Alcoa's Financial Performance - Alcoa reported a slightly smaller than expected adjusted loss and a miss on revenue [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was down 14% versus last quarter [1] Factors Impacting Alcoa's Performance - Increased tariff costs and unfavorable currency impacts are playing a factor [1] - Tariff costs on higher US imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to increase by approximately $50 million sequentially [2] - Trade policy is also impacting guidance [2] Alcoa's Future Prospects - Alcoa has a critical minerals play with gallium that could be in production as early as 2026 [7] - The critical minerals play could be a higher margin business with some pricing power [7] IBM's Performance and AI - IBM met expectations, but people were hoping for more than a meet [4] - Gen AI has been accelerating, but that's still a small part of IBM's business [5] - AI is an important part of the story for many tech names, and if it is not strong or accelerating, it's a problem for the stock [6]

Alcoa Summary - Alcoa reported a slightly smaller than expected adjusted loss, with a revenue miss and adjusted EBITDA down 14% compared to the previous quarter, influenced by increased tariff costs and unfavorable currency impacts [1] - The company anticipates an increase in tariff costs on higher US imports of aluminum from Canada by approximately $50 million sequentially, which is affecting guidance [2] - Alcoa's shares are currently down about 1.5%, reflecting market reactions to the earnings report and broader economic conditions [3] Industry Insights - The industrial sector, including companies like Alcoa, is facing challenges related to critical minerals and commodity pricing, with a focus on cost control and demand fluctuations [6] - Alcoa is exploring opportunities in critical minerals, particularly gallium, which could lead to higher margins and pricing power, with potential production increases as early as 2026 [7]

October 22, 2025 3 rd Quarter Earnings Alcoa Corporation 1 Cautionary Statement regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as "aims," "ambition," "anticipates," "believes," "could," "develop," "endeavors," "estimates," "expects," "forecasts," "g ...

Financial Performance - Alcoa reported a quarterly loss of $0.02 per share, missing the analyst estimate of a $0.01 profit [2] - Total quarterly revenue was $2.99 billion, below the Street estimate of $3.13 billion [2][4] - The company's total third-party revenue decreased by 1% sequentially to $3 billion [4] Production and Shipments - Alumina production increased by 4% sequentially to 2.5 million metric tons [3] - Aluminum production increased by 1% sequentially to 579,000 metric tons [3] - Third-party shipments of alumina were flat sequentially at 2.2 million metric tons, while total shipments in Aluminum decreased by 3% sequentially [3] Segment Performance - In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased by 9% [4] - In the Aluminum segment, third-party revenue increased by 4% [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on safety, stability, and continuous improvement to enhance overall profitability in the fourth quarter [5] - There is an ongoing effort to progress Australia mine approvals [5]

Higher tariff costs on imported aluminum weighed somewhat on third-quarter income, the company said. ...

Exhibit 99.1 Alcoa Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results PITTSBURGH--(BUSINESS WIRE)--October 22, 2025--Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA; ASX: AAI) (Alcoa or the Company) today reported results for the third quarter 2025 that reflect increased production of alumina and aluminum, and one-time items. Financial Results and Highlights | M, except per share amounts | | 3Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue | $ | 2,995 $ | 3,018 $ | 2,904 | | Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporati ...

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation is expected to report a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share for Q3, a significant decline from a profit of 57 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - The consensus estimate for Alcoa's quarterly revenue is projected at $3.13 billion, an increase from $2.9 billion a year earlier [1] - The company announced the closure of the Kwinana Refinery on September 29 [1] Stock Performance - Alcoa shares fell by 4.4%, closing at $37.23 on Tuesday [2] Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos De Alba maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $38 to $42.5 [4] - Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a price target of $40 [4] - B. Riley Securities analyst Nick Giles maintained a Buy rating and increased the price target from $38 to $40 [4] - UBS analyst Daniel Major maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $31 to $34 [4] - B of A Securities analyst Lawson Winder maintained an Underperform rating and increased the price target from $26 to $27 [4]

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation (AA) is expected to report a 4.1% increase in revenues for Q3 2025, with estimates at $3.02 billion compared to the previous year [1][11] - The company is projected to experience a decline in earnings per share, with a consensus estimate of an adjusted loss of seven cents, reflecting a 112.3% increase from last year's quarterly level [2][11] Revenue and Sales Performance - The Aluminum segment is anticipated to benefit from increased demand for products such as slab, billet, and rod in Europe and North America, with third-party sales estimated at $2.11 billion, indicating a 17% increase from the prior year [3][4] - The Alumina segment, however, is expected to show weakness, with third-party sales projected at $813 million, representing an 18.9% decrease from the previous year [7][11] Strategic Developments - Alcoa's partnerships and acquisitions, including a joint venture with IGNIS EQT and the acquisition of Alumina Limited, are expected to enhance revenue streams [5] - Efforts to increase smelter and refinery capacity are likely to support performance in the upcoming quarter [6] Market Conditions - The company faces challenges in the Alumina segment due to a weak bauxite market influenced by safety and environmental inspections [7] - Global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds, particularly a stronger U.S. dollar, may negatively impact Alcoa's overseas operations [8]

Group 1 - Alcoa is expected to report quarterly revenues of approximately $3.1 billion, driven by stronger aluminum prices and increased shipment volumes [2] - Margins may face slight pressure due to high energy costs and input inflation, although cost-control measures could mitigate some of this impact [2] - The recovery in demand from aerospace, automotive, and packaging sectors supports volume expansion, but significant earnings growth will depend on sustained price strength and operational efficiency improvements [2] Group 2 - Alcoa has a current market capitalization of $9.4 billion, with annual revenue of $13 billion, operating profits of $1.6 billion, and a net income of $1.0 billion [3] - Historical earnings data shows that positive one-day returns occurred approximately 37% of the time over the last five years, dropping to 25% over the last three years [5] - The median of positive one-day returns is 2.9%, while the median of negative returns is -5.4% [5]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminium - **Global Demand**: Increased by 2% year-to-date (YTD) through August, with China up 3% and the Rest of the World (RoW) up 1% [1][2] - **Production**: China's aluminium production is approximately 44 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), nearing its production cap [1] - **Inventories**: Global visible aluminium inventories stand at 1,130 kilotonnes (kt), remaining below 2024 levels despite a recent increase of about 300 kt over the past three months [1] Key Insights - **Price Dynamics**: Aluminium prices have risen by 12% YTD, underperforming copper, which has increased by 22% [1] - **Alumina Prices**: Alumina prices have decreased by 50% YTD, positively impacting margins, with the alumina/aluminium linkage rate at historical lows of 11% compared to a long-term average of 17% [1] - **Future Market Outlook**: The forward curve indicates a slight contango, with expectations of a looser market by 2026 due to significant supply additions from Indonesia [1][2] Production and Demand Forecast - **2026 Projections**: Global primary aluminium production is expected to rise by 2.7% year-over-year (YoY), driven by a 5% increase in ex-China output, particularly from Indonesia, which is projected to add over 1.2 million tonnes of new supply [2] - **Market Surplus**: Anticipated modest surplus of approximately 400 kt in 2026 as demand growth slows to 2.1% YoY [2] Investment Recommendations - **Overweight Calls**: J.P. Morgan's key Overweight recommendations for aluminium exposure include: - Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN) - Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) - Press Metal (PMAH MK) [1] Financial Metrics of Key Companies - **Rio Tinto Ltd.**: Market cap of $118.2 billion, EV of $136.6 billion, with a target price of $137.0, indicating a 5% upside [5] - **Norsk Hydro**: Market cap of $13.8 billion, EV of $15.9 billion, with a target price of $74.0, indicating a 6% upside [5] - **Press Metal**: Market cap of $12.2 billion, EV of $13.1 billion, with a target price of $6.8, indicating a 9% upside [5] Additional Insights - **Alumina Production**: China's alumina production is projected to increase from 79.8 million tonnes in 2023 to 83.7 million tonnes in 2024 [19] - **Global Production and Demand Summary**: Global aluminium production is expected to rise from 143.3 million tonnes in 2023 to 146.9 million tonnes in 2024, with a corresponding increase in demand [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the aluminium industry, along with investment recommendations and financial metrics of key players.