这份数据远超3.2%的市场预期，令市场担心美联储在2026年初降息的可能性降低。芝加哥商品交易所 美联储观察工具的数据显示，报告发布后，联邦基金利率期货交易员略微增加了押注，认为美联储将在 明年1月和3月的议息会议上维持利率不变。 由于今年第一季度美国经济出现负增长，第四季度经济增长预计将因联邦政府"停摆"等因素明显放缓， 多家研究机构预计，2025年美国经济增速将为2%或更低水平。 Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示："交易量可能会比较清淡，但在年底之前， 阻力最小的路径仍然是上涨。"他称周二公布的GDP数据"非常出色"。 22V Research经济学家Peter Williams表示："这一略好于我们乐观基线预期的数据，在一定程度上削弱 了近期降息的理由。" 智通财经获悉，周二，在科技股上涨抵消了投资者对美国经济强劲增长可能导致降息推迟的担忧后，标 普500指数收涨0.5%至6909.79点，为连续第四个交易日上涨，创下历史收盘新高。 英伟达(NVDA.US)、博通(AVGO.US)以及谷歌(GOOGL.US)等大型科技股的上涨抵消了医疗 ...

Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示："交易量可能会比较清淡，但在年底之前， 阻力最小的路径仍然是上涨。"他称周二公布的GDP数据"非常出色"。 22V Research经济学家Peter Williams表示："这一略好于我们乐观基线预期的数据，在一定程度上削弱 了近期降息的理由。" 周二，在科技股上涨抵消了投资者对美国经济强劲增长可能导致降息推迟的担忧后，标普500指数收涨 0.5%至6909.79点，为连续第四个交易日上涨，创下历史收盘新高。 英伟达(NVDA.US)、博通(AVGO.US)以及谷歌(GOOGL.US)等大型科技股的上涨抵消了医疗保健和必需 消费品板块的疲软。不过，上涨范围较为狭窄，标普500等权重指数反而下跌了0.3%。以科技股为主的 纳斯达克100指数上涨0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数收涨0.2%。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)徘徊 在14以下。 数据显示，2025年第三季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)环比按年率计算增长4.3%，高于第二季度3.8%的增 速和市场预期的3.3%。美国商务部表示，第三季度经济增速加快主要 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着油价回落，美国经济增长有望加速，通胀持续降温则强化了美联储降息预期， 与此同时，选股者正将目光投向人工智能(AI)概念股之外的领域，美国消费市场也保持着旺盛的消费活 力。 这意味着，金融、工业以及非必需消费品供应商有望成为华尔街预期的美国股市又一强劲年度的领跑力 量。接受一项调查的约60位经济学家预测，明年美国经济平均增长目标为2%——这一增速虽然算不上 强劲，但足以推动科技板块之外的领域实现上涨。 Piper Sandler首席投资策略师兼投资组合策略主管Michael Kantrowitz表示："投资者已开始嗅到经济周期 性领域触底回升的初步迹象。" Kantrowitz补充道："随着周期数据改善，2026年价值股或将久违地跑赢大盘。我们应提前布局那些明年 盈利预期有望边际改善的标的。" 这些因素共同构成了对经济周期最为敏感的上市公司近乎完美的利好环境。因此，策略师和分析师预 计，摩根大通(JPM.US)等银行、卡特彼勒(CAT.US)等设备制造商，以及Gap(GAP.US)和美元树公司 (DLTR.US)等零售商，将在2026年表现优异。 事实上，市场风格切换的趋势已悄然显现。高 ...

| ■ US 30 | 47,963.60 | 47,988.50 | 47,897.00 | +8.60 | +0.02% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,875.90 | 6,885.50 | 6,863.00 | +5.50 | +0.08% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 25,753.10 | 25,784.80 | 25,662.00 | +61.00 | +0.24% | 2.截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.17%，法国CAC40指数跌0.17%，英国富时100指数涨0.17%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌 0.02%。 | 德国30 | 2025年12月 | 24,101.80 | 24,116.00 | 24,009.30 | +39.80 | +0.17% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 法国40 | 2025年12月 | 8,108.50 | 8,131.50 | 8,086.50 | -13.50 | -0.17% | | 英国100 | 2025 ...

Group 1 - The MSCI China Index will officially include 26 new Chinese stocks and exclude 20 stocks after the market closes on November 24, 2025, which will lead to increased passive fund tracking for the newly included companies [6] - The latest DDR5 product series from Changxin Storage has been announced, featuring a maximum speed of 8000 Mbps and a maximum particle capacity of 24 Gb, positioning the company among the industry's top tier [12] - Xiaomi clarified that a recent fire incident in its automotive factory was due to operational errors during equipment debugging, not a design flaw in the battery itself [10] Group 2 - The full-solid-state battery production line has been established in China, with small-scale testing currently underway, promising enhanced safety and longer range for electric vehicles [7] - The A-share market is experiencing a short-term adjustment, but the fundamental factors supporting the current upward trend remain unchanged, suggesting potential investment opportunities for the upcoming spring market [8][16] - The semiconductor industry is facing potential threats due to unilateral actions from ASML Netherlands, with a call for constructive dialogue to resolve disputes and stabilize the global supply chain [13]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower today, with the Hang Seng Index at 26,441.70 points, down 130.76 points, a decline of 0.49% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reported 5,771.51 points, down 41.29 points, a decrease of 0.71% [2] Company News - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced an adjustment to the Hong Kong Stock Connect securities list, adding Guanghe Tong (00638.HK) effective November 17, 2025, following the end of its price stabilization period in the Hong Kong market. Guanghe Tong's stock fell over 3% in early trading today [3] Sector Performance - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with Baidu and Lenovo down over 2%, while Alibaba opened down over 1% but later turned positive. Semiconductor stocks opened higher, with Hongguang Semiconductor up over 3%, Huahong Semiconductor up over 2%, and SMIC up over 1% [5] - New consumption concepts were active, with Cha Baidao rising over 1%. Gold stocks generally fell, with Chifeng Gold down over 2%. Insurance stocks opened lower, with AIA down over 2%. Airline stocks weakened, with China Eastern Airlines down over 4% [5] Investment Strategy - Huatai Securities indicated that after a high-to-low switch in the Hong Kong market, sectors that have lagged this year, such as agriculture, real estate, pharmaceuticals, oil and petrochemicals, and textiles, have shown significant movement. In the absence of clear improvement in earnings data, funds are switching early due to liquidity pressures and unclear main lines. It is suggested to focus on consumer services, construction, textiles, home appliances, and defensive dividend stocks [5] - Industrial Research noted a continued rotation towards defensive styles in the Hong Kong market, with net inflows from southbound funds slowing to HKD 24.8 billion last week from HKD 38.7 billion the previous week, primarily increasing positions in banks. The short-selling ratio slightly decreased to 17.1%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment [6] - Future market risk appetite is expected to remain cautious, with rapid rotation of market hotspots. Investors may turn to dividend stocks for defense amid uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [6]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance from November 10 to November 14, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.26% to 26,572.46 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.42%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.41% [1][2] - Among the primary sectors, seven sectors saw gains while four experienced declines, with real estate, healthcare, and consumer goods leading the gains at 5.58%, 5.13%, and 4.74% respectively [2] Liquidity Analysis - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 233.12 billion, an increase of HKD 2.59 billion from the previous week, while the average short-selling amount decreased by HKD 1.11 billion to HKD 28.36 billion [3] - The net inflow of southbound funds totaled HKD 24.77 billion, a decrease of HKD 13.91 billion compared to the previous week [3] Valuation and Risk Appetite - As of November 14, the Hang Seng Index had a PE ratio of 12.05 and a PB ratio of 1.24, reflecting increases of 1.53% and 1.44% respectively, placing it at the 86% and 91% percentile levels since 2019 [4] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was recorded at 4.16%, which is significantly below the three-year rolling average [4] Investment Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a cautious risk appetite, with a rotation of hot sectors anticipated, leading to a potential continuation of a volatile trading environment [5] - Investment recommendations include focusing on cyclical stocks that may rebound due to changing supply-demand dynamics and dividend stocks as a defensive strategy amid uncertainties regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policies [5]

今天消费股的好消息终于来了，一口气来了3个，引发消费股集体暴涨： 第一，刺激消费利好出炉。11月7日，财政部发布2025年上半年中国财政政策执行情况报告，将继续实 施好提振消费专项行动。 第二，CPI持续走强。10月份，CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%。 第三，海南将迎来全岛封关。12月18日海南封关后将迎来全新发展阶段，三大税收优惠，会撬动海南多 大的杠杆呢？ 受这3大利好消息刺激，整个消费行业表现非常强势。 首先，海南12月18日封关发展，税收优惠确实是相当炸裂。 第一，货物"零关税"。商品税目比例从21%提升至74%(约6600个税目)。 不过，我是不太想参与海南的炒作，海南本地股，坑比较多，懂得都懂。 最后，大家最关心的行业——白酒。 今天白酒疯狂上涨，是不是行业的春天终于来了？ 对于白酒，我的思路是这样的： 第一，白酒的弹性大概率是排在周期后面。经济先好转，然后在消费，消费没有那么快回复。 第二，我投资白酒还是喜欢先看业绩。业绩转向后，弹性未来会很大，我不介意多等一两个季度的，白 酒不是周期股，不玩那种预期业绩改善提前布局的玩法，这是周期股的玩法，不是消费股，这点你得清 楚。 第二，加工增值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its volatile trend as year-end approaches, with a cautious risk appetite among investors. Key sectors to watch include cyclical stocks benefiting from rising downstream commodity prices, dividend stocks for defensive strategies, and sectors positively impacted by improving China-US trade relations [1][4]. Market Performance - During the week of November 3 to November 7, the Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.29%, while the Technology Index fell by 1.20%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index increased by 1.08% [2]. - Among the primary sectors, Energy, Financials, and Utilities saw the highest gains, with increases of 6.02%, 3.45%, and 3.14% respectively. Conversely, Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology experienced declines of 3.05%, 1.80%, and 0.77% respectively [2]. Liquidity Analysis - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 230.53 billion, a decrease of HKD 49.99 billion from the previous week. The average short-selling amount was HKD 29.46 billion, down by HKD 2.08 billion, with short-selling accounting for 12.79% of the trading volume, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [2]. - Cumulative net inflow from southbound funds reached HKD 38.68 billion, an increase of HKD 11.19 billion compared to the previous week [2]. Valuation and Risk Appetite - As of November 7, the Hang Seng Index had a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 11.87 and a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 1.23, reflecting increases of 1.81% and 1.87% respectively, positioning it at the 85% and 88% percentile levels since 2019. The Hang Seng Technology Index had a PE of 22.69 and a PB of 3.30, at the 28% and 69% percentile levels respectively [3]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.32%, which is -1.86 standard deviations from the 3-year rolling mean, placing it at the 6% percentile since 2010 [3]. Investment Outlook - Internationally, the U.S. Supreme Court raised questions about the legality of Trump's tariffs, leading to expectations of potential tariff reductions. In October, U.S. private sector employment increased by 42,000, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000 [4]. - Domestically, China's total goods trade value in October was CNY 3.7 trillion, a 0.1% increase, with exports at CNY 2.17 trillion (down 0.8%) and imports at CNY 1.53 trillion (up 1.4%) [4]. - The market is advised to focus on cyclical stocks due to changing supply-demand dynamics, dividend stocks for defensive positioning, and sectors benefiting from improved China-US trade relations [4].

Core Viewpoint - Barclays anticipates a year-end rally in the stock market due to several factors including cleaner market positioning, seasonal positive influences, resilient corporate earnings, the resumption of share buybacks, and the potential early end to quantitative tightening [1] Group 1 - Market positioning has returned to neutral levels following a correction in October, establishing a healthier foundation for the market [1] - Strong capital inflows in the U.S. market are expected to continue, while sentiment in the EU and UK markets is also improving [1] - Funds chasing corporate performance are likely to favor cyclical stocks as the year-end approaches, creating a favorable environment for further market gains [1]