ALERT COMES AT LOW POINT FOR ABBV AND SIGNALS MAJOR REVERSAL OF OVER 15 POINTSToday, AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV) experienced a Power Inflow, a significant event for those who follow where smart money goes and value order flow analytics in their trading decisions. Today, at 11:00 AM on April 9th, a significant trading signal occurred for AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV) as it demonstrated a Power Inflow at a price of $164.86. This indicator is crucial for traders who want to know directionally where institutions and so-called "s ...

Core Viewpoint - AbbVie has shown resilience in its financial performance despite facing challenges from the loss of exclusivity of its blockbuster drug Humira, with strategic acquisitions and strong growth in other product lines [1][17]. Group 1: Financial Performance - AbbVie’s stock price increased by 16% since November 2023, outperforming the S&P 500 index which returned 9.41% [1]. - Humira's revenue peaked at $21 billion in 2022 but is projected to decline by approximately 38% in 2024 to $8.993 billion due to the entry of biosimilars [2]. - The total revenue for AbbVie in Q4 was $15.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.1% [6]. Group 2: Product Performance - AbbVie’s immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, have compensated for Humira's losses, with Skyrizi's revenue expected to reach $11.718 billion in 2024, a 50.9% increase, and Rinvoq's revenue projected at $5.971 billion, a 50.5% increase [4]. - The oncology segment, represented by Imbruvica, is facing competition, leading to a revenue decline of 6.9% to $3.347 billion in 2024, but Venclexta and Elahere are showing strong growth [5]. - AbbVie’s neuroscience efforts are yielding a 16.6% growth, driven by Botox Therapeutic and Vraylar [6]. Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - AbbVie acquired ImmunoGen for $10 billion, enhancing its oncology portfolio with the ADC drug Elahere, approved for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer [1]. - The company also invested $8.7 billion in Cerevel Therapeutics, focusing on neuroscience products [1]. Group 4: Financial Guidance and Valuation - AbbVie adjusted its 2025 earnings guidance, projecting adjusted diluted EPS between $11.99 and $12.19, with a negative impact from acquired IPR&D expenses [7]. - The company maintains a stable operating cash flow between $18 billion and $22 billion annually, providing liquidity and leverage [8][9]. - A discounted cash flow analysis suggests AbbVie is undervalued by approximately 10% based on historical free cash flow margins [11]. Group 5: Market Outlook - AbbVie forecasts that total revenue from Rinvoq and Skyrizi will exceed $31 billion by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of about 21% [4]. - The company’s strong cash generation capabilities and strategic positioning in immunology and oncology suggest a positive outlook despite challenges [17].

Market Overview - Stock markets experienced a significant surge following U.S. President Donald Trump's unexpected reversal on tariffs, with a universal 10% rate applied to all trade partners except China [1][2] Automotive Industry - Major automotive companies saw substantial gains, with Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz Group all increasing by over 9%, and Stellantis rising by 14% [3] - In Asia, Nissan rose by 9.5%, Honda by 8.4%, and Toyota by 7.7%, reflecting a positive market reaction to Trump's 90-day pause announcement [4] Banking Sector - The banking sector recorded sharp gains of 8.61% at market open, recovering from previous declines, with European banks like Banco Santander, Deutsche Bank, and Intesa Sanpaolo rising by 9-11% [5] - UBS also saw a rise of 9.5%, indicating a rebound in investor confidence [5][6] Pharmaceutical Sector - Pharmaceutical stocks rebounded, with Novo Nordisk gaining 10% and other major firms like Novartis and Bayer increasing by over 5% [9] - The sector had previously faced uncertainty due to potential tariffs, but the recent market movement suggests a temporary reprieve [10] Luxury Goods Sector - Luxury stocks, including LVMH and Kering, experienced gains, benefiting from their strong pricing power and ability to pass on costs to consumers [11] - However, analysts caution that a broader economic downturn could impact consumer spending even among wealthier shoppers [12][13] Mining Industry - Mining stocks in Europe performed well, with Anglo American shares jumping 11% and other companies like Antofagasta and Glencore trading up by more than 8% [14] - Despite previous warnings about the impact of trade policies on demand for metals, the sector showed resilience in the current market environment [14]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of independent research and verification of information before making investment decisions [2][3]. Group 1 - The article highlights that past performance does not guarantee future results, indicating a need for caution among investors [3]. - It stresses that the opinions presented are based on probabilistic analysis rather than absolute certainty, which reflects the inherent volatility and risk in stock investments [2][3]. - The content is intended for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as personalized investment advice, underscoring the necessity for investors to assess their financial circumstances independently [2][3].

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks, on the day he signs energy-related executive orders at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 8, 2025. Leah Millis | ReutersA version of this article first appeared in CNBC's Healthy Returns newsletter, which brings the latest health-care news straight to your inbox. Subscribe here to receive future editions.President Donald Trump doubled down on plans to soon impose "major" tariffs on pharmaceuticals imported into the U.S. It comes after drugmakers breathed a t ...

Core Viewpoint - AbbVie has received marketing approval from the European Commission for its drug Rinvoq to treat giant cell arteritis (GCA), marking the eighth approved indication for this medication [1][4]. Group 1: Rinvoq Approval and Clinical Data - Rinvoq (15 mg, once daily) is the first JAK inhibitor approved in the EU for GCA and the first oral advanced therapy for this condition [2]. - The approval was based on the phase III SELECT-GCA study, which demonstrated that 46% of GCA patients treated with Rinvoq achieved sustained remission compared to 29% in the placebo group [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Impact - Rinvoq generated sales of nearly $6 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 50.4% due to ongoing label expansions [6]. - Combined sales of Rinvoq and AbbVie's other drug Skyrizi reached $17.7 billion in 2024, with expectations to exceed $31 billion by 2027 driven by market growth and new indications [8][9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Rinvoq and Skyrizi have shown strong performance against other novel therapies in clinical studies, providing a competitive advantage in the market [8]. - Other JAK inhibitors, such as Pfizer's Xeljanz and Lilly/Incyte's Olumiant, are also present in the market, with Olumiant generating sales of $957.4 million and Xeljanz $1.17 billion in 2024 [10][11].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Biopharma in North America - **Market Analysis**: The latest weekly Total Prescription (TRx) year-over-year (YoY) growth for the week ending March 28, 2025, was +2.1%, a decrease from +2.5% the previous week and +3.1% over the past 12 weeks [1][2] Core Insights - **TRx Growth**: For the week ended March 28, the US total market weekly TRx YoY change was +2.1%, compared to +0.4% a year ago. The rolling 4-week TRx YoY was +2.9%, and the rolling 12-week TRx YoY was +3.1% [2] - **Extended Unit Growth**: Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +0.7%, which is below the TRx YoY growth [2] - **Sequential Growth**: Sequential weekly TRx growth was -1.8%, compared to -1.5% the week before [2] Company-Specific Developments - **Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)**: - Cobenfy, approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024, had approximately 1,570 scripts for the week, up from ~1,440 the previous week. To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at ~2-3 times the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches [3] - The consensus estimate for Cobenfy has declined to $160 million from $196 million, implying ~125K TRx are required to meet this estimate [3] - **Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)**: - Journavx, approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025, recorded approximately 2,230 scripts for the week, up from ~1,760 the previous week. To achieve the 2025 sales estimate of $87 million, approximately 229K and 441K total scripts are needed for 14-day and 7-day script durations, respectively [4] Competitive Landscape - **Biosimilars**: The TRx share chart for Stelara biosimilars was added, with Amgen's Wezlana launched on January 17, 2025, and Teva/Alvotech's Selarsdi launched on February 21, 2025 [5] - **Launch Comparisons**: A comparison chart for Descovy vs. Apretude was added, with anticipation for FDA approval of GILD's Lenacapavir [8] Seasonal Trends - **Vaccine Tracking**: Seasonal respiratory vaccine tracking exhibits were added, noting that RSV vaccine volumes are tracking ~65% below last year's levels, and COVID vaccine volumes are also down year-over-year [9] Notable Drug Performance - **Key Products**: - Mounjaro and Zepbound from Eli Lilly are being tracked, with Mounjaro showing significant growth [10] - The oral psoriasis market is being monitored, particularly BMY's Sotyktu launch against AMGN's Otezla [10] Pricing and Market Dynamics - **Immunology Pricing Analysis**: Updated charts for 4Q24 show how volume from additional indications impacts price per script for various drugs [11] - **Biosimilar Adoption**: Comprehensive analysis of biosimilar adoption across various branded drugs was presented [12] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: The IQVIA databases differentiate between prescription and sales trends, with TRx representing total prescriptions dispensed, including refills [27] - **Sales Dynamics**: The report emphasizes that IQVIA sales dollars reflect list prices and do not account for rebates or discounts, indicating a need for careful interpretation of sales data [43] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting industry trends, company-specific developments, and competitive dynamics within the biopharma sector.

Core Insights - AbbVie announced that the European Commission granted marketing authorization for RINVOQ® (upadacitinib) for the treatment of giant cell arteritis (GCA) in adult patients, making it the first and only oral JAK inhibitor approved in the EU for this condition [1][4]. Group 1: Product Approval and Significance - The approval of RINVOQ provides a new treatment option for patients with GCA, a condition that primarily affects older adults and can lead to severe complications such as vision loss [2][4]. - RINVOQ's approval is based on the results from the Phase 3 SELECT-GCA trial, which demonstrated significant efficacy in achieving sustained remission and reducing steroid exposure compared to placebo [4][8]. Group 2: Clinical Trial Results - In the SELECT-GCA trial, 46.4% of patients receiving RINVOQ achieved sustained remission at week 52, compared to 29.0% in the placebo group (p=0.002) [5][8]. - Key secondary endpoints showed that 34.3% of patients on RINVOQ experienced at least one disease flare, compared to 55.6% in the placebo group (p=0.001), and cumulative steroid exposure was significantly lower in the RINVOQ group (median exposure of 1615 mg vs. 2882 mg, p<0.001) [5][6]. Group 3: Safety Profile - The safety profile of RINVOQ in the trial was consistent with other approved indications, with serious infections occurring in 5.7% of the RINVOQ group compared to 10.7% in the placebo group [3][40]. - No major adverse cardiac events were reported in the RINVOQ group, while two events occurred in the placebo group [6][40]. Group 4: Broader Context of RINVOQ - RINVOQ is already approved for multiple indications in the EU, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, and ulcerative colitis, marking the eighth approved indication for the drug [4][10]. - The drug is a selective and reversible JAK inhibitor, which is being studied for various immune-mediated inflammatory diseases [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is facing significant challenges due to China's imposition of a 34% retaliatory tariff on all U.S. imports, raising concerns about potential price increases for drugs and the risk of a global trade war [1][2][6]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Major large-cap pharmaceutical companies experienced substantial stock declines, with AbbVie, Amgen, Merck, and Pfizer losing 7.3%, 5.0%, 5.7%, and 5.4% respectively [3]. - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk also saw declines of 6.5% and 6.8%, influenced by the Trump administration's decision not to expand Medicare coverage for weight-loss drugs [4]. - The overall market was affected, with the S&P 500 declining 6%, the Dow falling 5.5%, and the Nasdaq dropping 5.8% [5]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The tariff policy, while aimed at boosting U.S. investments, is likely to increase costs for drugmakers, particularly affecting those with thin profit margins, such as generic and biosimilar manufacturers [6]. - Potential supply shortages may arise as some countries exporting drugs or APIs to the U.S. might withdraw from the market, disrupting the global supply chain [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Uncertainty - The resignation of Dr. Peter Marks from the FDA has raised concerns about regulatory clarity and innovation momentum in the biotech sector [8]. - The appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as head of Health and Human Services has sparked criticism due to his vaccine skepticism, raising fears about the influence on public health policy [9]. - Kennedy's push for a nationwide ban on direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising could significantly alter marketing strategies for healthcare products in the U.S. [10].

Group 1: AbbVie - AbbVie's share price has increased by a double-digit percentage in 2025, indicating strong demand for its products regardless of economic conditions [2] - The company has effectively managed the patent expiration of its top-selling drug, Humira, with successors Rinvoq and Skyrizi expected to generate more sales combined than Humira at its peak [3] - AbbVie has made significant acquisitions, adding growth drivers like Elahere, Botox, and Vraylar, and has over 90 programs in clinical development, including promising late-stage candidates [4] - AbbVie boasts a forward dividend yield of 3.25% and has a history of 53 consecutive years of dividend increases, qualifying it as a Dividend King [5] Group 2: Amgen - Amgen has faced challenges in organic revenue growth and a clinical setback with its weight management drug, MariTide, but its long-term prospects remain strong [6] - The company has strengthened its lineup through acquisitions, with growth drivers like Tepezza and Tezspire, and has over 30 candidates in phase 3 studies to ensure steady revenue and earnings growth [7][8] - Amgen has consistently raised its dividends, with a 201% increase over the past decade, and a forward yield of 3.1%, surpassing the S&P 500 average of 1.3% [8][9] Group 3: Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly's current dividend yield is less than 1%, but the company has significantly increased its dividend over the years, currently paying $1.50 per quarter, more than double the amount from five years ago [10][11] - The stock has appreciated by 480% over the past five years, with total returns including dividends reaching approximately 533%, compared to the S&P 500's 135% [12] - Eli Lilly is recognized for its growth potential with assets like Zepbound and Mounjaro, and despite a high valuation, it is considered a strong long-term investment due to its fast-growing business and robust dividend growth [13]