Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.56 CNY based on a 37x PE for 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.317 billion CNY in Q3 2024, showing a year-over-year decline of 1.5% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 8.73%. The gross margin for Q3 was 29.8%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points year-over-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 379 million CNY, down 27.41% year-over-year and 35.76% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to an increase in income tax expenses [1][2]. - In the first half of 2024, new media operations generated 4.96 billion CNY in revenue, a decrease of 3.6% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 36.1%, down 6.6 percentage points year-over-year. Membership revenue for the same period was 2.486 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 27% year-over-year. The effective membership count exceeded 70 million as of October 11, 2024 [1][2]. - The company has seen a significant increase in active users, with 268 million monthly active users in August 2024, ranking among the top three in the long video industry. The contribution of series to membership revenue is also increasing, with effective plays of member content rising to 79%, a 16% year-over-year increase [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 13.704 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 14.456 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.652 billion CNY in 2024, down 53.5% from 2023 [3][8]. - The gross margin is projected to decrease to 27.0% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to be 11.4%. The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 7.4% in 2024 [3][8].

芒果超媒（300413. SZ） 24年3季报点评:所得税影响短期业绩表现,会员业务量质双升 核心观点 营收及利润下滑,内容投入持续加大。1)24年前3季度公司实现营业收入 102. 78 亿元、归母净利润 14. 44 亿元，同比分别下滑 0. 85%、−18. 96%，对 应全面摊薄 EPS 0.77元;2)Q3 单季度公司实现营收 33.18 亿元、归母净利 润 3.80 亿元,同比分别下滑 7.14%、27.41%;营收及业绩下滑主要在于一方 面运营商业务受电视行业治理影响下滑,另一方面所得税免税政策到期(前 三季度所得税费用为 2. 77 亿元，上年同期为-174 万元）; 3）前三季度公司 经营活动产生的净现金流为-3. 25 亿元(上年同期为 10. 91 亿元),主要系 加大头部内容储备投入，导致经营性现金流净额出现下降波动。 会员业务表现良好,关注广告业务向山上修复可能。1）芒果 TV 有效会员数 超过 7000 万、稳居国内长视频行业前列; 营收表现上，上半年会员业务收 入 24. 86 亿元、同比增长 27%，得益于优质内容和会员权益体系：以《歌手 2024》《乘风 2024》为代表的爆 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 芒果超媒（300413）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 短期基本面触底，剧综储备丰富，出海进行中，静 待拐点到来 事项： ❖ 公司 24Q3 实现收入 33.2 亿（YOY-7%）；实现归母净利润 3.8 亿（YOY-27%）， 扣非归母净利润 3.1 亿（YOY-29%）。剔除所得税影响后预计归母净利润 YOY10%，扣非归母净利润 YOY-9.8%。 评论： ❖ 收入端：预计会员业务保持增长，广告略有压力，运营商业务高基数下继续承 压。我们预计 24Q3 会员收入保持健康增长，量价皆稳步提升，据中国证券报， 根据公开报道显示此前有效会员规模已超 7000 万；受弱宏观+产品排期影响 预计广告收入同比去年小幅下降；运营商业务预计受政策影响+去年高基数短 期继续承压。 ❖ 利润端：预计受营收结构调整，利润率有所下滑。24Q3 毛利率 29.8%，YOY7.65pct，推测主要系毛利率运营商业务占比下滑+内容成本有所提高；费率继 续优化，销售费用率 13.8%同比-5.83pct，管理和研发费用率分别为 1.78%和 1.15%，分别同比-2.46pct/-0.69pct。综合来看 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 15.36 billion, 16.90 billion, and 18.42 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 10%, and 9% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.89 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.49 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -47%, 17%, and 12% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.01, 1.18, and 1.33 yuan [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 3.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. For the first three quarters of 2024, the total operating revenue was 10.28 billion yuan, down 0.85% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 1.44 billion yuan, a decline of 18.96% year-on-year [6][7]. Membership Growth and Content Strategy - The company has achieved a record high in membership, with over 70 million effective members as of October. The company has introduced exclusive products to enhance the average revenue per user (ARPU). In Q3, the company launched 31 new seasonal variety shows, leading the four major long video platforms in terms of new content. The effective view count for variety shows reached 2.5 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year [6][7]. Content Pipeline - The company has a rich reserve of quality content, with several new shows set to launch in Q4 2024 and 2025. Notable upcoming shows include "Goodbye Lover 4" and various dramas, with over 80 dramas currently in reserve. The company anticipates that these new releases will gradually boost viewership and membership growth [6][7]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 15.36 billion, 16.90 billion, and 18.42 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.89 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.49 billion yuan. The EPS is projected to increase from 1.01 yuan in 2024 to 1.33 yuan in 2026 [2][6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in corporate income tax policies [4][7] - The effective membership of the company has surpassed 70 million, with significant contributions from popular shows like "Singer 2024". The international app downloads increased from 130 million to 210 million, with a target of 260 million for the year [5][6] - The company has a rich reserve of key variety shows and dramas, which are expected to drive future performance growth. Upcoming shows include "Women's Reasoning Society 2" and "Time Music Conference 4" [6] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year. The third quarter revenue was 3.318 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year [4][7] - The company expects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.00, 1.16, and 1.37 yuan per share, respectively. The estimated reasonable value range for 2025 is 34.80 to 40.60 yuan per share [7][11] Revenue Forecast - The company's revenue forecast for 2024 is 14.777 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.0%. The revenue from internet video is expected to be 8.836 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.60% [9][11] - The advertising revenue is projected to decline to 3.426 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.00% year-on-year, while membership revenue is expected to grow to 5.410 billion yuan, an increase of 25.37% [9][11] Market Comparison - The company is compared with peers such as iQIYI and Netflix, with a projected P/E ratio for 2025 of 30-35 times, indicating a competitive valuation in the market [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.278 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year [1]. - The membership business continues to show strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.486 billion yuan, a significant increase of 26.77% year-on-year, and the effective membership scale exceeding 70 million [2]. - The company is actively enhancing its content offerings, with a notable increase in the number of new seasonal variety shows and a strong performance in original dramas, which is expected to bolster user engagement and retention [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.436 billion yuan, 17.149 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.521 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.52%, 11%, and 8% respectively [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.902 billion yuan in 2024, 2.096 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.379 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -46.52%, 10.21%, and 13.51% respectively [5][8]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 7.905 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease in subsequent years [5]. User Engagement and Content Strategy - The monthly active user count for the company's platform reached 268 million, placing it among the top three in the long-video industry [2]. - The company has successfully integrated AIGC technology into several programs, enhancing content production efficiency and quality [4]. - The launch of the "730 Da Mang Theater" for micro-short dramas is expected to create a unique content cluster, further diversifying the company's offerings [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a 5% year-on-year decrease in revenue for Q3 2024, amounting to 3.32 billion yuan, with gross profit declining by 24% to 990 million yuan, resulting in a gross margin drop of 7 percentage points to 30% [2] - The effective membership scale of Mango TV has exceeded 70 million, reaching a new peak, with monthly active users at 268 million, ranking among the top three in the long video industry [3] - The report anticipates that the company's leading position in the variety show sector and the launch of quality dramas will drive membership growth, leading to a revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 down to 1.75 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.22 billion yuan respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company experienced a 5% decline in revenue to 3.32 billion yuan, with gross profit down 24% to 990 million yuan and a gross margin of 30% [2] - The pre-tax profit decreased by 6% to 470 million yuan, with a tax rate of 18%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 26% to 380 million yuan [2] Content and User Growth - Mango TV's variety show viewership continues to rise, with effective views reaching 2.5 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, and a significant increase in the number of new seasonal variety shows [2] - The effective viewing share of member content has risen to 79%, up 16% year-on-year, indicating strong engagement with premium content [2] Membership and Market Position - The company has successfully increased its effective membership base to over 70 million, supported by strategic partnerships and a focus on quality content [3] - The collaboration with various partners has enhanced user engagement and contributed to the growth of the membership business [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.75 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.22 billion yuan, reflecting increased content investment pressures on profit margins [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 28, 25, and 22 times for 2024-2026 [3]

传媒 分析师：乔琪 登记编码：S0730520090001 qiaoqi@ccnew.com 021-50586985 会员数量创新高，头部综艺延续热播表现 ——芒果超媒(300413)季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | ...

[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 芒果超媒(300413)公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 有效会员破 7000 万，期待 Q4 优势内容表现 ——芒果超媒(300413) 2024 年三季报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件： 公司发布 2024 年三季报。 点评： 税收政策调整影响利润增速，收入前三季度-0.85% 2024 前三季度，公司实现营业收入 102.78 亿元，同比微降 0.85%；实现 归母净利润 14.44 亿元，同比下降 18.96%，扣非归母净利润 12.26 亿元， 同比下降 23.98%，主要受税收政策调整影响，利润端略承压。分季度来看， 24Q3 单季度，公司实现营业收入 33.18 亿元，同比下降 7.14%，归母净利 润 3.80 亿元，同比下滑 27.41%，扣非归母净利润 3.14 亿元，同比下降 26.80%。费用率角度，2024 年前三季度，公司销售/管理/研发费用率为 11.87%/2.50%/1.24%，较上年同期分别下降 3.53/1.30/0.34pct。 有效会员突破 700 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance shows a decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to increased income tax [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from increased investment in series and content production, which is anticipated to drive membership revenue growth [5][8] - The integration of AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) in content production is progressing well, with various applications already in place [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 33.2 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 7.14%, and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 8.74% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.80 billion yuan, down 27.41% year-over-year and 35.95% quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 14.05%, a decrease of 3.14 percentage points year-over-year, while the gross margin was 29.15%, down 6.67 percentage points year-over-year [3] Content Strategy - The company has solidified its leading position in variety shows, with 2.5 billion effective plays in Q3 2024, a year-over-year increase of 22% [4] - The company has a clear strategy for content production across three tiers: head, mid-tier, and customized member content [4] - The effective membership scale has exceeded 70 million, marking a new high, driven by strong content offerings and innovative member benefits [5] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 150.22 billion yuan, 166.47 billion yuan, and 179.95 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 18.11 billion yuan, 21.85 billion yuan, and 23.72 billion yuan [9][10] - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, with overseas downloads of its app increasing significantly [8]