润 3.14 亿元，同比下降 26.80%。费用率角度，2024 年前三季度，公司销售/管理/研发费用率为 11.87%/2.50%/1.24%，较上年同期分别下降 3.53/1.30/0.34pct。 有效会员突破 700 ...