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“AI泡沫即使存在,也将继续膨胀”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 05:35
·当前AI热潮虽然具备历史性泡沫的所有特征,但这并不仅仅是简单的"科技股炒作过热"。AI行业的规 模更有可能在继续发展壮大的同时,实现结构性的分化式调整。 2025年第四季度以来,伴随着主要科技股的一系列回调,"AI泡沫论"甚嚣尘上,引起了业界广泛的讨 论。OpenAI首席执行官山姆·阿尔特曼承认,投资者作为一个整体对AI"过度兴奋"。微软联合创始人比 尔·盖茨也将当前的AI热潮类比为二十多年前的互联网泡沫。 几乎所有人都在谈论泡沫的存在,却没有人愿意停止投资。资金继续涌入,估值继续攀升,狂热继续蔓 延。"美股七雄"——苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta、英伟达和特斯拉的合计市值一度占据标普500 指数总市值的三分之一以上。英伟达市值一度达到史无前例的5万亿美元。OpenAI的估值在短短数年间 从数十亿美元跃升至五千亿美元,尽管该公司从未实现盈利,且预计在未来数年内仍将持续亏损。 OpenAI董事长布雷特·泰勒概括了这种矛盾:"AI将改变经济,我相信它会像互联网一样在未来创造巨大 的经济价值……但我们同时也在一个泡沫之中,很多人将损失大量金钱。" 一方面,由于ChatGPT等生成式AI工具的普及,我们每个人都 ...
全线狂飙!美联储,突传重磅!
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-19 04:38
Group 1 - The US stock market saw a collective rise on December 18, with major technology stocks performing well, particularly the Trump Media Technology Group, which surged by 41.93% after announcing a merger agreement with TAE Technology [1][2] - Tesla's stock increased by over 3%, adding approximately $53.6 billion (around 377.4 billion RMB) to its market capitalization [2] - The merger between Trump Media Technology Group and TAE Technology will be executed through an all-stock transaction, with both companies' shareholders expected to own about 50% of the combined entity post-merger [2] Group 2 - The latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the market expectation of 3.1% [4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6%, marking the lowest level since early 2021 and also below the anticipated 3% [4] - Following the CPI report, there was a slight increase in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January, with traders estimating a 28.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut, up from 26.6% prior to the inflation data release [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions, Kay Haigh, stated that the low inflation data would not impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making, as they are more focused on the December CPI data set to be released in mid-January [5]
安期货晨会纪要-20251219





Xin Yong An Guo Ji Zheng Quan· 2025-12-19 04:01
Core Insights - US core inflation unexpectedly eased to a four-year low, raising questions among economists about the reliability of the data due to a prior government shutdown [8][14] - ByteDance has signed an agreement to establish a joint venture in the US with majority ownership by American investors [8][14] Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16% at 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 1.29% and the ChiNext Index dropped 2.17% [1] - The Hong Kong market also saw fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.12% at 25498.13 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.73% [1][5] Economic Indicators - The US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November, while the overall CPI increased by 2.7% [14] - The report indicated that core CPI only increased by 0.2% over the last two months, with declines in hotel, leisure, and clothing prices limiting the overall increase [14] Corporate Developments - TikTok announced the establishment of a joint venture with US investors, which will operate independently and manage US data protection and algorithm security [8][14] - China has reportedly ordered 7 million tons of US soybeans, achieving over half of the procurement target set during the Trump administration [8][14]
美国众议院通过《Speed Act》 2026年?AI基建有望迈入加速阶段
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 03:14
(原标题:美国众议院通过《Speed Act》 2026年?AI基建有望迈入加速阶段) 智通财经APP获悉,一项旨在简化人工智能基础设施建设许可流程与审批规则的重要立法已在美国众议 院获得通过。众议院以221票赞成,196票反对通过了《Speed Act》,这是一项美国两党代表共同提出 的关键法案,旨在让美国国内与AI基础设施建设以及大型数据中心所需电力系统与能源相关的许可审 批更容易获得。该法案现将提交参议院;参议院正在就更大范围的许可改革问题开展处理工作。 包括美光、OpenAI以及微软等在内的美国科技公司已公开表示支持《Speed Act》。 整体而言,《Speed Act》对包括谷歌和微软在内的美国四大云计算超级厂商的价值在"降低拿电与能源 配套工程的联邦政府许可尾部风险、提升交付确定性",而不是"让数据中心建设一夜之间的建设进程实 质加速"。 对谷歌、甲骨文、微软、亚马逊这些在美国大规模新建或者扩建大型AI数据中心的"超大规模云计算厂 商们"而言,《SPEED Act》如果在参议院也通过并最终生效,最现实的意义是:把项目最关键的外部 约束——"拿到电、并上网、把能源基础设施建出来"的审批与诉讼不确定 ...
周受资内部信曝TikTok美国方案;腾讯回应“元宝AI”质疑
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-19 03:01
周受资:字节、TikTok与三家投资者将设合资公司 TikTok CEO周受资在一封内部信中透露了TikTok美国业务最新进展。据称,字节跳动、TikTok与三家投 资者签署了协议,将成立新的TikTok美国合资公司,新公司名为TikTok美国数据安全合资有限责任公司 ( TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC),将负责美国的数据保护、算法安全、内容审核和软件保障。而由 字节跳动全资控股的、TikTok在美的其他实体,将继续负责电商、广告、市场运营等商业活动和TikTok 产品的全球互联互通。协议相关事宜将在明年1月22日前完成。 腾讯回应"元宝AI"人工操作质疑 21世纪经济报道新质生产力研究院综合报道 早上好,新的一天又开始了。在过去的24小时内,科技行业发生了哪些有意思的事情?来跟21tech一起 看看吧。 【巨头风向标】 12月18日,腾讯针对旗下AI产品元宝被质疑"回复评论由人工操作"一事作出回应,称一切带有"内容由 AI生成"字样的评论均由元宝AI生成,背后并无人工运营,也没有团队轮班。倘若评论文字后没有该标 识,则为真人回答。此次争议源于元宝在腾讯旗下多平台评论区的互动表现。 ...
美国众议院通过《Speed Act》 2026年 AI基建有望迈入加速阶段
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 02:58
但是,《Speed Act》不会自动解决大型科技巨头们往往会在一线真正卡住的另外几类重大瓶颈:地方 选址/分区与社区阻力、并网排队与变压器/开关站等关键设备交付周期、以及公用事业的成本分摊与电 价政治。甲骨文等参与的部分超大项目已经在地方层面遭遇争议与融资、监管审查等不确定性,这些都 不由NEPA单点决定。 此外,白宫和美国能源部的最新声明显示,包括微软、谷歌、英伟达等在内24家顶尖的人工智能企业已 与美国政府签署协议,加入"创世纪(300083)计划"。该计划由白宫所发起,旨在推动包括人工智能在 内的新兴前沿技术在科学探索与能源项目中的应用。 美国总统特朗普上月通过行政命令宣布了该计划,旨在加强政府各部门科研工作的协调,更高效地整合 人工智能工具以实现更多科学突破。 一项旨在简化人工智能基础设施建设许可流程与审批规则的重要立法已在美国众议院获得通过。众议院 以221票赞成,196票反对通过了《Speed Act》,这是一项美国两党代表共同提出的关键法案,旨在让 美国国内与AI基础设施建设以及大型数据中心所需电力系统与能源相关的许可审批更容易获得。该法 案现将提交参议院;参议院正在就更大范围的许可改革问题开展 ...
Kindle新增“人工智能说书”功能,读者真的需要吗?
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-12-19 02:35
近日,亚马逊宣布在Kindle平台上推出"Ask My Book"("问问这本书")等人工智能辅助讲解图书内容 的新功能。这意味着未来该平台上的所有书籍都将自动接入这一功能。此举随即在互联网上引发了一场 关于作者同意权和出版控制权的争论。读者真的需要这样的功能吗? 编译 | 申璐 据英国《独立报》等媒体报道,近日,亚马逊宣布在Kindle平台上推出"Ask My Book"新功能,为读者 提供正在阅读的书籍或段落的背景信息和其他相关信息。这一功能调整引发了来自读者、出版商及图书 作者多方的不满。 根据人工智能聊天机器人Grok对X平台(前身为Twitter)上关于该功能的帖子进行的情感分析,负面情 绪占主导地位(72%)。目前该功能仅在Kindle iOS 应用上可用,不过该公司计划将其逐步推广到安卓 操作系统等平台上。 亚马逊方面特意强调,提问不会影响阅读体验。"答案基于你目前的阅读进度,不包含剧透。"屏幕顶部 显示着这样一条信息。亚马逊发言人在接受采访时还表示,该功能"始终开启,作者或出版商无法选择 退出"。 尽管如此,仍然有不少读者在社交媒体上表达各自的担忧。Lit hub(文学中心)发表评论文章,认为 ...
AI新子弹要来了,报道称OpenAI正探讨“数百亿甚至1000亿美元融资”
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-19 02:17
华尔街见闻此前提及,作为交易的关键一环,OpenAI将同意使用亚马逊自研的Trainium芯片,此前, OpenAI已宣布在未来七年内斥资380亿美元租用亚马逊Web Services(AWS)的服务器,而拟议中的这 笔投资将直接为该租赁承诺提供资金支持。如果交易落地,亚马逊将加入包括英伟达在内的科技巨头行 列,成为OpenAI最新一轮的重量级投资者。 这一系列融资动态凸显了生成式AI领域日益激烈的昂贵军备竞赛。对于投资者而言,OpenAI若成功引 入亚马逊等战略盟友并实现芯片供应链多元化,不仅意味着其现金储备的大幅扩充,也预示着硅谷巨头 间关于算力、独家协议与市场份额的竞争关系正变得更加错综复杂。 本文不构成个人投资建议,不代表平台观点,市场有风险,投资需谨慎,请独立判断和决策。 本文来自微信公众号"华尔街见闻",作者:叶慧雯,36氪经授权发布。 OpenAI正在酝酿新一轮规模空前的资本运作,旨在通过高达数百亿乃至一千亿美元的融资,进一步巩 固其在人工智能领域的统治地位,并为其高昂的模型训练成本补充弹药。 据The Information援引三位知情人士透露,OpenAI在近期与投资者的接触中,讨论了约75 ...
吞电巨兽AI正在全面重构美国能源格局|独家
24潮· 2025-12-19 02:04
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that electricity has become a critical constraint on the development of artificial intelligence (AI), with the demand for power surging due to the exponential growth of AI models and data centers [2][14]. Group 1: AI Power Consumption - ChatGPT consumes approximately 2.9 watt-hours per response, which is nearly ten times the energy used by a traditional Google search, leading to a daily consumption of over 500,000 kilowatt-hours [3][9]. - The energy required for training AI models has significantly increased, with GPT-3 consuming 1,287 megawatt-hours for a single training session, enough to power 3,000 Tesla vehicles for 200,000 miles [9][10]. - The projected AI computing power in the U.S. is expected to require about 1,269 terawatt-hours by 2030, accounting for 22% of the total electricity consumption [10][12]. Group 2: Electricity Supply Challenges - The U.S. electricity grid is aging, with 70% of transformers exceeding their 25-year design life, leading to a low load reserve margin of only 20% [10][11]. - The average outage duration for U.S. users reached 662.6 minutes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 80.74%, with states like Virginia and Texas experiencing even longer outages [11]. - The demand for electricity from AI is characterized by "pulse-like" spikes, which poses significant challenges to grid stability [10][11]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Solutions - Solar power combined with energy storage is viewed as the most viable solution to meet the growing electricity demands of AI, given its economic advantages and shorter construction timelines compared to other energy sources [15][17]. - The cost of solar power generation is the lowest among various energy sources, with prices ranging from $0.038 to $0.078 per kWh, making it an attractive option for data centers [17][18]. - Major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have set ambitious goals for achieving 100% renewable energy for their data centers by 2030, indicating a strong commitment to sustainable energy solutions [20][21].
港股开盘:恒指涨0.53%,恒生科指涨0.81%,科网股普涨,新能源车概念股活跃
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-19 01:33
恒生指数开盘涨0.53%,报25634.22点,恒生科技指数涨0.81%,报5461.92点,国企指数涨0.58%,报 8893.1点,红筹指数涨0.2%,报4057.56点。 【隔夜外盘】 英皇资本(00717.HK):公布截至2025年9月30日止年度业绩,总收入约7.3亿港元,同比增长37.3%;净 溢利约1.47亿港元,同比增长121.4%。 新特能源(01799.HK):附属拟出售新疆风至新能源发电合伙企业79.92%财产份额配合类REITs发行,对 价约13.37亿元。 湾区发展(00737.HK):附属广深珠公司与保利长大订立深圳段施工合同,签约合同价为人民币14.48亿 元。 大型科技股中,阿里巴巴-W涨0.62%,腾讯控股涨0.83%,京东集团-SW涨0.71%,小米集团-W涨 0.6%,网易-S涨1.42%,美团-W涨0.79%,快手-W涨1.3%,哔哩哔哩-W涨1.2%。新能源车概念股活 跃,小鹏汽车、零跑汽车走强。 美东时间周四,在利好通胀数据的推动下,三大指数集体走高,结束了近期的下跌走势。截至收盘,道 琼斯指数涨0.14%,报47,951.85点;标普500指数涨0.78%,报6, ...