交银国际研究 公司更新 | 科技 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 80.15 | 人民币 | 86.00↓ | +7.3% | | | 卓胜微 (300782 CH) | | | | | | | 利润压力高于预期，下调至中性；期待 2H25 后利润回升 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 300782 CH 深证成指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 117.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 59.10 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 42,844.18 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 5.13 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (10.65) | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 89.92 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Neutral" from "Buy" due to higher-than-expected profit pressure and competitive challenges in the RF front-end market [7][12][13]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant profit pressure, particularly from its new chip production line, which has led to a forecasted decline in net profit for 2024 and 2025. The management anticipates a recovery in profits in the second half of 2025 as production stabilizes [7][8]. - The report highlights opportunities in low-power short-range communication products driven by generative AI and the upcoming WiFi-7 standard, although competition remains a concern [7][8]. - Revenue and EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards, reflecting the increased cost pressures and competitive landscape [7][9]. Financial Overview - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,378 million RMB, with a growth rate of 19.1%. However, growth is expected to slow significantly in 2024 to 2.5% [6][14]. - Net profit is expected to decline sharply to 402 million RMB in 2024, down from 1,122 million RMB in 2023, with further declines to 348 million RMB in 2025 [6][14]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected revenues of 4,862 million RMB for 2025 and 6,019 million RMB for 2026, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.65 RMB and 1.86 RMB [6][9][14]. Market Performance - The stock price closed at 80.15 RMB with a target price of 86.00 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 7.3% [1][12]. - The company has faced a significant drop in stock performance, with a year-to-date change of -10.65% [4][8]. Competitive Landscape - The management acknowledges challenges from both international and domestic competitors, particularly in the RF front-end market, which is impacting the company's market share and pricing power [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product diversification and the potential for new product lines to maintain production capacity and competitiveness [7][8].

Summary of the Conference Call for 卓胜微 Company Overview - The conference call discusses 卓胜微, a company focused on integrated design, research and development, processes, devices, and materials in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the RF front-end market [3][4]. Key Financial Performance - In 2024, 卓胜微 achieved total revenue of 4.487 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.48% [3][4]. - Net profit decreased by 64.2% to 402 million yuan, with a gross margin of 39.49%, down approximately seven percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased investment in the 新洲 project and intense market competition [3][4]. Research and Development - R&D investment for 2024 was 999 million yuan, accounting for about 22% of revenue, with 142 new patents granted, primarily in RF filter products [3][5]. - Fixed assets increased by 3.375 billion yuan, with depreciation changing by 569 million yuan, and depreciation is expected to continue rising in 2025 due to new production lines coming online [5]. Production Capacity and Projects - The 新洲 project includes both 6-inch and 12-inch production lines, both of which have achieved stable mass production capabilities [6]. - The 6-inch line produces RF devices such as duplexers and quadplexers, while the 12-inch line has begun mass production of IPD process products, RF switches, and low-noise amplifiers, with a monthly capacity of 5,000 wafers [6][13]. Advanced Packaging and Product Development - The advanced packaging production line focuses on heterogeneous integration modular solutions, utilizing 3D stacking technology, with some products already validated by customers [7]. - The PMO series products have entered mass production, and the WiFi 7 module products are expected to perform well in sales in 2025 [8]. Future Directions and Market Trends - 卓胜微 is actively expanding into MCU and UWB short-range communication chips, aiming to create a SOC chip technology system for short-range communication [9][10]. - The company anticipates a wave of upgrades driven by AI technology in the smartphone market in the second half of the year [18]. - The impact of low Earth orbit satellites on RF demand is recognized, with the company prepared to leverage its high-frequency millimeter-wave technology [19]. Challenges and Strategic Responses - The company faces challenges from patent harassment primarily from overseas companies, particularly from Japan and the US, and is taking measures to mitigate litigation risks [25][26]. - The potential impact of US sanctions on Chinese companies is acknowledged, with 卓胜微 preparing for possible supply chain disruptions [20]. Conclusion - 卓胜微 is positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in AI and communication technologies while navigating competitive and regulatory challenges in the semiconductor industry. The focus on R&D, production capacity expansion, and strategic partnerships will be crucial for future growth and market positioning [3][10][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 93.4 RMB [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.487 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 64.2% to 402 million RMB due to increased module revenue share, production line depreciation, and market competition [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from an increase in market share for filter modules and the ramp-up of LPAMiD products in 2025, although gross margins may continue to be pressured by production line depreciation [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 4.487 billion RMB, slightly below the expected 4.564 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 39.49%, down 6.96 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.119 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4%, with a net loss of 24 million RMB [1][2]. Market Outlook - For 2025, the company is projected to see revenue growth driven by increased market share in filter modules and the mass production of LPAMiD products, with the global Android smartphone shipment expected to grow by 2.5% [3][4]. - The company’s self-developed RF switches and low-noise amplifiers have entered mass production, enhancing its competitive advantage [3]. Investment Recommendations - The target price is set at 93.4 RMB, reflecting a 10x price-to-sales ratio based on 2025 estimates, with expected revenues of 4.995 billion RMB in 2025, 5.851 billion RMB in 2026, and 6.739 billion RMB in 2027 [4][6]. - The report indicates that the company remains a leader in the domestic RF industry, with a solid foundation in receiving end products and a gradually improving layout in the transmitting end [4].

去年四季度卓胜微创下上市以来单季度净利润首次亏损。 整体来看，卓胜微的射频模组收入增长，填补了射频分立器件的收入下滑，维持全年营业收入微增，但 这两项业务的毛利率均同比下滑，导致净利润承压。报告期内，卓胜微的射频分立器件实现营收25.09 亿元，同比减少7.57%，射频模组实现营收18.87亿元，同比增长18.58%；其他业务收入为9132.08万 元。 半导体周期回暖之际，卓胜微（300782.SZ）的业绩表现仍差强人意，去年公司的毛利率持续下滑，净 利润创下上市以来最低。 近日，卓胜微发布2024年年报，报告期内，公司实现营业收入44.87亿元，同比增长2.48%；归母净利润 4.02亿元，同比减少64.2%，利润规模与同比增速均为上市以来最低值，同时公司四季度净利润亏损， 系上市后首亏。 卓胜微的业绩与智能手机出货量关系密切，创新性不足的智能手机2024年以来呈现弱复苏，消费者换机 意愿较低。弱复苏背景下，卓胜微全年营业收入实现微幅增长，射频前端分立器件与射频模组的毛利率 下滑是净利润下滑的原因之一，射频模组销售占比有一定提升。 目前，射频前端领域的大部分市场份额由海外大厂占据，国产厂商主要集中在中低端 ...

江苏卓胜微电子股份有限公司 审计报告及财务报表 二〇二四年度 江苏卓胜微电子股份有限公司 审计报告及财务报表 （2024 年 01 月 01 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止） | | 目录 | 页次 | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、 | 审计报告 | 1-5 | | 二、 | 财务报表 | | | | 合并资产负债表和母公司资产负债表 | 1-4 | | | 合并利润表和母公司利润表 | 5-6 | | | 合并现金流量表和母公司现金流量表 | 7-8 | | | 合并所有者权益变动表和母公司所有者权益变动表 | 9-12 | | | 财务报表附注 | 1-100 | 审计报告 信会师报字[2025]第 ZA10441 号 江苏卓胜微电子股份有限公司全体股东： 一、 审计意见 我们审计了江苏卓胜微电子股份有限公司（以下简称卓胜微）财 务报表，包括 2024 年 12 月 31 日的合并及母公司资产负债表，2024 年度的合并及母公司利润表、合并及母公司现金流量表、合并及母公 司所有者权益变动表以及相关财务报表附注。 我们认为，后附的财务报表在所有重大方面按照企业会计准则的 规定编 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024, but significant declines in net profit and cash flow, indicating potential challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating income of 4.487 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.48% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 401.83 million yuan, a decrease of 64.2% compared to the previous year [4]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 363.55 million yuan, down 66.8% year-on-year [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 80.28 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 95.76% [4]. - Basic earnings per share were 0.7522 yuan, a drop of 64.23% from the previous year [4]. Asset and Equity Position - Total assets at the end of 2024 reached 14.23 billion yuan, an increase of 29.89% from the end of 2023 [4]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders were 10.20 billion yuan, up 4.04% year-on-year [4]. Market and Product Development - The company has been focusing on the semiconductor industry, particularly in enhancing market coverage and penetration of RF modules, which increased from 36.34% in 2023 to 42.05% in 2024 [5]. - The company is advancing its "Smart Manufacturing" resource platform and has successfully scaled production of RF front-end products on its own production lines [5][6]. - Future plans include creating a comprehensive RF technology resource platform and expanding into more downstream application segments to enhance competitive differentiation [6].

2021年2月，卓胜微向特定对象发行A股股票募集资金。经中国证券监督管理委员会证监许可[2020]3601 号《关于同意江苏卓胜微电子股份有限公司向特定对象发行股票注册的批复》，公司向特定对象发行人 民币普通股(A股)股票5,311,544股，每股发行价格为565.85元，募集资金总额300,553.72万元。扣除各项 发行费用(不含增值税)人民币3,506.28万元，实际募集资金净额为人民币297,047.44万元。以上募集资金 已由立信会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)于2021年1月25日审验并出具信会师报字[2021]第ZA10068号《验 资报告》确认。目前公司股价低于增发价。 公司经本次董事会审议通过的利润分配预案为：以534,547,532股为基数，向全体股东每10股派发现金红 利1.02元(含税)，送红股0股(含税)，以资本公积金向全体股东每10股转增0股。 2019年6月18日，卓胜微在深交所创业板上市，公开发行新股数量2500万股，发行价格为35.29元/股， 保荐人(主承销商)为中国国际金融股份有限公司，保荐代表人为章志皓、李天怡。 卓胜微首次公开发行股票募集资金总额为88,225.00万元， ...

外资态度来看，本期较上一季度持股减少的外资基金共计1个，即香港中央结算有限公司，持股减少占 比达1.55%。 2025年3月31日，卓胜微(300782.SZ)发布2024年年度报告。截至2025年3月30日，共有249个机构投资者 披露持有卓胜微A股股份，合计持股量达1.51亿股，占卓胜微总股本的28.30%。其中，前十大机构投资 者包括无锡汇智联合投资企业(有限合伙)、南通金信灏嘉投资中心(有限合伙)、香港中央结算有限公 司、天津浔渡创业投资合伙企业(有限合伙)、中国工商银行股份有限公司-易方达创业板交易型开放式指 数证券投资基金、中国工商银行股份有限公司-华泰柏瑞沪深300交易型开放式指数证券投资基金、易方 达沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、国泰CES半导体芯片行业ETF、万家自主创新混合A，前十大机构投 资者合计持股比例达24.14%。相较于上一季度，前十大机构持股比例合计下跌了3.76个百分点。 公募基金方面，本期较上一期持股增加的公募基金共计5个，包括万家自主创新混合A、易方达创业板 ETF、国泰中证全指集成电路ETF、嘉实中证全指集成电路ETF、平安300ETF联接A，持股增加占比小 幅 ...

2、多只龙头宽基ETF披露2024年年报，中央汇金的持仓动向随之曝光。以持有ETF总市值计算， 截至2024年末，中央汇金投资有限责任公司持有ETF总 市值为6616.97亿元，中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司持有ETF总市值为3821.84亿元，两家公司合计持有ETF总市值突破万亿元。 3、银行消费贷利率或将迎来重要变化。 部分股份行、国有大行地方分行人士透露，接到总行通知称，消费贷利率4月起上调，3%以下产品或被叫停。 今 年消费贷市场竞争激烈，个别银行产品利率低至2.4%，近期多家银行密集跟进政策举措，"松绑"相应消费贷产品。 // 热点聚焦 // 1、 交通银行、中国银行、建设银行和邮储银行齐齐发布公告称，董事会通过了向特定对象发行A股股票的议案，并对外发布关于财政部战略投资该行的 公告。财政部将以现金方式认购中国银行、建设银行全部新发行股份，并包揽交通银行、邮储银行超过九成的新发行股份，合计出资规模达5000亿元。 四家银行此番集中公告意味着财政部发行特别国债补充大行资本落地在即。交行特别指出，本次发行完成后，财政部持股比例超过30%，将成为该行控股 股东。而在本次发行完成前，交行无控股股东、实际控制人 ...