Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][16]. Core Insights - The company is currently increasing its investment in content, which is expected to pressure short-term profits, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the potential uplift from high-quality content [1][6]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 14.08 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.364 billion yuan, down 61.6% year-on-year [6][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13%, and a net profit of 379 million yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company is in a phase of strategic transformation, focusing on increasing the production of high-quality dramas, which is expected to enhance its market share in the long run [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 13.253 billion yuan in 2025, 14.643 billion yuan in 2026, and 15.883 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of -5.9%, 10.5%, and 8.5% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 1.837 billion yuan in 2025, 2.095 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.241 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 34.7%, 14.0%, and 7.0% respectively [2][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.98 yuan in 2025, 1.12 yuan in 2026, and 1.20 yuan in 2027 [2][7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 29.5 yuan, with the current price at 22.51 yuan, indicating potential upside [2][6].

2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 杨仁文 S0350521120001 yangrw@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 方博云 S0350521120002 [Table_Title] 剧集实现突破，会员收入、人数均创新高 fangby@ghzq.com.cn ——芒果超媒（300413）2024 年&2025Q1 业绩点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 芒果超媒 | -19.0% | -19.0% | -3.9% | | 沪深 300 | -3.6% | -1.1% | 4.2% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/29 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 22.51 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 18.07-32.10 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 42,109.93 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 22,998.47 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 187, ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.08 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.364 billion yuan, down 61.63% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.76%, with a net profit of 379 million yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year [1] Business Performance - The core business revenue remains stable, but increased investment in top-tier content has led to profit fluctuations. The decline in Q1 2025 revenue is primarily due to a contraction in the traditional TV shopping segment, while the core membership business shows a steady trend [1] - Membership revenue reached 5.148 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 19.3% increase year-on-year, with the membership base growing to 73.31 million by the end of 2024 [2] - Advertising revenue was 3.438 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while operator business revenue fell to 1.593 billion yuan, down 42.4% year-on-year [2] Content Strategy - The company has a rich reserve of quality shows, with a leading market share in effective viewership for variety shows. Notable programs include "Detective Chinatown" and "Women's Reasoning Society," which ranked in the top 10 [3] - The investment in drama series increased by 12% year-on-year in Q1, with upcoming releases like "Singer 2025" and "Jinxiu Fanghua" expected to enhance membership growth and performance [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to increase quality content investment starting in 2024, which may lead to short-term profit fluctuations but is expected to accelerate membership revenue in Q2 [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 14.78 billion, 15.8 billion, and 16.94 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.72 billion, 1.98 billion, and 2.2 billion yuan respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in drama series, which is expected to impact short-term profit margins and cash flow, but is anticipated to enhance market share [6] - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at 14.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.364 billion yuan, down 61.6% year-on-year [6] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, a 12.8% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of 379 million yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 14,080 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.8% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted to be 1,821 million yuan, reflecting a 33.5% increase from the previous year [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 29% in 2024 to 32.3% by 2027 [5] - The company plans to increase its drama investment, with a projected 57 billion yuan in new amortization for film and television copyrights in 2024, a 13% increase year-on-year [6] - The target price for 2025 is set at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30x, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the closing price on April 28, 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Mango TV reported a revenue of 14.08 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.364 billion yuan, down 61.63% year-on-year, aligning with performance forecasts [1] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.08 billion yuan (yoy -3.75%) and a net profit of 1.364 billion yuan (yoy -61.63%), meeting the performance forecast of 1.25 to 1.61 billion yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.9 billion yuan (yoy -12.76%, qoq -23.71%) and a net profit of 379 million yuan (yoy -19.80%) [1] - The non-recurring net profit for 2024 was 1.645 billion yuan (yoy -2.99%) [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.2 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 412 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 30.17% [1] Content and Membership Growth - In Q1 2025, Mango TV's content investment increased significantly, with a 12% year-on-year rise in drama production costs [1] - The company maintained growth in membership revenue, driven by high-quality content [1] - In 2024, membership revenue reached 5.148 billion yuan, a 19.3% increase year-on-year, with an effective membership base of 73.31 million, up 10% from the end of 2023 [2] - The advertising revenue for 2024 was 3.438 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year [2] Content Strategy and Future Outlook - Mango TV secured five spots in the top 10 variety shows in Q1 2025, with "乘风2025" achieving 176 million views on its premiere day [2] - The company has over 100 dramas in its pipeline for 2025, including major shows like "歌手2025" [2] - The advertising business is expected to stabilize through customized long-term marketing strategies and innovative marketing models [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to increased content investment and underperformance in the operator business, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts, lowering the net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 20% and 22% to 1.76 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The target price is set at 30.80 yuan based on SOTP valuation, down from 34.23 yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a significant drop in net profit attributed to tax policy changes and increased content costs [1][4][5] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.75%, and a net profit of 1.364 billion yuan, down 61.63% [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 3.802 billion yuan, a decline of 10.8%, with a net profit turning negative at -79.99 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 2.9 billion yuan, down 12.76%, and net profit was 379 million yuan, a decrease of 19.8% [1] Business Segments - Membership revenue for 2024 was 5.148 billion yuan, an increase of 19%, with a year-end membership count of 73.31 million, up 10% [2] - Advertising revenue fell to 3.438 billion yuan, down 12%, while operator business revenue dropped 42% to 1.593 billion yuan [2] - New media interactive entertainment content production revenue grew by 10% to 1.262 billion yuan, while content e-commerce revenue decreased by 8% to 2.6 billion yuan [2] Cost and Profitability - Operating profit was under pressure due to increased content costs, which rose by 12.5% to 5.762 billion yuan, accounting for 67.1% of revenue [4][5] - The company’s content acquisition costs reached 6.348 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.3% [4] - The gross margin for the internet video business fell to 35.3%, a decline of 6 percentage points [5] Future Outlook - Membership revenue is expected to continue double-digit growth, but at a slowing rate, while operator business is anticipated to stabilize [6][7] - Advertising revenue is projected to remain under pressure due to scheduling and macroeconomic factors [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 14.351 billion, 14.871 billion, and 15.423 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.773 billion, 1.932 billion, and 2.061 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 26 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the film and television industry, with strong content and distribution capabilities. It is expected to continue its efforts in content innovation, particularly in variety shows and high-quality dramas [2]. - Cultural export is anticipated to be a significant growth driver for the company, with 2025 marking the first year of the "Mango Going Global Three-Year Action Plan" (2025-2027) [2]. - The company is expected to leverage new technologies, particularly AI, to reshape the content industry, which may lead to new growth opportunities [2]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.08 billion CNY and a net profit of 1.364 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.75% and 61.63%, respectively. The non-recurring net profit was 1.645 billion CNY, showing a slight decline of 2.99% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.9 billion CNY and a net profit of 379 million CNY, with year-on-year decreases of 12.76% and 19.8%, respectively [1]. - The revenue contributions from Mango TV, content production and operation, and content e-commerce have changed slightly, with Mango TV's effective membership growing to 73.31 million and revenue increasing to 5.148 billion CNY [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.285 billion CNY, 16.411 billion CNY, and 18.563 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.952 billion CNY, 2.443 billion CNY, and 2.816 billion CNY [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock performance relative to the market index [7]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant strategic effectiveness, with ongoing investments in content creation. Despite short-term profit impacts due to increased content spending, the long-term potential for high-quality content is expected to strengthen the company's leading position in the media sector [7]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.08 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 3.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.36 billion yuan, down 61.63% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.90 billion yuan, a decline of 12.76% year-on-year, and a net profit of 379 million yuan, down 19.80% year-on-year [7]. - The company has successfully launched a variety of high-quality content, including 160 variety shows and 27 key dramas in 2024, maintaining its market leadership in the industry [7]. - The overseas user base has doubled, with the international app revenue increasing from 62 million yuan to 141 million yuan, and downloads rising from 130 million to 261 million [7]. - The integration of technology and AI in content production has been emphasized, with the establishment of an AI application platform enhancing the efficiency of content creation across various formats [7]. Financial Forecast Summary - Projected financial metrics for the company are as follows: - Revenue is expected to grow from 14.08 billion yuan in 2024 to 16.81 billion yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 6.57% in 2025 [2][9]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 1.36 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.11 billion yuan in 2027, with a profit growth rate of 26.14% in 2025 [2][9]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 29.03% in 2024 to 29.71% in 2027 [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.73 yuan in 2024 to 1.13 yuan in 2027 [2][9].

Core Insights - The long video industry is experiencing a slow recovery, with Mango TV reporting a revenue of 14.08 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 3.75%, and a significant drop in net profit attributable to shareholders by 61.63% to 1.364 billion yuan, largely due to deferred tax asset impacts [1][8] - Despite challenges faced by competitors in increasing membership, Mango TV saw a 19.3% year-on-year increase in membership, with membership revenue surpassing 5 billion yuan for the first time, contributing over half of its internet video business revenue [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - Membership revenue is the only segment showing positive growth, reaching 5.148 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for over 50% of internet video business revenue [3] - Advertising revenue continues to decline, with 3.438 billion yuan in 2024, down 2.7% from the previous year, marking three consecutive years of decline [7] - Operator revenue also fell significantly by 42% to 1.593 billion yuan, influenced by regulatory changes affecting the television industry [7] Content Strategy - Mango TV maintains the leading market share in variety shows, with a 38% effective playback market share in Q1 2024 [6] - The company is actively engaging in the micro-short drama segment, collaborating with Hongguo Short Drama to explore monetization paths [6] - Internationally, Mango TV's app downloads increased from 130 million in 2023 to 261 million in 2024, with revenue rising from 62 million yuan to 141 million yuan [6] Financial Performance - The significant drop in net profit is attributed to changes in corporate income tax policies, with deferred tax assets impacting profit figures [8] - The cash flow from operating activities saw a drastic decline of 102.32% due to increased investments in premium content [9] - The company reported a net profit of 3.79 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 19.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased investments in high-quality content [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet sector [5]. Core Views - The report highlights the rapid advancements in AI applications and the significant growth in the millet trading volume, with a 105% year-on-year increase in 2024 [2][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw record-high millet trading volumes, indicating a strong upward trend in the IP millet industry [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in the gaming sector and the recovery of the domestic film industry, recommending specific companies for investment [4][41]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector experienced a slight increase of 0.14% during the week of April 19-25, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index (0.38%) and the ChiNext index (1.74%) [12][19]. - Notable gainers included companies like Shengyi Technology and Happiness Blue Sea, while major decliners included Rebate Technology and Mango Super Media [12][19]. Key Developments - Manus AI, a general-purpose AI entity, successfully raised $75 million, quadrupling its valuation to nearly $500 million [2][16]. - Baidu launched its new Wenxin large model series, significantly improving processing speed and reducing costs by 80% [2][17]. - ByteDance's AI application platform "Kouzi Space" began internal testing, enhancing collaborative office capabilities [2][18]. - The "2025 Xianyu Millet Trend Report" indicated a substantial increase in domestic millet consumption, surpassing Japanese millet [2][18]. Important Data Tracking - The box office for the week of April 20-27 reached 191 million yuan, with "Nezha: The Devil's Child" leading at 51 million yuan [19][21]. - The gaming sector's top revenue generators in March 2025 were "Whiteout Survival," "PUBG Mobile," and "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story" [28][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI applications and IP trends, with specific recommendations for companies like Bubble Mart and others in the industry chain [4][41][42]. - It also highlights the gaming sector's recovery and recommends companies such as Kaiying Network and Giant Network [4][41]. - The report advises monitoring the media sector for advertising growth as the economy improves, recommending companies like Focus Media and Mango Super Media [4][41].