Company Overview - Boksburg Ventures Inc. will change its name to Bighorn Metals Corp. effective July 22, 2025, to better align with its evolving business strategy and focus [1] - The Company holds an option to acquire the Loljuh Property in British Columbia, covering 1,656.73 hectares, which is prospective for porphyry copper-gold mineralization [10] Management Changes - Mr. Konstantinos "Kosta" Tsoutsis has been appointed as the new CEO, succeeding Mr. Johannes (Theo) van der Linde [3] - Mr. Kevin Cornish will serve as Corporate Secretary, and Mr. Reno Calabrigo has been appointed as a Director [3] - Mr. Tsoutsis has over 20 years of experience in finance and capital markets, having raised over CDN$30 million for various enterprises [4] - Mr. Calabrigo has a strong background in resource development and corporate finance, having overseen significant projects and secured over USD $10 million in project financing [6][7] Stock Options - The Company has granted Mr. Tsoutsis and Mr. Calabrigo each 25,000 stock options, exercisable at $0.25 per common share, expiring four years from the date of issuance [8][9] Recent Developments - Geochemical work in 2019 identified areas of anomalous gold and copper in soil on the Loljuh Property, with rock sampling returning significant values [11] - Recent work on the property included geological prospecting, mapping, and sampling across various grids [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **aluminium and copper industries** in the context of recent US tariffs and trade flows, particularly in Europe and North America [1][2][3]. Aluminium Insights - **US primary aluminium imports** decreased by **15%** from 2024 levels in April and May, primarily affecting Canadian volumes due to tariffs impacting consumer demand [2][12]. - The **Midwest premium** for aluminium is currently around **68 cents/lb**, needing to rise to **70-75 cents/lb** to incentivize flows to the US [2][20]. - **US aluminium scrap imports** surged by **35%** from March to May compared to 2024, driven by high-quality scrap to support rolling mills [2][27]. - The **market share** of Canadian aluminium has dropped from **70%** in 2024 to **63%**, while the UAE's share increased from approximately **11%** to over **20%** [13][16]. - The **Midwest premium** is close to pricing in the **50% tariff**, indicating a potential increase in buying activity as US inventories are low [19][22]. Copper Insights - **US refined copper imports** have nearly tripled year-to-date from 2024 levels, primarily from seaborne sources, but have slowed recently due to impending tariffs [3][34]. - A **front-loading** of **400 kt** of refined copper has occurred, providing a buffer against the COMEX-LME spread, but semi-fabricated product imports have been slower [3][36]. - The **COMEX-LME spread** is expected to reach **40%** by Q4 2025 and **45%** by Q1 2026 as inventory buffers are reduced [4][71]. - **US copper scrap** continues to be priced for export, with the discount for no.2 scrap offsetting the COMEX premium, indicating limited domestic processing capacity [49][50]. Market Outlook - Limited further upside is anticipated for the **Midwest premium**, but there is potential for **LME aluminium prices** to rise as US buying improves and global scrap availability tightens [4][33]. - The **tariffs** on aluminium have made it less competitive compared to copper, prompting some US can producers to explore alternative materials [33]. - **Indonesia** and **Chile** are being discussed as potential sources for exemptions from tariffs, with Indonesia's refined copper production expected to grow significantly by 2026 [63][70]. Additional Considerations - The **US aluminium industry** would require an investment of approximately **$30 billion** and **6 GW** of energy to add **4 million tonnes** of smelting capacity domestically [31]. - The **implied grade** of US scrap exports has been declining, suggesting that higher-grade scrap is remaining in the US for domestic use [57][59]. - The **tariff exemptions** and their implications continue to create volatility in the market, particularly for aluminium and copper [71][72]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the aluminium and copper industries.

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant decrease in net profit for the company, with a 70.1% quarter-on-quarter reduction to $164 million, despite a year-on-year increase of 720% [9] - The company faced increased tariff costs of approximately $115 million for aluminum imported from Canada, which impacted profitability [9] - The average realized price for third-party alumina decreased by 5.3% year-on-year and 34.3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting market pressures [2] Production and Operational Performance - Bauxite production in Q2 2025 was 9.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Alumina production was 2.351 million tons, down 7.4% year-on-year and slightly down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The total alumina shipment volume was 2.384 million tons, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year decrease but a 2.9% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] Financial Performance - Total revenue from third-party business was $3.018 billion, a decrease of 10.4% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 3.9% year-on-year [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for the alumina segment was $139 million, down 25.27% year-on-year and 79.07% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The adjusted operating cost per metric ton of produced alumina shipped was $323, reflecting a 3.2% year-on-year increase [2] Market Outlook - The company expects alumina production and shipment volumes for 2025 to remain stable, with estimates between 9.5 million to 9.7 million tons for production and 13.1 million to 13.3 million tons for shipments [18] - The forecast for aluminum production in 2025 is maintained at 2.3 million to 2.5 million tons, with a downward adjustment in shipment forecasts due to delays in the San Ciprián smelter restart [19]

Company Overview - Alcoa Corp. is a leading global producer of primary aluminum ingots and sheets, and it is one of the oldest companies in the industry [1] - The company operates as a vertically integrated entity, which enhances its operational efficiency and market positioning [1] Investment Focus - The analysis emphasizes a preference for value companies linked to commodity production, particularly those with sustained free cash flows, low leverage, and sustainable debt levels [1] - There is a focus on companies undergoing distress but with high recovery potential, especially in sectors like oil & gas, metals, and mining [1] - The analysis highlights the importance of companies in emerging markets that exhibit high margins and present good medium to long-term investment opportunities [1] Shareholder Value - The company is noted for maintaining a solid pro-shareholder attitude, which includes sustained buyback programs and dividend distributions over time [1]

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation's recent financial performance reflects the changing dynamics of the aluminum industry amid fluctuating commodity prices and geopolitical uncertainties [1] Financial Performance - Alcoa reported total third-party revenue of $3.0 billion for the second quarter, representing a 10% sequential decrease [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2025 was $313 million, surpassing Bank of America's estimate of $278 million and Bloomberg's consensus of $292 million [3] - Full-year 2025 EBITDA is now projected at $1.87 billion, an increase from the previous estimate of $1.62 billion, with earnings per share expected to rise to $3.19 from $2.52 [7] Segment Performance - In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased by 28% due to a decline in average realized prices, although this was partially offset by increased shipments [2] - The Aluminum segment's EBITDA outperformed expectations, likely due to lower energy costs and an improved product mix [3] Future Outlook - For the third quarter of 2025, Alcoa anticipates a $30 million sequential benefit, net of tariffs, and has raised third-quarter EBITDA estimates to $328 million from $205 million [6] - The company expects alumina prices to be supported by widespread curtailments in China, where over 80% of refineries are unprofitable, despite risks from new supply in Indonesia or India [5] Analyst Ratings - BofA analyst Lawson Winde reiterated an Underperform rating on Alcoa but raised the price forecast from $26 to $27 [2][4]

Market Overview - The stock market is currently experiencing noise that distracts investors from fundamental performance, particularly as the S&P 500 approaches all-time highs, making it difficult for portfolios to perform effectively [1] Economic Outlook - A potential bullish cycle is anticipated in the industrial and transportation sectors, which are cyclical and can guide the broader economy [2] Company Insights: 3M - 3M's stock has seen a significant increase of up to 22% over the past quarter, reaching a new 52-week high, with expectations for further upside due to anticipated lower interest rates [4][3] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) surprised analysts by reaching $1.88, exceeding the expected $1.77, indicating a potential end to a downtrend in EPS [5][6] - 3M's current P/E ratio stands at 19.9, significantly higher than the industrial sector average of 7.2, reflecting strong market confidence [7] Company Insights: Alcoa - Alcoa's stock is trading at $29.66, approximately 60% of its 52-week high, suggesting that the market has priced in risks associated with the metals industry [8] - Analysts, including Citigroup's Alexander Hacking, have upgraded Alcoa to a Buy with a price target of $42, indicating a potential upside of 47% from current levels [10] - Alcoa reported an EPS of $0.39, beating estimates, and revenue rose 3.9% year-over-year to $3.02 billion, with expectations for further EPS growth [11] Company Insights: United Airlines - United Airlines stock has increased by 33.4% over the past quarter, with a recent EPS of $3.87 beating estimates, indicating strong financial performance in the airline sector [12][14] - The consensus price target for United Airlines is $104.5, suggesting an additional upside of 18.1% [15] - Low oil prices are expected to positively impact margins, potentially leading to further EPS surprises in the upcoming quarter [16]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. aluminum companies are facing increased costs due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, specifically citing a cost increase of $115 million [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the direct financial impact of tariffs on the aluminum industry, indicating that the tariffs have significantly raised operational costs for companies in this sector [1]

Now you can get access to the latest and highest-quality analysis of recent Wall Street buying and selling ideas with just one subscription to Beyond the Wall Investing ! There is a free trial and a special discount of 10% for you. Join us today!My first (and so far the only) article covering Alcoa Corporation ( AA ) stock came out in late February 2024 with a "hold" rating. At the time, I argued that the Wall Street consensus figures that were priced in back thenDaniel Sereda is chief investment analyst at ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue decreased by 10% sequentially to $3 billion, with net income attributable to Alcoa at $164 million compared to $548 million in the prior quarter, resulting in earnings per share of $0.62 [10][11] - Adjusted EBITDA was $313 million, down $542 million sequentially, primarily due to lower alumina and aluminum prices and increased U.S. Section 232 tariff costs [11][12] - Year-to-date return on equity was positive at 22.5%, with cash flow from operations providing $488 million [15][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased by 28% due to lower average realized prices, partially offset by increased shipments [10] - The Aluminum segment saw a 3% increase in third-party revenue due to increased shipments and favorable currency impacts, despite a decrease in average realized prices [10][11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Alumina segment decreased by $525 million, while the Aluminum segment's adjusted EBITDA decreased by $37 million, impacted by U.S. Section 232 tariff costs [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alumina prices rebounded somewhat after a sharp decline, with over 80% of Chinese refineries operating at a deficit due to high bauxite prices [27] - U.S. Midwest premium increased to $0.68 per pound but remains below the estimated $0.75 needed to fully offset tariff costs [30][55] - Demand conditions remain steady in Europe and North America, with mixed sector performance; electrical and packaging sectors are performing well, while automotive is affected by tariff-related uncertainty [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its 2025 priorities, enhancing operational competitiveness, and navigating market dynamics to deliver long-term value [36] - Alcoa is advocating for trade policies that support both the company and the broader U.S. aluminum industry, while also redirecting Canadian production to non-U.S. customers to mitigate tariff impacts [9][77] - The long-term demand forecast for aluminum remains robust, driven by megatrends in transportation, construction, packaging, and electrical sectors [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while tariffs create near-term volatility, the broader outlook for aluminum demand remains strong, supported by global megatrends [23][26] - The company expects aluminum shipments to be adjusted to 2.5 to 2.6 million metric tons for the year, down from an initial estimate of 2.6 to 2.8 million metric tons due to disruptions at the San Ciprian smelter [16] - Management expressed confidence in navigating the challenges posed by tariffs and market dynamics, with plans to continue engaging with policymakers [8][77] Other Important Information - The company successfully concluded a five-year tax dispute in Australia with a favorable ruling, affirming no additional tax owed [7] - Alcoa's cash position at the end of the quarter was $1.5 billion, with plans to use proceeds from the sale of its stake in the Mauden joint ventures to pay related taxes and transaction fees [14][15] - The company is progressing with approvals for new mine regions in Western Australia, although timelines have been extended due to the complexity of the process [34][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of potential 50% tariffs on Brazil - Management indicated that the impact depends on whether alumina is excluded from the tariffs, with options to source from Western Australia if necessary [40][41] Question: Contingency plans for Western Australia - Management stated that no cost impact is anticipated for 2025 or 2026, with contingency plans in place to manage delays [42][46] Question: Tariff costs and Midwest premium offset - Management clarified that the second quarter tariff costs were approximately $115 million, with a Midwest premium uptick of about $60 million, resulting in margin compression [50][51] Question: San Ciprian cash burn expectations for 2026 - Management noted that while the smelter is expected to be profitable post-ramp-up, the refinery will likely incur losses [60][62] Question: Restarting spare capacity at Warrick - Management explained that restarting the fourth line at Warrick requires significant investment and time, making it contingent on tariff stability [68][70] Question: Discussions with the government regarding tariffs - Management emphasized ongoing advocacy efforts to educate the government on the aluminum market's tightness and the importance of U.S.-Canada supply chains [116][120] Question: Capital management and debt reduction - Management indicated progress in reducing net debt, with plans to evaluate capital allocation priorities once the target range is reached [120][121]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue decreased by 10% sequentially to $3 billion [11] - Net income attributable to Alcoa was $164 million, down from $548 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share decreasing to $0.62 [12] - Adjusted EBITDA was $313 million, reflecting a sequential decrease of $542 million primarily due to lower alumina and aluminum prices [12][14] - Year-to-date return on equity was positive at 22.5% [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue decreased by 28% due to lower average realized prices, partially offset by increased shipments [11] - In the Aluminum segment, third-party revenue increased by 3% due to increased shipments and favorable currency impacts, despite a decrease in average realized prices [11][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alumina prices rebounded somewhat after a sharp decline in the first quarter, with production cuts in China contributing to a more balanced market [29] - The U.S. Midwest premium increased to $0.68 per pound but remains below analyst estimates needed to fully offset tariff costs [32] - Demand conditions remain steady in Europe and North America, with mixed sector performance [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its 2025 priorities, enhancing operational competitiveness, and navigating market dynamics to deliver long-term value [40] - Alcoa is advocating for trade policies that support both the company and the broader U.S. aluminum industry [10] - The company is progressing approvals for new mine regions in Western Australia, although timelines have been extended [36][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while tariffs create near-term volatility, the broader outlook for aluminum demand remains robust, driven by megatrends in transportation, construction, and packaging [24][28] - The company expects to adjust its annual outlook for aluminum shipments due to reduced shipments from the San Ciprian smelter [17] Other Important Information - The company successfully concluded a five-year tax dispute in Australia with a favorable ruling [8] - Cash from operations was positive, providing $488 million, with a working capital release of $251 million [15] - The company ended the quarter with cash of $1.5 billion [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of potential 50% tariffs on Brazil - Management indicated that the impact depends on whether alumina is excluded from tariffs, with options to source from Western Australia if necessary [42][43] Question: Contingency plans for Western Australia - Management stated that they do not anticipate any cost impact in 2025 or 2026, with contingency plans in place for mining deeper in current pits [44] Question: Tariff costs and Midwest premium - Management clarified that the second quarter tariff costs were approximately $115 million, with a Midwest premium uptick of about $60 million, leading to margin compression [52][56] Question: San Ciprian smelter cash burn expectations - Management noted that while the smelter is expected to be profitable after full ramp-up, the refinery will struggle and move into a loss position for the rest of the year [64][66] Question: Restarting spare capacity at Warrick - Management explained that restarting the fourth line at Warrick would require significant investment and time, with current operations focused on three lines [71][72] Question: Discussions with the government regarding tariffs - Management emphasized ongoing advocacy efforts to educate the government on the aluminum market's tightness and the importance of Canadian supply chains [120] Question: Capital management and debt reduction - Management indicated that they are nearing the high end of their adjusted net debt target and will consider capital allocation priorities once that target is reached [124]