证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 沃什的政策可能落地一半 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 6 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 沃什的鹰派不宜解读成激进。今年年初以来，海外市场的重要变化是特朗 普提名沃什为美联储新主席。沃什反对大规模的资产负债表规模，被市场 贴上"鹰派缩表"的标签。但我们认为，沃什在缩表上并非激进派。首先， 沃什既是美国首 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The core point of the article highlights the recent volatility in the gold market, where spot gold prices experienced a dramatic drop from nearly $5600 to a low of $4401, a decline of nearly $1200, driven by margin increases from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and market reassessment of the Federal Reserve's future leadership [1][3] - The market's reaction is attributed to a subtle shift in policy expectations following President Trump's nomination of former Fed Governor Walsh, which raised concerns about potential tightening of liquidity, thereby diminishing gold's appeal as a hedge against monetary easing [3][4] - The CME's decision to raise margin requirements for precious metal futures exacerbated the sell-off, forcing many speculative long positions to liquidate, creating a vicious cycle of price declines [3] - The strengthening of the US dollar during this period made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, further suppressing demand and contributing to the outflow from gold ETFs [3] Market Outlook - The market is currently assessing Walsh's true policy stance, particularly whether he will lean towards dovish rate cuts or return to a hawkish approach, which could impact gold prices depending on his signals regarding financial conditions [4] - Recent data indicates a rebound in US manufacturing; however, uncertainty surrounding trade policies and the emergence of anti-US buyer sentiment suggest that the recovery may not be stable [4] - The partial government shutdown may delay the release of key employment data, increasing market information asymmetry, and the future attractiveness of gold will depend on whether the economy achieves a "soft landing" or faces further setbacks [4] - Until Walsh's policies are clarified and the macroeconomic landscape becomes clearer, market volatility is expected to remain high [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices tested the $4400 support level, indicating potential market stagnation following the sharp decline [5] - In the 1-4 hour timeframe, the market continues to show selling pressure, with prices failing to recover from the recent lows [5] - Current trading conditions suggest a range between $4550 and $5050, with a cautious approach recommended due to potential liquidity risks [6]

1月26日盘中，沪金期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1147.00元。截止发稿，沪金主力合约 报1138.70元，涨幅3.25%。 金瑞期货 后续贵金属可能仍偏强 华联期货 预计2026年上半年黄金仍保持乐观 金瑞期货：后续贵金属可能仍偏强 短期来看，特朗普最快将于本周公布美国新任美联储主席人选，可能会取代格陵兰岛事件成为市场新的 关注焦点，贝莱德高管里尔德成为下任美联储新主席的黑马人选，周末支持率一度超过前美联储理事沃 什，目前沃什预测概率仍然领先。另外，美国政府在1月底前再度关门的概率上升。中长期来看，央行 购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行， 后续贵金属可能仍偏强。 沪金期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 华联期货：预计2026年上半年黄金仍保持乐观 美国三季度GDP增长4.4%创两年新高！11月PCE通胀符合预期，美国经济保持韧性，通胀符合预期，利 于降息，利好黄金。美联储主席被起诉，折射出美国政治动荡和2026年降息预期更强，利好黄金，继续 关注非农就业数据和美联储降息预期变化。从12月美联储议息会议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%-3.75% and has initiated short-term Treasury purchases, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy in response to economic conditions [3][43]. Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with indicators showing a slight increase since the beginning of the year [4]. - The unemployment rate has edged up slightly as of September, reflecting a slowdown in job growth this year [4]. - Inflation remains elevated, with core PCE inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted down to 3.0% and 2.5%, respectively [8][9]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed will cease balance sheet reduction starting in December, with a plan to reinvest maturing securities into short-term U.S. Treasuries [4][43]. - The decision to lower rates and restart asset purchases is not equivalent to quantitative easing (QE) but is aimed at ensuring sufficient reserves in the banking system [44]. Future Projections - GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward to 1.7% and 2.3%, respectively, while the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize around 4.2% by 2027 [8][9]. - The dot plot indicates that the median forecast for rate changes remains unchanged, with expectations for one rate cut in both 2026 and 2027 [16][44]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the 2-year Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index declined, while the 10-year Treasury yield initially rose to 4.19% before settling at 4.16% [43][27]. - Stock markets showed volatility, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices experiencing fluctuations before closing higher [27][26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate target range from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut, totaling a 75 basis points reduction this year and 175 basis points since September of the previous year [1] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that a further rate cut of 25 basis points is expected next year, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts compared to this year [1] - The Fed's announcement included a plan to purchase $40 billion in short-term government bonds over the next 30 days, which, along with a slightly dovish tone from Chairman Powell, has led to a rebound in market risk appetite [1] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices rose to $4258.3 per ounce, reflecting a 0.52% increase, while domestic SHFE gold prices closed at 954.76 yuan per gram, down 0.12% [1] - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to support gold prices in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, bringing the policy rate to 3.5%-3.75%, amid increasing internal divisions and potential signals to pause future rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Market has nearly fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut for December, with a focus on the Fed's internal disagreements and future monetary policy expectations [1][2]. - The probability of a December rate cut fluctuated significantly, dropping below 30% after hawkish comments from Fed officials but rebounding due to weak employment data and dovish remarks [2][3]. - Analysts expect the Fed to signal a pause in rate cuts, emphasizing that rates are close to neutral levels [5][6]. Group 2: Internal Fed Dynamics - Among the 12 voting members of the FOMC, 5 have expressed opposition or skepticism towards further rate cuts, while 4 members support the cut [3][4]. - The decision hinges on the stance of three key leaders who have not yet made their positions clear, which could sway the vote towards a 7:5 majority in favor of the cut [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a reported decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.4% over three months [2][3]. - Inflation in the service sector is stabilizing, but wage growth continues to outpace productivity growth, potentially undermining economic momentum [3][6]. Group 4: Future Projections - The Fed is expected to adjust its economic forecasts, likely raising growth predictions while lowering inflation expectations, maintaining guidance for rate cuts in 2026-2027 [7][8]. - Economists predict that the Fed may cut rates again in June and July 2026, with a final rate target of 3.00%-3.25% [7][8]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The anticipation of rate cuts is expected to lead to increased market volatility, with the potential for the dollar index to rise if the Fed's stance is more hawkish than expected [9][10]. - The Fed's internal divisions may lead to unpredictable market reactions, as the focus shifts to the predictability of policy decisions rather than the policies themselves [11].

Market Overview - The US stock market showed a weak and fluctuating trend on December 8, with all three major indices experiencing slight declines: Dow Jones down 0.45%, Nasdaq down 0.14%, and S&P 500 down 0.35% [2] - Large technology stocks mostly declined, with the US Tech Giants Index falling by 0.28%. Notable declines included Tesla down over 3%, Google down over 2%, and Amazon down over 1% [4] Company Performance - Chinese concept stock Shodex Biotech surged over 102% after announcing that its obesity treatment candidate achieved an 11.3% weight reduction in a mid-stage clinical trial [6] - Among other Chinese concept stocks, Huya rose over 7%, while Daqo New Energy and Century Internet both increased by over 4%. Conversely, Legend Biotech fell over 7% and ZTO Express declined nearly 3% [5] Commodity Market - International silver prices have shown a downward adjustment, while international oil prices have also decreased. As of December 9, COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices fell by 0.56% and 0.21%, respectively. COMEX silver futures and London silver spot prices dropped by 1% and 0.3% [10] - NYMEX crude oil futures fell over 2%, dropping below the $60 per barrel mark, while ICE Brent crude futures decreased by nearly 2%, settling at $62.48 per barrel [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 9-10, with expectations leaning towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut. This meeting will also include the release of the economic forecast summary for 2025, which is anticipated to influence the Fed's policy path for 2026 [8] - Analysts suggest two possible scenarios for the Fed's December meeting: a dovish rate cut to support a weak labor market, which may signal a more significant economic slowdown, or a hawkish cut with strong guidance on future policy rates, potentially increasing market volatility [9]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a left-side phase, and a rebound is still awaited, although the current position is attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1] - The market anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, but a hawkish cut may limit the rebound potential of Hong Kong stocks [1] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to influence market sentiment; if the outcomes exceed expectations, a market rebound could occur [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is seen as having allocation significance, with AI technology leaders currently valued reasonably, which could lead to a notable rebound if new catalysts emerge [1] - The report warns of potential risks from the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on December 19, which could trigger carry trade unwinding and indirectly affect Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - In the U.S. stock market, the Nasdaq led gains with a 0.9% increase, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rose by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, amidst a backdrop of mixed macroeconomic fundamentals [2] - The services PMI in the U.S. rose to 52.6 in November, indicating the fastest expansion in nine months, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, below market expectations [2][3] - The report highlights a consensus for a cautious rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction in December, influenced by economic signals [3] - The report notes that the S&P 500 market breadth has improved to 61%, indicating a healthy upward trend driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience [5][22] Group 3 - The report indicates that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $33.793 billion, with the U.S. stock ETFs receiving the most significant inflow of $24.28 billion [6][34] - The technology sector saw the highest net inflow among industry categories, while the consumer staples sector experienced the most significant outflow [37] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. economy is expected to grow robustly due to macro policy easing, including interest rate cuts and regulatory relaxations, alongside increasing investments in artificial intelligence [5]

Group 1 - The international gold market is experiencing a strong performance despite facing pressure from the dollar index and previous market corrections, with a key resistance level at $4240 and support levels at the Bollinger Band middle line and the 30-day moving average [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in the Federal Reserve's policy rate during the upcoming decision on December 11, which could lead to short-term volatility in gold prices, depending on the subsequent dot plot and press conference statements [1] - Current spot gold is consolidating after breaking a symmetrical triangle pattern, with upward attempts facing resistance around $4260, while the overall upward trend remains intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities on dips [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold markets, including Shanghai gold and accumulated gold, are also in a state of consolidation, with no clear breakout or continuation trend observed, indicating a range-bound trading environment [2] - The anticipated trading range for Shanghai gold is between 952 and 972, while accumulated gold is expected to trade between 942 and 958, with effective high and low trading strategies recommended within these ranges until the Federal Reserve's decision [2]

Market Performance - US stock markets experienced an increase, with the Dow Jones rising over 100 points and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices gaining approximately 0.4% [1] - Chinese concept stocks surged over 1%, with Baidu seeing a significant increase of over 5% [1] Key Indices and Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 106.03 points, or 1.37%, reaching 7837.91 [2] - Notable stock performances included: - Baidu: +5.15% - Dada Group: +10.33% - Huya: +8.04% [3] Silver Prices - Spot silver prices surpassed $59, marking a new historical high [4] Economic Factors - Positive developments in US-China trade relations were highlighted, with discussions between Chinese and US officials aimed at enhancing cooperation and addressing mutual concerns [6] - US inflation data showed a core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index annual rate of 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%, indicating a favorable economic outlook [7][8] - The US consumer confidence index rose for the first time in five months, with the preliminary December figure increasing from 51 in November to 53.3, reflecting improved consumer sentiment [9]