Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump regarding Coca-Cola's shift to real cane sugar has negatively impacted the stock prices of high fructose syrup producers, particularly Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Ingredion. Group 1: Company Impact - Shares of Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) fell nearly 3% in premarket trading and tumbled as much as 6% following the announcement [1][2] - Ingredion, another global ingredients provider, experienced a decline of more than 7% in its stock price as a result of the news [2] Group 2: Industry Reaction - The shift to real cane sugar in Coca-Cola's products is perceived as a positive move by President Trump, which may influence consumer preferences and market dynamics in the beverage industry [1][2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price has retreated from its high, with the latest price at 14.94 CNY/kg and the average weight at 128.64 kg. The complete cost for leading enterprises has decreased to around 12 CNY/kg, indicating a potential for profit maintenance and valuation recovery [6][17][18] - The report emphasizes a shift from cyclical thinking to focusing on financial performance, suggesting that investment should transition from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price" [18] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, highlighting DeKang Agriculture and Livestock as a representative, along with leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [18] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.94 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in average weight to 128.64 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets remains stable at around 530 CNY/head. The industry is experiencing a short-term rebound in prices after a slight decline [6][17] - The official number of breeding sows in May was 40.42 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%, indicating a stable production capacity [7][17] - The report suggests that the government's commitment to stabilizing pig prices is strong, and capacity regulation may continue to increase [7][17] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of parent stock chicks remains high, with the latest price at 47.93 CNY, a week-on-week increase of 5.25%. The price of broilers is 2.95 CNY/kg, down 12% week-on-week and 18% year-on-year [19] - The industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, leading to a reduction in production capacity among breeding farms [19] - The report highlights two main lines of focus: quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group, noting a cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to recover in 2025 [20][22] - The report indicates that the domestic capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - The report discusses the impact of potential tariffs on the pet industry, suggesting that the actual impact will be limited due to high profit margins and overseas factory layouts [23] - Companies with strong performance in their own brands, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, are highlighted as key focuses [23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight reduction in soybean planting area for 2025, with a forecast of 83.4 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [24] - The report emphasizes that agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, and a reduction in imports may help prices rise from low levels [24] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3982 points, up 1.54% from the previous week. The Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2729 points, up 2.55% [25][28] - The report notes that the aquaculture sector performed the best with a 5.13% increase [25]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Agriculture – Operations industry is expected to benefit from continuous innovation and rising demand for health-conscious products, particularly alternative proteins [1] - The industry includes companies involved in the production, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of agricultural commodities, as well as those engaged in dairy operations and food ingredient development [3] Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include acquisitions, joint ventures, expansion strategies, advances in food processing, enhanced grain-handling techniques, and strong demand from emerging markets [1][5] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects agricultural exports of $170.5 billion for fiscal 2025, driven by stronger grain and feed exports, particularly corn [4] Challenges - The industry faces headwinds such as volatile commodity prices, rising input costs, trade uncertainties, and escalating operational expenses, which are squeezing margins and disrupting productivity [2][6] - Companies are managing higher selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses due to performance-related compensation and technology investments [7] Market Performance - The Zacks Agriculture – Operations industry has outperformed the Zacks Consumer Staples sector with a collective gain of 9.3% over the past year, while underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 11.5% [11] - The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank of 229, placing it in the bottom 7% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating dull near-term prospects [9][10] Company Highlights - **Mission Produce**: Engaged in sourcing and distributing avocados, mangoes, and blueberries, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings up 18% in the past 30 days [17][18] - **Corteva**: Positioned for above-market growth through innovation and a strong product pipeline, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings suggesting a 16.7% increase [21][23] - **Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)**: Focused on nutrition and sustainable materials, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings declining by 0.5% [25][26] - **Alico**: Benefits from strong consumption of not-from-concentrate orange juice, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for current fiscal-year sales suggesting a 20.5% growth [29][30]

Core Insights - Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM) faced significant challenges in the first half of 2025, including thin soybean margins, policy confusion regarding renewable fuels, and the reintroduction of tariffs on key products [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced pressure on its profitability due to the aforementioned factors, particularly the impact of low soybean margins [1] Market Environment - The agribusiness sector is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by regulatory changes and market dynamics, which are affecting companies like ADM [1]

Core Insights - Dividend yield is a key metric for identifying dividend stocks, reflecting the amount of a company's dividend as a percentage of its stock price, which can fluctuate daily [1] - A strong balance sheet, indicated by a low debt-to-equity ratio, is essential for long-term dividend sustainability [2][3] Company Summaries Costco - Costco has a dividend yield of 0.53% with an annual dividend of $5.20 and a 22-year track record of dividend increases [5] - The company has delivered a total return of over 266% over the past five years, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21%, indicating strong financial health [6] - Investors should focus on the 12.7% average dividend growth over the last three years rather than the current yield [7] Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) - ADM boasts a dividend yield of 3.86% with an annual dividend of $2.04 and a 53-year history of dividend increases [8] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.34%, suggesting a stable dividend outlook [8] - However, ADM's growth is closely tied to commodity prices, which are cyclical, making it less defensive compared to consumer staples [9] Medtronic - Medtronic has a dividend yield of 3.26% with an annual dividend of $2.84 and a 49-year history of dividend increases [11] - The company is well-positioned in the aging population market and in AI and machine learning, with a debt-to-equity ratio of around 0.53% [12][13] - Despite its potential, Medtronic is not currently highlighted as a top buy by analysts, indicating some caution among investors [14]

Financial Performance - ADM's CY24 revenue reached $85.5 billion[14] - Total Segment Operating Profit for CY24 was $4.2 billion[14] - Adjusted EBITDA in CY24 amounted to $4.5 billion[14] - Adjusted EPS in CY24 was $4.74[14] Market Position and Operations - ADM serves >180 countries[13] - ADM operates ~325 food & feed processing locations[13] - ADM operates ~700 facilities[13] - ADM has ~380 crop procurement locations[17] Sustainability Goals - ADM aims for a 25% reduction in Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, using a 2021 baseline[64] - ADM targets 100% deforestation-free supply chains by 12/31/2025[66] - ADM aims to have 5,000,000 acres in regenerative agriculture programs globally by 12/31/2025, with 2,800,000 acres already in progress[66]

Core Point - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on imports of L-lysine from China, following a request from the Lysine Fair Trade Coalition and its member companies [1] Group 1 - The investigation was prompted by a petition submitted on May 28, 2025, by the Lysine Fair Trade Coalition and member companies including Archer Daniels Midland Company, CJ Bio America, Inc., and Evonik Corporation [1]

Group 1 - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research framework identifies companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation, emphasizing a structured and repeatable approach [1] - Valuation methods are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, prioritizing comparability, simplicity, and relevance [1] Group 2 - Research coverage focuses on underappreciated companies experiencing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] - Moretus Research aims to elevate the standard for independent investment research by providing professional-grade insights and actionable valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is facing a class action lawsuit alleging breaches of fiduciary duties by its board of directors, particularly concerning the performance and prospects of its Nutrition segment [1][3]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The class action complaint was filed on January 24, 2024, covering a Class Period from April 30, 2020, to January 22, 2024 [1]. - The lawsuit claims that ADM has spent billions over the past decade to expand its Nutrition business to mitigate commodity price volatility in its traditional agricultural commodities trading [2]. Group 2: Allegations Against ADM - Defendants are accused of making false and misleading statements regarding the Nutrition segment's performance and accounting practices [3]. - Positive statements were made about the Nutrition segment being a future profit driver, capitalizing on healthier eating trends and rising consumer demand for natural ingredients [3]. - There was an implication that the growth of the Nutrition segment would enhance diversification and earnings stability for ADM [3].

Core Viewpoint - Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) shares have declined by approximately 1.3% since the last earnings report, underperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about future performance leading up to the next earnings release [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Estimates - Fresh estimates for ADM have remained flat over the past month, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 6.86% [2]. - The most recent earnings report for ADM is essential to understand the key drivers affecting the stock's performance [1]. Group 2: VGM Scores - ADM currently holds a subpar Growth Score of D, while its Momentum Score is rated B, indicating better performance in that area [3]. - The stock has received an A grade on the value side, placing it in the top quintile for this investment strategy, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of C [3]. Group 3: Outlook - ADM has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting expectations of below-average returns in the upcoming months [4]. Group 4: Industry Comparison - ADM is part of the Zacks Agriculture - Operations industry, where competitor FMC has seen a gain of 20.8% over the past month [5]. - FMC reported revenues of $791.4 million for the last quarter, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 13.8%, with EPS dropping from $0.36 to $0.18 [5]. - For the current quarter, FMC is projected to post earnings of $0.60 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of -4.8%, with a slight increase of 0.8% in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the last 30 days [6].