本次中美大幅降低双边关税水平，符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，有利于中美两国经贸往来，有利于 全球经济。 中美关税冲突缓和，A股市场积极反应。 截至5月14日午间收盘，Wind海运指数（886027.WI）大涨3.82%，在Wind中国行业指数中涨幅排名第 一。 板块个股中，国航远洋（833171.BJ）涨24.84%、华光源海（872351.BJ）涨13.69%。宁波海运 （600798.SH）、宁波远洋（601022.SH）、中远海发（601866.SH）、锦江航运（601083.SH）。 在港口方面，南京港（002040.SZ）、连云港（601008.SH）等涨停。其中，宁波海运、宁波远洋、南京 港已连续两日涨停。 另外，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约盘中大涨逾15%，升至1700点关口上方，创一个月来的高位。 5月14日，Wind海运指数（886027.WI）大幅上涨，截止午间收盘涨幅达到3.82%，在Wind中国行业指数 中涨幅排名第一。另外，多只航运、港口个股涨停。 在互动平台上，多家上市公司回应了双方关税下调的短期影响。同时，不少上市公司也提醒，中美双方 的关税政策仍处于波动之中，长远应对之策才是重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Miao Exhibition (300795), reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, while emphasizing its strategic focus on digital transformation and international market expansion, particularly in the context of the global exhibition industry recovery post-pandemic [2][8]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 751 million yuan and a net profit of 163 million yuan [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a significant decline in revenue to 17.27 million yuan, down 77.32% year-on-year, and a net loss of 36.79 million yuan [14]. Industry Trends - The global exhibition market is showing signs of recovery, with a 16% increase in revenue compared to 2019 levels, indicating a full recovery and growth beyond pre-pandemic figures [3][7]. - The company noted a shift in the outbound exhibition landscape, with a growing emphasis on investment-driven market expansion rather than solely trade [2][7]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a leading position in digital exhibition capabilities, leveraging AI and big data to enhance customer engagement and operational efficiency [4][5]. - It possesses a unique overseas self-organized exhibition platform, which is crucial for promoting Chinese brands in international markets [4][5]. Strategic Focus - The company is concentrating on three main areas: Miao Exhibition, Miao Technology, and Miao Investment, with a strong emphasis on upgrading the exhibition segment through digitalization and specialization [5][8]. - The strategic shift from general exhibitions to specialized exhibitions is aimed at enhancing the quality and effectiveness of its offerings [8][12]. Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its presence in emerging markets, particularly along the Belt and Road Initiative, BRICS countries, and RCEP regions, which are seen as key growth drivers [7][12]. - In 2024, the company successfully hosted 14 exhibitions across nine countries, attracting over 7,500 participating enterprises [8][12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the exhibition industry will continue to evolve towards greater integration of technology, internationalization, and sustainability, with a focus on customized exhibition solutions [7][8]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and changes in trade policies are prompting the company to diversify its market strategies and reduce reliance on the U.S. market [6][7].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 751.36 million RMB, a decrease of 10.01% year-on-year [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 155.17 million RMB, down 17.55% compared to the previous year [11] - The basic earnings per share were 0.68 RMB, with a weighted average return on equity of 24.39% [11] Market Trends and Strategic Insights - The global exhibition market is recovering, with average revenue in 2024 increasing by 16% compared to 2019 [5][9] - The number of institutions organizing exhibitions abroad in China rose to 53 in 2024, a 43.24% increase from the previous year [3] - The company’s revenue growth from 2019 to 2024 was 76%, significantly outperforming the global exhibition industry [5] Competitive Advantages - The company has a leading position in digital exhibition transformation, leveraging AI and big data for enhanced marketing and customer engagement [5] - It operates the only global self-organized exhibition platform in China, enhancing its brand influence internationally [5] - The company has established a strong overseas support system with over 100 employees in various countries, enhancing its competitive edge [5] Business Development Strategy - The company focuses on three main sectors: exhibition services, technology, and investment, with a strategic emphasis on upgrading the exhibition segment [6][7] - It has transitioned from general exhibitions to specialized exhibitions, enhancing its service offerings and operational efficiency [11] - The company is actively expanding into emerging markets, particularly along the "Belt and Road" initiative, BRICS countries, and RCEP [16] Future Outlook and Challenges - The company anticipates challenges from geopolitical tensions and changing trade policies, particularly from the new U.S. government [9] - It plans to diversify its market presence to reduce reliance on the U.S. market, focusing on new growth opportunities in emerging markets [9] - The exhibition industry is expected to evolve towards more technology-driven, sustainable, and integrated solutions [9] Shareholder Returns and Policies - The company has a stable cash dividend policy, with plans to distribute 3.50 RMB per share to shareholders [17] - It has consistently implemented capital reserve transfers to increase share capital over the past three years [4]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 750 million, a year-on-year decline of 10.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million, down 17.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 330 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million, down 18.3% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant revenue drop to 20 million, a year-on-year decline of 77.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders turning negative at -40 million [1][2] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The overseas exhibition industry in China faced dual pressures in 2024, including cautious decision-making by Chinese enterprises and a decrease in government subsidies [2] - The number of overseas exhibition organizers has significantly increased, contributing to the challenging external environment [2] - The company organized 97 overseas exhibitions in 2024, covering nearly 300,000 square meters, ranking first among overseas exhibition organizers in China [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth from 1.01 billion in 2025 to 1.43 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.2%, 19.4%, and 19.2% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 260 million in 2025 to 390 million in 2027, with growth rates of 66.8%, 22.6%, and 22.0% respectively [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its leading growth potential and development stage [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The tourism volume is increasing while prices remain stable, with an extended travel radius. The focus is on policy support and advancements in AI applications [3] Summary by Sections Market Review - In April, the social service sector outperformed the benchmark by 1.42 percentage points, with strong performance from tourism and education stocks. The A-share scenic spots and leading education stocks led the gains, while Hong Kong stocks in the supply chain and tea beverage sectors also performed well [3][4][6] May Day Holiday Summary - Domestic spending during the holiday increased by 8.0%, with travel willingness remaining high and an extended travel radius. A total of 314 million domestic trips were made, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The average spending per person increased by 1.5%, recovering to 90% of the 2019 level [3][9] Sub-Industries - **Inbound and Outbound Travel**: Inbound travel increased by 28.7% during the holiday, with significant growth in travelers from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and foreign visitors. The number of inbound foreign visitors under visa-free policies grew by 72.7% [3][21] - **Hotel Industry**: The hotel industry saw a REVPAR of 192 yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year, with occupancy rates and average daily rates also increasing. High-star hotels in county areas outperformed the overall industry [24][22] - **Scenic Spots**: Many scenic spots experienced significant visitor growth, aided by favorable weather and local government promotional activities. For example, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism received 51.79% more visitors compared to last year [25][28] - **Dining**: Key monitored dining enterprises saw sales increase by 8.7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [29][30] - **Duty-Free Sales**: Duty-free shopping during the holiday saw a decline of 7% in sales, but the average spending per person remained stable [41][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies benefiting from policy support and marginal improvements, including Tongcheng Travel, Xueda Education, Jiuhua Tourism, and others. Mid-term recommendations include China Duty Free, Meituan, Huazhu Group, and others [3][42]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 751 million yuan and net profit at 155 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 10.01% and 17.55% respectively [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant drop in revenue and net profit, with figures of 17.27 million yuan and -36.79 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 77.32% and 864.17% respectively [1][2] Performance Analysis - The decline in 2024 performance is attributed to high base effects from 2023, which was a year of strong recovery post-pandemic, and cautious spending by exporters due to macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - The company did not hold its own exhibitions in Q1 2025, leading to a substantial revenue drop compared to the previous year when it hosted exhibitions in Indonesia and Vietnam [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in VIP customer repurchase rates, projected to reach 60% for 2025, up from 36% at the end of Q1 2025, indicating strong customer recognition of the company's exhibition effectiveness [3] - The company plans to hold six self-organized exhibitions in Q2 2025, compared to four in the same period last year, suggesting a potential turnaround in performance [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively integrating AI into its exhibition services, launching "AI Exhibition 1.0" which includes various AI applications aimed at enhancing efficiency in exhibition scenarios [4] - The company is also participating in strategic financing for Li Weike Technology to accelerate the development of AI technologies, indicating a commitment to innovation in the exhibition industry [4] Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 1.06 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.58 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 270 million, 370 million, and 430 million yuan [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 1.18, 1.60, and 1.86 yuan for the years 2025-2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure but is expected to see a performance turning point in the future [1][5] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 751 million yuan and 155 million yuan, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 10.01% and 17.55% [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with figures of 17.27 million yuan and -36.79 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 77.32% and 864.17% [2][4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company reported its performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating a decline in both revenue and net profit due to high base effects and cautious spending from exporters [2][3] Analysis and Judgment - The decline in 2024 performance is attributed to two main factors: the high base from 2023, which saw significant growth due to post-pandemic demand, and a cautious outlook from exporters affecting their exhibition spending [3] - The revenue drop in Q1 2025 is primarily due to the adjustment of the exhibition schedule, with no self-hosted exhibitions held in that quarter compared to two in the same period last year [4] Future Expectations - The expected VIP customer repurchase rate for 2025 is projected to reach 60%, significantly higher than the previous year's rate, indicating strong customer recognition of the company's exhibition effectiveness [5] - The company plans to host six self-organized exhibitions in Q2 2025, up from four in the same period last year, suggesting a potential performance recovery [5] AI and New Growth Points - The company is actively integrating AI into its exhibition services, launching "AI Exhibition 1.0" to enhance efficiency and customer engagement [6] - Participation in strategic financing for AI technology development indicates a commitment to leveraging AI for future growth in the exhibition industry [6] Investment Recommendations - The revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are adjusted to 1.064 billion yuan, 1.391 billion yuan, and 1.575 billion yuan, with net profits of 273 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 429 million yuan, respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same period are revised to 1.18 yuan, 1.60 yuan, and 1.86 yuan, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating based on the current market price [7]

Group 1: Core Views - The recent upgrades in stock ratings by brokerages are primarily concentrated in sectors with significant performance growth, rising industry sentiment, or turnaround situations, particularly in AI and robotics [2][5] - The number of stocks downgraded by brokerages has reached a year-to-date high, with notable downgrades in the coal and tourism sectors [5][6] Group 2: Upgraded Stocks - Multiple stocks in the AI and robotics sectors have received rating upgrades, including: - Platinum New Materials, with a projected net profit of 376 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [2] - Huichang Communications, expected to achieve a net profit of 29 million yuan in 2024, turning profitable with a 12.28% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 [2] - Beijing Junzheng, with Q1 revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and anticipated market recovery [3] - Keli Sensor, reporting a net profit of 76 million yuan in Q1, a nearly 76% year-on-year increase [3] - Nanshan Zhishang, recognized for its leading position in domestic wool spinning and new materials applications [3][4] Group 3: Downgraded Stocks - Several coal stocks have been downgraded, including: - Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma, downgraded to "overweight" due to weak coking coal prices [5] - Shanmei International, also downgraded to "overweight" despite low mining costs and potential production increases [5] - The tourism sector has seen downgrades, such as: - Jinjiang Hotels, with a Q1 net profit of 36 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [5] - Miao Exhibition, downgraded due to declining revenue amid intensified competition [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Brokerages are optimistic about AI and high-dividend sectors for May, with expectations of a continued oscillating market [7] - Recommendations include focusing on three main directions: financial dividends, self-sufficiency in industries like military, and domestic consumption [7] - The market is expected to follow a gentle recovery path, with attention on cyclical sectors and growth styles, particularly in AI and robotics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for 2024, attributing the decrease to intensified competition in overseas exhibitions, particularly in Southeast Asia, and insufficient government subsidies [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 751 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 10% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 155 million yuan, down 18% year-over-year [1] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 17 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 77% [1] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was 37 million yuan, showing an extraordinary year-over-year increase of 864% [1] - Contract liabilities for Q1 2025 amounted to 193 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13.5% [1] Group 2: Exhibition Strategy - The company hosted 14 exhibitions across nine countries in 2024, with 7,500 participating enterprises and nearly 300,000 square meters of exhibition space [1] - The company is transitioning to specialized exhibitions while leveraging "AI + data" to enhance trade show formats [1] - In 2025, the company plans to hold nine industrial machinery exhibitions across eight countries, focusing on key markets such as the Belt and Road Initiative, RCEP, and BRICS countries [2] Group 3: Digitalization and Localization - The company is accelerating its digital transformation by integrating AI technology into exhibition services, launching the world's first AI-driven exhibition solution [2] - The company has established strategic points in Dubai, Indonesia, and Osaka, forming an initial overseas exhibition system [2] - Efforts are being made to localize exhibitor sources in overseas markets, with professional teams set up in Dubai and Indonesia for exhibitor recruitment [2] Group 4: Platform Development - The company aims to create a comprehensive exhibition service platform by deepening strategic partnerships with existing exhibition platforms and seeking collaboration opportunities with domestic platforms [3] - The company is focused on incubating more specialized exhibition projects by leveraging its strong exhibition platform [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Due to trade pressures, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 266 million yuan and 340 million yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [3] - A new net profit forecast of 400 million yuan for 2027 has been introduced, with an adjusted investment rating of "Accumulate" based on the closing price on April 28 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's sales performance met expectations, with a focus on new opportunities arising from geopolitical and foreign trade environment changes [4] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 due to the rescheduling of exhibitions, but there is a positive trend in booth sales [4][6] - The company is expected to benefit from strategic transformations and cost control measures, enhancing profitability in the coming years [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 751 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit of 155 million yuan, down 17.6% [4][7] - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue, projecting 947 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 26.1% [7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 50.8%, with a net margin of 20.7%, showing slight improvements in profitability metrics [5][10] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from self-organized exhibitions, agency exhibitions, and digital exhibitions in 2024 was 680 million yuan, 60 million yuan, and 16 million yuan respectively, with year-over-year changes of -12.6%, +50.9%, and -25.4% [5] - The gross margins for these segments were 51.98%, 38.2%, and 48.6% respectively, indicating a mixed performance across different business lines [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to host 17 exhibitions in 11 countries in 2025, including new events in India and Saudi Arabia, although the feasibility of the Indian exhibitions remains uncertain [6] - The introduction of AI-driven exhibition products is expected to enhance participation effectiveness and boost revenue [6] - Profitability is projected to improve further due to scale effects, increased venue utilization, and refined operations [6]