Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy with a target price of HKD 27.2, indicating a potential upside of 62% from the current stock price [1][2][4]. Core Insights - Mengniu Dairy reported a revenue of RMB 98.6 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. Operating profit was RMB 6.1 billion, up 6.3%, with an operating margin improvement of 0.4 percentage points. However, net profit decreased by 5.7% to RMB 4.88 billion [1][2]. - The company has undergone a change in leadership with the appointment of Gao Fei as the new president, while the strategic goals remain unchanged. The dividend payout ratio has been increased to 40% [1][2]. - The liquid milk segment showed steady growth with revenues of RMB 82 billion, a 4.9% increase, and an operating profit margin of 7.5% [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: Expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 5.39 billion, RMB 5.9 billion, and RMB 6.31 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.47, HKD 1.61, and HKD 1.73 [1][2][8]. - Ice Cream Business: Revenue reached RMB 6.02 billion, growing by 6.6%, with a significant profit margin increase to 7.1% [1][2]. - Cheese and Milk Powder: Cheese revenue was RMB 4.35 billion, while milk powder revenue declined by 1.6% to RMB 3.8 billion, with losses narrowing in the latter segment [1][2]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, suggesting a target price of HKD 27.2 based on a 2024 PE of 18x and a DCF valuation indicating a fair market value of HKD 27.9 [9][12]. - The average PE for comparable companies is noted at 13.9x, reflecting the competitive advantages of Mengniu in a currently low valuation environment [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.1, representing a potential upside of 23.5% from the current price of HKD 17.1 [6][15]. Core Insights - Mengniu's revenue growth faces challenges due to industry demand slowdown, oversupply of raw milk, and intensified competition. Recent management changes may lead to short-term market sentiment fluctuations, but the company's strong product development and innovation capabilities in the liquid milk sector support long-term growth potential [5][6]. - The forecast predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% for the net profit attributable to shareholders from 2023 to 2026, driven by continuous margin expansion [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: RMB 92,593 million - 2023: RMB 98,624 million (YoY growth of 6.5%) - 2024: RMB 100,836 million (YoY growth of 2.2%) - 2025: RMB 105,095 million (YoY growth of 4.2%) - 2026: RMB 109,810 million (YoY growth of 4.5%) [10][12]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022: RMB 5,303 million - 2023: RMB 4,809 million (YoY decline of 9.3%) - 2024: RMB 5,467 million (YoY growth of 13.7%) - 2025: RMB 6,291 million (YoY growth of 15.1%) - 2026: RMB 7,163 million (YoY growth of 13.9%) [10][12]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross Margin: Expected to improve from 35.3% in 2022 to 38.0% by 2026 - Operating Margin: Expected to increase from 5.9% in 2022 to 7.3% by 2026 - Return on Equity (ROE): Projected to rise from 15.1% in 2022 to 13.3% by 2026 [10][12]. Growth Drivers - Key growth areas identified for 2024 include: - Continued strong growth for the premium product "Te Long Su" - Positive expansion trends in ice cream sales overseas - Significant revenue growth for Bellamy's, with over 40% YoY increase in 2023 - Recovery in low-temperature yogurt sales after a significant decline - Fresh milk expected to contribute to revenue growth above the company average [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) [3] Core Views - Mengniu Dairy's 2023 annual report shows a stable operating performance with a revenue of 98.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.51%, while net profit decreased by 9.31% to 4.809 billion yuan. The second half of 2023 saw revenue of 47.506 billion yuan, up 5.87%, and net profit increased by 15.28% to 1.789 billion yuan [2] - The liquid milk business remains robust, while the milk powder segment is undergoing adjustments. Revenue from liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, cheese, and other dairy products for 2023 was 82.071 billion, 6.026 billion, 3.802 billion, 4.357 billion, and 2.368 billion yuan respectively, with notable growth in cheese products due to the consolidation of Miao Ke Lan Duo [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing channel layouts and quality development, with expectations for steady revenue growth in 2024. The decline in raw milk prices is anticipated to enhance gross margins, while marketing efficiency is expected to improve [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Mengniu Dairy achieved a gross margin of 37.15%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining raw milk prices and product structure optimization. The sales expense ratio rose to 25.54%, up 1.41 percentage points, reflecting increased brand promotion activities [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 5.497 billion, 6.107 billion, and 6.631 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.40, 1.55, and 1.69 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 9 for 2024-2026 [2][7] Market Data - The total share capital is 3.935 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of 661.13 billion HKD. The stock price has fluctuated between 16.00 and 34.55 HKD over the past year [4][5]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [1] Core Views - The company's liquid milk segment shows steady growth, with fresh milk maintaining a strong market position [3] - The acquisition of Miaokelanduo significantly boosted the cheese business revenue [3] - Gross margin continues to improve due to lower raw milk prices and product structure upgrades [3] - The company's channel advantages and rapid new product iterations are expected to further enhance market share [4] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 reached 990.95 billion yuan, a 6.62% year-on-year increase [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.809 billion yuan, a 9.31% year-on-year decrease [3] - Gross margin for 2023 was 37.15%, up 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Sales expenses increased, with the sales expense ratio rising to 25.54%, up 1.41 percentage points [3] Business Segments - Liquid milk revenue in 2023 was 82.071 billion yuan, a 4.86% year-on-year increase [3] - Cheese business revenue surged by 229.81% to 4.357 billion yuan, mainly due to the Miaokelanduo acquisition [3] - Ice cream and milk powder segments showed mixed performance, with ice cream revenue up 6.62% and milk powder down 1.56% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.436 billion, 5.983 billion, and 6.483 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.04%, 10.05%, and 8.36% [4] - The PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 12, 11, and 10 times, respectively [4] Market Position - The company's fresh milk business outperformed the industry, with the "Daily Fresh" brand maintaining its leading position in the high-end fresh milk market [4] - The company's organic series achieved double-digit growth, and the white milk product structure continued to upgrade [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25, compared to the current price of HKD 17.08 [1][3][11]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 98.624 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.51%. Operating profit was HKD 6.171 billion, up 13.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.31% to HKD 4.809 billion [1][11]. - The second half of 2023 saw revenue of HKD 47.506 billion, a 5.87% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 15.28% to HKD 1.789 billion [1][11]. - The company focuses on quality growth, with a target of mid-single-digit revenue growth for 2024 and an operating profit margin (OPM) increase of 30-50 basis points [1][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was HKD 98,624 million, with a projected growth rate of 6.5% for 2024 [1][11]. - Net profit for 2023 was HKD 4,809 million, with an expected growth of 13.5% in 2024 [1][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at HKD 1.39 for 2024, with a PE ratio of 11 times [1][11]. - The company’s total assets were HKD 115.220 billion in 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 56% [4][11].

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 业绩表现稳健，总裁实现交接 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年3月28日 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2023年业绩公告。2023年，公司实现营收人民币986.24 [蒙Ta牛bl乳e_业Sto(c2k3A1n9dR.aHnKk)] 亿元，同比+6.5%，实现归母净利润48.09亿元，同比-9.31%。其中，23H2 公司实现营收 475.05 亿元，同比+5.9%；实现归母净利润 17.89 亿元，同 投资评级 比+15.3%。 上次评级 [马Ta铮b le _ A u t食ho品r]饮 料行业首席分析师 点评： 执业编号：S1500520110001 联系电话：13392190215 ➢ 全年收入表现平稳，细分品类呈现分化。尽管行业增速有所放缓，公司 邮 箱：mazheng@cindasc.com 全年收入同比+6.5%（包含妙可蓝多并表）。分品类看，液态奶产品表现 出色，营收同比+4.9%；冰淇淋受东南亚市场增长拉动，营收同比 +6.6%；奶粉业务受市场整体影响，营收同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with the target price currently under review [1][3][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue and net profit growth of 5.9% and 15.3% year-on-year for 2H23, respectively. Excluding the impact of the merger with Miaokelando, the comparable revenue growth for the year was 2.9% [1]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased from 30% to 40%, indicating a positive outlook on cash flow and profitability [1]. - The company aims for revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits for 2024, with an operational profit margin improvement target of 30-50 basis points [1]. - Despite a slowdown in industry growth, the company is focusing on high-quality development and optimizing its product mix, particularly in high-end liquid milk and cheese segments [1]. Financial Summary - For FY23E, the company expects sales revenue of RMB 99,315 million, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%. The net profit is projected to be RMB 5,883.2 million, reflecting a 10.9% increase [2][9]. - The company anticipates a continued improvement in gross margin, with a forecasted gross profit of RMB 36,151 million for FY23E, translating to a gross margin of 36.4% [9][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY23E is estimated at RMB 1.49, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.8 [2][9]. Business Strategy - The company has identified that a price-for-volume strategy is not suitable for current development, emphasizing the importance of maintaining quality [1]. - The company plans to enhance its digital marketing and channel strategies to adapt to changing consumer behaviors, particularly in the cheese segment [1]. - The company is cautious about expanding overseas due to geopolitical risks, despite strong growth in its Southeast Asian ice cream business [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 98.624 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.3% to 4.809 billion yuan, slightly below expectations [3][4] - The company is undergoing a leadership transition with a veteran taking over as CEO, which is expected to lead to a stable transition and new development phase for the company [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 98.624 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.51%. The operating profit margin (OPM) increased by 0.4 percentage points to 6.26% [3] - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 1.85 percentage points to 37.15% in 2023, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.85 percentage points to 4.88% [3] - Capital expenditures decreased by 17.8% to 4.17 billion yuan, and the dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 30% to 40% [3] Product Performance Summary - The company experienced a product structure upgrade, with liquid milk and ice cream showing better performance than the industry average. Liquid milk revenue grew by 4.86% year-on-year [3] - The company expects the revenue growth of its premium products to continue, with low-temperature products performing better than the industry average [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 101.1 billion yuan, 105.6 billion yuan, and 110.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 4%, and 5% respectively [4] - The net profit forecast for the same period has been revised to 5.6 billion yuan, 6.1 billion yuan, and 6.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 9%, and 8% respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mengniu Dairy is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 21.50, indicating a potential upside of 25.9% from the current price of HKD 17.08 [1][10]. Core Insights - Despite facing market headwinds, Mengniu Dairy has shown resilience with a 6.5% year-on-year sales growth in 2023, although net profit decreased by 9.3% to RMB 4.809 billion, falling short of consensus expectations by 14% [1][2]. - The company has experienced an increase in gross margin by 185 basis points to 37.2% due to lower raw milk costs, which also contributed to a slight increase in operating profit margin [1][2]. - The guidance for 2024 is disappointing, with expected sales growth in the low to mid-single digits, which is below previous expectations of 7.5% [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 98.624 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [3][11]. - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 4.809 billion, reflecting a decrease of 9.1% compared to the previous year [3][11]. - The company anticipates a slight expansion in operating profit margin by 30-50 basis points for 2024, while gross margin is expected to improve due to declining raw milk prices [2][11]. Segment Performance - The liquid milk segment, particularly high-end products like "Telunsu" and low-temperature yogurt, has shown strong performance, while ice cream and milk powder segments have faced challenges [1][6]. - Sales growth by category in 2023: liquid milk +5%, ice cream +7%, milk powder -2%, cheese +230% (excluding "Miaokelando" which saw a decline of 68%), and other products -32% [1][6]. - The high-end product trend continues, with fresh milk sales increasing by 16% year-on-year for premium offerings [1][6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 103.644 billion, with expected growth of 5.1% [3][11]. - The forecast for net profit in 2024 is RMB 5.482 billion, indicating a recovery with a growth rate of 14% [3][11]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 40% [1][2].

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (OTCPK:CIADF) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call March 26, 2024 9:30 PM ET Company Participants Lu Minfang - Vice Chairman and Executive Director Gao Fei - CEO and Executive Director Zhang Ping - CFO Li Pengchen - VP, Group Affairs Head Conference Call Participants Xiaopo Wei - Citi Chen Luo - Bank of America Lillian Lou - Morgan Stanley Unidentified Company Representative Investors, analysts, reporters, good morning. The 2023 Annual Results Announcement of China Mengniu be ...