Economic Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government is approaching a potential shutdown, which would halt data releases from the Labor and Commerce departments, including crucial jobs data scheduled for Friday [6][4] - The dollar index fell to 97.633, marking its lowest point since last Wednesday, as uncertainty surrounding the shutdown looms [6][4] - A mixed reading from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a marginal increase in job openings while hiring declined, reflecting a softening labor market [6][4] Currency Market Reactions - The euro remained stable at $1.1731 after reaching a high of $1.1762, while the dollar slightly increased to 148.15 yen following a three-day decline [6][4] - Analysts predict that the USD may continue to decline if political discussions suggest an extended government shutdown, with weak economic data further weighing on the currency [4][6] Bank of Japan's Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shown a more hawkish stance recently, with officials indicating an increasing need for policy tightening [5][6] - Traders currently estimate a 39% chance of a quarter-point rate increase in Japan on October 30, while a quarter-point cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as nearly certain at around 97% [7][6]

Core Insights - Mambu has successfully collaborated with ABN AMRO to launch BUUT, a neobank aimed at helping younger consumers manage their finances effectively [1] - BUUT is a full-service bank offering a range of financial tools through a single app, including a Dutch IBAN account, savings and budgeting tools, payments, and cards [1] - The neobank was developed and brought to market within 12 months, showcasing Mambu's composable platform capabilities [1] Company Overview - Mambu, founded in 2011, provides a SaaS cloud banking platform that enables various financial institutions to design and launch modern financial products quickly and flexibly [2] - The platform is modular and scalable, allowing it to grow alongside businesses [2] - Mambu serves over 260 customers across more than 65 countries, including notable clients such as Western Union, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, N26, BancoEstado, Raiffeisen Bank, ABN AMRO, and Bank Islam [2] Industry Implications - The partnership between Mambu and ABN AMRO illustrates how established banks can utilize cloud-native platforms to adapt to market demands and cater to the needs of Gen Z and Alpha consumers [1] - Mambu's technology supports the agility and scalability required for modern banking solutions, positioning it as a key player in the evolving financial services landscape [1]

Group 1 - Asia-Pacific markets exhibited mixed trading patterns, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rising by 0.43% [2] - South Korea's Kospi increased by 1.05%, while the small-cap Kosdaq rose by 0.82% [3] - Japan's Nikkei 225 declined by 0.68%, and the Topix fell by 1.27% after reaching a record high on the previous Friday [3] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain its cash rate at 3.6% during its upcoming two-day policy meeting [1] - Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted that the August CPI indicates "material upside risks to Q3 inflation," alongside a cyclical upswing in activity data [2] - Despite the inflation risks, there are signs of softer employment and moderating wage growth in Australia [2]

Market Overview - Oil prices experienced a decline after reaching seven-week highs, influenced by a surprise drop in US crude inventories and ongoing supply concerns from Iraq, Venezuela, and Russia [2][7] - Asian markets showed mixed performance, with MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan falling 0.2% after significant gains in the previous month and quarter [3][8] - Wall Street closed lower for the second consecutive session as investors took profits from record-high stocks, with futures indicating a 92% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October [4][8] Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures report and the final estimate for Q2 GDP, is anticipated to influence market sentiment amid concerns over a potential government shutdown [4][8] - Treasury yields remained stable, with the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield flat at 4.1408% after a slight increase [4][8] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar slipped 0.1% against the yen, while the yen hit an over one-year low against the euro and an all-time low against the Swiss franc [5][8] - Spot gold prices remained flat at $3,739 per ounce, while US crude and Brent oil prices fell slightly to $64.73 and $69.11 per barrel, respectively [6][8] - Brent oil futures are expected to find support in the $65-$70 per barrel range despite forecasts of oversupply in late 2025 and early 2026 [6][8]

资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 澳洲联邦银行（CBA）分析师称，到2026年第二季度，白银期货可能涨至46美元/盎司，甚至更高。风 险偏向上行，因美元面临下行风险，且白银的结构性避险需求走强。受避险需求和白银与美元的强烈反 向关系推动，银价处于14年高位。 ...

Investors interested in Banks - Foreign stocks are likely familiar with UBS (UBS) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia Sponsored ADR (CMWAY) . But which of these two stocks presents investors with the better value opportunity right now? Let's take a closer look.There are plenty of strategies for discovering value stocks, but we have found that pairing a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system produces the best returns. The Zacks Rank is a proven strategy tha ...

Core Viewpoint - ANZ Banking Group is a leading bank in Australia and New Zealand, with a significant focus on mortgages, personal loans, and credit, and its current share price is $33.31, raising questions about its valuation in the market [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance Metrics - ANZ's net interest margin (NIM) is crucial for its profitability, with the average NIM across major ASX banks at 1.78%, while ANZ's NIM stands at 1.57%, indicating a lower-than-average return from lending [5][6]. - The return on equity (ROE) for ANZ is 9.3%, slightly below the sector average of 9.35%, suggesting that for every $100 of shareholder equity, ANZ generates $9.30 in profit [7]. - ANZ earned 78% of its total income from lending last year, highlighting the importance of lending performance to its overall revenue [6]. Group 2: Capital and Risk Management - The common equity tier one (CET1) ratio for ANZ is 12.2%, which is above the sector average, indicating a strong capital buffer to protect against financial instability [8]. Group 3: Dividend Valuation - The total dividend for ANZ last year was $1.66, with projections for future growth rates between 2% and 4%, leading to an estimated average valuation of ANZ shares at $35.10 using a dividend discount model (DDM) [10][11]. - Adjusting for expected future dividends, the valuation increases to $35.74, compared to the current share price of $33.31, suggesting that the shares may appear expensive based on DDM analysis [11][12].

Currency Market Overview - Currency movements in early Asia were subdued following a volatile week influenced by rate decisions from the Fed, Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BOJ) [1] - The yen decreased by 0.16% to 148.22 per dollar, reversing some gains after a hawkish shift in BOJ rhetoric suggested a potential near-term rate hike [1] - The British pound fell to a two-week low of $1.3458, impacted by increased UK public borrowing and a forecast for the BoE's next rate cut pushed to 2026 [1][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The dollar continued its rebound from a previous decline, rising slightly to 97.75 against a basket of currencies [4] - Approximately 10 Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak this week, with market participants keenly observing their insights on the economy and Fed independence [5] - New Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who recently dissented in favor of a 50-basis-point rate cut, is expected to provide a detailed argument regarding Fed independence in an upcoming speech [6][9] Asian Market Developments - China maintained its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month in September, aligning with market expectations [7][9] - The offshore yuan remained stable, slightly increasing by 0.06% to 7.1151 per dollar following the rate decision [7][9]

Core Insights - National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) shares are currently priced around $44, raising questions about their true value and potential for dividend income [1] - The financial/banking industry, including NAB, is favored by Australian investors, particularly for its dividend offerings and the oligopolistic market structure [2][3] Valuation Models - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common valuation tool, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share, with NAB's current PE ratio at 19.4x, slightly above the sector average of 19x [4][6] - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for NAB, based on its earnings per share and the average PE ratio, results in a valuation of $43.83 [6] - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on past and forecasted dividends [7][8] DDM Valuation Results - Using a DDM approach, NAB shares are valued at $35.74 with a blended growth and risk rate, and $36.16 with an adjusted dividend payment [11] - When considering fully franked dividends, the valuation increases to $51.66 based on a forecast gross dividend payment of $2.44 [12] Growth and Risk Considerations - Various growth and risk rate scenarios yield a range of valuations, indicating the sensitivity of share price to these assumptions [13] - Investors are encouraged to assess NAB's growth strategy, economic indicators, and management team before making investment decisions [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation methods for Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) shares, focusing on the price-earnings ratio (P/E) and the dividend discount model (DDM) as tools for assessing the bank's share price relative to its earnings and dividends. Valuation Methods - The P/E ratio compares a company's share price to its earnings per share, with a current CBA P/E ratio of 29.5x compared to the banking sector average of 19x, suggesting that CBA shares may be overvalued [5][8] - Analysts can use the principle of mean reversion to estimate a sector-adjusted PE valuation for CBA, resulting in a valuation of $108.93 based on its earnings per share [7][8] Dividend Valuation - The DDM forecasts future dividends instead of profits, with the last year's dividend of $4.65 assumed to grow at a rate of 2% to 4% [10][11] - Using a risk rate between 6% and 11%, the DDM yields a valuation range for CBA shares from $52.89 to $119.00, depending on growth assumptions [12][15] - Adjusting for gross dividends, including franking credits, results in a valuation of $143.80 based on a forecast gross dividend payment of $6.80 [14] Investment Appeal - CBA and other Australian banks are popular due to their reliable dividend history and franking credits, making them attractive for dividend investors [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of using multiple valuation methods and assumptions to account for uncertainty in share price valuations [11][15]