While it's not clear how Trump may enact his plan, the stocks were getting hit badly in premarket trading Monday. ...

来源：滚动播报 BTIG：将美国运通目标价从307美元上调至328美元。 ...

US stock futures sank on Monday, pulling back from records amid concerns over Federal Reserve independence after US prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into its Chair Jerome Powell. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) sank 0.7%, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) fell 0.6%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) led the way lower, dropping roughly 0.9% on the heels of all-time closing highs for Wall Street stocks. Rattled markets are turning their backs on US assets after Powell said th ...

Core Viewpoint - A proposed 10% cap on APRs could significantly impact credit card companies' earnings, but analysts believe it is unlikely to be implemented [1] Group 1 - The potential cap on APRs is seen as a major concern for credit card companies [1] - Jefferies analyst expresses skepticism about the likelihood of the proposal being enacted [1]

Group 1: Tariffs and Pharmaceutical Sector - President Trump has threatened pharmaceutical tariffs of up to 250% and 500% on India over Russian oil purchases, indicating a shift in the administration's approach to tariffs as a tool for industry reshaping rather than negotiation [2] - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has secured an exemption from certain tariffs by committing to lower drug prices, joining 14 other major pharmaceutical companies in the "TrumpRx" program, which aims to align US drug prices with European counterparts [3] - Moody's Analytics reported a "collapse in pharmaceutical imports" as companies stockpiled goods in anticipation of tariffs, demonstrating the market's tendency to react preemptively to presidential announcements [3] Group 2: Energy Sector and Venezuela - Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump declared a national emergency and announced new sanctions, leading to a surge in US energy stocks, with Chevron (CVX) rising 5% and Exxon Mobil (XOM) increasing by 2.2% [4] - However, by January 10, 2026, analysts expressed skepticism about the viability of Venezuelan oil investments, citing a lack of legal pathways and the need for significant infrastructure rebuilding [5] - Venezuelan government bonds saw a rally, with a bond maturing in 2027 increasing from 31.5p to over 40p on the dollar, indicating market interest despite the geopolitical instability [5] Group 3: Credit Card Industry - President Trump proposed a one-year, 10% cap on credit card interest rates, aiming to save Americans "tens of billions of dollars," which has raised concerns among banking executives [6][7] - The banking industry, including the Bank Policy Institute and the American Bankers Association, warned that such a cap could lead consumers to less regulated alternatives and reduce credit availability [8] - Major credit card companies like American Express (AXP) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) experienced stock declines of -1.92% and -0.18% respectively, reflecting market apprehension about the proposed cap [8] Group 4: Defense Sector - President Trump's executive order threatening to restrict stock buybacks and dividends for defense contractors initially caused a drop in defense stocks, but a subsequent announcement of a $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal year 2027 led to a rally in the sector [9][10] - Northrop Grumman (NOC) saw a premarket increase of 6.8%, while Lockheed Martin (LMT) rose 6.7%, indicating strong market response to the budget announcement [10] - The iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF gained approximately 55% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 17% increase, highlighting robust demand in the defense sector [10] Group 5: Market Reactions and Trends - The US stock market exhibited polarized performance on January 8, 2026, with the DOW gaining 60.94 points (+0.12%) while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite fell [13] - By January 9, 2026, the indices largely recovered, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.6% and the DOW adding 0.5%, indicating a rotation out of high-growth technology into heavy industry [14] - Analysts forecast a 10% increase for the S&P 500 in the remainder of 2026, although they acknowledge that presidential tariffs pose a significant source of uncertainty for market performance [15]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has proposed a cap on credit card interest rates at 10% effective January 20, 2026, to address consumer affordability concerns, which would be the lowest rate seen since at least 1994 [1][3]. Industry Impact - Credit card companies may face negative stock reactions if the proposed cap reduces their net interest income, which was a record $130 billion in 2022 [2][4]. - The average credit card interest rate in the U.S. is currently 19.65%, with store credit cards averaging 30.14% [3]. - A cap on interest rates could lead to reduced access to credit, particularly for younger and less affluent individuals, as companies may limit credit supply to manage risk [6][7]. Company Performance - American Express reported $15.5 billion in net interest income for 2024, an 18% increase from 2023, driven by higher interest rates and revolving loan balances [10]. - Capital One's net interest income rose to $31.2 billion in 2024, a $2 billion increase from the previous year, attributed to higher average loan balances [11]. - Investors should monitor the potential impact on net interest income for major card issuers like American Express, JPMorgan Chase, and Capital One if the cap is implemented [9]. Regulatory and Market Reactions - Industry groups, including the Bank Policy Institute and the American Bankers Association, have opposed the cap, arguing it could push consumers toward less regulated and more costly alternatives [11]. - The proposed cap follows previous unsuccessful attempts by Senators Hawley and Sanders to implement similar measures [3].

Core Insights - Carrying credit-card debt has become increasingly expensive over the past several years, indicating a rising cost of borrowing for consumers [1] - There are concerns that lower interest rates could lead to reduced access to credit, potentially impacting consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] Group 1 - The cost of carrying credit-card debt has escalated, reflecting broader trends in interest rates and lending practices [1] - Lower interest rates may not necessarily benefit consumers, as they could result in tighter credit access [1]

Core Viewpoint - Previous proposals to cap interest rates have not gained significant support in Congress [1] Group 1 - Interest rate cap proposals have faced challenges in gaining traction within legislative discussions [1]

Core Viewpoint - American Express Company will participate in the UBS Financial Services Conference on February 10, 2026, discussing its business strategy and financial performance [1] Group 1 - The conference will begin at 1:00 p.m. (ET) [1] - A live audio webcast of the discussion will be available to the public through the American Express Investor Relations website [1] - An audio replay of the discussion will be accessible after the event [1]

Core Viewpoint - The transition of leadership at Berkshire Hathaway from Warren Buffett to Greg Abel marks a new era for the company, with Abel committed to maintaining Buffett's investment philosophy of concentrating capital in high-quality ideas [1][2]. Investment Portfolio Overview - Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio totals $317 billion, with a significant concentration in eight key stocks that represent 74% ($234.5 billion) of the portfolio [3]. Key Holdings - **Apple**: Represents 20.1% of invested assets; despite being the largest holding, it has seen a 74% reduction in shares over the last two years, indicating a shift in investment strategy [4][6]. - **American Express**: Accounts for 18.2% of invested assets; known for its dual role as a payment facilitator and lender, it has a strong position among affluent customers, making it resilient during economic downturns [7][9]. - **Bank of America**: Comprises 10.2% of invested assets; the position has been reduced by 45% over five quarters, reflecting concerns over interest rate sensitivity amid a rate-easing cycle [11][13]. - **Coca-Cola**: Holds 8.6% of invested assets; its long-standing presence in the portfolio since 1988 is supported by a strong dividend yield and global market presence [14][15]. - **Chevron**: Represents 6.3% of invested assets; its integrated business model allows for stable cash flow, and it has a robust capital-return program with projected buybacks of $10 billion to $20 billion annually through 2030 [16][18]. - **Moody's**: Accounts for 4.1% of invested assets; it has performed well due to its debt rating services and analytics, benefiting from low interest rates in recent years [20][21]. - **Occidental Petroleum**: Comprises 3.4% of invested assets; it has a unique focus on upstream operations and is working to reduce its net debt position [23][25]. - **Chubb**: Represents 3.1% of invested assets; it focuses on high-end property and casualty insurance, allowing for premium pricing power and attractive margins [27][29].