Group 1 - The global precious metals market is experiencing increased volatility as the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) begins its annual weight rebalancing, which will last until January 15, 2026 [1][2] - The overall target weight for precious metals in BCOM will be adjusted to 18.84%, with gold's target weight increasing from 14.29% to 14.90%, while silver's target weight will decrease from 4.49% to 3.94% [2] - This adjustment is expected to create significant selling pressure, particularly on silver, which may face over $6 billion in passive selling pressure, accounting for approximately 10% of silver futures open interest [2][3] Group 2 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised the margin requirements for precious metals futures, indicating an increase in perceived market volatility risk [4][5] - The margin increase varies by contract, with silver contracts seeing the largest increase of up to 40%, while gold and platinum contracts have increased by around 20% [6] - This move is aimed at curbing speculative trading and may lead to short-term price fluctuations in precious metals [5][6] Group 3 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report is set to be released on January 9, 2026, with expectations of an increase of 60,000 jobs, down from a previous value of 64,000 [7] - Analysts suggest that if the non-farm data falls short of expectations, it could lead to increased rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, while potentially pushing gold and silver prices to new highs [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nasdaq and CME have announced a deepened collaboration to reintroduce the Nasdaq Crypto™ Index as the Nasdaq CME Crypto™ Index, aimed at serving as a benchmark for regulated crypto investment products such as ETFs, structured products, and actively managed funds [1] Group 1 - The new index will be overseen by a joint governance committee and calculated by CF Benchmarks [1] - The initiative aims to promote the indexation and institutional allocation of crypto assets [1]

Group 1 - The global precious metals market is experiencing increased volatility as the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) begins its annual weight rebalancing, which will last until January 15, 2026 [1][2] - The overall target weight for precious metals in BCOM will be adjusted to 18.84%, with gold's target weight increasing from 14.29% to 14.90% and silver's decreasing from 4.49% to 3.94% [2] - This adjustment is expected to create significant selling pressure, particularly on silver, which may face over $6 billion in passive selling pressure, representing about 10% of silver futures open interest [2][3] Group 2 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised the margin requirements for precious metals futures, indicating an increase in perceived market volatility risk [4][5] - The margin increase varies by contract, with silver contracts seeing the largest increase of up to 40%, while gold and platinum margins are raised by around 20% [6] - This move is aimed at curbing speculative trading and may lead to short-term price fluctuations in precious metals [5][6] Group 3 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data is set to be released on January 9, 2026, with expectations of an increase of 60,000 jobs, down from a previous value of 64,000 [7] - Analysts suggest that if the non-farm data falls short of expectations, it could lead to increased rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, while potentially pushing gold and silver prices to new highs [7]

Gold Market - The recent adjustment in gold prices has allowed them to recover previous losses, despite the CME raising margin requirements for precious metals for the third time in a month, which is interpreted as a necessary measure to maintain market order rather than an end to the bull market [2][8] - The increase in margin requirements indicates a significant shortage of precious metal inventories, which cannot meet the strong demand from investors and speculators, thus supporting the ongoing bull market [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are likely to continue rising, with a key support level at $4,440 [2] Oil Market - International oil prices are currently in a sideways trend, supported by heightened market tensions due to U.S. actions against Venezuela, but the long-term outlook remains troubled by oversupply [3] - A Goldman Sachs survey indicates that over 59% of institutional investors are bearish or slightly bearish on the oil market, marking the most pessimistic outlook in nearly a decade [3] - The IEA reports that global oil supply is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2026, leading to a projected surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day, equivalent to 4% of global demand [3] Dollar Index - The dollar index has recently reversed its downward trend, gaining over 1.3% since late December, but this upward momentum may not be sustainable due to anticipated significant interest rate cuts following the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman [4][5] - The new Fed chairman is expected to support President Trump's push for lower interest rates, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasizing the need for the Fed to stimulate investment [5] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown signs of support from moving averages, with a potential for new highs as it forms a bullish continuation pattern [6] Copper Market - Copper prices have returned to the moving average system, indicating that the adjustment in divergence may be complete, with an upward trend likely to continue [7]

Group 1 - President Trump has ordered the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, aimed at reducing housing costs ahead of the midterm elections [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate is projected to decrease to 3.4% by the fourth quarter of 2026, according to the Congressional Budget Office [3] - The unemployment claims in the U.S. rose to 208,000, slightly below market expectations, remaining in a historically low range [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan maintained its economic assessment across all nine regions, with many companies indicating a need for significant wage increases in 2026 [4] - The CME Group has raised margin requirements for precious metals futures for the third time in a month, effective January 9 [5] - A survey by Goldman Sachs revealed that geopolitical factors have led institutional investors to hold the most pessimistic outlook on oil in nearly a decade [5] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 270.03 points, closing at 49,266.11, a rise of 0.55% [6] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.57% to $4,487.90 per ounce, while silver futures fell by 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce [6] - The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose by 1.86 basis points to 3.488% [6]

Ernest HoffmanErnest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in ...

Core Insights - CME Group reported an all-time high international average daily volume (ADV) of 8.4 million contracts in 2025, representing an 8% increase from 2024, driven by significant growth in various asset classes [1][4] Group 1: Regional Performance - EMEA ADV reached a record 6.1 million contracts in 2025, up 6% from 2024, with notable increases in Equity Index (25%), Metals (23%), Agricultural (8%), Energy (7%), and Interest Rate products (1%) [2] - APAC ADV grew to an all-time high of 1.9 million contracts in 2025, up 13% from 2024, driven by record growth in Metals (66%), Energy (32%), Agricultural (14%), and Interest Rate products (8%) [3] - Canada ADV achieved a record 180,000 contracts in 2025, up 10% year on year, with records in Equity Index (23%), Interest Rate (6%), Agricultural (3%), and Energy products (1%) [3] - LatAm ADV remained unchanged at 173,000 contracts in 2025, with records in Foreign Exchange (42%), Metals (29%), and Equity Index products (7%) [4] Group 2: Global Performance - Globally, CME Group reported a record ADV of 28.1 million contracts in 2025, up 6% over 2024, primarily driven by record growth in Interest Rate ADV (4% to 14.2 million contracts) and Metals ADV (34%) [4] - Additional records were noted across Agricultural and Energy ADV, both increasing by 8% [4] Group 3: Company Overview - CME Group is recognized as the world's leading derivatives marketplace, providing clients with the ability to trade futures, options, cash, and OTC markets, while also offering tools for risk management and opportunity capture [5]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn, with Bitcoin surpassing $93,000 after falling below $87,000 at the end of 2025 [1][5] - Bitcoin is currently up 6.5% for the year, benefiting from a tech rally driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence stocks [5][6] Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin reached a three-week high of over $93,600, surpassing its 50-day moving average for the first time since the market turmoil began in October [4][11] - Despite a 6% decline in 2025, Bitcoin's potential remains strong, with expectations to exceed earlier highs this year [5][7] Investment Opportunities - A buy-the-dip strategy is recommended for investing in crypto-focused stocks before the next rally, with three stocks identified: NVIDIA Corporation, Robinhood Markets, and CME Group [3] NVIDIA Corporation - NVIDIA is a leading player in the semiconductor industry, with a strong correlation to the crypto market due to its GPUs' role in data centers and crypto mining [8] - The expected earnings growth rate for NVIDIA is 55.9%, with a 4.5% improvement in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [9] Robinhood Markets - Robinhood operates a financial services platform allowing users to trade cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin [12] - The expected earnings growth rate for Robinhood is 82.6%, with an 11.2% improvement in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [13] CME Group - CME Group offers options for cryptocurrency futures contracts, including Bitcoin and Ether, providing a platform for trading in the crypto market [14] - The expected earnings growth rate for CME Group is 8.5%, with a 0.3% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 90 days [14]

Core Insights - CME Group reported record trading activity in 2025 with average daily volume (ADV) reaching 28.1 million contracts, a 6% increase from the previous year, highlighting its central role in global risk management amid macro volatility and institutional participation [1] Trading Activity Overview - In the fourth quarter, ADV climbed to a record 27.4 million contracts, with December ADV reaching 23.5 million, marking the strongest December on record, driven by heightened demand for hedging tools due to shifting rate expectations and commodity price volatility [2] Interest Rates and Equities - Interest rate products were the backbone of CME's activity, with full-year interest rate ADV rising 4% to a record 14.2 million contracts, driven by heavy trading in U.S. Treasury futures and options, as well as SOFR-linked products [3] - U.S. Treasury futures and options posted a record annual ADV of 8.3 million contracts, while SOFR futures and options reached 5.4 million, indicating traders' positioning around Federal Reserve policy [3] Equity Index Derivatives - Equity index derivatives saw strong demand, with ADV across equity index products increasing 8% year-on-year to 7.4 million contracts, significantly influenced by micro contracts [4] - Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 and Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures both posted record volumes, reflecting sustained retail and professional participation in smaller-sized contracts [4] Cryptocurrency Derivatives - Cryptocurrency derivatives experienced explosive growth, with CME reporting a 139% increase in crypto ADV in 2025 to a record 278,000 contracts, representing approximately $12 billion in notional value [5] - Micro Ether futures led the segment, followed by Micro Bitcoin futures, as traders favored capital-efficient instruments tied to digital assets [5] Fourth Quarter Performance in Crypto - The momentum in crypto trading continued into the fourth quarter, with crypto ADV reaching a quarterly record of 379,000 contracts, and December alone seeing 339,000 contracts traded, reflecting rising institutional engagement with regulated crypto markets [6] Global Participation - International trading activity reached new highs, with ADV outside the U.S. rising 8% to a record 8.4 million contracts, driven by strong participation from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa [7] - CME's markets benefited from global diversification of trading flows and increased cross-border demand for benchmark derivatives [7]

CME Group's (CME) cryptocurrency derivatives trading volume surged to record highs last year, with average daily volume jumping 139% year-over-year to 278,000 contracts even as the largest tokens fell. The volume equates to roughly $12 billion in daily notional value, according to data released by the company, and marks the crypto products' strongest annual performance since their debut in 2017. The exchange pointed to its micro-ether and micro-bitcoin futures contracts as record performers, with averag ...