AIA Group (1299.HK) 1H25 Preview Summary Company Overview - AIA Group is set to report its 2Q/1H25 results on August 21, 2025, before market opening [1] Key Financial Metrics - **Value of New Business (VONB)**: Expected to grow by 14% year-over-year (yoy) to US$2,809 million in 1H25, with a faster growth rate of 16% yoy in 2Q25 compared to 13% in 1Q25 [7][12] - **Net Free Surplus Generation (NFSG)**: Anticipated to increase by 9% yoy to US$2.442 billion in 1H25, up from a 2% increase in FY24 [9][12] - **Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT)**: Expected to rise by 3% yoy to US$3.49 billion in 1H25, slower than the 6% growth in FY24 [8][12] - **Embedded Value (EV)**: Projected to increase by 2% to US$70.1 billion in 1H25 [10][12] Market Performance Insights - **Hong Kong**: Anticipated to be the main driver of VONB growth, with a projected increase of 23% yoy in 1H25 [6][11] - **Mainland China**: Expected to see a decline of 6% yoy in VONB for 1H25, primarily due to negative impacts from economic assumption changes [6][11] - **Thailand**: Forecasted to show a decline in VONB in 2Q25 due to demand being pulled forward ahead of regulatory changes [6][11] Strategic Focus Areas - Emphasis on underlying growth drivers such as: 1. Growth in mainland China and newly established regions 2. Sales momentum in Hong Kong 3. Factors contributing to NFSG growth, including operational variances and capital efficiency improvements [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been adjusted to HK$83 from HK$90, based on a 1.4X FY26E P/EV, implying an 18% upside [3] - The medium-term Return on Embedded Value (ROEV) is estimated at 14.7%, with a Cost of Equity (COE) of 11.2% and a long-term growth rate of 2% [3][24] Additional Insights - The company does not expect any additional buybacks for FY25, suggesting a focus on growth rather than capital return strategies [2] - The anticipated increase in interim dividends per share (DPS) is 8% yoy to US$0.062 [10][12] - AIA's valuation methodology has shifted from a discounted model-based valuation to a P/EV multiple approach, reflecting a greater emphasis on capital generation capabilities [18][23] Conclusion - AIA Group is positioned for growth in 1H25, with strong performance expected in Hong Kong, while facing challenges in mainland China. The strategic focus on underlying growth drivers and adjustments in valuation methodology indicate a proactive approach to navigating market dynamics.

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.53% and the Tech Index down by 0.51% [1] - AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) experienced a decline of approximately 2% [1] - Bilibili Inc. (09626.HK) saw a drop of over 2% [1]

Group 1 - AIA Group's shares were traded through a block trade at HKD 67.95 per share [1] - A total of 3.47 million shares were involved in the transaction [1]

Core Points - The Chuanghua Trading Service Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 Index (CES100) experienced a decline of 0.47%, closing at 5303.57 points with a trading volume of 96.677 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the CES100 index has increased by 3.56%, by 16.52% over the last three months, and by 25.56% year-to-date [1] Index Composition - The top ten holdings of the CES100 index are: HSBC Holdings (10.21%), Tencent Holdings (9.83%), Alibaba-W (9.56%), Xiaomi Group-W (7.99%), Meituan-W (5.82%), AIA Group (5.55%), Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (4.13%), Standard Chartered Group (2.51%), Prudential (1.93%), and Kuaishou-W (1.61%) [2] - The index is fully composed of securities from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the CES100 index includes: Financials (27.78%), Consumer Discretionary (26.88%), Communication Services (13.71%), Information Technology (10.34%), Real Estate (5.45%), Health Care (4.84%), Utilities (3.96%), Industrials (3.34%), Consumer Staples (3.17%), and Materials (0.53%) [2] Fund Tracking - Public funds tracking the CES100 index include: Huaan CES Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 ETF Link A, Huaan CES Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 ETF Link C, and Huaan CES Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 ETF [2]

Group 1 - The chairman of AIA, Mark Tucker, will succeed the current chairman, who is retiring after 64 years with the company, indicating a leadership transition within the organization [1] - AIA's chairman expressed optimism about the insurance industry's future, particularly in the silver-haired market and wealth management, highlighting significant growth potential due to an aging population [1][2] - The increasing proportion of individuals aged 60 and above, who generally possess savings and financial independence, presents a substantial market opportunity for retirement, annuity, and healthcare products [1] Group 2 - The rise of the middle class in China, which is adept at both earning and saving, creates a significant opportunity for wealth management services within the insurance sector [2] - Insurance companies can offer unique advantages over banks in wealth management, such as packaging products for estate planning and providing tax-related advice for overseas inheritance tax issues [2] - AIA's chairman identified interest rate challenges as a critical issue for the insurance industry, which can lead to low yields and difficulties if assets and liabilities are mismatched [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - AIA Group has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder value through significant buyback activities [2][3]. Share Buyback Activities - On July 11, AIA repurchased 4 million shares at prices ranging from HKD 68.250 to HKD 70.600, totaling HKD 280 million [2]. - The stock closed at HKD 69.650 on the same day, reflecting a 2.28% increase, with a total trading volume of HKD 2.726 billion [2]. - Since May 8, the company has conducted buybacks for 46 consecutive days, acquiring a total of 146 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 9.835 billion, during which the stock price has risen by 15.11% [2]. Year-to-Date Buyback Summary - Year-to-date, AIA has executed 83 buyback transactions, acquiring a total of 289 million shares for a total expenditure of HKD 17.521 billion [3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - AIA Group has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder value through buybacks, which may reflect confidence in the company's future performance [2][3]. Share Buyback Details - On July 9, AIA repurchased 4 million shares at prices ranging from HKD 68.050 to HKD 68.950, totaling HKD 274 million. The stock closed at HKD 68.500, down 0.29% on that day, with a total trading volume of HKD 1.488 billion [2]. - Since May 8, AIA has conducted buybacks for 44 consecutive days, acquiring a total of 138 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 9.249 billion, during which the stock price increased by 13.21% [2]. - Year-to-date, AIA has completed 81 buyback transactions, repurchasing a total of 281 million shares for a total expenditure of HKD 16.935 billion [3]. Buyback Price Trends - The buyback prices have varied, with the highest price recorded at HKD 72.400 and the lowest at HKD 54.250 during the recent buyback activities [3][4]. - The buyback activity reflects a strategic approach to manage share supply and potentially support the stock price amidst market fluctuations [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 AIA Insurance Beijing Good Life Festival" was held with a focus on promoting health and community engagement, attracting nearly 8,000 participants and integrating educational elements on financial consumer rights and fraud prevention [1][4][10]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The festival featured diverse activities including a 5km fun walk, interactive games for families, and food markets, all designed to enhance the experience of participants and promote a healthy lifestyle [4][6]. - The event included a stage area for performances, where professional instructors and DJs engaged attendees in health and wellness activities, creating a vibrant atmosphere [6]. - A significant aspect of the festival was the integration of public welfare elements, with charity sales supporting environmental and health initiatives, showcasing the company's commitment to social responsibility [8]. Group 2: Company Philosophy and Future Plans - AIA Beijing emphasizes a customer-first service philosophy, aiming to provide enriching health and cultural activities to its clients [1][4]. - The festival has attracted over 50,000 participants cumulatively, reflecting the company's dedication to innovating insurance services and integrating them into customers' lives [10]. - The company plans to continue advocating for healthy lifestyles and improving service quality in collaboration with the community [10].

证券时报·数据宝统计，友邦保险在港交所公告显示，7月7日以每股68.050港元至69.150港元的价格回购 550.00万股，回购金额达3.77亿港元。该股当日收盘价68.400港元，下跌1.08%，全天成交额20.26亿港 元。 （文章来源：证券时报网） | 日期 | 回购股数（万股） | 回购最高价（港元） | 回购最低价（港元） | 回购金额（万港元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.07.07 | 550.00 | 69.150 | 68.050 | 37676.01 | | 2025.07.04 | 700.00 | 69.800 | 68.800 | 48447.23 | | 2025.07.03 | 401.82 | 72.400 | 70.650 | 28804.99 | | 2025.07.02 | 300.00 | 71.500 | 70.850 | 21358.99 | | 2025.06.30 | 250.00 | 71.800 | 70.500 | 17745.29 | | 2025.06.27 | 250.00 | 72.700 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the China Hong Kong Stock Connect Preferred 50 Index has shown positive growth, with a year-to-date increase of 18.92% as of the latest report [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Hong Kong Stock Connect Preferred 50 Index (CESP50) closed at 2983.75 points, with a trading volume of 60.71 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has increased by 0.47%, and over the last three months, it has risen by 3.43% [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and reflects the overall performance of the top 50 blue-chip securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include HSBC Holdings (10.29%), Tencent Holdings (9.82%), Alibaba-W (9.1%), Xiaomi Group-W (7.15%), and others [1]. Group 3: Sector Allocation - The index's holdings are entirely composed of stocks from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. - Sector allocations within the index include Financials (40.44%), Consumer Discretionary (23.29%), Communication Services (16.04%), Information Technology (9.17%), and others [2].