Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation has announced the permanent closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Western Australia following a production curtailment in June 2024, driven by multiple factors including the age of the facility [1] Company Summary - The decision to close the Kwinana refinery comes after extensive studies and analyses regarding its future, including options for restart and closure [1] - The refinery's production was curtailed in June 2024, indicating a significant operational shift for the company [1] Industry Summary - The closure of the Kwinana alumina refinery reflects broader trends in the alumina industry, where aging facilities may face increased scrutiny and potential shutdowns [1]

Core Insights - Investors are showing a bullish stance on Alcoa (NYSE: AA), with significant options activity indicating potential upcoming developments [1] - The overall sentiment among large traders is evenly split, with 50% bullish and 50% bearish positions [2] - Whales have targeted a price range for Alcoa between $25.0 and $37.0 over the last three months based on options volume and open interest [3] Options Activity - A total of 8 options trades for Alcoa were identified, with 7 calls amounting to $632,647 and 1 put totaling $113,460 [2] - The volume and open interest metrics provide insights into liquidity and investor interest in Alcoa's options, particularly within the $25.0 to $37.0 strike price range over the past 30 days [4] Market Overview - Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company, recognized as the world's largest bauxite miner and alumina refiner by production volume, and the eighth-largest aluminum producer [11] - The company has a consensus target price of $37.33 from three market analysts, with varying ratings from different firms [13][14] - Current trading volume for Alcoa is 5,301,441, with the stock price up by 3.13% to $33.73, indicating potential overbought conditions [16]

美国最大铝生产商美国铝业公司(AA.US)首席执行官比尔·奥普林格(Bill Oplinger)于周一接受采访时发出 警示：进口关税将扼杀美国铝需求，这与特朗普政府宣称"关税将重振本土产业"的说法形成直接对立。 作为美国铝业的领军企业，美国铝业的警告凸显了市场对关税政策的长期担忧。铝作为广泛应用于窗框 制造、福特F-150皮卡等产品的基础金属，其价格飙升将显著推高建筑及制造业成本。经济学家担忧， 这种成本压力将传导至终端消费，引发通胀并最终抑制市场需求。 奥普林格指出，受美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对进口铝加征50%关税的影响，美国国内铝价已大幅攀升。 他强调，若政策不作调整，最终将由美国消费者或企业股东为这部分涨价买单。 受美国铝需求疲软影响，美国铝业股价今年以来已累计下跌逾17%。目前，美国铝需求正受到出口大幅 下滑与工业用途缩减的双重拖累，市场疲软态势明显。 这一表态是对其1月言论的升级，当时他仅称关税将对需求产生"抑制效应"。回顾政策脉络，特朗普政 府在3月率先对进口铝征收25%关税，又于6月将税率翻倍至50%，宣称此举为保护美国铝产业、重振生 产所必需。奥普林格透露，这一税率已使美国铝业每年承担约8.5亿 ...

B. Riley将美国铝业的目标价从38美元上调至40美元，维持"买入"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Alcoa Corporation warns that import tariffs will severely impact U.S. aluminum demand, contradicting the Trump administration's claim that tariffs will revitalize domestic industries [1] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The 50% tariff on imported aluminum has led to a significant increase in domestic aluminum prices, with Alcoa estimating an annual tariff cost of approximately $850 million [1] - The CEO emphasizes that it is difficult to imagine demand not being affected when U.S. aluminum prices are systematically 50% higher than global prices [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Prior to the tariffs, buyers stockpiled aluminum, but now inventories are depleted, leading to a shift towards imports from Canada and other regions [2] - Despite strong order volumes for U.S. aluminum, the long-term outlook is concerning due to rising costs in construction and manufacturing, which could lead to inflation and reduced market demand [2] Group 3: Stock Performance - Alcoa's stock has declined over 17% this year, reflecting the weak demand for U.S. aluminum, which is being further impacted by a significant drop in exports and reduced industrial usage [2]

Market Overview - Major U.S. benchmarks rose less than 1% at the start of the week, primarily driven by gains from big tech corporations following Nvidia's $100 billion investment-partnership announcement with OpenAI [1] - Investor confidence may be temporary due to the growing market consensus of a potential government shutdown in the U.S. as Congress approaches the September 30 funding deadline without a clear agreement [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks for prudent investors include The Hanover Insurance Group (THG), Alcoa Corp. (AA), Pentair (PNR), Elbit Systems (ESLT), and Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS) as they bear low leverage and are considered safer options during market turmoil [2][10] - These stocks are expected to provide steady returns due to their solid growth prospects and improving revenue estimates for 2025 [10] Significance of Low-Leverage Stocks - Leverage refers to borrowing capital for operations and expansion, typically through debt financing, which can pose risks if not managed properly [4][5] - Companies with low debt-to-equity ratios are generally seen as less risky, especially during economic downturns [6][11] Stock Analysis Metrics - The debt-to-equity ratio is a key metric indicating financial risk, with a lower ratio reflecting improved solvency [7] - Stocks with a debt-to-equity ratio less than the industry median, a current price of at least $10, and substantial trading volume are preferred [12] Company Profiles - **The Hanover Insurance Group (THG)**: Focuses on insurance protection for businesses and personal items, with a projected 5.4% revenue improvement for 2025 and a 17.5% increase in earnings [15][16] - **Alcoa Corp. (AA)**: A leader in aluminum products, with a 6.1% expected sales growth for 2025 and a long-term earnings growth rate of 51.2% [17][18] - **Pentair (PNR)**: Provides sustainable water solutions, with a 1.5% sales growth estimate for 2025 following a strategic acquisition [19][20] - **Elbit Systems (ESLT)**: A leader in defense technology, with a projected 13.8% sales improvement for 2025 and a long-term earnings growth rate of 23.3% [20][21] - **Leonardo DRS (DRS)**: Develops advanced defense products, with a 10.9% expected sales growth for 2025 and a long-term earnings growth rate of 17.3% [22][23]

Company Overview - Stearman Resources Inc. will change its name to UraniumX Discovery Corp. to align with its strategic focus on uranium projects in the Athabasca Basin of Saskatchewan [1][2] - The company currently holds a 100% interest in the NeoCore Uranium Property, which consists of 6 mineral claims covering 13,012 hectares in the Athabasca Basin [4] - Additionally, the company has an option for up to a 70% interest in the Murphy Lake Uranium Property, covering 609 hectares, and owns a 100% interest in the Zoo Bay Uranium Property, which consists of 15 mineral claims covering 19,850 hectares [4] Strategic Direction - The name change to UraniumX Discovery Corp. reflects the company's commitment to meeting the growing demand for global electrification [3] - The company aims to unlock the potential of its three uranium projects located in Saskatchewan's Northern Athabasca Basin [3] Corporate Actions - The company has granted 1,000,000 restricted share units to a senior officer as part of its Restricted Share Unit Plan [3]

Group 1 - Alcoa Corporation, in collaboration with Eurasia Group, has published a new white paper [1]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminium and Alumina Producers - **Global Demand**: Increased by 3% year-to-date (YTD) through July, with China up by 4% and the Rest of the World (RoW) up by 2% [1][15] - **Global Production**: Softer growth at 1.5% globally, with China at +2% and RoW flat [1] - **Global Inventories**: Remain low at approximately 1,125kt, but have increased by about 300kt since late June, still below 2024 levels and near decade lows for this time of year [1] Key Insights - **Alumina Prices**: Decreased from approximately $380/t in late July to $337/t at spot, with the alumina/aluminium linkage rate at 13%, below the average of 17% [1] - **Aluminium Prices**: Up by 5% YTD, with forward curves in slight contango [1] - **Market Outlook**: J.P. Morgan's Global Commodities Research team anticipates a balanced market this year and a mild surplus next year [1] Investment Recommendations - **Overweight Calls**: - Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN) - Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) - Press Metal (PMAH MK) [1] Financial Metrics of Key Companies - **Rio Tinto Ltd.**: - Market Cap: $108.3 billion - EV: $126.7 billion - Price Target: $123.0 (6% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 5.7 [4] - **Norsk Hydro**: - Market Cap: $13.1 billion - EV: $15.2 billion - Price Target: $73.0 (11% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 5.1 [4] - **Press Metal**: - Market Cap: $10.9 billion - EV: $11.8 billion - Price Target: $5.9 (6% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 16.3 [4] Consensus Estimates - **Rio Tinto NPAT**: - FY26: $9,661 million (1% below consensus) - FY27: $9,757 million (8% below consensus) [9] - **Norsk Hydro NPAT**: - FY26: $14,939 million (23% above consensus) - FY27: $11,972 million (15% below consensus) [9] Production and Demand Summary - **China Aluminium Production**: Expected to increase from 24.9 Mt in July 2024 to 25.4 Mt in July 2025 (2% increase) [15] - **Global Aluminium Demand**: Projected to rise from 41.4 Mt in July 2024 to 42.7 Mt in July 2025 (3% increase) [15] Additional Insights - **Alumina Production in China**: Expected to rise from 79.8 Mt in 2023 to 83.7 Mt in 2024 [17] - **Global Production Trends**: Year-to-date production shows a 2.6% increase globally, with specific regional variations [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard, highlighting the current state and outlook of the aluminium industry, along with specific investment recommendations and financial metrics for key companies.

Group 1: Centene Corp (CNC) - Noteworthy options trading activity with a total volume of 109,478 contracts, representing approximately 10.9 million underlying shares, which is 80.6% of CNC's average daily trading volume of 13.6 million shares over the past month [1] - High volume observed for the $35 strike call option expiring September 19, 2025, with 7,716 contracts traded, representing approximately 771,600 underlying shares [1] Group 2: Dave & Busters Entertainment Inc (PLAY) - Options trading volume of 6,146 contracts, representing approximately 614,600 underlying shares, or 76.7% of PLAY's average daily trading volume of 801,695 shares over the past month [3] - Significant volume for the $22 strike put option expiring September 19, 2025, with 1,623 contracts traded, representing approximately 162,300 underlying shares [3] Group 3: Alcoa Corporation (AA) - Options trading volume of 38,230 contracts, representing approximately 3.8 million underlying shares, or 72.4% of AA's average daily trading volume of 5.3 million shares over the past month [5] - High volume noted for the $35 strike call option expiring October 17, 2025, with 10,547 contracts traded, representing approximately 1.1 million underlying shares [5]