作者 Michael Del Monte ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味 着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 超威半导体（AMD）2025 财年收官业绩表现强劲，营收实现乐观增长，同时利润率大幅改善 。公司规划雄心勃勃，计划在 2026 年下半年推出 MI400 系列 GPU，2027 财年发布 MI500 系列 GPU。随着 AI 开发者与企业开始扩充 AI 推理专用算力，AMD 有望迈入全新增 长轨道。凭借 2026 财年稳健的业绩展望，叠加 2025 年第四季度财报发布后的股价大幅回 调，分析师将 AMD 评级上调至 强力买入。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 A M D 业 务 运 营 情 况 2025 年第四季度，AMD 凭借 MI350 系列 GPU 与 霄龙（EPYC）CPU 实现亮眼销售业 绩，净营收同比大增 37.58% 。2025 财年霄龙实例部署量增长尤为突出，云服务提供商 （CSP）部署量增幅超 50%，企业端部署量翻番以上。 2025 年 Q4 的核心看点在于 AMD 下一代 Instinct 系列 AI 加速专用 GPU 矩阵： · MI455X 与 H ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 据外媒报道称，知情人士透露，英特尔和AMD已通知中国客户，其服务器用中央处理器（CPU）出现 供应短缺问题。英特尔还警告称，未来交货期最长可能达到六个月。 媒体援引一位知情人士的话表 示，供货紧张已导致英特尔服务器产品在中国市场的价格普遍上涨逾10%，不过具体价格因客户合同条 款可能会有些区别。还有两位知情人士表示，中国市场占英特尔总营收的20%以上，该公司第四代和第 五代至强（Xeon）CPU的供应尤为紧张，英特尔正实行定量交货制度。 记者向供应链求证，一位知情 人士表示，确实个别产品会供应紧张，需要提前提交市场需求预测。（澎湃） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for AMD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [47]. Core Insights - AMD achieved record performance in FY25Q4 with total revenue reaching $10.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11%. The gross margin significantly improved to 57%, up 290 basis points year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share were $1.53, reflecting a 40% increase year-over-year. Annual revenue also grew by 34% to $34.6 billion, with multiple key metrics hitting historical highs [2][7]. - The data center business generated $5.4 billion in revenue, marking a 39% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by the penetration of the fifth-generation EPYC processors and the explosive growth of the Instinct GPU business. Eight out of the top ten AI companies utilize Instinct for production workloads [3][8]. - The client and gaming segment combined revenue was $3.9 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase but a 3% quarter-over-quarter decline. The client business alone reached $3.1 billion, a historical high, with over 40% year-over-year growth in commercial laptop and desktop Ryzen CPU sales [9]. - The embedded business reported $950 million in revenue, a 3% year-over-year increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a record $17 billion in design orders accumulated in 2025 [10]. Revenue Breakdown - **Data Center Business**: Revenue of $5.4 billion, up 39% year-over-year and 24% quarter-over-quarter, with significant contributions from the fifth-generation EPYC processors and MI350 series GPUs [3][8]. - **Client and Gaming Business**: Combined revenue of $3.9 billion, with the client segment at $3.1 billion and gaming at $843 million, reflecting strong demand for Ryzen CPUs and Radeon GPUs [9]. - **Embedded Business**: Revenue of $950 million, with a notable increase in design orders and strong performance in various markets [10]. Business Progress - AMD is advancing its product development with the successful mass production of the next-generation data center product MI355, and the upcoming MI400 series is on track for release in H2 2026 [4]. - The software ecosystem is expanding, with the ROCm ecosystem supporting AMD GPUs and new models in healthcare [4]. Performance Guidance - AMD provided non-GAAP guidance for FY26Q1, projecting revenue of approximately $9.8 billion (with a fluctuation of $300 million), a gross margin of about 55% (up 130 basis points year-over-year), and operating expenses of around $3.05 billion [11].

Core Insights - UBS reported a total market value of $620 billion in Q4, reflecting a decrease of 5.65% from the previous quarter [3] - The firm made 1,347 new stock purchases and increased holdings in 4,181 stocks, while reducing holdings in 4,520 stocks and completely selling out of 1,188 stocks [3] - The top ten holdings accounted for 14.52% of the total market value [3] Top Holdings - NVIDIA (NVDA.US) is the largest holding with approximately 77.49 million shares valued at $14.45 billion, representing 2.34% of the portfolio, down 11.47% from the previous quarter [1][4] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) ranks second with about 28.04 million shares valued at $13.56 billion, making up 2.20% of the portfolio, a decrease of 7.64% [2][4] - Apple (AAPL.US) is third with around 44.55 million shares valued at $12.11 billion, accounting for 1.96% of the portfolio, down 10.57% [2][4] - Broadcom (AVGO.US) is fourth with approximately 23.77 million shares valued at $8.23 billion, representing 1.33% of the portfolio, an increase of 0.88% [2][4] - Amazon (AMZN.US) is fifth with about 34.61 million shares valued at $7.99 billion, making up 1.30% of the portfolio, down 4.57% [2][4] Notable Changes - UBS reduced its holdings in several tech stocks, including Micron Technology (MU.US) by 16.14%, TSMC (TSM.US) by 15.56%, Oracle (ORCL.US) by 1.91%, AMD (AMD.US) by 24.28%, and Western Digital (WDC.US) by 37.92% [5] - The firm slightly increased its position in Meta (META.US) by 0.85% among the "seven giants" [4] - New positions were established in Total (TTE.US) and increased holdings in Walmart (WMT.US), Alibaba (BABA.US), and Bitcoin holding company Strategy (MSTR.US) [5] Trading Activity - The top five purchases included Microsoft call options, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US), MP Materials call options, UBS Group AG, and iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF put options [5][6] - The top five sales included SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, Invesco QQQ Trust put options, iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond put options, Microsoft, and NVIDIA [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The supply of server CPUs is tightening, with Intel and AMD notifying Chinese customers of supply limitations, leading to price increases of over 10% for Intel's server chips in the Chinese market [2][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - Intel's delivery times for certain products have extended up to six months due to supply constraints [2]. - AMD has also confirmed supply limitations, with delivery times for some server CPUs extended to 8-10 weeks [2]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is driving competition for AI-specific chips, impacting the entire computing supply chain, particularly storage chips, which are seeing rising prices [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Intel and AMD dominate the global server CPU market, but Intel's market share has decreased from over 90% in 2019 to about 60% by 2025, while AMD's share has increased from approximately 5% to about 20% in the same period [3]. - Major Chinese cloud providers like Alibaba and Tencent are significant customers for both Intel and AMD [3]. Group 3: Underlying Factors of Supply Constraints - Intel faces yield challenges that limit its production capacity, while AMD relies on TSMC, which is prioritizing AI chip production, further constraining CPU capacity [3]. - The shortage of memory chips, a critical component for servers, is prompting customers to purchase CPUs in advance to secure relatively lower-priced memory resources [3]. - The rise of "intelligent AI" systems, which require higher computational power than traditional applications, is driving overall demand for CPUs [3].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over growth and weak labor market data have led to significant declines in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index turning negative for the year [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 600 points, a decline of approximately 1.2% [3]. - The S&P 500 index also dropped by 1.2%, marking a year-to-date downturn [3]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 1.6%, continuing its most severe decline since April of the previous year [4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Technology stocks and speculative bets on Wall Street experienced renewed declines, with the information technology sector of the S&P 500 falling by 1.7% [4]. - Software stocks saw significant drops, with Microsoft down 5% and Salesforce down 4.7% [4]. - The consumer discretionary sector faced severe losses, with DoorDash down 6.1% and both Lululemon and Ralph Lauren down over 4% [3]. Group 3: Individual Company Performance - Estée Lauder's stock plummeted by 19%, the largest decline among S&P 500 constituents, due to anticipated profit reductions of about $100 million related to tariffs [5]. - Cummins, an engine manufacturer, saw its stock drop by 11%, marking its largest single-day percentage decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [5]. - McKesson, a diversified healthcare services company, reported strong earnings, leading to a 17% increase in its stock price, the highest gain in the S&P 500 index [5]. Group 4: Commodity and Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin fell by 13%, contributing to a 19% drop in the stock price of cryptocurrency firm Coinbase, marking its 13th consecutive day of decline [4]. - Silver prices decreased by 9.1% [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for AMD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next six months [46]. Core Insights - AMD achieved record performance in FY25Q4 with total revenue reaching $10.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11%. The gross margin significantly improved to 57%, up 290 basis points year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share were $1.53, reflecting a 40% increase year-over-year [2][7]. - The data center business generated $5.4 billion in revenue, marking a 39% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by the penetration of the fifth-generation EPYC processors and the explosive growth of the Instinct GPU business [3][8]. - The client and gaming segment combined revenue was $3.9 billion, up 37% year-over-year but down 3% quarter-over-quarter, with the client business reaching a record high of $3.1 billion [3][9]. - The embedded business reported revenue of $950 million, a 3% year-over-year increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a total of $17 billion in design wins for 2025 [3][10]. - AMD provided guidance for FY26Q1, projecting revenue of approximately $9.8 billion (with a fluctuation of $300 million), a gross margin of about 55%, and operating expenses of around $3.05 billion [4][11]. Revenue Breakdown - **Data Center Business**: Revenue reached $5.4 billion, a 39% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase, with significant contributions from the fifth-generation EPYC processors and the Instinct GPU business [3][8]. - **Client and Gaming Business**: Combined revenue was $3.9 billion, with the client segment at $3.1 billion (up 34% year-over-year) and gaming revenue at $843 million (up 50% year-over-year) [3][9]. - **Embedded Business**: Revenue was $950 million, with a 3% year-over-year increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase, supported by strong demand in various markets [3][10]. Business Developments - AMD's new generation data center product MI355 has successfully entered mass production, contributing to the improvement in gross margin. The next-generation MI400 series and Helios platform are in development, with MI450 expected to launch in H2 2026 [4]. - The ROCm ecosystem continues to expand, supporting AMD GPUs and integrating into various applications, including healthcare [4].

人工智能(AI)基础设施领域的投资热潮，不仅引发了专用AI芯片的抢购潮，也让供应链其他环节的供需 矛盾持续加剧，其中存储芯片领域的紧缺最为突出，相关产品价格仍在持续飙升。 知情人士称，两家企业近几周刚向中国客户发出上述供货通知，这也意味着CPU的供应短缺问题进一步 升级，国内AI企业及诸多制造业厂商的生产经营压力或将进一步加大。 订单积压严重 两位知情人士表示，中国市场贡献了英特尔超20%的全球营收，该公司第四、五代至强(Xeon)服务器 CPU目前供应缺口尤为显著，英特尔已对相关产品实施限量供货。 他们补充道，英特尔上述型号CPU的未交付订单积压严重，交货周期已拉长至6个月。 一位知情人士及另一位第三方消息源均透露，AMD也已向合作客户告知供应受限的情况，后者表示， AMD部分服务器CPU产品的交货周期已延长至8至10周。 英特尔今年1月在财报电话会议中已提及CPU供应短缺问题，该公司在一份声明中表示，AI技术的快速 普及，推高了市场对传统计算芯片的需求。 声明还指出，英特尔预计2026年第一季度芯片库存将处于历史低位，但公司正采取积极举措缓解供应压 力，预计从第二季度开始，产品供应情况将逐步改善。 智通财 ...

另有知情人士表示，AMD也已向客户告知供应受限的情况，部分AMD产品的交货期已延长至8至10 周。 英特尔在1月份的财报电话会议中就曾指出CPU供应存在限制，该公司在给路透社的一份声明中表示， 人工智能的快速普及导致对"传统计算"的需求激增。 声明称："我们预计第一季度库存将处于最低水平，但我们正积极采取应对措施，预计从第二季度到 2026年，供应情况将逐步改善。" AMD则重申了其在财报电话会议中的表态，称已提升供应能力以应对强劲的市场需求。该公司在给路 透社的声明中表示："基于我们与台积电等合作伙伴建立的强有力供应商协议和供应链，我们对在全球 范围内满足客户需求充满信心。" 据路透社2月6日报道，知情人士透露，英特尔和AMD已通知中国客户，其服务器用中央处理器 （CPU）出现供应短缺问题。英特尔还警告称，未来交货期最长可能达到六个月。 一位知情人士表示，供货紧张已导致英特尔服务器产品在中国市场的价格普遍上涨逾10%，不过具体价 格因客户合同条款可能会有些区别。 报道称，对AI基础设施越来越庞大的投入不仅引发了对AI专用芯片的抢购热潮，也带动了供应链其他 环节的需求激增——其中内存芯片的短缺最为突出，其价格 ...

近日，上海浦发银行披露两则采购项目结果公示，分别为鲲鹏芯片服务器、海光四号芯片服务器采购项目，其中 恒驰信息以1.58亿元中标、神州新桥以2.15亿元中标。 根据浦发银行2月4日发布的《2025年金融云信创基础设施系统常规扩容项目等两项目第二批鲲鹏芯片服务器采购 项目》结果公示，上海恒驰信息系统有限公司以1.58亿元中标。 同一天，浦发银行《2025年金融云信创基础设施常规扩容等二项目之海光四号芯片服务器采购项目》结果公示， 北京神州新桥科技有限公司以2.15亿元中标。 官网显示，恒驰信息是华为核心代理商、华为优选CSP服务伙伴、华为云核心解决方案提供商和CTSP能力伙伴， 该公司聚焦ICT集成、云业务、信息安全三大核心业务。 海光四号（海光7400系列）发布于2023年10月，首次采用自研CPU微架构，是海光信息推出的第四代国产高端x86 服务器处理器，采用自主研发的新一代CPU微架构，支持64核128线程（如7490型号）。它兼容X86指令集，支持 国密算法，主打高性能计算与数据中心市场，广泛应用于服务器、工作站等。 神州新桥成立于2001年，是东华软件的全资子公司，为国内金融行业IT技术服务提供商。 目 ...