国信证券近日发布电力设备新能源行业点评：反内卷政策推动下，聚焦锂电及核心材料 核心材料盈利回升机遇。近年来，锂电池及锂电材料企业产能扩张加速、行业竞争压力加 大，储能电池、磷酸铁锂正极、负极、隔膜等行业大部分企业出现显著亏损。在反内卷持续 推进与价格法修正背景下，伴随行业出清加速与技术迭代推进，市场集中度有望进一步提 升，具备成本与技术优势的头部企业盈利弹性值得期待。 以下为研究报告摘要： 国信电新观点：8月8日，干法锂电池隔膜骨干生产企业负责人闭门座谈会在深圳成功召 开，会议旨在响应、落实国家综合整治"内卷式"竞争相关部署，推动行业健康有序发展。其 中星源材质、恩捷股份、中兴新材、惠强新材、沧州明珠、博盛新材等8家隔膜生产企业代 表参加了本次会议。会上，8家企业达成价格自律、科学释放产能、暂停扩产等多项"反内 卷"共识。 投资建议：反内卷政策推动下，聚焦锂电及核心材料核心材料盈利回升机遇。近年来， 锂电池及锂电材料企业产能扩张加速、行业竞争压力加大，储能电池、磷酸铁锂正极、负 极、隔膜等行业大部分企业出现显著亏损。在反内卷持续推进与价格法修正背景下，伴随行 业出清加速与技术迭代推进，市场集中度有望进一步提升 ...

大家早上壕！ 先看海外要闻： 全球贸易乐观情绪提振投资者信心，同时美国7月CPI数据巩固了市场对美联储9月降息的预期。资金全面涌入风险资产，纳指与标普500均涨超 1%，齐创历史新高。收盘标普500指数涨幅1.13%，道指涨幅1.10%，纳指涨幅1.39%。 罗素小盘股指数飙升3%。Meta涨超3%，收创历史新高。绩后"稳定币第一股"Circle一度涨超15%，但随后回落，仅收涨超1%，盘后发行股票消 息令股价跌超6%；另一美国IPO妖股Coreweave绩后跌超10%。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数收涨1.49%，正业生物收涨超40%，腾讯音乐涨约12%，嘉银科技涨9.35%，奇富科技涨5.38%，小马智行跌3.49%，小鹏跌 6.08%，蔚来跌8.96%。 通胀数据后美债收益率均大跌，随后普遍回升，但2年期仍收跌近3个基点。 美元跌0.47%。黄金宽幅震荡于3350美元附近。 原油收跌，美油较日高下挫近2%。 AI明星公司Perplexity提议，345亿美元收购谷歌旗下Chrome。 英格兰严重缺水已成"国家重大事件"。（新华网） 国内重大事件汇总： 1、财政部等三部门印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》： ...

ICC鑫椤资讯数据显示，2024上半年中国隔膜产量达到了92.4亿平米，同比增长达到20%。不过，由于 恩捷股份等头部企业本轮扩产产能的集中释放，但下游需求不及预期，导致市场供需错配，自2023年以 来，隔膜价格不断下挫。 国信证券认为，近年来，锂电池及锂电材料企业产能扩张加速、行业竞争压力加大，储能电池、磷酸铁 锂正极、负极、隔膜等行业大部分企业出现显著亏损。在反内卷持续推进与价格法修正背景下，伴随行 业出清加速与技术迭代推进，市场集中度有望进一步提升，具备成本与技术优势的头部企业盈利弹性值 得期待。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 据证券时报8月12日报道，近日，干法锂电池隔膜骨干生产企业负责人闭门座谈会在深圳召开，会议旨 在响应、落实国家综合整治"内卷式"竞争相关部署，推动行业健康有序发展。 星源材质、中兴新材、惠强新材、沧州明珠、恩捷股份、博盛新材、天鸿新材、康辉新材8家企业负责 人分别介绍了各自企业2024年全年及2025年上半年生产、销售情况与未来投产计划，并交流了产品成本 构成。 同时，8家企业达成多项重要共识：一是价格自律；二是科学释放产能；三 ...

Group 1 - The meeting of lithium battery dry separator manufacturers in Shenzhen resulted in five key agreements aimed at stabilizing the industry, including price discipline and capacity management [1] - Companies agreed to pause expansion plans for the next two years to focus on optimizing existing capacity due to significant supply-demand imbalance [1] - The meeting is seen as a response to national policies promoting sustainable development and aims to foster a healthy ecosystem within the industry [1] Group 2 - The lithium battery materials industry is facing significant challenges, with major revenue declines reported across key materials: over 40% drop in cathode materials, 20% in electrolytes, 4.5% in anodes, and 11.7% in separators [2] - Approximately half of the 38 listed lithium battery material companies are experiencing losses, with cathode and electrolyte companies reporting negative overall profits [2] - The industry is urged to adhere to quality improvement and avoid price dumping to restore healthy competition and profitability, which is essential for future innovation and development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of key dry lithium battery separator manufacturers in Shenzhen aimed to address the "involution" competition and promote healthy industry development [1][2][3] Industry Overview - The lithium battery separator, a critical component in lithium batteries, has a thickness of only one-tenth of a human hair and accounts for approximately 10% of the battery's cost [2] - The separator industry has experienced rapid growth due to the surge in demand from electric vehicles and energy storage sectors, but irrational capacity expansion has led to oversupply [2][6] - In 2024, the dry separator industry faced severe price wars, with some models dropping below cost, resulting in widespread losses among manufacturers [2][3] Consensus Reached - Eight companies reached several important agreements during the meeting: 1. Price self-discipline to maintain prices above cost for survival 2. Scientific capacity release based on market supply and demand dynamics 3. Suspension of capacity expansion to focus on optimizing existing production 4. Strengthening industry chain cooperation for mutual benefits 5. Acceptance of social supervision to ensure compliance with standards [4][3] Market Data - In 2024, China's lithium battery separator market is expected to reach a shipment volume of 21.73 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 31% [5] - The wet separator shipment volume is projected to exceed 16.88 billion square meters, while dry separator shipments are expected to surpass 4.85 billion square meters [5] - "Chinese separators" are anticipated to account for 91% of the global market share [5] Industry Challenges - The lithium battery separator industry faces intense competition and declining prices due to increased supply and downstream cost control efforts [6] - The China Plastics Processing Industry Association has previously issued initiatives to promote high-quality development and avoid excessive competition [6] Technological Advancements - Companies are shifting focus towards technological innovation and solid-state battery materials to enhance profitability [6][7] - Star Source Materials has established a joint venture for solid-state electrolyte and rigid skeleton membrane development, successfully passing rigorous testing [6] - Enjie Co., another leading separator manufacturer, is also advancing its solid-state battery material development, focusing on lithium sulfide and solid electrolyte membranes [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continued to show rapid year-on-year growth, with production and sales reaching 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% [4]. - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 48.7% in July, up 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, while the cumulative penetration rate for January to July was 45% [4]. - The total battery production in July was 133.8 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 44.3%, while battery sales were 127.2 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [4]. - The demand for power batteries is expected to recover as the traditional peak season for NEVs approaches, driven by the continuous development of renewable energy and the increasing demand for energy storage [4]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Market - In July 2025, NEV sales reached 1.262 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, while the cumulative sales from January to July were 8.232 million units, up 39.2% year-on-year [4]. - Pure electric vehicle sales in July were 811,000 units, up 47.1% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid sales were 451,000 units, up 2.8% year-on-year [4]. Battery Production and Sales - In July, the total battery production was 133.8 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 44.3% [4]. - Power battery sales accounted for 91.1 GWh, representing 71.6% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 45.8% [4]. Export and Market Dynamics - In July, the total battery exports were 23.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, with power battery exports at 14.8 GWh, up 48.4% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in lithium carbonate due to supply expectations and the ongoing development of solid-state battery technology [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the battery and materials sectors that have technological and production advantages, particularly in solid-state electrolytes and new electrode materials [4]. - Key companies to watch include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others that are actively involved in the solid-state battery supply chain [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries in the near to medium term [4][5]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" movement at the national strategic level, focusing on capacity integration in the silicon material segment and strengthening price regulation across the supply chain. The industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, with future policy strength being a key variable influencing its trajectory. In the medium to long term, the photovoltaic sector is expected to enter a phase of high-quality development, with technological upgrades and market structure optimization becoming core competitive factors [4]. - The wind power sector in China has a strong global competitive advantage, with a relatively reasonable supply-demand structure and robust profitability among companies. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for offshore wind power development in China, with accelerated construction and favorable export trends [4]. Weekly Market Review - From August 4 to August 8, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.25% and 0.49%, respectively. The Shenwan Electric Power Equipment Index rose by 1.94%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.71 percentage points. Within sub-sectors, photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment, batteries, and grid equipment experienced changes of +1.29%, +4.50%, +0.99%, and +3.08%, respectively [12][18]. Key Sector Tracking - **Photovoltaic Sector**: The report highlights a significant project where JA Solar is the candidate for a 50MW photovoltaic component procurement project in Tibet, with a bid amount of approximately 36 million CNY and a unit price of 0.7215 CNY/W [3][21]. - **Wind Power Sector**: The report emphasizes the strong profitability of domestic wind power companies in the first half of the year and suggests focusing on leading companies such as Goldwind Technology and Dongfang Cable [4]. Investment Recommendations - **Photovoltaic**: Focus on segments that have undergone sufficient corrections, such as silicon materials, glass, and battery cells. Recommended companies include Aiko Solar, Flat Glass Group, GCL-Poly Energy, and Junda Technology [4]. - **Wind Power**: Maintain a positive outlook on the domestic wind power supply chain, with recommendations for companies like Goldwind Technology and Zhongtian Technology [4]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The sector continues to grow rapidly, with recommendations to focus on battery and structural components benefiting from low upstream raw material prices, including companies like CATL and EVE Energy [5]. Industry Price Data - The report includes price trends for key materials in the photovoltaic supply chain, indicating fluctuations in silicon material, battery cell, and module prices, which are critical for assessing market dynamics [35][36][38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][13] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to a turning point in profitability for the lithium battery industry. The recent acceleration in capacity expansion and increased competition have resulted in significant losses for many companies in the energy storage battery and lithium battery materials sectors. However, with the ongoing push for "anti-involution" and the revision of pricing laws, market concentration is likely to increase, and leading companies with cost and technological advantages are expected to show improved profitability [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Developments - On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft for public consultation regarding the revision of the Price Law, which aims to clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors and regulate market pricing order to combat "involution" competition [2][4]. - A meeting held on July 28 emphasized the need to address eight key areas, including the elimination of overdue payments to enterprises and the consolidation of the "anti-involution" efforts in the new energy vehicle sector [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the lithium battery sector are likely to see stable improvements in profitability due to the "anti-involution" backdrop. Companies to watch include Wanrun New Energy, Hunan Youneng, CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Zhongxin Innovation, Tianci Materials, New Zobon, Putailai, Keda Li, Enjie, and Xingyuan Materials [3][7]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts for several companies, indicating expected net profits in billions of RMB for 2024A to 2026E, with notable companies like CATL projected to achieve a net profit of 507.4 billion RMB in 2024A [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the 31st week of 2025 (July 28 - August 3), domestic passenger car and new energy passenger car sales increased week - on - week. Passenger car retail sales were 465,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%; new energy passenger car retail sales were 247,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, with a penetration rate of 53.1%. Since the beginning of the year, cumulative passenger car retail sales were 12.563 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%; cumulative new energy passenger car retail sales were 6.407 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%, with a cumulative penetration rate of 51.0% [2][110][118]. - The China Passenger Car Association slightly raised the full - year forecast for 2025. It is expected that passenger car retail sales will reach 24.35 million units, a 6% increase, with the forecast volume 300,000 units more than the June forecast; passenger car exports will be 5.46 million units, a 14% increase, with the forecast volume 160,000 units higher than the initial forecast; new energy passenger car wholesale will be 15.48 million units, a 27% increase, with the forecast volume slightly down from the June forecast, and the new energy wholesale penetration rate will reach 56%; automobile wholesale will be 34.04 million units, an 8% increase, with the forecast volume 5 percentage points higher than the initial forecast [2][108][118]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Key Target Tracking - The report presents the weekly price changes of relevant sectors and listed companies. For example, among listed companies, Great Wall Motor (601633.SH) had a weekly increase of 3.00%, while BYD (002594.SZ) had a weekly decrease of 1.77% [16]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Tracking 3.2.1. China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: Charts show the sales (seasonal), penetration rate, domestic sales (seasonal), exports (seasonal), and sales of EV and PHV in the Chinese new energy vehicle market [17][22][24]. - **Inventory Changes**: Charts display the monthly new inventory of new energy passenger vehicle channels and manufacturers [26]. - **Delivery Volume of New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers**: Charts present the monthly delivery volumes of several new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, etc. [29][33][35]. 3.2.2. Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: Charts show the sales (by region), penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in the global new energy vehicle market [41][44]. - **European Market**: Charts present the sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in the European new energy vehicle market, as well as the sales of EV and PHV in the UK, Germany, and France [46][49][50]. - **North American Market**: Charts show the sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in the North American new energy vehicle market [59][60]. - **Other Regions**: Charts display the sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in other regions, including Japan, South Korea, and Thailand [62][63][67]. 3.2.3. Power Battery Industry Chain - Charts show the power battery loading volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of battery cells, cell material cost, and the operating rates and prices of various battery materials such as ternary materials, precursors, lithium iron phosphate, etc. [78][82][83]. 3.2.4. Other Upstream Raw Materials - Charts present the daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum [102][104]. 3.3. Hot News Summary 3.3.1. China: Policy Dynamics - The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to build a number of national carbon measurement centers by 2030, with priority given to the carbon measurement needs of key industries such as power batteries [108]. 3.3.2. China: Industry Dynamics - The China Passenger Car Association slightly raised the full - year forecast for 2025, including the increase in passenger car retail, exports, and automobile wholesale, and a slight decrease in new energy passenger car wholesale forecast [108]. - In July, the new energy wholesale sales were 1.18 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25%, and the cumulative wholesale from January to July was 7.63 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [109]. - From July 1 - 31, new energy retail sales increased by 14% year - on - year, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year increased by 30% year - on - year [110]. - From January to June, the domestic charging infrastructure increment was 3.282 million units, a year - on - year increase of 99.2%, and the vehicle - to - charging - pile increment ratio was 1.8:1 [111]. 3.3.3. China: Enterprise Dynamics - Sunwoda plans to list in Hong Kong and build a new production base in Vietnam with a total investment of no more than RMB 2 billion [113]. - Leapmotor's first batch of electric SUVs arrived in Brazil [114]. 3.3.4. Overseas: Policy Dynamics - Russia will allocate 5.7 billion rubles from 2025 - 2027 to develop electric vehicle charging infrastructure, aiming to have 28,000 DC charging stations with an output power over 149kW in operation by 2030 [114]. 3.3.5. Overseas: Industry Dynamics - In the UK, July passenger car sales decreased by 5.0% to 140,000 units, while pure - electric and plug - in hybrid vehicles increased by 9.1% and 33.0% respectively [115]. - In Germany, July passenger car sales increased by 11.1% to 265,000 units, with pure - electric and plug - in hybrid vehicles increasing by 58.0% and 83.6% respectively [116]. - In Brazil, July new car sales increased by 0.8% to 243,000 units, with pure - electric and plug - in hybrid vehicles increasing by 48.2% and 22.3% respectively [116]. 3.4. Industry Views - Similar to the core views, it emphasizes the sales situation in the 31st week of 2025 and the adjustment of the full - year forecast by the China Passenger Car Association [118]. 3.5. Investment Suggestions - The penetration rate of the Chinese new energy vehicle market exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% since 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products continue to be launched, and price wars are gradually halted. Overseas, due to strong trade protectionism in Europe and the US, there are risks in exports. Attention should be paid to new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East. In terms of the competitive landscape, domestic independent brands' market share continues to expand, and attention should be paid to companies with strong product capabilities, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply [3][119].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in China's lithium battery separator shipments, with a projected volume of approximately 13.3 billion square meters in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.6% [2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The total shipment of lithium battery separators in China for 2025H1 is estimated at 13.3 billion square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 47.6% [2]. - Among the shipments, wet-process separators account for 10.95 billion square meters, making up 82.3% of the total, while dry-process separators contribute 2.35 billion square meters, or 17.7% [2]. - The share of wet-process separators has increased by 11.1% compared to the previous year, primarily due to the rising penetration of 314Ah cells in the energy storage sector, which are better suited for wet-process separators [2]. Group 2: Market Leaders - The top 10 companies in China's lithium battery separator shipments for 2025H1 are as follows: 1. SEMCORP (恩捷股份) 2. Xingyuan Material (星源材质) 3. Jinli (金力股份) 4. China National Materials (中材科技) 5. Housheng New Energy (厚生新能源) 6. Kanghui New Materials (康辉新材) 7. Huiqiang New Energy (惠强新能源) 8. Zhongxing New Materials (中兴新材) 9. Cangzhou Mingzhu (沧州明珠) 10. Putailai (璞泰来) [3].