基础化工行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 中东变局对化工：短中长期三维影响 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 中东冲突局势变化；需求不及预期；假设条件变化影响测算结果 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 31 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 万里扬 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | | | wanliyang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 短期，TACO 难改供给应缺口：中东冲突最直接的影响就是霍尔木兹海峡通行中断 后，造成石化原料的供给缺失。尽管冲突至今，特朗普多次以所谓的"TACO"对 原油价格施加影响，但供给的硬缺口并没有因此发生改变。 各国在安全诉求下，被 迫扭曲经济性，导致炼厂 ...

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 ⚫ 中东冲突局势变化；需求不及预期；假设条件变化影响测算结果 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 31 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 万里扬 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | | | wanliyang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 短期，TACO 难改供给应缺口：中东冲突最直接的影响就是霍尔木兹海峡通行中断 后，造成石化原料的供给缺失。尽管冲突至今，特朗普多次以所谓的"TACO"对 原油价格施加影响，但供给的硬缺口并没有因此发生改变。 各国在安全诉求下，被 迫扭曲经济性，导致炼厂压减负荷时，化工部分受到影响更大，价格上涨也更多。 后续在冲突局势没有明朗 ...

证券代码：300596 证券简称：利安隆 公告编号：2026-005 天津利安隆新材料股份有限公司 关于设立全资子公司并由其投资建设马来西亚研发生产基地的 进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、对外投资事项概述 天津利安隆新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 2 月 24 日 召开公司第四届董事会第十八次会议和第四届监事会第十六次会议，审议通过了 《关于设立全资子公司并由其投资建设马来西亚研发生产基地的议案》。根据《深 圳证券交易所创业板股票上市规则》及《公司章程》的相关规定，本次投资事项 已经公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会审议通过，同意公司在新加坡设立全资子 公司，并通过新加坡子公司在马来西亚设立全资子公司，最终以马来西亚公司为 项目主体投资建设研发生产基地，用于研发生产高分子材料抗老化添加剂、润滑 油功能添加剂等产品，并同意授权公司管理层办理与本次投资建设研发生产基地 事项相关事宜，包括但不限于投资相关的登记备案、子公司及下属公司的设立及 资产购置、相关合同及协议的签订、中介机构的聘请等内容。具体内容详见公司 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [56]. Core Insights - In January 2026, global semiconductor sales reached $82.5 billion, marking a 46.1% increase compared to January 2025 and a 3.7% increase from December 2025 [4][31]. - The semiconductor price increase trend continues, with major foundries planning to raise prices by up to 10% starting in April 2026 due to rising production costs driven by various factors including supply chain disruptions and raw material price hikes [30]. - The domestic manufacturing upgrade is ongoing, with high standards and high-performance material demands expected to be released gradually, indicating a rapid development potential for the new materials industry [4]. Market Overview - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 5900.37 points, up 0.87% week-on-week. Among the six sub-industries, the semiconductor materials index fell by 2.79%, while the carbon fiber index rose by 26.05% [3][11]. - The top five gainers in the week included Ruifeng High Materials (25.52%), Lianrui New Materials (21.33%), and Huate Gas (15.49%) [26][27]. Recent Industry Highlights - The launch of the full-size humanoid robot PEEK by Huaxiang Qiyuan represents a breakthrough in lightweight, high-endurance, and durable applications, reducing the robot's weight by 5.3 kg [4][35]. - Feikai Materials announced plans to invest in a new production base in Anhui, with a total investment of approximately 1 billion yuan, aimed at expanding its semiconductor materials strategy [35][36].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [55]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in memory costs, leading to the prediction that "entry-level" PCs will disappear by 2028 due to rising prices and a shortage of DRAM memory affecting the PC industry more than others [4][29]. - The report notes that several companies, including Japan's Toray and Evonik, will increase prices for their products due to the inability to absorb the impact of currency fluctuations and rising raw material costs [4][33]. - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing rapid domestic production acceleration, with major companies expected to maximize their industry benefits [4]. Market Overview - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 5849.59 points, down 5.28% week-on-week. The semiconductor materials index fell by 8.97%, while the display device materials index decreased by 3.12% [3][11]. - The report lists the top gainers and losers in the market, with companies like Hongbai New Materials and Sanxiang New Materials showing significant gains, while companies like Boqian New Materials and Dongcai Technology faced substantial losses [25][26]. Recent Industry Trends - Gartner's report indicates that PC shipments are expected to decline by 10.4% by 2026, surpassing the decline in the smartphone market, as manufacturers struggle to meet the demand for budget-friendly gaming hardware [4][30]. - Companies are responding to rising costs by adjusting prices, with Dow Chemical announcing a price increase of 5% to 15% for its products starting March 27, 2026 [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-performance materials in driving industry upgrades and innovations, suggesting that the new materials industry is poised for rapid growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1][28]. Core Insights - The global chemical industry is entering a significant upward cycle driven by anti-involution and AI demand, with China's leading companies benefiting from solid cost and efficiency advantages. The industry is expected to see a substantial increase in free cash flow as capacity expansion slows, transforming companies from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones. The upcoming peak season for chemicals is anticipated to enhance profitability, making it crucial to focus on demand, value, and supply dynamics for investment opportunities [3][28]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - As of March 5, 2026, the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index stands at 99.35, reflecting a 5.16 increase from February 26, 2026 [1]. Performance Metrics - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 7.4% over the past month, 23.6% over the past three months, and 50.8% over the past year [4]. Investment Opportunities 1. **Value-Driven Opportunities**: Potential for increased dividend yields in sectors such as coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical), oil refining (e.g., Hengli Petrochemical, Sinopec), pesticides (e.g., Yangnong Chemical), and potassium fertilizers (e.g., Salt Lake Industry) [3]. 2. **Supply-Driven Opportunities**: Focus on domestic anti-involution policies and European capacity exits, with key players including PTA/Polyester (e.g., Xinfengming, Tongkun), glyphosate and organosilicon (e.g., Xingfa Group), and industrial silicon (e.g., Hoshine Silicon) [6]. 3. **Demand-Driven Opportunities**: Highlighting sectors benefiting from large-scale opportunities, including gas turbines (e.g., Zhenhua Group), refrigerants (e.g., Juhua), and energy storage (e.g., Chuanheng) [6]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - The report tracks several key companies with their respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 to 2026, indicating a positive outlook for many, including Dongfang Shenghong, Hubei Yihua, and Wanhua Chemical [29]. Market Observations - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are likely to drive oil prices higher, benefiting companies like China National Petroleum and CNOOC, while also increasing costs for petrochemical products [9][13]. Price Trends - Recent price increases have been observed in various chemical products, including MDI and TDI, with significant upward movements in raw material costs due to geopolitical events [14][18]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is positioned for a favorable outlook, driven by structural changes in supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on companies that can leverage these trends for growth and profitability [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is expected to drive up prices for methanol, ethylene glycol, and urea, with a comprehensive price increase anticipated for chemical products after the holiday [4]. - The report highlights the impact of differentiated electricity pricing in Shaanxi, which may accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities and improve industry dynamics [4]. - The overall capital expenditure in the chemical sector is at its peak, with low inventory levels in the supply chain, suggesting a favorable environment for price increases as downstream production resumes post-holiday [4]. Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between $60 and $75 per barrel due to delayed OPEC+ production increases and stable demand recovery [5]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level in the medium to long term, while natural gas costs may decrease as the US accelerates its export facility construction [5]. - The report notes that the January PPI for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [7]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on four main areas for investment: 1. Textile and apparel chain, benefiting from high demand growth and improved supply dynamics [4]. 2. Agricultural chemicals, with stable fertilizer demand and increasing transgenic penetration supporting long-term pesticide demand [4]. 3. Export-related chemical products, as overseas inventories are at historical lows and interest rates are expected to decline [4]. 4. "Anti-involution" policies leading to accelerated clearance of outdated capacities in various sectors [4]. Key Material Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, as well as in lithium battery and fluorine materials [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].

Core Insights - The chemical industry is at the beginning of a new prosperity cycle globally, with Chinese chemical companies showing stronger profit foundations and elasticity due to past expansions and capital expenditures [5][11][29] - Focus on cyclical chemical products, particularly those with resource attributes and potential in the real estate chain [4][5] - The demand from major economies like China and the US is expected to improve, with China's GDP projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, growing at 5.0% year-on-year [5][22] Group 1: Global and Domestic Chemical Landscape - The global chemical landscape is improving, with China's chemical sector becoming more resilient [9][12] - China's share of the global chemical market has significantly increased from 13% in 2004 to 47% in 2024, indicating its growing importance in the global chemical industry [14][29] - The capital expenditure in the global chemical sector has paused, with many overseas chemical companies reducing production, which may benefit Chinese companies [14][16] Group 2: Resource Attributes in Chemical Products - Three main resource directions are emphasized: mineral resources (like phosphate and potash), indicator resources (such as pesticides and refrigerants), and channel resources (like compound fertilizers) [5][33] - China's phosphate reserves rank second globally, with a steady increase in demand driven by both traditional fertilizer needs and emerging sectors like lithium iron phosphate for batteries [33][36] - The supply of fertilizers is expected to contract in 2025, with production of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate projected to decrease by 6.73% and 6.86% respectively [39] Group 3: Real Estate Chain Chemical Products - The market currently has low expectations for the recovery of demand in the real estate chain, but there is potential for significant improvement due to government stimulus policies [5][22] - The supply concentration of chemical products related to the real estate chain is gradually increasing, which may lead to faster and easier supply-demand improvements [5] Group 4: New Materials and Domestic Substitution - The report highlights the importance of domestic substitution and the development of new materials in line with China's strategic plans for emerging industries [7][8] - Key areas of focus include lubricating oil additives, semiconductor materials, and bio-based materials [7] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies for investment include Hualu Chemical, Xin Fengming, Yuntianhua, and others, focusing on those with strong market positions and innovative capabilities [7][8]

Group 1 - The company has received inquiries regarding the progress of its lubricant oil API certification, which was previously expected to be completed in the first quarter [1] - The company confirmed that the API certification for lubricant additives involves multiple product categories, and some categories have already completed the certification [1]