表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中國蒙牛乳業有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年9月3日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02319 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strategy to support its stock price amid recent declines [2][3]. Share Buyback Details - On September 2, Mengniu Dairy repurchased 1 million shares at a price range of HKD 14.870 to HKD 15.080, totaling HKD 14.9742 million [2]. - The stock closed at HKD 14.950 on the same day, reflecting a decrease of 1.19%, with a total trading volume of HKD 468 million [2]. - Since August 28, the company has conducted buybacks for four consecutive days, acquiring a total of 2.028 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 30.8157 million, during which the stock price fell by 7.72% [2]. Year-to-Date Buyback Activity - Year-to-date, Mengniu Dairy has executed 68 buybacks, acquiring a total of 16.23 million shares for a total expenditure of HKD 27.6 million [3].

Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Mengniu Dairy - **Ticker**: 2319.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$59.5 billion / $7.6 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$79.5 billion / $10.2 billion - **Industry**: China Consumer Staples Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Sales and Revenue Guidance - Management guided for a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit percentage decline in top line for FY25, with liquid milk expected to decline slightly, narrowing from a -11% decline in 1H25 to a better performance in 2H25 [1] - The company remains cautious about gifting demand trends for the Mid-Autumn Festival in Q3 and for Q4 due to a later Chinese New Year [1] 2B Business Highlights - Mengniu expects its 2B overall sales to reach approximately Rmb10 billion in 2025, with a double-digit percentage year-on-year growth rate [1] - Breakdown of the Rmb10 billion sales target: 60% from liquid milk (mainly from coffee/tea chained stores and food service) and 40% from solid milk (driven by sales from Australian plants and Milkground cheese) [1] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) for 2B business is expected to be lower than 2C, but Operating Profit Margin (OPM) remains healthy, particularly for the 2B liquid milk business, which can achieve around 5% Net Profit Margin (NPM) [1] Long-term Margin Opportunities - Management anticipates cheese sales to exceed Rmb5 billion, with Rmb2.3 billion achieved in 1H25, and ice cream sales to reach approximately Rmb6 billion, with Rmb3.9 billion in 1H25 [1] - Southeast Asia's EBITDA margin doubled last year with sales up by double digits, and NPM is nearing group-level [1] - Positive growth is expected to resume in the infant formula segment, contributing to long-term margin expansion from non-liquid milk business [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The winter season will be critical for observing supply/demand dynamics, with management noting a prolonged downcycle in 2025 YTD, showing a high-single-digit percentage year-on-year decline in demand for liquid milk [1] - Supply side is expected to cut by a low-single-digit percentage into Q3, with large-scale dairy farms reluctant to reduce herd size [1] - Potential supply/demand re-balancing opportunity is anticipated into mid-2026, with smaller dairy farms expected to exit the market [1] One-off Items and Losses - The company noted a significant narrowing of losses in the dry powder resale unit, expecting a 40-50% reduction in these losses [1] - Associate losses from Modern Dairy are expected to be smaller in 2H25 compared to 1H25, despite ongoing impairments from herd size cuts [1] - A one-off disposal gain from the sale of a New Zealand factory is anticipated to be less than Rmb100 million in 2H25 [1] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY24: Rmb88,674.8 million - FY25E: Rmb82,590.5 million - FY26E: Rmb86,527.8 million - FY27E: Rmb90,594.7 million [3] - **EBITDA Forecasts**: - FY24: Rmb4,578.4 million - FY25E: Rmb8,992.1 million - FY26E: Rmb10,393.5 million - FY27E: Rmb11,266.0 million [3] - **EPS Forecasts**: - FY24: Rmb0.03 - FY25E: Rmb1.00 - FY26E: Rmb1.37 - FY27E: Rmb1.60 [3] Risks and Considerations - Key downside risks include slower-than-expected premium demand, slower recovery in dairy demand, increased competition in the dairy industry, and wider losses in new categories [27] Conclusion Mengniu Dairy is navigating a challenging market environment with cautious revenue projections for FY25, while focusing on growth in its 2B business and long-term margin opportunities. The company is also addressing supply/demand dynamics and potential losses in specific segments, indicating a strategic approach to stabilize and grow its business in the coming years.

Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy reported strong growth in its mid-year performance for 2025, achieving a revenue of 41.567 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.046 billion yuan, driven by significant growth in its fresh milk, ice cream, and cheese segments [1][2][4]. Revenue Performance - The liquid milk segment generated a revenue of 32.192 billion yuan, with fresh milk business growing by 22.3%, significantly outperforming the industry and increasing market share by 2.4 percentage points [2][4]. - Ice cream revenue reached 3.879 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15%, with the "Aixue" brand leading the market share in Indonesia [1][3]. - Cheese business revenue was 2.374 billion yuan, up 12.3%, maintaining a leading market position [4]. Strategic Developments - Mengniu has been accelerating strategic upgrades and operational efficiency, resulting in improved competitiveness, operational efficiency, and profitability [1][6]. - The company launched 72 new products in the ambient segment and 20 new ice cream products, focusing on health, premium, and personalized offerings [7]. Market Trends - The dairy industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality competition," creating significant opportunities for leading companies like Mengniu [6]. - The fresh milk segment is expected to become a key focus for dairy companies due to rising consumer health awareness and policy support [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company is poised to enter a harvest period if raw milk prices stabilize and demand improves, as the current downturn in raw milk prices is expected to reverse [5][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price raised from 16.4 HKD to 17.6 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current stock price [1][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 6.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 41.57 billion RMB and a net profit decrease of 14.9% to 2.15 billion RMB. The weak recovery in dairy product demand has negatively impacted performance [1][3]. - The forecast for net profit has been revised downwards for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 4.29 billion, 4.31 billion, and 5.15 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.14, 1.14, and 1.36 HKD [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The liquid milk segment saw a revenue drop of 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, totaling 32.19 billion RMB, while operating profit increased by 3.5% to 2.64 billion RMB, resulting in a profit margin of 8.2% [2]. - Ice cream revenue grew by 15% year-on-year to 3.88 billion RMB, with operating profit surging 60% to 620 million RMB, achieving a profit margin of 15.8% [2]. - Cheese revenue increased by 12.3% to 2.37 billion RMB, with operating profit rising 93.2% to 230 million RMB, reflecting a profit margin of 9.7% [2]. - The milk powder segment reported a revenue increase of 2.5% to 1.68 billion RMB, with a significant operating profit growth of 324.3% to 100 million RMB, resulting in a profit margin of 5.9% [2]. Valuation Analysis - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected revenue decline of 10.09% in 2023, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 2.56% and 6.03% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is projected at 25.5x for 2026, while the company is assigned a PE of 15x based on its industry position and growth prospects [12]. - The DCF valuation estimates a reasonable market value of 71.4 billion HKD, corresponding to a price of 18.2 HKD per share [14]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholders include COFCO Group with a 24.2% stake, followed by Pandanus Partners at 6.0% and Brown Brothers at 5.0%, with other shareholders holding 64.8% [7]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown relative returns of -10.90% over one month, -21.54% over three months, and -24.75% over twelve months, with absolute returns of -6.37%, -10.92%, and 17.66% respectively [9].

Group 1 - The company Mengniu Dairy (02319) announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase 1 million shares at a total cost of HKD 14.9742 million [1] - The buyback price range is set between HKD 14.87 and HKD 15.08 per share [1]

Group 1 - The company, Mengniu Dairy (02319), announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase 1 million shares at a total cost of HKD 14.9742 million [1] - The buyback price per share is set between HKD 14.87 and HKD 15.08 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) announced a share buyback of 1 million shares at a cost of HKD 14.974 million on September 2 [1] Group 1 - The company executed a buyback program, indicating confidence in its stock value [1] - The total expenditure for the buyback was approximately HKD 14.974 million [1] - The number of shares repurchased was 1 million [1]

FF305 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中國蒙牛乳業有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年9月2日 | 1). | 購回股份擬註銷但尚未註銷 | | 300,000 | 0.0077 % | HKD | 15.9229 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 變動日期 | 2025年8月28日 | | | | | | 2). | 購回股份擬註銷但尚未註銷 | | 228,000 | 0.0058 % | HKD | 15.2778 | | | 變動日期 | 2025年8月29日 | | | | | | 3). | 購回股份擬註銷但尚未註銷 | | 500,000 | 0.0128 % | HKD | 15.1625 | | | 變動日期 | 2025年9月1日 | | | | | | 4). | 購回股份擬註銷但尚未註銷 | | 1,000,000 | 0.0256 % | HKD | 14.9742 | | | 變動日期 | 2025年9月2日 | | | | | FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國蒙牛乳業有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02319 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 6,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 600,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 6,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 600,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本 ...