Company Performance - Alcoa missed revenue targets due to shipments in transit at the end of the quarter, expected to be recognized in the fourth quarter [2] - The company met consensus earnings estimates through tight cost control [3] - Alcoa achieved production records in several facilities [2] Strategic Initiatives & Market Dynamics - Alcoa announced an investment in its Western Australia facility to extract approximately 10% of the world's gallium supply, aiming for market entry by the end of 2026 [5][6] - This gallium project strengthens relationships between Alcoa, the US government, the Japanese government, and the Australian government [6] - The project aims to provide gallium to the rest of the world, reducing reliance on China, which currently extracts and processes over 90% of the world's gallium [5] - Alcoa secured a long-term power contract in Massena, New York [4] - Alumina prices have decreased sharply over the past 90 days, with approximately 40% of the Chinese market currently underwater [8] Refining Capacity - Alcoa does not see a need to shut down any refining capacity due to its cost position, with its refining capacity primarily in the first quartile of the cost curve [7][8]

Core Insights - Alcoa reported a revenue miss due to shipments in transit at the end of the quarter, but production records were achieved in several facilities, indicating solid operational performance [2] - Earnings met consensus estimates, attributed to tight cost control and execution of strategic initiatives, including a significant gallium investment announcement [3][4] - A long-term power contract was secured in Msina, New York, which is expected to support future operations [4] Production and Market Dynamics - Alcoa's production of alumina and aluminum increased, although trade dynamics introduced some noise in the results [1] - The company is not planning to shut down any refining capacity, as its cost position allows it to operate in a low-price environment despite a significant portion of the Chinese market being underwater [7][8] Gallium Investment - Alcoa announced an investment in a facility in Western Australia to extract approximately 10% of the world's gallium, which is currently dominated by China [5] - This investment strengthens relationships with the US, Japanese, and Australian governments, and production is expected to commence by the end of 2026 [6]

Alcoa's Financial Performance - Alcoa reported a slightly smaller than expected adjusted loss and a miss on revenue [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was down 14% versus last quarter [1] Factors Impacting Alcoa's Performance - Increased tariff costs and unfavorable currency impacts are playing a factor [1] - Tariff costs on higher US imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to increase by approximately $50 million sequentially [2] - Trade policy is also impacting guidance [2] Alcoa's Future Prospects - Alcoa has a critical minerals play with gallium that could be in production as early as 2026 [7] - The critical minerals play could be a higher margin business with some pricing power [7] IBM's Performance and AI - IBM met expectations, but people were hoping for more than a meet [4] - Gen AI has been accelerating, but that's still a small part of IBM's business [5] - AI is an important part of the story for many tech names, and if it is not strong or accelerating, it's a problem for the stock [6]

Alcoa Summary - Alcoa reported a slightly smaller than expected adjusted loss, with a revenue miss and adjusted EBITDA down 14% compared to the previous quarter, influenced by increased tariff costs and unfavorable currency impacts [1] - The company anticipates an increase in tariff costs on higher US imports of aluminum from Canada by approximately $50 million sequentially, which is affecting guidance [2] - Alcoa's shares are currently down about 1.5%, reflecting market reactions to the earnings report and broader economic conditions [3] Industry Insights - The industrial sector, including companies like Alcoa, is facing challenges related to critical minerals and commodity pricing, with a focus on cost control and demand fluctuations [6] - Alcoa is exploring opportunities in critical minerals, particularly gallium, which could lead to higher margins and pricing power, with potential production increases as early as 2026 [7]

Financial Performance - Alcoa reported 3Q25 Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.88, but an Adjusted EPS of $(0.02)[18] - The company recorded a $786 million gain on the sale of a 25.1% interest in the Ma'aden joint venture[13] - Alcoa announced the permanent closure of the Kwinana refinery, resulting in $895 million of restructuring and related charges[13] - Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items decreased from $313 million in 2Q25 to $270 million in 3Q25, a decrease of $43 million[18] - The company's YTD return on equity is 14.5%, the highest since 2022[25] Production and Shipments - Alumina production for 3Q25 was 7.2 million metric tons (Mmt), with a full-year outlook of 9.5 – 9.7 Mmt[26] - Alumina shipments for 3Q25 were 9.8 Mmt, with a full-year outlook of 13.1 – 13.3 Mmt[26] - Aluminum production for 3Q25 was 1.7 Mmt, with a full-year outlook of 2.3 – 2.5 Mmt[26] - Aluminum shipments for 3Q25 were 1.9 Mmt, with a full-year outlook of 2.5 – 2.6 Mmt[26] Market Dynamics - LME aluminum prices increased by 7% sequentially in 3Q25[36]

Financial Performance - Alcoa reported a quarterly loss of $0.02 per share, missing the analyst estimate of a $0.01 profit [2] - Total quarterly revenue was $2.99 billion, below the Street estimate of $3.13 billion [2][4] - The company's total third-party revenue decreased by 1% sequentially to $3 billion [4] Production and Shipments - Alumina production increased by 4% sequentially to 2.5 million metric tons [3] - Aluminum production increased by 1% sequentially to 579,000 metric tons [3] - Third-party shipments of alumina were flat sequentially at 2.2 million metric tons, while total shipments in Aluminum decreased by 3% sequentially [3] Segment Performance - In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased by 9% [4] - In the Aluminum segment, third-party revenue increased by 4% [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on safety, stability, and continuous improvement to enhance overall profitability in the fourth quarter [5] - There is an ongoing effort to progress Australia mine approvals [5]

Higher tariff costs on imported aluminum weighed somewhat on third-quarter income, the company said. ...

Financial Performance - Alcoa reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $2.995 billion, a decrease of 1% sequentially from $3.018 billion in Q2 2025[3]. - Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation was $232 million, or $0.88 per share, compared to $164 million and $0.62 per share in Q2 2025[3]. - Alcoa Corporation reported Q3 2025 sales of $2,995 million, a slight decrease from $3,018 million in Q2 2025 but an increase from $2,904 million in Q3 2024[23]. - The net income attributable to Alcoa for Q3 2025 was $232 million, up from $164 million in Q2 2025 and significantly higher than $90 million in Q3 2024[23]. - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Alcoa's sales reached $9,382 million, compared to $8,409 million for the same period in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 11.5%[24]. - Alcoa's net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $944 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of $142 million in the same period of 2024[24]. - Alcoa's earnings per share for Q3 2025 were $0.88, compared to $0.63 in Q2 2025 and $0.39 in Q3 2024, reflecting strong profitability growth[23]. Production and Operations - Alumina production increased by 4% sequentially to 2.5 million metric tons, while aluminum production rose by 1% to 579,000 metric tons[8]. - The company expects 2025 total alumina production to remain between 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons, unchanged from prior projections[10]. - For the fourth quarter 2025, Alcoa anticipates unfavorable impacts of approximately $20 million due to restart inefficiencies at the San Ciprián smelter[12]. - Alcoa is advancing the development of a gallium plant at the Wagerup refinery in Australia with support from U.S. and Australian governments[4]. - The company plans to submit responses to the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority regarding mining activities in Australia in Q4 2025[4]. Costs and Expenses - Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items was $270 million, down $43 million sequentially due to increased tariff costs and lower alumina prices[3]. - The total costs and expenses for Q3 2025 were $2,828 million, slightly lower than $2,857 million in Q2 2025 and higher than $2,720 million in Q3 2024[23]. - The company incurred restructuring and other charges of $885 million in Q3 2025, a notable increase from $14 million in Q2 2025 and $30 million in Q3 2024[23]. - Alcoa's operational tax expense for Q4 2025 is expected to be approximately $40 million to $50 million, subject to market conditions[13]. Cash Flow and Debt - Alcoa ended Q3 2025 with a cash balance of $1.5 billion, including the full repayment of a $74 million term loan[4]. - Alcoa's cash and cash equivalents increased to $1,485 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $1,138 million at the end of 2024[26]. - Total debt as of September 30, 2025, was $2,581 million, slightly down from $2,595 million as of December 31, 2024[37]. - Net debt as of September 30, 2025, was $1,096 million, compared to $1,457 million as of December 31, 2024[37]. - Free cash flow for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $(66) million, a decrease from $357 million in the previous quarter and $(3) million in the same quarter last year[36]. Assets and Working Capital - The company reported a total asset value of $15,969 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $14,064 million at the end of 2024, indicating a growth of 13.5%[26]. - DWC working capital for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was $1,618 million, an increase from $1,566 million in the previous quarter and $1,414 million in the same quarter last year[40]. - Days working capital for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, was 50 days, compared to 47 days in the previous quarter and 45 days in the same quarter last year[40]. Other Notable Items - The company reported a gain on the sale of interest in the Ma'aden joint venture of $786 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025[32]. - Costs related to the closure of the Kwinana, Australia refinery amounted to $39 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025[35]. - The company recognized a net benefit for discrete tax items of $5 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2025[32]. - Research and development expenses for Q3 2025 were $11 million, down from $12 million in Q2 2025 and $16 million in Q3 2024[23].

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation is expected to report a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share for Q3, a significant decline from a profit of 57 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - The consensus estimate for Alcoa's quarterly revenue is projected at $3.13 billion, an increase from $2.9 billion a year earlier [1] - The company announced the closure of the Kwinana Refinery on September 29 [1] Stock Performance - Alcoa shares fell by 4.4%, closing at $37.23 on Tuesday [2] Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos De Alba maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $38 to $42.5 [4] - Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a price target of $40 [4] - B. Riley Securities analyst Nick Giles maintained a Buy rating and increased the price target from $38 to $40 [4] - UBS analyst Daniel Major maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $31 to $34 [4] - B of A Securities analyst Lawson Winder maintained an Underperform rating and increased the price target from $26 to $27 [4]

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation (AA) is expected to report a 4.1% increase in revenues for Q3 2025, with estimates at $3.02 billion compared to the previous year [1][11] - The company is projected to experience a decline in earnings per share, with a consensus estimate of an adjusted loss of seven cents, reflecting a 112.3% increase from last year's quarterly level [2][11] Revenue and Sales Performance - The Aluminum segment is anticipated to benefit from increased demand for products such as slab, billet, and rod in Europe and North America, with third-party sales estimated at $2.11 billion, indicating a 17% increase from the prior year [3][4] - The Alumina segment, however, is expected to show weakness, with third-party sales projected at $813 million, representing an 18.9% decrease from the previous year [7][11] Strategic Developments - Alcoa's partnerships and acquisitions, including a joint venture with IGNIS EQT and the acquisition of Alumina Limited, are expected to enhance revenue streams [5] - Efforts to increase smelter and refinery capacity are likely to support performance in the upcoming quarter [6] Market Conditions - The company faces challenges in the Alumina segment due to a weak bauxite market influenced by safety and environmental inspections [7] - Global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds, particularly a stronger U.S. dollar, may negatively impact Alcoa's overseas operations [8]