Investors interested in stocks from the Cosmetics sector have probably already heard of Coty (COTY) and Estee Lauder (EL) . But which of these two stocks offers value investors a better bang for their buck right now? We'll need to take a closer look. Everyone has their own methods for finding great value opportunities, but our model includes pairing an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system with a strong Zacks Rank. The proven Zacks Rank emphasizes companies with positive estimate ...

Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks. Looking at the history of these trends, perhaps none is more beloved than value investing. This strategy simply looks to identify companies that are being undervalued by the broader market. Value investors use fundamental analysis and traditional v ...

Core Insights - The beauty industry is experiencing a resurgence in the fragrance sector, with major brands and local companies expanding their offerings [2][3] - Interparfums has signed a fragrance licensing agreement with Longchamp, with the first fragrance expected to launch in 2027 [2] - The market is witnessing a trend of cross-industry brands entering the fragrance space, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards emotional and everyday use of fragrances [8][10] Industry Developments - Interparfums is set to fully manage the Longchamp fragrance line, which will include the creation, development, production, and sales of the brand's perfumes [2] - Coty has launched a new mass-market fragrance brand, Origen, targeting the U.S. market with a focus on storytelling through scents [5] - TSG Consumer has acquired the independent fragrance brand Phlur, which emphasizes emotional resonance and affordability [7] Market Trends - The global fragrance market is projected to grow steadily, with estimates suggesting it will exceed $79.3 billion by 2027, driven by the demand for self-care and emotional healing [8][9] - The fragrance market is expanding at a compound annual growth rate of over 3%, with the Chinese market showing significant growth potential despite low penetration rates [9] - Fragrances are increasingly seen as everyday emotional consumption items rather than luxury goods, with younger consumers seeking emotional connections through scent [9][10] Financial Performance - Puig's latest half-year report indicates that its fragrance and fashion division generated €1.685 billion in revenue, accounting for over 70% of total revenue, with an 8.6% year-on-year growth [8] - The fragrance industry boasts a gross margin of approximately 70%, with low raw material costs and high product turnover rates contributing to its profitability [9]

Industry Overview - The beauty and cosmetics industry has evolved into a multi-billion-dollar global market, driven by innovation, cultural trends, and changing consumer values [2] - Skincare has become a dominant trend, with consumers prioritizing healthy skin over cosmetic coverage, leading to a surge in products featuring natural ingredients and dermatologist-recommended solutions [3][4] - Sustainability is increasingly important, with a focus on ethically sourced ingredients, sustainable packaging, and transparent business practices [5] Company Insights - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is making strides in sustainability through initiatives like reducing plastic usage and improving recyclability in its skincare and personal care lines [6] - Unilever PLC (UL) is integrating advanced technologies into its skincare brands, focusing on dermocosmetics that combine pharmaceutical research with skincare [8] - The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is undergoing a transformation with its "Beauty Reimagined" initiative, emphasizing digital agility and consumer-centricity [10] - Coty Inc. is redefining its position in the beauty landscape through innovation and digital acceleration, with a strong focus on prestige fragrances [15][16] - Ulta Beauty is enhancing its customer experience through digital innovation and a loyalty ecosystem, with over 45 million active rewards members [20][22] Technological Advancements - Technology is reshaping the beauty industry, with AI-powered diagnostics and augmented reality enhancing the shopping experience [7] - The Estee Lauder Companies is leveraging AI for demand forecasting and product development, partnering with Adobe and Microsoft for further innovation [13][14] - Ulta Beauty is utilizing mobile-first innovations and AI tools for personalized beauty experiences, enhancing its omnichannel strategy [21][22] Market Trends - The rise of K-beauty and J-beauty influences consumer preferences, leading to increased investment in hydration-focused and sun protection products [4] - Coty's online sales now contribute nearly 20% to total revenues, supported by partnerships with platforms like Amazon and TikTok Shop [17] - Ulta Beauty is seeing growth across multiple categories, particularly in fragrance and skincare, while also expanding its wellness offerings [19]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of earnings estimates and revisions in identifying winning stocks, while also considering various investment strategies such as value, growth, and momentum [1] - Value investing is highlighted as a popular and successful strategy across different market environments, utilizing traditional valuation metrics [2] - Zacks has created the Style Scores system to identify stocks with specific traits, particularly focusing on those with high grades in the "Value" category [3] Group 2 - Coty (COTY) is identified as a stock to watch, currently holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A, with a Forward P/E ratio of 9.95 compared to the industry's average of 27.69 [4] - The P/S ratio is also mentioned as a preferred metric for value investors, with Coty having a P/S ratio of 0.72 against the industry's average of 1.25 [5] - The data suggests that Coty is likely undervalued, and its strong earnings outlook positions it as one of the market's strongest value stocks [6]

Group 1 - Coty Inc. has been facing significant challenges in the market, particularly in the beauty and self-care product sectors [1] - The company specializes in fragrances, cosmetics, and other beauty products, indicating a diverse product portfolio [1] Group 2 - The investment service mentioned focuses on cash flow and companies that generate it, highlighting the importance of financial health in investment decisions [2] - Subscribers to the service gain access to a stock model account and in-depth cash flow analyses, which can aid in identifying potential investment opportunities [2]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Cosmetics industry is experiencing a challenging macroeconomic environment, with rising external pressures dampening consumer demand and overall sector performance [1][4] - Weak sales trends are exacerbated by increasing production and operational costs, which are straining profitability and efficiency [1][4] Key Trends - The industry is facing challenges from ongoing trade tensions, reduced consumer spending, and inconsistent retail restocking cycles, leading to a shift in consumer behavior towards essential purchases [4] - Rising operational costs due to higher prices for packaging materials, ingredients, logistics, and promotional activities are putting pressure on profit margins [4] - International risk factors, including unfavorable foreign currency fluctuations and geopolitical tensions, are affecting market access and operational continuity [5] Innovation and Digital Transformation - Industry leaders like The Estee Lauder Companies, Coty, and European Wax Center are investing in digital transformation, product innovation, and omnichannel engagement to navigate the current challenges [2][6] - There is a growing consumer interest in organic and clean beauty products, prompting companies to innovate and expand their product portfolios through strategic acquisitions and partnerships [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Cosmetics industry ranks 165, placing it in the bottom 32% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating dull near-term prospects [7][8] - The industry has underperformed the S&P 500 and the broader Zacks Consumer Staples sector, declining 39.6% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's growth of 9.4% [10] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.69X, higher than the S&P 500's 21.71X and the sector's 17.4X [13] Company Highlights - **European Wax Center (EWCZ)**: Holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), focusing on long-term growth through franchise partnerships and operational efficiency. The consensus EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is 61 cents, with shares gaining 8.3% in the past six months [15][16] - **The Estee Lauder Companies (EL)**: Holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), focusing on profitability and growth through product innovation and digital channels. The consensus EPS estimate is $1.47, with shares gaining 5% in the past six months [19][20] - **Coty**: Also holds a Zacks Rank 3, leveraging brand equity and digital transformation to enhance performance. The consensus EPS estimate is 29 cents, with shares losing 31.5% in the past six months [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - A wave of brand sell-offs is sweeping through the beauty industry, driven by major companies facing performance pressures and a need to restructure their brand portfolios [2][3][6]. Group 1: Brand Sell-Offs - Coty is reportedly exploring the sale of several brands, including Gucci and Burberry, amidst market speculation [2]. - Kenvue, a spinoff from Johnson & Johnson, is also rumored to be considering the sale of its skin health and beauty division, with an estimated transaction value exceeding $500 million (approximately 3.59 billion RMB) [2]. - Natura & Co has been linked to ongoing rumors about selling Avon since last year, highlighting a broader trend of divestitures among beauty giants [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the sell-off rumors, Coty's stock surged by 13% in a single day, reaching a three-month high, indicating a positive market reaction to the restructuring news [3]. - The performance pressures faced by these companies are evident, with Coty's mass beauty segment reporting a 9% decline in net revenue to $470 million (approximately 3.4 billion RMB) in Q3 of fiscal 2025 [8]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The beauty industry is experiencing a significant contraction, with Kenvue's skin health and beauty division reporting a 7.3% year-over-year sales decline in Q1 2025, the largest drop among its business segments [6]. - The Chinese market is reshaping the competitive landscape, with domestic brands capturing a growing market share, accounting for 55.2% of total sales in 2024, up 2.9 percentage points year-over-year [11][24]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Major beauty companies are shifting from aggressive acquisition strategies to a focus on efficiency and value, as evidenced by their divestiture of underperforming brands [19][21]. - The trend reflects a broader industry consensus that emphasizes streamlining brand portfolios and concentrating on core assets to enhance competitiveness [19][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing sell-off trend is expected to continue as companies adapt to the compressed industry cycle and intensifying competition [26]. - The future of the beauty industry will likely revolve around establishing competitive advantages in areas such as cutting-edge biotechnology, unique ingredients, and robust consumer data operations [26].

Core Viewpoint - Coty Group is actively seeking buyers or considering a split sale of its high-end and mass beauty divisions, with negotiations still in early stages. The potential transaction may take the form of a split rather than a complete sale, with strategic partnerships or mergers being more likely than traditional acquisitions [4]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Coty Group reported net revenue of $1.2991 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6.24%, and a loss of $402 million. For the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, net revenue was $4.6405 billion, down 2.4%, with a loss of $280.9 million [5]. - The financial struggles indicate that the news of potential sales is not unfounded, as many international beauty brands are facing cash flow pressures, including Coty [5]. Brand Portfolio and Risks - Coty Group's high-end beauty division includes brands like Burberry, while its mass beauty division includes Covergirl, Max Factor, and Rimmel. The company faces risks of losing licensing rights for several brands, such as Miu Miu, which will end its contract with Coty in 2024 [4][6]. - The high-end beauty division generates over 60% of Coty's revenue, with Gucci being a significant contributor. However, the licensing agreement for Gucci is set to expire in 2028, and the parent company, Kering, has indicated intentions to reclaim the brand [6]. Strategic Adjustments - Experts suggest that losing Gucci will impact Coty's brand structure and performance in the high-end market. However, Coty is expected to make strategic adjustments to seek more competitive and promising brands to maintain its market position [7]. - Coty is also attempting to mitigate risks by launching its own fragrance brand, Infiniment Coty Paris, which is seen as a significant initiative to create a new era in fragrances and scents [7].

Core Viewpoint - Coty is exploring the possibility of splitting and selling its high-end and mass beauty divisions, which could lead to a merger and acquisition scale of hundreds of billions to trillions of yuan, potentially reshaping the global beauty industry [1][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 1904 in Paris, Coty has developed a strong brand portfolio, including luxury brands like GUCCI and Burberry, and has grown to be one of the top ten beauty companies globally [2][4]. - Coty operates over 50 fragrance and beauty brands, divided into high-end and mass segments, with high-end beauty generating 277 billion yuan and mass beauty generating 162 billion yuan in revenue for the fiscal year 2024 [1][4]. Financial Performance - Coty's revenue for fiscal year 2024 was 439 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% increase from the previous year, but the company has faced significant fluctuations in performance [9]. - The company reported a net revenue decline of 2% to 333.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, with a net loss of 22.2 billion yuan [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The global beauty industry is undergoing significant challenges, including market growth slowdown and increased competition from emerging DTC brands, particularly affecting mass beauty brands [4][12]. - Coty is facing difficulties in finding suitable buyers for its mass beauty division, especially in Asia, due to economic slowdowns and trade tensions with the U.S. [5][4]. Strategic Moves - Coty is in discussions with Interparfums regarding the sale of its high-end beauty business, particularly brands like Burberry and Hugo Boss, which have shown strong growth [4][10]. - The company has initiated a transformation plan aimed at streamlining operations and focusing on key business innovations, with an expected savings of nearly 36 billion yuan between fiscal years 2025 and 2027 [12]. Industry Trends - The beauty industry is witnessing a shift towards high-end and luxury products, with major players like Shiseido and Unilever restructuring to enhance operational efficiency [12][14]. - Coty’s historical capital-driven development and frequent ownership changes have influenced its current strategy to seek a sale [11][12].