Group 1 - The article discusses the potential benefits of subscribing to Beyond the Wall Investing for access to high-quality equity research reports, which can save investors thousands of dollars annually [1] - Alcoa Corporation (AA) stock has been under review for about 9 months, with a previous "Buy" rating maintained despite a continued correction in the stock price [1] - Oakoff Investments, a personal portfolio manager and quantitative research analyst, leads the investing group Beyond the Wall Investing, offering features such as a fundamentals-based portfolio and weekly analysis [1]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 美铝 2025Q4 原铝产量环比增加 4.3%至 60.4 万 吨，归母净利润环比减少 2.6%至 2.26 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 2025Q4 生产运营情况 1、氧化铝 2025Q4 铝土矿产量为 940 万吨，同比增加 1.1%，环比增加 1.1%。 2025Q4 第三方铝土矿发货量为 240 万吨，同比持平，环比增 加 41.2%。 2025Q4 氧化铝产量为 248.1 万吨，同比增加 3.8%，环比增加 1.1%。主要得益于澳大利亚精炼厂产量提升。 2025Q4 第三方氧化铝发货量为 232.4 万吨，同比增加 1.5%， 环比增加 5.4%。主要得益于为履行客户承诺而增加的外部氧 化铝采购量以及产量提升。 2025Q4 业务间氧化铝出货量为 117.7 万吨，同比减少 1.8%， 环比增加 5.8%。 2025Q4 生产的氧化铝发货量合计为 251.4 万吨，同比增加 1.9%，环比增加 2.7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corp. reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, exceeding expectations in both earnings per share and revenue, but the stock experienced a decline due to cautious near-term guidance [3][4]. Financial Performance - Alcoa achieved earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, surpassing estimates of 95 cents, and reported revenue of $3.45 billion, exceeding expectations of $3.28 billion [3]. - The company demonstrated significant improvements in profitability, with adjusted EBITDA rising sharply due to higher aluminum prices, better shipment mix, and effective cost management [6]. Stock Market Reaction - Despite the strong earnings report, Alcoa's stock dropped approximately 5% at market open following the earnings announcement, attributed to a sell-the-news reaction and cautious guidance regarding near-term earnings and free cash flow [4][9]. Operational Strength - Alcoa highlighted record production levels at several smelters and a key refinery, indicating that the strong results were driven by operational performance rather than one-time items [6]. - The company generated robust operating cash flow and free cash flow, enhancing its balance sheet and providing flexibility for growth projects and capital returns to shareholders [7]. Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence that favorable aluminum fundamentals, tariff-related pricing support, and ongoing productivity initiatives will sustain healthy margins into 2026, despite mixed alumina market conditions [8]. - The quarter reinforced the view that Alcoa is operating from a position of strength, moving beyond merely recovering from previous downturns [9].

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation is a leading player in the aluminum industry, with a strong market position and positive financial performance indicators, despite facing slight revenue declines [1][6]. Financial Performance - Alcoa reported Q4 2025 revenue of $3.45 billion, a decrease of 1.1% year-over-year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.24 billion, resulting in a positive surprise of 6.34% [3][6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2025 were $1.26, up from $1.04 the previous year, and significantly above the consensus estimate of $0.95, delivering a surprise of 32.63% [4][6]. - Alcoa's fourth-quarter profit increased to $226 million, compared to $202 million in the same period the previous year, driven by gains in alumina and aluminum sales [5][6]. Market Position and Ratings - B. Riley maintained a "Buy" rating for Alcoa and raised its price target from $44 to $78, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [2][6]. - The current stock price of Alcoa is $63.14, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.14%, with a market capitalization of approximately $16.35 billion [5].

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYI) are key players in the aluminum sector, with high aluminum prices driven by global economic uncertainties and trade tensions [2] - The demand for aluminum is increasing due to its applications in electric vehicles, recycled materials, and the aerospace industry [3] Alcoa Corporation (AA) - Alcoa benefits from increased aluminum demand and a 50% tariff on imported aluminum, which has raised domestic prices [5] - In 2025, Alcoa's Aluminum segment production rose 5% year-over-year to 2,319 kilometric tons, with third-party revenues increasing by 15.6% [6][7] - The Alumina segment faced a 3.9% production decline to 9,640 kilometric tons in 2025, but is expected to recover in 2026 [8] - Alcoa's acquisition of Alumina Limited in August 2024 enhances its position in the market and is expected to create long-term value [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alcoa's 2026 sales indicates a 7% growth, with EPS expected to rise by 18.3% [16] - Alcoa's stock has increased by 68.7% over the past year, and it trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13.16X, below its three-year median [20][22] Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYI) - Ryerson's diversified structure allows it to offset weaknesses in certain markets with strengths in others, benefiting from increased infrastructure spending and reshoring [10] - In the first nine months of 2025, aluminum product line shipments remained stable at 143,000 tons, with revenues rising 7.7% to $868 million [12] - However, revenues from carbon steel and stainless steel product lines declined due to lower average selling prices [13] - RYI expects fourth-quarter net sales between $1.07 billion and $1.11 billion, with a projected decline in customer shipments [14] - Ryerson's long-term debt increased by 6.7% to $498.2 million, raising concerns about its financial health [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RYI's 2026 sales implies an 11.4% growth, but EPS is expected to rise significantly by 256.3% [18] - Ryerson's stock has gained 38.7% over the past year, but it trades at a higher forward P/E ratio of 22.23X compared to its three-year median [20][22] Investment Outlook - Alcoa's strong momentum in the aluminum segment and favorable valuation make it a more attractive investment compared to Ryerson, which faces challenges in manufacturing demand and high debt levels [22][23]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.23%, S&P 500 futures down 0.11%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.18% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX down 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.04%, France's CAC40 down 0.40%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 down 0.41% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 1.89% to $60.48 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.81% to $65.22 per barrel [3][4] Investment Trends - A new wave of "Sell America" is emerging, with global funds flocking to Asian tech stocks and gold, driven by tensions between the US and various sovereign governments, leading to significant selling pressure on dollar assets [5] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are attracting global capital, with a focus on South Korea, China, Taiwan, and India [5] Company News - Schlumberger (SLB.US) reported Q4 net income exceeding expectations, driven by strong North American market demand, with revenue up 5% year-over-year to $9.75 billion [8] - Ericsson (ERIC.US) nearly doubled its Q4 profit, exceeding expectations, and announced a historic SEK 15 billion stock buyback plan [9] - Intel (INTC.US) reported Q4 revenue down 4.1% year-over-year to $13.7 billion, with guidance for Q1 2026 lower than analyst expectations [10] - Alcoa (AA.US) reported Q4 revenue of $3.4 billion, exceeding market consensus, driven by rising aluminum prices [10] - First Capital Credit (COF.US) reported Q4 revenue of $15.583 billion, a 53% year-over-year increase, but adjusted EPS fell short of analyst expectations [11] - Amazon (AMZN.US) is preparing to lay off thousands of employees, following a previous announcement of 14,000 job cuts [13] - Tesla (TSLA.US) has launched a fully autonomous taxi service in Austin, marking a significant milestone in its operations [14]

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Core Insights - Alcoa reported revenue of $3.45 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, reflecting a 1.1% decrease year-over-year, but exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.34% [1] - The company's EPS was $1.26, up from $1.04 in the same quarter last year, representing a surprise of 32.63% over the consensus estimate of $0.95 [1] Financial Performance - Alcoa's average realized price per metric ton of alumina was $341.00, surpassing the analyst estimate of $334.30 [4] - The average realized price per metric ton of aluminum was $3,749.00, compared to the analyst estimate of $3,724.71 [4] - The average cost per metric ton of aluminum shipped was $2,478.00, lower than the estimated $2,679.38 [4] - Total sales for alumina were $1.44 billion, exceeding the estimate of $1.32 billion, but down 41.2% year-over-year [4] - Total sales for aluminum reached $2.37 billion, slightly below the estimate of $2.45 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 24.7% [4] - Third-party sales of bauxite were $173 million, exceeding the estimate of $160.89 million, with a year-over-year increase of 35.2% [4] - Total third-party sales amounted to $3.45 billion, compared to the average estimate of $3.34 billion, reflecting a 1.1% decrease year-over-year [4] Market Performance - Alcoa's shares have returned 19.1% over the past month, significantly outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 0.7% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Alcoa reported a strong fourth quarter for 2025, with increased revenue and adjusted EBITDA driven by higher aluminum prices and production records across multiple facilities [4][7]. Production and Operational Performance - The company achieved annual production records at five smelters and one refinery, with 16 consecutive years of increased production at Deschambault in Canada and eight years at Mosjøen in Norway [2]. - The San Ciprián smelter restart is progressing well, reaching about 65% capacity by the end of 2025, with full restart expected in the first half of 2026 [1][6]. Financial Results - Alcoa's Q4 revenue was $3.4 billion, a 15% sequential increase, with adjusted EBITDA rising to $546 million, up $276 million sequentially [7]. - The company recorded a net income of $226 million, with adjusted net income of $335 million or $1.26 per share [8]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Alcoa ended December with $1.6 billion in cash and $1.5 billion of adjusted net debt, at the high end of its target range [5][12]. - Free cash flow for the full year 2025 was $594 million, with $294 million generated in the fourth quarter [10]. 2026 Guidance - For 2026, Alcoa expects alumina production of 9.7 to 9.9 million tons and aluminum production of 2.4 to 2.6 million tons, with anticipated headwinds in Q1 [13][16]. - Capital expenditures are projected at $750 million for 2026, with a focus on sustaining capital and environmental spending [15]. Market Commentary - Alumina pricing remains range-bound, while aluminum LME prices increased by 8% sequentially, reaching $3,200 per metric ton [19]. - The company anticipates a net benefit from the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, estimating a positive impact of approximately $10 per metric ton [20]. Strategic Initiatives - Alcoa is negotiating to monetize a remediation site in the U.S., with an agreement expected in the first half of 2026 [21]. - The company is also focused on mine approvals in Western Australia, expecting an EPA recommendation by mid-2026 [22].