Core Viewpoint - The private equity (PE) industry is facing significant challenges, as evidenced by the low Distribution to Paid-In (DPI) ratios of major funds, raising questions about the sustainability of the industry's business model [1][2][9]. Group 1: DPI Performance - Blackstone's 2015 vintage private equity fund has a DPI of only 0.85, which is concerning for the industry as a whole [1][2]. - Other major funds also show low DPI figures, such as KKR's 2016 vintage at 0.90 and Hellman & Friedman’s 2018 vintage at 0.13, indicating a broader trend of underperformance [9]. - Blackstone's flagship fund, BCP VII, has a DPI that is the worst in its history, with a "gross DPI" of only 1.06 after ten years, compared to better performances from older funds [9][10]. Group 2: Fundraising and Investment Challenges - The current environment shows that older funds are struggling to exit investments, while new funds are having difficulty deploying capital, leading to a stagnation in the industry [8][11]. - Blackstone's latest flagship fund, BCP IX, has only called 2.9 million USD, primarily for management fees, indicating a lack of active investment [11]. Group 3: Revenue Models and Industry Shifts - Despite low DPI, Blackstone's private equity division generated 2.64 billion USD in distributable earnings in 2024, a 39.7% increase, suggesting a shift away from reliance on carry income [15][20]. - Blackstone's management fee income has increased significantly, while carry income has not kept pace, indicating a strategic move towards a more stable revenue model [18][19]. - KKR is also transitioning its business model to focus on dividends rather than carry, which has led to a significant increase in assets under management (AUM) and market value [22][23]. Group 4: Industry Outlook and Evolution - The VC/PE industry is entering a low-margin era, with many firms struggling to maintain profitability amid increasing operational costs and tighter fee structures [25][26]. - The traditional business model of relying on carry for income is being challenged, prompting firms to explore alternative strategies, such as focusing on operational capabilities and dividend income [29][30].

Core Insights - Investors in the Financial - Miscellaneous Services sector should consider Inter & Co. Inc. (INTR) and Blackstone Inc. (BX) for potential value opportunities [1] Valuation Metrics - Inter & Co. Inc. has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a positive earnings outlook, while Blackstone Inc. has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [3] - INTR has a forward P/E ratio of 13.24, significantly lower than BX's forward P/E of 28.53 [5] - The PEG ratio for INTR is 0.38, suggesting better value compared to BX's PEG ratio of 1.25 [5] - INTR's P/B ratio is 2.02, while BX's P/B ratio is 5.39, further indicating INTR's relative undervaluation [6] - These metrics contribute to INTR's Value grade of A and BX's Value grade of D [6] Earnings Outlook - INTR is noted for its improving earnings outlook, making it a more attractive option in the current market [7]

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Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs is raising its largest-ever S fund, targeting over $14.2 billion (approximately 101.9 billion RMB) to capitalize on the current secondary market opportunities created by other firms selling assets at discounted prices [2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The secondary market is experiencing a surge in activity, with significant transactions occurring as institutions seek liquidity amid a prolonged IPO drought [11]. - Blackstone recently completed a $5 billion S transaction involving over 125 private equity funds, indicating a robust appetite for secondary market deals [7]. - Yale University's endowment fund is reportedly selling private equity assets worth up to $6 billion, reflecting a trend among top-tier endowments to offload assets at discounted prices [8][11]. Group 2: Fundraising Trends - Goldman Sachs' new S fund is part of its Vintage series, primarily targeting institutional investors, with the final size still to be determined based on fundraising outcomes [6]. - Apollo Global Management raised $540 million for its first S fund, while Rothschild completed a fundraising exceeding €2 billion for its S fund, showcasing strong interest in this investment strategy [10]. - The global secondary market fundraising reached $5.21 billion in Q1 2025, nearly half of the total for the previous year, indicating a growing trend in this sector [10]. Group 3: Liquidity Challenges - The decline in IPO activity since 2021 has left many private equity firms with unsold assets, prompting a search for alternative liquidity solutions [11]. - The demand for cash flow recovery among limited partners (LPs) has intensified, leading to increased asset sales at discounts of 10% to 20% [11][12]. - The current market conditions suggest a buyer's market, where institutions capable of acquiring assets have greater negotiating power [12].

Group 1 - Blackstone plans to invest up to $500 billion in Europe over the next decade, having already invested nearly $100 billion in the U.K. [1][7] - The company's London office currently employs 650 people, indicating a strong presence in the region [1][7]. - Blackstone's CEO, Steve Schwarzman, believes that Europe's changing approach will lead to higher growth rates, presenting a "major opportunity" for the firm [3]. Group 2 - Recent interest in Europe from investment firms is driven by impressive growth prospects, influenced by geopolitical changes and increased defense spending in the European Union [2]. - Germany has approved historic spending plans, further enhancing the investment landscape in Europe [2]. - Blackstone's diversified products and revenue mix are expected to support growth in assets under management (AUM), with fee-earning AUM witnessing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.3% over the past four years [5]. Group 3 - Despite a decline in segment revenues in 2023, Blackstone has a strong global presence and solid organic growth prospects, with a four-year CAGR of 15.6% [4]. - The company's shares have lost 24.9% over the past six months, compared to an industry decline of 11.2% [6].

Group 1 - Blackstone plans to invest $500 billion in Europe over the next decade, marking a significant milestone for its London operations on the 25th anniversary of its office there [1] - Since opening its London office in 2000, Blackstone has grown to manage over $1 trillion in assets globally and has become the largest fund manager in the European real estate sector [1] - Blackstone's CEO, Steve Schwarzman, highlighted that the London office now employs 650 people and has invested approximately $100 billion in the UK, making it one of the largest foreign investors in the country [1] Group 2 - At the SuperReturn international conference in Berlin, investment giants like BC Partners, Permira, and Brookfield Asset Management endorsed Europe as a key investment destination amid rising global economic risks [2] - Schwarzman emphasized that the shift in investment strategies in Europe presents a significant opportunity for growth, with Blackstone's investments in urban logistics becoming some of its most profitable [2] - Blackstone is also focusing on investments in the Middle East, viewing cities like Riyadh and Dubai as attractive opportunities due to their rapid development as international hubs [2]

智通财经6月10日电，黑石计划未来十年在欧洲投资5000亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - Blackstone plans to invest $500 billion in Europe over the next decade [1]

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Core Viewpoint - Blackstone Inc. is currently in the 6th Phase of its 18-Phase Adhishthana Cycle, with potential for value accumulation, but significant breakout may not occur until late 2026 [1][16]. Group 1: Current Cycle Analysis - Blackstone has completed one full 18-phase Adhishthana Cycle and is currently in its 6th cycle, which began on October 11, 2021, showing a 99% alignment with Adhishthana Principles [2][3]. - The stock is expected to revisit the low of the previous phase before moving higher, having already completed this retest, making current valuations attractive [6][12]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - The Level of Nirvana for Phase 6 will be confirmed on October 19, 2025, and if Blackstone remains below this level, it will be considered a long-term value play [7][13]. - The anticipated Level of Nirvana is estimated to settle around $129–$130, based on recent highs and potential price movements [13]. Group 3: Future Projections - Late 2026 is critical for Blackstone as it is expected to enter Phase 9 of its weekly Adhishthana Cycle, which is characterized by significant breakout potential [14][15]. - Current price levels suggest a solid long-term value case, with short-term corrections towards $104 being probable and healthy before a potential breakout [15][16].