Fundamental Analysis - The core point of the article highlights the recent volatility in the gold market, where spot gold prices experienced a dramatic drop from nearly $5600 to a low of $4401, a decline of nearly $1200, driven by margin increases from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and market reassessment of the Federal Reserve's future leadership [1][3] - The market's reaction is attributed to a subtle shift in policy expectations following President Trump's nomination of former Fed Governor Walsh, which raised concerns about potential tightening of liquidity, thereby diminishing gold's appeal as a hedge against monetary easing [3][4] - The CME's decision to raise margin requirements for precious metal futures exacerbated the sell-off, forcing many speculative long positions to liquidate, creating a vicious cycle of price declines [3] - The strengthening of the US dollar during this period made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, further suppressing demand and contributing to the outflow from gold ETFs [3] Market Outlook - The market is currently assessing Walsh's true policy stance, particularly whether he will lean towards dovish rate cuts or return to a hawkish approach, which could impact gold prices depending on his signals regarding financial conditions [4] - Recent data indicates a rebound in US manufacturing; however, uncertainty surrounding trade policies and the emergence of anti-US buyer sentiment suggest that the recovery may not be stable [4] - The partial government shutdown may delay the release of key employment data, increasing market information asymmetry, and the future attractiveness of gold will depend on whether the economy achieves a "soft landing" or faces further setbacks [4] - Until Walsh's policies are clarified and the macroeconomic landscape becomes clearer, market volatility is expected to remain high [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices tested the $4400 support level, indicating potential market stagnation following the sharp decline [5] - In the 1-4 hour timeframe, the market continues to show selling pressure, with prices failing to recover from the recent lows [5] - Current trading conditions suggest a range between $4550 and $5050, with a cautious approach recommended due to potential liquidity risks [6]

（来源：上观新闻） 全球在线金融交易平台CMC市场公司亚洲及中东地区负责人克里斯托弗·福布斯说，黄金价格急剧回落 是典型的剧烈上涨后回调行情，长期看涨趋势尚未改变。 国际黄金、白银期货价格2日继续震荡调整。美国纽约商品交易所4月黄金期货价格收于每盎司4653美 元，较前一交易日收盘价下跌1.95%；3月白银期货价格下跌1.94%，收于每盎司77美元。但在随后的隔 夜交易中，金银期货价格均明显反弹，一度分别涨超4%和9%。 芝加哥商业交易所集团1月30日宣布上调金属期货保证金，将纽约商品交易所黄金期货保证金从6%提高 至8%，白银期货保证金从11%提高至15%。新规于2月2日收盘后生效。保证金上调通常对相关合约不 利，因为更高的资本支出会抑制投机参与、降低流动性，并迫使交易者平仓。 1月30日，4月黄金期货价格下跌超10%，3月白银期货价格下跌超30%。美国总统特朗普当日宣布提名 美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。市场对美联储未来货币政策"鹰派"预期浓 厚，刺激美元显著走强和贵金属价格大幅回调。 原标题：《芝商所上调保证金，金银期货价格震荡》 栏目主编：戴慧菁 文字编辑：宋慧 题图来源：上观题 ...

CME上调金银铂钯期货保证金比例。 【白银期货最新行情】 | 2月2日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 24832 | -17.00% | 674117 | 252527 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，并称要求沃什降息不合适，降息无需白宫施压，沃什有望 获民主党人支持，并预期其将推动降息；白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特：白宫有信心沃什提名会迅速获得 确认。货币市场押注美联储今年将累计降息超过两次、每次25个基点。 特朗普认为即将就古巴达成一项协议，且指出格陵兰岛谈判已展开，认为协议已基本达成。 美国民主党参议员沃伦：在特朗普停止美联储调查之前，任何共和党人都不应同意推进沃什的提名。 美联储博斯蒂克：美联储现在无需降息，我们应该在利率问题上更加耐心；沃勒：当前利率区间为 3.50%-3.75%，而中性利率可能在3%左右；穆萨莱姆：进一步降息并不可取，当前政策已属中性，经济 无需刺激。 【机构观点】 银价高位资金离场，恐慌情绪蔓延，直线下挫，白 ...

当地时间1月30日，芝商所集团(CME Group)宣布上调旗下贵金属品种的交易保证金要求。公告称，将 于2月2日收盘后全面上调黄金、白银、铂、钯等贵金属期货的履约保证金(名义价值百分比)。这是CME Group内第2次上调白银、铂、钯期货的保证金。 据期货日报记者了解，此次调整幅度显著：黄金期货非高风险账户保证金比例从6%上调至8%，高风险 账户从6.6%上调至8.8%；白银期货非高风险账户从11%上调至15%，高风险账户从12.1%上调至16.5%； 铂、钯期货保证金也同步提高。 提高交易门槛给市场"降温" 在业内人士看来，CME Group近期密集出台风控措施，与贵金属价格剧烈波动直接相关。1月下旬，国 际金价一度突破5500美元/盎司，创历史新高。国际银价也一度飙升至121美元/盎司，年度涨幅近60%。 然而，1月30日，国际银价暴跌近31%，国际金价也出现了15%的跌幅，创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。 对此，中国(香港)金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英表示，金属价格极端波动的背后是大量资金涌入引 发的交易拥挤。仅2026年1月，亚洲黄金ETF规模就增长了70亿美元，国内黄金、白银相关的ETF流入 资金超1 ...

本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 芝商所集团宣布上调纽约商品交易所黄金、白银及其他贵金属期货合约的保证金要求，调整将于下周一 收盘后正式生效。 此前1月中旬，芝商所已完成保证金计算机制调整，将黄金、白银、铂金和钯金合约的保证金从固定金 额制改为按合约名义价值比例动态浮动，此次上调是近期风控升级动作的延续。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 根据芝商所披露的最新安排，黄金期货非高风险账户保证金比例从当前合约价值的6%上调至8%，高风 险账户从6.6%上调至8.8%；白银期货非高风险账户保证金比例从11%上调至15%，高风险账户从12.1% 上调至16.5%。此外，铂金和钯金期货的保证金要求同步提高。 芝商所表示，此次调整是在对市场波动性进行例行评估后作出的决定，旨在确保足够的抵押品覆盖率。 近期贵金属市场出现罕见剧烈震荡，黄金、白银价格经历快速冲高后出现历史级急跌，波动率显著攀 升。 ...

芝商所集团提高对纽约商品交易所 黄金和 白银期货的保证金要求，此前这两个期货品种的价格遭遇了 数十年来的最大跌幅。该交易所当地时间周五在一份声明中表示，对于非高风险级账户，黄金的保证金 比例将从目前的6%提高到8%。该交易所表示，高风险级账户保证金比例将从目前的6.6%提高到8.8%。 根据这份声明，对于非高风险级账户，白银的保证金比例将从目前的11%上调至15%，而高风险级账户 的白银保证金比例将从目前的12.1%上调至16.5%。铂金和钯金期货合约的保证金也将提高。芝商所表 示，此次调整从周一收盘起生效，是"照常评估市场波动以确保抵押品覆盖充分"的结果。（智通财经） ...

对于此次贵金属价格急跌的原因，Enrich Money首席执行官Ponmudi R分析称："主要导火索是美国总统 特朗普提名凯文.沃什出任下一任美联储主席。沃什曾以鹰派通胀立场和强调美联储独立性著称，其提 名引发市场迅速进行宏观重定价：美元走强、实际收益率上升，而此前作为过度对冲工具的黄金和白银 杠杆头寸被快速平仓。这导致市场出现猛烈抛售，市值蒸发数十亿美元，在典型的狂热转向衰竭阶段清 退了弱势持仓者。但这并非意味着结构性熊市反转的开始。" 保证金比例上调意味着，投资者交易黄金、白银、铂、钯期货时，需缴纳更多保证金作为履约担保。尽 管芝商所向来会在期货合约价格暴涨、暴跌或波动剧烈时例行上调保证金，但本次周五的调整，或进一 步令资金实力不足、无法补足保证金的中小投资者被迫退出市场。 SEBI注册大宗商品专家Anuj Gupta表示："在提高铜交易保证金后，CME又上调了黄金和白银的保证金 要求。此举预计将持续对贵金属价格构成压力。" 在黄金和白银期货价格创下数十年来最大跌幅后，芝加哥商品交易所(CME.US)宣布上调其旗下纽约商 品交易所(COMEX)相关合约的交易保证金。 芝商所周五发布声明称，针对非高风险账 ...

在黄金和白银价格出现数十年来最大单日跌幅之后，交易所的风控之手迅速落下。 本周五，芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group）宣布，将上调Comex黄金、白银及其他贵金属期货合约的保证金要求。 CME在声明中表示，此次调整基于对市场波动性的"正常审查"，旨在确保足够的抵押品覆盖率，并将于下周一（2月2日）收盘后正式生效。 此外，铂金和钯金期货的保证金要求也同步提高。 这意味着，参与贵金属期货交易的投资者，需要投入更多现金或等价资产，才能维持相同规模的头寸。 非高风险账户：保证金比例从当前合约价值的6%上调至8% 高风险账户：从当前合约价值的6.6%上调至8.8% 非高风险账户：从11%上调至15% 高风险账户：从12.1%上调至16.5% | CC | Rate Type | Description | Change | ISO | Current | Current | New Initial | New | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | Initial | Maintenance | | Mainten ...

Core Insights - CME Group (CME) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.75 per share, a 9.1% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $1.63 billion, reflecting a 6.7% year-over-year increase [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.1% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between these revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Revenues- Other' to reach $111.34 million, a slight decrease of 0.1% from the previous year [5] - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees' are expected to be $1.32 billion, marking a 6.8% increase year-over-year [5] - 'Revenues- Market data and information services' are estimated at $203.62 million, reflecting a 12.1% increase from the prior year [6] - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees- Interest rates' are projected at $405.78 million, indicating a 1.2% decrease year-over-year [6] - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees- Foreign exchange' is expected to be $45.67 million, a decrease of 5.4% from the year-ago quarter [7] Average Daily Volume Estimates - The average daily volume (including NYMEX and COMEX) is projected to reach 27.49 million, up from 25.50 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Average daily volume - Metals (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is expected to be 1.30 million, compared to 673.00 thousand a year ago [8] - 'Average daily volume - Interest rates (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is estimated at 13.33 million, slightly up from 13.24 million year-over-year [8] - 'Average daily volume - Equity indexes (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is projected to reach 7.61 million, an increase from 6.34 million a year ago [9] - 'Average daily volume - Foreign exchange (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is expected to be 881.82 thousand, down from 969.00 thousand in the same quarter last year [9] - 'Average daily volume - Energy (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is forecasted at 2.56 million, compared to 2.52 million last year [10] - 'Average daily volume - Agricultural commodities (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is estimated at 1.81 million, up from 1.76 million year-over-year [10] Stock Performance - Over the past month, CME shares have returned +6.1%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.9% change [10]

芝商所（CME Group）将COMEX铜期货保证金上调20%，将COMEX 100盎司黄金期货初始保证金比例 从5%上调至6% 上述保证金调整将于2026年1月30日交易日收盘后生效。 （文华综合） ...