1 st Quarter Earnings April 16, 2025 1 Cautionary Statement regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as "aims," "ambition," "anticipates," "believes," "could," "develop," "endeavors," "estimates," "expects," "forecasts," "goal," "intends," "ma ...

Core Insights - Alcoa reported revenue of $3.37 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 29.6% [1] - The company's EPS was $2.15, a significant improvement from -$0.81 in the same quarter last year, with an EPS surprise of +24.28% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.73 [1] Financial Performance - Revenue of $3.37 billion was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.44 billion, resulting in a surprise of -1.95% [1] - Total third-party sales increased by 29.6% year-over-year, while intersegment sales of alumina rose by 80.3% year-over-year [4] - Total sales of alumina reached $2.18 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $1.96 billion, marking a year-over-year change of +60.4% [4] Key Metrics - Average realized price per metric ton of alumina was $575, lower than the estimated $600.80 [4] - Average realized price per metric ton of aluminum was $3,213, compared to the estimated $3,244.13 [4] - Third-party alumina shipments were 2,105 Kmt, below the estimated 2,184.89 Kmt [4] - Third-party aluminum shipments totaled 609 Kmt, also below the average estimate of 624.82 Kmt [4] Stock Performance - Alcoa's shares have declined by 27.4% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 4.2% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue decreased by 3% sequentially to $3.4 billion, with the Illumina segment's third-party revenue down 8% due to lower average realized prices and shipments [11] - Net income attributable to Alcoa was $548 million, up from $202 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share more than doubling to $2.07 [12] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by $178 million to $855 million, driven by higher aluminum prices and lower intersegment profit elimination [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Illumina segment, revenue decreased due to lower prices and shipments, while the aluminum segment's revenue remained flat despite an increase in average realized prices [11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the alumina segment decreased by $52 million due to lower prices and volume, while the aluminum segment's adjusted EBITDA decreased by $60 million due to higher costs [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The LME aluminum price showed resilience despite a general decrease, with the Midwest premium increasing but not reaching expected levels [40][41] - Alumina prices declined in the first quarter due to increased liquidity and production normalization, with over 80% of Chinese refineries reportedly unprofitable [38][39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet and focus on operational excellence, with a commitment to safety and continuous improvement [7][10] - Alcoa is engaging with U.S. and Canadian governments to advocate for favorable trade policies and is focused on restarting the San Ciprian smelter under a joint venture [45][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and their impact on operations, particularly the 25% tariff on Canadian aluminum [32][30] - The outlook for the second quarter includes expectations of unfavorable performance in the aluminum segment due to tariff costs and operating expenses related to the San Ciprian smelter restart [25][26] Other Important Information - The company completed a $1 billion debt offering to refinance existing debt, which is expected to lower interest expenses [10] - Cash flow activities showed a strong cash balance of $1.2 billion at the end of the first quarter, despite high working capital consumption typical for this period [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on tariff impacts - Management clarified that the $100 million negative impact from tariffs considers higher Midwest premiums and the overall cost of Canadian tariffs, while the $105 million figure is a quarterly estimate based on current pricing assumptions [54][55] Question: Engagement with government on tariffs - Management confirmed ongoing engagement with U.S. and Canadian governments, emphasizing the need for economic upstream aluminum production to support downstream jobs [63][64] Question: San Ciprian smelter restart and hedging strategy - Management indicated that the smelter losses would be heavier in 2025 due to restart inefficiencies, with hedging strategies in place to manage costs [76][78] Question: Impact of lower oil and input prices - Management noted that while some input prices are increasing, productivity initiatives are expected to offset these costs [89] Question: Working capital expectations - Management expects a significant drop in working capital throughout the year, particularly in the second quarter, as high pricing normalizes [93] Question: Future of aluminum production in China - Management expressed confidence that the Chinese industry would react quickly to economic pressures, potentially leading to curtailments in output [85] Question: Trade actions in the EU - Management stated that there is too much uncertainty regarding potential EU trade actions to speculate on impacts at this time [137]

PITTSBURGH--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 16, 2025--Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA; ASX: AAI) today reported results for the first quarter 2025, a period that included sequential increases in Net income, Adjusted net income and Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items and the announced joint venture to support the San Ciprián (Spain) operations. Financial Results and Highlights | M, except per share amounts | | 1Q25 | 4Q24 | 1Q24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue | $ | 3,369 $ | 3,486 $ | 2,599 | | Net incom ...

Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company has a team of experienced news journalists who produce independent content across various financial markets [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The content includes insights into sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for its forward-looking approach and enthusiastic adoption of technology to enhance workflows [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa is expected to report significant growth in quarterly earnings and revenues, with earnings per share projected at $1.73, a 313.6% increase year-over-year, and revenues forecasted at $3.47 billion, reflecting a 33.6% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 20.7%, indicating a reassessment by analysts of their initial forecasts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Total sales- Aluminum' at $2.06 billion, a year-over-year increase of 25.6% [5]. - 'Third-party sales- Bauxite' are projected to reach $110.67 million, indicating a 72.9% increase from the previous year [5]. - 'Third-party sales- Aluminum' are expected to be $2.05 billion, reflecting a 24.9% increase year-over-year [5]. Price and Shipment Estimates - 'Third-party sales- Alumina' are forecasted at $1.37 billion, a 53% increase from the year-ago quarter [6]. - The average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina is projected to be $622.92, up from $372 in the same quarter last year [6]. - The consensus estimate for the average realized third-party price per metric ton of aluminum is $3,190.27, compared to $2,620 a year ago [7]. - 'Third-party alumina shipments' are expected to reach 2,179.33 Kmt, down from 2,397 Kmt reported last year [7]. - 'Third-party aluminum shipments' are projected at 637.32 Kmt, slightly up from 634 Kmt in the same quarter last year [8]. Production Estimates - 'Aluminum production' is estimated at 571.57 Kmt, compared to 542 Kmt in the previous year [9]. - 'Bauxite production' is forecasted at 9.75 Mmt, down from 10.1 Mmt reported last year [9]. - 'Intersegment Alumina Shipments' are expected to be 1,066.83 Kmt, up from 943 Kmt year-over-year [8]. - 'Alumina production' is projected to reach 2,376.16 Kmt, down from 2,670 Kmt reported last year [8]. Stock Performance - Alcoa shares have decreased by 26.5% over the past month, contrasting with a 6.1% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [9].

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Aluminum Industry - The Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum products entering the United States, aimed at reducing trade imbalance [1] - The tariffs are expected to benefit Century Aluminum Co., which has a strong historical correlation with job growth during previous tariff implementations [3][4] - Alcoa Corp. faces challenges due to its reliance on Canadian manufacturing, which may lead to potential layoffs if tariff exemptions are not granted [9][10] Group 2: Company Performance and Stock Forecasts - Century Aluminum's stock (CENX) has increased by 71% over the last 12 months and is projected to have a 12-month price forecast of $24.33, indicating a 23.33% upside [5][6] - Alcoa's stock (AA) has a current price of $35.29 with a 12-month price forecast of $50.17, suggesting a 42.16% upside, despite a 9% decline in 2025 [9][12] - Century Aluminum's strong earnings report showed a 22% year-over-year revenue gain and an 8% increase in earnings per share [5]

Group 1 - Alcoa Corporation (AA) is experiencing significant activity in the options market, particularly with the Apr 17, 2025 $20.00 Call showing high implied volatility, indicating potential for a major price movement [1] - Implied volatility reflects market expectations for future stock movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a significant event that could lead to a rally or sell-off [2] - Alcoa currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) in the Metal Products - Distribution industry, which is in the bottom 17% of the Zacks Industry Rank, with recent earnings estimates for the current quarter adjusted from $1.83 to $1.66 per share [3] Group 2 - The high implied volatility surrounding Alcoa may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on such options to capture decay, hoping the stock does not move as much as expected by expiration [4]

Group 1 - The Company will change its name from "Friday's Dog Holdings Inc." to "Patriot Resources Corp." effective March 12, 2025, pending final approval from the TSX Venture Exchange [1][2] - The Company's trading symbol will change to "MAGA.H" and the new ISIN number will be CA70338G1000, with the new CUSIP number being 70338G100 [2] - The Company currently has no active business but aims to reflect its focus on searching for opportunities in the resource sector through the name change [3]

Safety and Employee Well-being - Alcoa aims for a step change in safety performance, focusing on minimizing risk and enhancing employee well-being[26]. - Alcoa's safety programs include rigorous standards and controls aimed at preventing loss of life and serious injury, with a focus on proactive incident reporting[101]. - As of December 31, 2024, Alcoa had approximately 13,900 employees globally, with women comprising about 20% of the workforce[102]. - Approximately 10,300 of Alcoa's global employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements, with varying expiration dates[102]. Sustainability and Environmental Initiatives - ELYSIS technology aims to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from aluminum smelting, with a target for first production by 2027[31]. - Alcoa's sustainability initiatives include a comprehensive suite of products with lower carbon emissions under the Sustana brand[27]. - Approximately 87% of Alcoa's aluminum smelting portfolio was powered by renewable energy sources in 2024[88]. - The company has entered into long-term power purchase agreements with renewable energy providers to supply up to 50% of the San Ciprián smelter's power needs at full capacity[74]. - Alcoa's capital expenditures for new or expanded facilities for environmental control were $131 million in 2024, with an expected increase to approximately $170 million in 2025[94]. - Alcoa is committed to the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM), with audits confirming compliance for facilities classified with very high or extreme consequences[92]. - The company manages environmental assessments and cleanups at approximately 60 locations, including Superfund sites[94]. - Alcoa continues to monitor and assess the impact of climate change regulations on its business operations[93]. Production and Capacity - In 2024, Alcoa's bauxite production totaled 38.3 million dry metric tons, with 33.7 million dry metric tons from Alcoa-operated mines[48]. - As of December 31, 2024, Alcoa's total alumina refining capacity is 15,619,000 mtpy, with a consolidated capacity of 13,843,000 mtpy, and approximately 3,204,000 mtpy of idle capacity[53][54]. - Alcoa's primary aluminum facilities have a total smelting capacity of 3,102,000 mtpy, with a consolidated capacity of 2,645,000 mtpy, and approximately 374,000 mtpy of idle smelting capacity[60][61]. - The Kwinana refinery was fully curtailed in June 2024, reducing its workforce from approximately 780 to 250 employees, with further reductions planned[56]. - In 2024, the San Ciprián refinery operated at approximately 50% of its capacity due to high natural gas costs, and a strategic partnership with IGNIS EQT is being pursued[57][65]. - The company restarted 54,000 mtpy of capacity at the Warrick smelter in early 2024 and completed the restart of 16,000 mtpy at the Portland smelter[64]. - The Alumar smelter is currently operating at 84% of its total annual capacity of 268,000 mtpy as of December 31, 2024[75]. - Alcoa's San Ciprián smelter has been operating at 50% capacity since Q3 2022, with a restart of approximately 6% capacity expected in March 2024[74]. Financial and Investment Activities - Alcoa agreed to sell its 25.1% interest in the Saudi Arabia joint venture for approximately 86 million shares and $150 million in cash, expected to close in the first half of 2025[30]. - The acquisition of Alumina Limited was valued at approximately $2.7 billion, with an implied value of A$1.45 per Alumina Share[34]. - The company completed a five-year strategic portfolio review, curtailing or divesting 4 million metric tons of refining capacity, exceeding its target[55][62]. Energy and Resource Management - Energy costs accounted for approximately 24% of alumina refining production costs and 22% of primary aluminum production costs in 2024[66]. - Alcoa generated approximately 10% of the power used at its smelters worldwide in 2024, with the remainder purchased under long-term arrangements[68]. - The total electricity generation capacity of Alcoa's facilities is 1,281 MW, generating 8,310,327 MWh in 2024[70]. - Approximately 31% of the generation from the Warrick power plant was sold into the market in 2024, following the cessation of coal use from the Alcoa-owned Liberty Mine[71]. - Alcoa has secured approximately 80% of the necessary power for its Mosjøen smelter through long-term power purchase agreements until 2035[74]. - Alcoa's gas supply arrangements are expected to cover approximately 90% of the Pinjarra and Wagerup refineries' gas requirements through 2027[73]. - The company is evaluating alternatives to resell, swap, or redeploy gas secured for the Kwinana refinery, which was fully curtailed in June 2024[73]. Research and Development - The company plans to invest in breakthrough technologies at a measured pace, balancing research, development, and commercialization efforts[27]. - Alcoa's worldwide patent portfolio consists of approximately 360 granted patents and about 200 pending patent applications as of December 31, 2024[89]. Regulatory Compliance - The company is subject to new regulations, including the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS) and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), applicable to its operations starting in 2025[93]. - Alcoa's operations are influenced by various government regulations, which may increase operational costs but are believed to be in compliance in all material respects[90]. - The company continues to monitor and assess the impact of climate change regulations on its business operations[93]. Human Capital Management - Alcoa's human capital management strategy emphasizes attracting, developing, and retaining skilled employees as a key to business success[97].