研究报告 Research Report [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$64.85 目标价 HK$97.80 HTI ESG 3.5-3.9-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$693.58bn / US$88.62bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$337.08mn 发行股票数目 10,695mn 自由流通股 (%) 100% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$74.55-HK$49.95 注：现价 HK$64.85 为 2025 年 05 月 23 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 19.1% 11.8% 7.0% 绝对值（美元） 18.1% 11.0% 6.7% 相对 MSCI China 13.6% 13.8% -13.6% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Dec-24A Dec-25E Dec-26E Dec-27E Revenue ...

Company Performance - Apollo Commercial Finance (ARI) has returned approximately 10.7% year-to-date, outperforming the average gain of 2.7% in the Finance sector [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARI's full-year earnings has increased by 33.8% over the past 90 days, indicating improving analyst sentiment and a positive earnings outlook [3] - ARI is part of the REIT and Equity Trust industry, which has seen a decline of about 4.8% this year, further highlighting ARI's strong performance relative to its peers [5] Industry Context - The Finance sector ranks 3 in the Zacks Sector Rank, which evaluates 16 different sector groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks [2] - The REIT and Equity Trust industry, where ARI operates, is currently ranked 167 in the Zacks Industry Rank [5] - Another stock in the Finance sector, AIA (AAGIY), has also outperformed the sector with a year-to-date return of 9.9% [4][6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - AIA Group has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strong confidence in its stock value and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [2][3]. Share Buyback Details - On May 12, AIA repurchased 2 million shares at a price range of HKD 62.050 to HKD 63.700, totaling HKD 125 million [2]. - The stock closed at HKD 63.200 on the same day, reflecting a 2.68% increase with a total trading volume of HKD 20.50 billion [2]. - Since May 8, the company has conducted buybacks for three consecutive days, acquiring a total of 8.5 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 524 million, with the stock rising by 2.35% during this period [2]. - Year-to-date, AIA has executed 40 buybacks, totaling 152 million shares and an aggregate buyback amount of HKD 8.21 billion [2]. Historical Buyback Data - The buyback details include various dates, share quantities, highest and lowest prices, and total amounts spent, showcasing a consistent strategy to enhance shareholder value [3]. - For instance, on May 9, 150,000 shares were repurchased at a maximum price of HKD 61.750, costing HKD 92.19 million [3]. - The buyback activity has been frequent, with significant amounts spent on shares at various price points throughout the year, indicating a proactive approach to managing capital and stock performance [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [4][7]. Core Insights - AIA Group, a century-old life insurance giant, has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with a record high after-tax operating profit of $6.605 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1]. - The company has a strong capital adequacy ratio of 257% in 2024, significantly exceeding regulatory requirements, indicating robust financial health [1][34]. - The new business value increased by 18% year-on-year to $4.712 billion, with a value rate of 54.5%, showcasing strong growth momentum [1]. Summary by Sections 1. A Century of AIA, A Model of Life Insurance - AIA Group is the largest independent listed life insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region, with operations in 18 markets [14]. - The company has a diversified ownership structure, with major shareholders being institutional investors, which supports effective management decision-making [20][22]. 2. High-Quality Agents and High-Value Products Build Competitive Advantage - The agent channel has been optimized, with a new business value growth of 15.2% in 2024, and a new business value rate of 67.6%, maintaining industry leadership [2]. - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with leading banks in the Asia-Pacific region, enhancing its reach to high-value customers [2]. 3. Focus on the Asia-Pacific Market to Share Development Dividends - AIA's strategy in mainland China, known as "Split Reform Subsidiary," has accelerated market expansion, achieving a new business value rate of 56.1% in 2024, significantly above the industry average [3]. - The Hong Kong market has shown recovery, with a 23% year-on-year increase in new business value, regaining its top position in the group's regional contributions [3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve insurance revenue of $20.841 billion, $22.436 billion, and $24.168 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of $7.112 billion, $7.701 billion, and $8.354 billion [4]. - The average PEV valuation since 2016 has been around 2.1x, higher than domestic insurance companies, indicating a strong market position [4].

Core Points - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Modern Services Index (H300 Modern Services) reported a decline of 1.57% over the past month, an increase of 8.79% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 11.98% [1] - The index is composed of securities selected from the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Index based on industry classification, reflecting the overall performance of theme securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The index's top ten holdings include Tencent Holdings (18.23%), Alibaba-W (13.4%), HSBC Holdings (8.89%), Meituan-W (4.78%), and others, with a total market share of 100% in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Industry Composition - The industry composition of the index shows that finance accounts for 34.44%, communication services for 28.03%, consumer discretionary for 24.52%, real estate for 4.33%, utilities for 3.69%, industrials for 2.20%, healthcare for 1.63%, and information technology for 1.17% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, with provisions for temporary adjustments in special circumstances [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price of HK$89, indicating a potential upside of 53.2% from the current price of HK$58.10 [4][29]. Core Insights - AIA Group reported a strong growth in Value of New Business (VONB) of 13% year-on-year (YoY) in Q1 2025, driven by a 3 percentage point increase in profit margin and a 7% growth in Annualized New Premium (ANP) [1][2]. - The VONB margin reached a record high of 57.5%, attributed to a gradual shift in product mix towards participating long-term savings [1][2]. - The company initiated a US$1.6 billion share buyback program, expected to be completed faster than initially planned, reflecting AIA's commitment to shareholder returns [1][2]. Summary by Sections VONB Growth - Group VONB increased by 13% YoY to US$1.5 billion in Q1 2025, with agency VONB growing by 21% to US$1.22 billion, accounting for 75% of the total [2][3]. - The cooperative VONB saw a decline of 2% to US$400 million due to increased competition in Hong Kong and regulatory tightening in China [2][3]. - Excluding China, bank insurance VONB grew by 21% YoY [2]. Financial Performance - The report projects a total shareholder return of 6.2% for FY2025, with a dividend yield of 3.3% and a buyback yield of 2.9% [1][3]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2023 to 2026 [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is valued at a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 1.05 times and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.65 times for FY2025 [3][4]. - The report estimates a forward operating return on equity (ROE) of 15% over the next three years [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299.HK) [1] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, AIA Group achieved a new business value of USD 1.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% (fixed exchange rate) and 12.8% (actual exchange rate) [5][11] - The new business value margin reached 57.5%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product structure optimization [5][11] - Annualized new premiums amounted to USD 2.62 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [5][11] - Total weighted premium income was USD 12.68 billion, up 13.0% year-on-year [5][11] Market Performance - In the mainland China market, new business value grew by 8% year-on-year, with a new business value margin exceeding 50% [6] - The Hong Kong market saw a 16% year-on-year increase in new business value, benefiting from balanced growth in local and MCV businesses [6] - Southeast Asia markets, particularly Thailand and Singapore, experienced rapid growth in new business value, driven by regulatory changes and strategic partnerships [7] Share Buyback Plan - AIA Group announced a new USD 1.6 billion share buyback plan, expected to be completed within three months [8] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts AIA Group's net profit for 2025-2027 to be USD 8.13 billion, USD 8.84 billion, and USD 9.75 billion respectively [11][12] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are 9.9, 9.1, and 8.2 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The new business value (NBV) for the first quarter of 2025 increased by 13% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the new business value rate [7] - The annualized new premium (ANP) reached 2.62 billion USD, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [7] - The NBV margin improved to 57.5%, up by 3 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for continued recovery in 2025 [7] - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan of 1.6 billion USD, which began on April 14 [7] - The forecast for after-tax operating profit for 2025-2027 is maintained at 7.24 billion, 7.98 billion, and 8.71 billion USD respectively, indicating a positive outlook [7] Financial Performance Summary - Insurance revenue is projected to grow from 19.31 billion USD in 2024 to 21.90 billion USD in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.43% [20] - After-tax operating profit is expected to increase from 6.61 billion USD in 2024 to 8.71 billion USD in 2027, reflecting a growth trajectory [20] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.64 USD in 2024 to 0.92 USD in 2027 [20] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 11.00 in 2024 to 7.66 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [20]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 0.51% while the Tech Index rose by 1.35% [1] - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) saw an increase of approximately 8% in its stock price [1] - AIA Group (01299.HK) experienced a rise of over 6% in its stock price [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 85.00 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) showed a robust growth of 13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a 16% increase in Hong Kong and an 8% increase in mainland China when adjusted for economic assumptions [1][2][3]. - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9-11% in earnings per share (EPS) from 2023 to 2026 [1]. - The Southeast Asian market, particularly Thailand and Singapore, demonstrated strong growth in NBV, driven by regulatory changes and improved agent productivity [4]. Summary by Sections New Business Value (NBV) Performance - In Q1 2025, the NBV in Hong Kong increased by 16%, continuing a trend of double-digit growth despite a high base from the previous year [3]. - In mainland China, the NBV saw a stable growth of 8% when excluding the impact of economic assumption adjustments, although it faced a decline of 7% due to a reduction in long-term investment return assumptions [2]. Market Expansion and Channel Performance - The agent channel contributed significantly to the company's NBV, with a 21% year-on-year growth, accounting for over 75% of the total NBV [1]. - The company is expanding its operations in mainland China, with new approvals to operate in provinces such as Anhui, Shandong, Chongqing, and Zhejiang [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to USD 0.63, USD 0.70, and USD 0.78 respectively, with a target price maintained at HKD 85 based on book value and embedded value methods [5]. - The projected gross premium income for 2025 is USD 20.524 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 6.27% [7][22].