SAI总裁兼CEO约翰.纽菲尔(John Neuffer)表示："全球半导体行业在2025年创下历史最高销售额，接近 8000亿美元。2026年全球销售额预计将达到约1万亿美元。半导体是几乎所有现代技术的基石，AI、物 联网、6G、自动驾驶等新兴技术将持续推动芯片的强劲需求。" AI热潮已席卷芯片产业的几乎每个角落。纽菲尔透露，他在近期访问硅谷时，多家中小型企业高管均 对2026年市场前景表示乐观。 芯片需求旺盛 凤凰网科技讯北京时间2月6日，据路透社报道，美国半导体行业协会(SIA)周五表示，今年全球半导体 销售额预计将达到1万亿美元。 SIA称，2025年全球半导体销售额为7917亿美元，同比增长25.6%。这一迅猛增长预计将持续到今年， 因为全球各大科技公司正斥资数千亿美元建设AI数据中心。 数据显示，增长最快、同时也是规模最大的芯片类别，是英伟达、AMD和英特尔生产的先进计算芯 片。此类产品的销售额在2025年增长了39.9%，总计达到3019亿美元。第二大类别是存储芯片，在AI热 潮导致供应短缺的背景下，其价格大幅上涨。存储芯片销售额增长了34.8%，达到2231亿美元。 纽菲尔对路透社表示："我听 ...

Group 1 - The company offers a Growth Investor Pro service that teaches investing, trading, and risk management [1] - A swing trading alerts system has been successfully operated for several years [1] - Weekly live webinars are provided, along with access to senior staff and a 24x7 chat environment [1] Group 2 - A one-month trial of the service is available for $99, allowing potential subscribers to evaluate before committing to an annual subscription [2] - The service has received numerous 5-star reviews during both bear and bull markets [2]

Group 1 - The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares ETF (SOXS) is designed to provide investors with -3x the daily performance of the NYSE Semiconductor Index [1] - Investors are becoming more critical of the semiconductor sector, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Michael Del Monte is a buy-side equity analyst with expertise in technology, energy, industrials, and materials sectors [1] - Del Monte has over a decade of experience in professional services across various industries, including oil and gas, midstream, and consumer discretionary [1]

1. 2月6日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货均转涨。截至发稿，纳指期货现涨0.51%，标普500指数期货涨0.52%，道指期货涨0.60%，此 前纳指期货一度跌超1.6%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油涨1.39%，报71.99美元/桶。布伦特原油涨1.34%，报75.66美元/桶。 | ■ WTI原油 | 2026年3月 | 63.02 | 64.58 | 62.32 | -0.27 | -0.43% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 謡 伦敦布伦特原油 | 2026年4月 | 67.37 | 68.82 | 66.87 | -0.18 | -0.27% | 市场消息 今夜无非农，下周"双炸弹"。受此前美国政府停摆影响，美国1月非农报告推迟至2月11日(下周三)21:30公布，1月CPI报告推迟至2月13日 (下周五)21:30公布。双重重磅数据或将引发新一轮市场动荡。 美股常胜策略突然失效!动量交易遭遇历史性回撤：资金从科技撤离，价值股成新宠。多年来，在股市中追涨动量一直是常胜策略，然而 这一策略在过去一周却突然失效。此次动量策略的崩塌，是美 ...

作者 Michael Del Monte ，内容为转载编译，仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味 着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 超威半导体（AMD）2025 财年收官业绩表现强劲，营收实现乐观增长，同时利润率大幅改善 。公司规划雄心勃勃，计划在 2026 年下半年推出 MI400 系列 GPU，2027 财年发布 MI500 系列 GPU。随着 AI 开发者与企业开始扩充 AI 推理专用算力，AMD 有望迈入全新增 长轨道。凭借 2026 财年稳健的业绩展望，叠加 2025 年第四季度财报发布后的股价大幅回 调，分析师将 AMD 评级上调至 强力买入。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 A M D 业 务 运 营 情 况 2025 年第四季度，AMD 凭借 MI350 系列 GPU 与 霄龙（EPYC）CPU 实现亮眼销售业 绩，净营收同比大增 37.58% 。2025 财年霄龙实例部署量增长尤为突出，云服务提供商 （CSP）部署量增幅超 50%，企业端部署量翻番以上。 2025 年 Q4 的核心看点在于 AMD 下一代 Instinct 系列 AI 加速专用 GPU 矩阵： · MI455X 与 H ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 据外媒报道称，知情人士透露，英特尔和AMD已通知中国客户，其服务器用中央处理器（CPU）出现 供应短缺问题。英特尔还警告称，未来交货期最长可能达到六个月。 媒体援引一位知情人士的话表 示，供货紧张已导致英特尔服务器产品在中国市场的价格普遍上涨逾10%，不过具体价格因客户合同条 款可能会有些区别。还有两位知情人士表示，中国市场占英特尔总营收的20%以上，该公司第四代和第 五代至强（Xeon）CPU的供应尤为紧张，英特尔正实行定量交货制度。 记者向供应链求证，一位知情 人士表示，确实个别产品会供应紧张，需要提前提交市场需求预测。（澎湃） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for AMD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [47]. Core Insights - AMD achieved record performance in FY25Q4 with total revenue reaching $10.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11%. The gross margin significantly improved to 57%, up 290 basis points year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share were $1.53, reflecting a 40% increase year-over-year. Annual revenue also grew by 34% to $34.6 billion, with multiple key metrics hitting historical highs [2][7]. - The data center business generated $5.4 billion in revenue, marking a 39% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by the penetration of the fifth-generation EPYC processors and the explosive growth of the Instinct GPU business. Eight out of the top ten AI companies utilize Instinct for production workloads [3][8]. - The client and gaming segment combined revenue was $3.9 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase but a 3% quarter-over-quarter decline. The client business alone reached $3.1 billion, a historical high, with over 40% year-over-year growth in commercial laptop and desktop Ryzen CPU sales [9]. - The embedded business reported $950 million in revenue, a 3% year-over-year increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a record $17 billion in design orders accumulated in 2025 [10]. Revenue Breakdown - **Data Center Business**: Revenue of $5.4 billion, up 39% year-over-year and 24% quarter-over-quarter, with significant contributions from the fifth-generation EPYC processors and MI350 series GPUs [3][8]. - **Client and Gaming Business**: Combined revenue of $3.9 billion, with the client segment at $3.1 billion and gaming at $843 million, reflecting strong demand for Ryzen CPUs and Radeon GPUs [9]. - **Embedded Business**: Revenue of $950 million, with a notable increase in design orders and strong performance in various markets [10]. Business Progress - AMD is advancing its product development with the successful mass production of the next-generation data center product MI355, and the upcoming MI400 series is on track for release in H2 2026 [4]. - The software ecosystem is expanding, with the ROCm ecosystem supporting AMD GPUs and new models in healthcare [4]. Performance Guidance - AMD provided non-GAAP guidance for FY26Q1, projecting revenue of approximately $9.8 billion (with a fluctuation of $300 million), a gross margin of about 55% (up 130 basis points year-over-year), and operating expenses of around $3.05 billion [11].

Core Insights - UBS reported a total market value of $620 billion in Q4, reflecting a decrease of 5.65% from the previous quarter [3] - The firm made 1,347 new stock purchases and increased holdings in 4,181 stocks, while reducing holdings in 4,520 stocks and completely selling out of 1,188 stocks [3] - The top ten holdings accounted for 14.52% of the total market value [3] Top Holdings - NVIDIA (NVDA.US) is the largest holding with approximately 77.49 million shares valued at $14.45 billion, representing 2.34% of the portfolio, down 11.47% from the previous quarter [1][4] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) ranks second with about 28.04 million shares valued at $13.56 billion, making up 2.20% of the portfolio, a decrease of 7.64% [2][4] - Apple (AAPL.US) is third with around 44.55 million shares valued at $12.11 billion, accounting for 1.96% of the portfolio, down 10.57% [2][4] - Broadcom (AVGO.US) is fourth with approximately 23.77 million shares valued at $8.23 billion, representing 1.33% of the portfolio, an increase of 0.88% [2][4] - Amazon (AMZN.US) is fifth with about 34.61 million shares valued at $7.99 billion, making up 1.30% of the portfolio, down 4.57% [2][4] Notable Changes - UBS reduced its holdings in several tech stocks, including Micron Technology (MU.US) by 16.14%, TSMC (TSM.US) by 15.56%, Oracle (ORCL.US) by 1.91%, AMD (AMD.US) by 24.28%, and Western Digital (WDC.US) by 37.92% [5] - The firm slightly increased its position in Meta (META.US) by 0.85% among the "seven giants" [4] - New positions were established in Total (TTE.US) and increased holdings in Walmart (WMT.US), Alibaba (BABA.US), and Bitcoin holding company Strategy (MSTR.US) [5] Trading Activity - The top five purchases included Microsoft call options, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US), MP Materials call options, UBS Group AG, and iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF put options [5][6] - The top five sales included SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, Invesco QQQ Trust put options, iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond put options, Microsoft, and NVIDIA [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The supply of server CPUs is tightening, with Intel and AMD notifying Chinese customers of supply limitations, leading to price increases of over 10% for Intel's server chips in the Chinese market [2][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - Intel's delivery times for certain products have extended up to six months due to supply constraints [2]. - AMD has also confirmed supply limitations, with delivery times for some server CPUs extended to 8-10 weeks [2]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is driving competition for AI-specific chips, impacting the entire computing supply chain, particularly storage chips, which are seeing rising prices [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Intel and AMD dominate the global server CPU market, but Intel's market share has decreased from over 90% in 2019 to about 60% by 2025, while AMD's share has increased from approximately 5% to about 20% in the same period [3]. - Major Chinese cloud providers like Alibaba and Tencent are significant customers for both Intel and AMD [3]. Group 3: Underlying Factors of Supply Constraints - Intel faces yield challenges that limit its production capacity, while AMD relies on TSMC, which is prioritizing AI chip production, further constraining CPU capacity [3]. - The shortage of memory chips, a critical component for servers, is prompting customers to purchase CPUs in advance to secure relatively lower-priced memory resources [3]. - The rise of "intelligent AI" systems, which require higher computational power than traditional applications, is driving overall demand for CPUs [3].

来源：国际投行研究报告 雅诗兰黛下跌19% 增长恐慌拖累美股再次下跌！ 疲软的劳动力市场数据和对AI的忧虑进一步拉低美国股市，标普500指数年内转跌。软件股也再次大幅 下跌；比特币下跌13%，拖累Strategy股价下跌19%。 标普500指数信息技术板块下跌1.7%。微软(Microsoft)下跌5%，Salesforce回落4.7%。这轮跌势继续冲击 半导体公司，包括Advanced Micro Devices，该公司收盘下跌3.9%；以及英伟达(Nvidia)，该公司收盘下 跌1.4%。 Alphabet股价下跌0.5%，此前这家谷歌(Google)的母公司表示，今年可能进行最高可达1,850亿美元的人 工智能相关资本投资。高通(Qualcomm)发布的疲软预测拖累了这家芯片制造商的股价，其股价下跌了 8.5%。 雅诗兰黛(Estée Lauder)股价下跌19%，在标普500指数成份股中跌幅最大，此前这家美妆集团表示，预 计今年与关税相关的不利因素将使其利润减少约1亿美元。发动机制造商康明斯(Cummins)股价下跌 11%，创下自2020年3月新冠疫情爆发之初以来的最大单日百分比跌幅。 投资者涌入公 ...