Core Viewpoint - Artificial intelligence (AI) remains a dominant theme in the market as of 2025, yet the stocks most associated with this technology, referred to as the Magnificent 7, have experienced volatility or underperformance [1] Group 1: AI Market Impact - The Magnificent 7 stocks include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, which are closely tied to AI technology [1] - Despite the prominence of AI in market discussions, these stocks have not consistently performed well, indicating potential challenges in the sector [1]

Summary of U.S. Machinery & Electricals Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the machinery and electrical equipment industry, highlighting a cyclical recovery expected in 2026 after a challenging 2025, where estimates fell by 5-10% due to a downturn in core markets such as truck, agricultural, and construction equipment [1][12]. Key Points Cyclical Recovery - 2026 is anticipated to be a recovery year driven by aligned monetary and fiscal policies, which are expected to restart positive estimate revisions, with potential upside in low single digits to mid single digits [1][12]. - The recovery is not yet priced into the market, with current pricing reflecting a PMI of around 50, indicating stagnation [2][13]. Construction Equipment - Construction equipment is viewed as a tightly coiled spring, with looser monetary policy and strong fiscal impulses expected to impact the non-residential sector positively in 2026 [3][14]. - The supply/demand balance for construction equipment is tightening, with utilization rates and rental rates increasing, while inventories of used and new equipment are decreasing [3][14]. Truck and Agricultural Equipment - North American heavy-duty truck production is projected to decline by 6% year-over-year in 2026, with production expected to hit 225,000 units, which is 40,000 units below replacement levels [4][15]. - Agricultural equipment demand is expected to reach a 40-year low, declining by 10-15% year-over-year, but improving farmer profits and tighter inventories signal a potential trough [4][15]. Electrical Equipment - Demand for electrical equipment is expected to remain strong in 2026, with growth driven by data center capacity build-out, although regulatory obstacles and political factors may create friction [5][16]. - Four key factors to monitor include regulatory impacts on growth, shifts in utility capital expenditures, political implications of electricity price inflation, and the increasing importance of behind-the-meter solutions for data centers [5][16]. Investment Implications Top Stock Picks for 2026 - **United Rentals (URI)**: Top pick with a price target of $1,128, representing a 42% potential upside, driven by a cyclical recovery and business transformation [6][17]. - **Trimble (TRMB)**: Price target of $99, with a 25% potential upside, benefiting from low tech penetration in construction and expected earnings growth [6][18]. - **Hubbell (HUBB)**: Price target of $530, with a 23% potential upside, expected to benefit from organic growth and a cyclical recovery [6][19]. - **PACCAR (PCAR)**: Price target of $125, with a 12% potential upside, positioned to benefit from cyclical recovery in the truck market [6][22]. - **Eaton (ETN)**: Price target of $395, with a 25% potential upside, navigating growth challenges but set for recovery [6][23]. Valuation Insights - The report emphasizes that many stocks in the machinery and electrical sector are undervalued, trading at a discount compared to historical averages, suggesting significant upside potential as the market recovers [12][46]. Additional Insights - The report notes that the effects of tax reform could unlock $800 billion in fiscal stimulus, positively impacting non-residential construction and truck sectors [12][46]. - The cyclical recovery is expected to lead to a double-digit growth in estimates, driven by monetary policy and fiscal stimulus [12][46]. This comprehensive outlook indicates a significant potential for recovery in the machinery and electrical sectors, with specific stocks poised to benefit from the anticipated economic conditions in 2026.

Group 1 - Caterpillar Inc. is considered one of the best long-term stocks to buy, with hedge funds showing strong interest [1] - Citi analysts raised Caterpillar's price target to $690 from $670, maintaining a Buy rating due to positive outlook in the machinery sector [1] - Truist Securities also reiterated a Buy rating, highlighting a strong backlog for power generation applications reaching $40 billion [2] Group 2 - Caterpillar has announced it will maintain its quarterly dividend at $1.51 per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder value [3] - The dividend will be paid on February 19 to shareholders of record as of January 20, 2026, representing an annual yield of 1.02% [3] - Caterpillar is the world's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, providing heavy machinery, power systems, and digital solutions across various industries [4]

Core Viewpoint - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT.US), once dubbed the "AI darling" of the U.S. stock market, has recently faced significant setbacks, highlighting investor skepticism regarding the sustainability of the AI investment frenzy and the potential returns from massive investments in AI data centers [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Caterpillar's stock price has experienced a notable decline, dropping 9.6% over the worst five-day period since April, making it the weakest component of the S&P 500 Machinery Index [1][6]. - Despite the recent downturn, Caterpillar's stock had risen approximately 60% year-to-date, driven by its involvement in the AI power supply chain, particularly through its gas turbine business [6][8]. - The company remains a key player in the construction and mining equipment sector, often viewed as a barometer for global economic health [6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The broader market has seen a rotation away from AI-related stocks, with significant declines in companies like GE Vernova and Vertiv, which are also tied to AI data center infrastructure [7]. - Analysts express concerns that the current AI investment narrative may be nearing its peak, with skepticism growing about the long-term viability of returns from AI investments [5][8]. - High-profile investment firms are increasingly questioning the sustainability of the AI boom, likening it to the internet bubble, and are focusing on identifying the true beneficiaries of AI advancements [5][6].

Core Insights - The global supply chain is anticipated to undergo significant changes by 2026 due to geopolitical tensions, regulatory shifts, and rising cost pressures that have disrupted international trade and increased uncertainty for businesses worldwide [1][2] Group 1: Industry Trends - Manufacturing companies are increasingly focusing on domestic manufacturing, technological advancements, and building resilient supply-chain networks as they prepare for 2026 [2] - This strategic shift is leading to heightened investments in U.S.-based facilities, productivity-enhancing technologies, and regional suppliers [2] Group 2: Key Manufacturing Stocks - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), EnerSys (ENS), and Honeywell International Inc. (HON) are identified as potential investment opportunities due to their strong positioning for supply-chain diversification into 2026 [3][8] Group 3: Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) - Caterpillar is the largest global construction and mining equipment manufacturer, providing products and services across various sectors [4] - The company is diversifying its supply chain by building a reliable network of suppliers and reducing dependence on a limited number of suppliers [5] - Caterpillar is expanding its U.S. operations, including new facilities in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and investments in Indiana to enhance workforce skills and engine production [6] - The stock has surged 54.6% in the past year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings revised 3.5% upward over the past 60 days [7] Group 4: EnerSys (ENS) - EnerSys specializes in manufacturing industrial batteries and is realigning its manufacturing footprint by relocating production to the U.S. to reduce tariff exposure [10][11] - The company is engaging minority and veteran-owned suppliers and implementing sustainability initiatives to enhance supply-chain resilience [11] - EnerSys has seen a 56.2% increase in shares over the past year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings revised 5.3% upward [12] Group 5: Honeywell International Inc. (HON) - Honeywell is a diversified technology and manufacturing company with a wide range of products and services [14][15] - The company is diversifying its supply chain by reducing reliance on single suppliers and regions, and implementing dual-sourcing strategies [16] - Despite a 13.2% decline in shares over the past year, Honeywell has rebounded 5.3% in the past month, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings revised 1.4% upward [17]

Core Insights - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law on July 4, will significantly impact markets starting in January, particularly benefiting cyclical sectors outside of tech and AI [1][2] - Société Générale's chief US equity strategist, Manish Kabra, has identified 30 stocks that are expected to benefit from the tax and regulatory breaks provided by the bill, focusing on financials, industrials, and consumer cyclicals [2] Beneficiary Sectors - Key sectors poised for growth include defense, small-caps, consumer, and energy, as they are expected to receive a boost from the new tax and regulatory policies [2] - The average forward price-to-earnings ratio for the identified stocks is 17x, with an expected earnings-per-share growth of 15% in 2026 and 2027 [3] Defense Beneficiaries - General Dynamics Corp (GD): Positioned for defense modernization funding [6] - L3Harris Technologies Inc (LHX): Benefits from investment in advanced systems [6] - Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC): Well-placed for missile defense and space programs [6] - Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII): Supported by naval modernization initiatives [6] Capex Incentive Beneficiaries - United Rentals Inc (URI): Set to gain from increased construction activity [6] - Jacobs Solutions Inc (J): Benefits from infrastructure upgrades and industrial investment incentives [6] - Trimble Inc (TRMB): Aligned with manufacturing investment push [6] - Caterpillar Inc (CAT): Benefits from accelerated depreciation and domestic production incentives [6] - Cummins Inc (CMI): Supported by R&D expensing and industrial investment [6] - Deere & Co (DE): Gains from capex incentives and domestic manufacturing support [6] - Nucor Corp (NUE): Benefits from industrial base expansion and construction demand [6] - Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX): Critical supplier for electrification and infrastructure projects [6] - Duke Energy Corp (DUK): Positioned for grid modernization under capex policies [7]

Caterpillar’s AI-powered rally stumbled as investors questioned the sustainability of the trade across US equities, sending the stock tumbling from a record high in its worst five-day stretch since April https://t.co/aarlt81IDS ...

Core Insights - US core inflation unexpectedly eased to a four-year low, raising questions among economists about the reliability of the data due to a prior government shutdown [8][14] - ByteDance has signed an agreement to establish a joint venture in the US with majority ownership by American investors [8][14] Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16% at 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 1.29% and the ChiNext Index dropped 2.17% [1] - The Hong Kong market also saw fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.12% at 25498.13 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.73% [1][5] Economic Indicators - The US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November, while the overall CPI increased by 2.7% [14] - The report indicated that core CPI only increased by 0.2% over the last two months, with declines in hotel, leisure, and clothing prices limiting the overall increase [14] Corporate Developments - TikTok announced the establishment of a joint venture with US investors, which will operate independently and manage US data protection and algorithm security [8][14] - China has reportedly ordered 7 million tons of US soybeans, achieving over half of the procurement target set during the Trump administration [8][14]

Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Komatsu Ltd. (KMTUY) are leading manufacturers in the heavy equipment sector, with Caterpillar holding the top position globally [1][2] - Both companies serve diverse markets including infrastructure, construction, mining, oil and gas, and transportation [1] Company Overview - Caterpillar has a market capitalization of $275.6 billion, while Komatsu's market capitalization stands at $30.4 billion [2] - Approximately 80% of Komatsu's revenues are generated outside Japan, indicating a strong international presence [2] Financial Performance Caterpillar - In Q3 2025, Caterpillar reported record revenues of $17.6 billion, a 9.5% increase year-over-year, driven by a 10% rise in sales volume [4] - The company anticipates modest revenue growth for 2025, with projected revenues between $42 billion and $72 billion [5] - Caterpillar's earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 was $4.95, down 4% year-over-year due to tariff pressures [4][5] Komatsu - Komatsu reported a 2.6% decline in net sales to JPY982.1 billion ($6.3 million) in Q2 of fiscal 2025, with net income down 8.1% to JPY84.5 billion [11] - For fiscal 2025, Komatsu expects a 5.3% decline in net sales and a 27.2% drop in net income [14] - The Construction, Mining and Utility Equipment segment saw a 4% decline in net sales, with segment profit decreasing by 11.8% [11] Market Trends and Opportunities Caterpillar - The U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is expected to drive demand for Caterpillar's construction equipment [6] - The shift towards clean energy is anticipated to increase demand for Caterpillar's mining equipment [6] - Caterpillar is experiencing strong order levels for engines used in data centers, planning to double output through capital investment [7] Komatsu - Komatsu is focusing on technological innovation and automation to enhance its market position [16] - The company plans to expand its aftermarket business, which accounts for about 50% of sales in construction, mining, and utility equipment [17] Valuation and Performance Comparison - Over the past six months, CAT stock has gained 56.2%, while KMTUY has only gained 1.9% [20] - Caterpillar trades at a forward earnings multiple of 25.80X, compared to Komatsu's 11.89X, indicating a premium valuation for Caterpillar [21] - Caterpillar's return on equity (ROE) is 47.16%, significantly higher than Komatsu's 12.41% [24] Investment Outlook - Caterpillar is positioned for growth with a positive revenue outlook and strong earnings momentum, while Komatsu faces challenges with declining sales [25][26] - Caterpillar holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), while Komatsu has a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), making Caterpillar a more attractive investment option at this time [26]

Core Insights - CalAmp has achieved the Caterpillar Supplier Excellence Certification for 2025, marking the second consecutive year of receiving this recognition, which highlights the company's adherence to high standards in quality, on-time delivery, service, and manufacturing discipline [2][3]. Supplier Performance - The Caterpillar Supplier Excellence Recognition program identifies top-performing suppliers that consistently excel in quality, delivery, service, capacity planning, and compliance, placing CalAmp among the elite suppliers in Caterpillar's global supply chain [3]. - Over the past year, CalAmp recorded a defect rate of 51 defects per million incoming parts, translating to approximately 0.005 percent, or one defect in every 20,000 parts shipped, showcasing the company's commitment to quality [5]. Manufacturing Standards - CalAmp has implemented an Automotive Quality Management System aligned with IATF 16949 principles to meet the rigorous requirements of automotive OEMs, ensuring that each device is designed and manufactured to high standards [7]. - The company emphasizes early planning and feasibility reviews before production, defined manufacturing and testing processes, extensive reliability and environmental testing, and strict governance over design and component changes to ensure long-term product stability [11]. Commitment to Innovation - As OEMs evolve their connected equipment strategies, CalAmp focuses on delivering robust, reliable, and secure telematics solutions, supporting various industries such as construction, mining, agriculture, and on-road equipment [8]. - The company has over 10 million active edge devices and holds more than 220 approved or pending patents, positioning itself as a leader in telematics innovation and dependability [9].