当前，中国洗护发行业稳步增长，智研咨询数据显示，2019年-2024年市场规模从573亿元增至678亿元。随着新一 代消费力量崛起，国人对洗护需求的更替正催生出新的消费热点，洗护市场正向功效化、专业化、精细化等方向 升级。 从市场竞争格局来看，国际巨头宝洁、欧莱雅、联合利华目前仍主导中国洗护发市场，这些品牌凭借成熟的研发 体系、强大的渠道铺设能力及全球化品牌影响力，一度掌控超60%的市场份额，形成垄断格局。京东2025年Q3洗 护发品类销量TOP10中，外资品牌占7席，淘宝双11预售阶段高端洗护赛道外资份额超80%。欧莱雅（卡诗）、资 生堂、汉高等国际品牌，凭借"专业"认知与历史沉淀，在高端市场占据用户心智。宝洁（海飞丝、潘婷）、联合 利华（清扬、力士）则在大众市场维持基本盘。国货品牌则处于"分散突围"阶段，行业TOP10中，只有阿道夫和 滋源两大国货品牌挺近，留给国货品牌集中突围的空间还很大。 在消费升级与健康意识深化的双重驱动下，中国洗护市场正经历从"清洁+基础护理"向以"科学养护"为核心的精细 化转型的变革期。从市场生态来看，近两年国货品牌加速布局洗护赛道，形成了集体发力的热潮：国货美妆品 牌"珀莱雅（ ...

今天分享的是：2025年东方美谷中国化妆品行业趋势洞察蓝皮书 报告共计：40页 《2025东方美谷中国化妆品行业趋势洞察蓝皮书》全面分析全球及中国化妆品行业发展现状、消费需求变迁、东方美谷实践 及未来展望。全球市场方面，2025年规模预计突破6000亿美元，2030年达7200亿美元，新兴市场（拉美、中东等）、中产阶 级扩容及数字化（抖音+TikTok Shop美妆GMV同比增77%）为主要驱动力，竞争格局向多极演变，价值链重心转向上游原料 技术与线下体验。中国市场呈温和复苏态势，2025年前三季度限额以上单位化妆品零售额3288.2亿元（同比增3.9%），全年 预计突破4500亿元；线上渠道占比54.13%（销售额同比增12.34%），国货品牌崛起，2025年前9个月市场份额超56%，销售额 增速是外资品牌的2.46倍，珀莱雅等头部国货连续稳居天猫双11榜单前列。消费需求上，主力人群为25-35岁一二线女性，但 男性（占比35.74%，较2022年增超20%）、银发人群（45岁+占比提84%）需求显著增长；消费者趋向小额高频购买，决策更 重成分功效（51.63%关注）与性价比，从基础护肤转向成分功效驱动，复 ...

Group 1 - The global beauty market is expected to exceed $600 billion by 2025, driven by emerging markets, middle-class expansion, and digital e-commerce [1][12][14] - China's cosmetics market shows a moderate recovery, with retail sales reaching 328.82 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and is projected to surpass 450 billion yuan for the year [1][20][21] - The market structure is shifting from a unipolar to a multipolar competition, with the Asia-Pacific region becoming a core growth area and Latin America leading global growth [1][17][18] Group 2 - Consumer demand is evolving, with a significant increase in male consumers (over 20% year-on-year) and a rise in the elderly demographic (84% increase) [2][9] - The trend towards rational consumption is emerging, with nearly 80% of consumers focusing on product ingredients, and personalized skincare needs are becoming more prominent [2][37] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with local brands' sales increasing by 8.33% year-on-year, significantly outpacing foreign brands [2][35][36] Group 3 - The cosmetics industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality enhancement, with a focus on efficacy, scene segmentation, and cultural empowerment [3][20] - The integration of biotechnology, digital technology, and material science is expected to reshape the industry landscape [3][17] - Regulatory frameworks are becoming more refined, with a comprehensive approach to innovation and safety in cosmetics [42][43][44]

Core Insights - The 2025 Tmall "Double 11" pre-sale event commenced with impressive results, showcasing strong consumer engagement and market vitality [1][6] - In the first hour, 35 brands surpassed 100 million yuan in sales, and 1802 brands experienced year-on-year sales growth, indicating a significant increase in active users compared to the previous year [1][6] E-commerce Performance - Taobao Live emerged as a highlight during the pre-sale, with the number of users placing deposits showing double-digit growth and the number of live streams exceeding last year's figures [3][4] - Li Jiaqi's live stream was particularly notable, achieving remarkable sales figures and visitor growth of over 45%, reflecting strong consumer interest and a solid fan base in the beauty sector [4][5] Category Highlights - Key categories such as beauty, maternal and infant products, fashion, and food performed exceptionally well, with beauty products seeing growth of nearly 80% [5][6] - International and high-quality domestic beauty brands were prominently featured, catering to diverse consumer needs [5][6] Domestic Brand Performance - Domestic brands demonstrated strong market competitiveness, gaining widespread recognition and preference among consumers due to their high quality and cost-effectiveness [6] - The success of domestic brands during the Tmall "Double 11" pre-sale is expected to drive their future growth and enhance brand development [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese pet industry has undergone a significant transformation from being dominated by foreign brands to the rise of domestic brands, which has occurred in multiple phases [1][16] - Domestic brands have successfully captured market share by leveraging e-commerce and social media, enhancing consumer trust through transparency and product safety [1][10] Group 1: E-commerce and Social Media Impact - The rapid growth of e-commerce from 2010 to 2015 provided new brands with substantial traffic support and low marketing costs, enabling quick market entry and sales growth [3] - The first wave of domestic brand emergence included companies like Maifudi and Crazy Dog, which utilized e-commerce platforms to achieve significant sales, with Maifudi reaching sales of 30 million yuan on Singles' Day in 2017 [4][12] - The rise of social media platforms post-2018 created new growth opportunities for domestic brands, allowing them to engage directly with consumers and enhance brand visibility through user-generated content [5][6] Group 2: Building Trust and Safety - Social media has enabled domestic brands to communicate directly with consumers, showcasing product safety through transparency initiatives like ingredient sourcing and quality reports [8] - In 2020, domestic brands collectively increased their focus on product safety, enhancing consumer trust and improving the industry's overall image [9] - The Petcurean go! incident in 2021, which raised concerns about imported brands, allowed domestic brands to gain consumer trust by emphasizing their safety and value [10] Group 3: Market Penetration and Pricing Strategy - Domestic brands identified and filled the price gap left by high-end imported brands, offering high-quality products at lower price points, typically between 20-50 yuan/kg [11][12] - Brands like Crazy Dog and Maifudi successfully targeted price-sensitive consumers, significantly increasing their market share through competitive pricing strategies [12][11] Group 4: Product Innovation and Competitive Advantage - Traditional imported brands primarily relied on meat meal-based products, which became less appealing as consumer expectations for quality increased [13] - The entry of high-end foreign brands introduced premium concepts, but their high prices limited market reach, creating opportunities for domestic brands to offer competitively priced alternatives [14][15] - Domestic brands capitalized on the demand for upgraded products by launching high-quality, cost-effective options, utilizing advancements in local production capabilities to enhance their offerings [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) has seen a significant increase, with a rise of over 10% during trading, attributed to strong growth in domestic beauty brands and successful performance on platforms like Douyin [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Shangmei Co., Ltd. reported a stock price increase of 9.12%, reaching HKD 82.55, with a trading volume of HKD 152 million [1] - The brand Han Shu achieved a remarkable growth of 58% in July, while other brands like Proya and Marubi also showed substantial growth rates of 23% and 72% respectively [1] - The company's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) for Han Shu is projected to reach 6.749 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 102%, making it the top-ranked beauty brand on Douyin [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The domestic beauty brand market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with platforms like Douyin contributing to the growth of these brands [1] - The online self-operated channel revenue share for Shangmei Co., Ltd. is expected to rise from 39.6% in 2022 to 78.2% in 2024, indicating a shift towards online sales [1] - The company is also diversifying its e-commerce channels, with projected GMV growth rates for Han Shu during the Double Eleven shopping festival in 2024 of 57% on Tmall and 115% on JD.com [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower, with all three major indices falling over 1% during the day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.3% at 3363.9 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.19% to 13320.92 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.96% to 2587.86 points [1] - The total trading volume for both markets fell below 1 trillion yuan, reaching only 8718.2 billion yuan, with a slight net outflow of northbound funds [1] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as smart TVs, consumer electronics, digital currency, electricity, paper, glyphosate, steel, and transportation equipment showed relative resilience [1] - Sectors that experienced significant declines included agriculture, artificial meat, aviation, gold, agricultural planting, biodegradable plastics, and new materials [1] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate the domestic consumption of previously overseas goods, benefiting industries like duty-free shops and hotels [2] - The recovery of domestic tourism and related sectors is anticipated as overseas travel returns to the domestic market [2] - The rise of domestic brands is expected to continue, with e-commerce and innovation driving growth in market share for domestic cosmetics, snacks, and small appliances [2] Industry Recovery Signals - The civil aviation sector is expected to see gradual improvement in domestic passenger traffic as domestic demand recovers [3] - The worst impacts of the pandemic on the industry are believed to be over, leading to a recovery in market sentiment [3] - The cement industry is also projected to recover as demand is expected to rise in the second half of the year, following earlier constraints due to the pandemic and natural disasters [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the emergence of new consumer demands driven by generational changes, with the Z generation becoming the main consumer force, leading to a restructuring of the competitive landscape in the consumer goods sector [3][5][11] - The growth of domestic brands is emphasized, particularly in categories such as personal care, pet products, and home goods, where companies like Baiya Co., Ltd. and Dengkang Oral Care are gaining market share through innovative products and effective marketing strategies [5][19][24] - The report identifies significant opportunities in the AI-driven product categories, such as AI mattresses and AI glasses, which are expected to see high growth in the medium to long term [5][19][29] Group 2 - The housing market is projected to stabilize, with policies encouraging home upgrades and replacements, which will drive demand for home goods, particularly in the AI mattress segment [6][9] - The packaging industry is undergoing a global supply chain restructuring, leading to accelerated consolidation and improved profitability for leading companies [7][10] - The report notes that the export sector is expected to see a reduction in the impact of tariff policies, allowing for better growth prospects in overseas markets [10][19] Group 3 - The report discusses the rise of IP-derived products, particularly in the emotional consumption space, where younger consumers are increasingly drawn to products that fulfill social and emotional needs [34][37][43] - Companies like Bluku and Chengyuan Co., Ltd. are highlighted for their innovative approaches in the IP toy market, leveraging strong brand partnerships and diverse product offerings to capture market share [44][49][56] - The report emphasizes the importance of digital marketing and e-commerce strategies in driving sales for companies in the consumer goods sector, particularly in the context of changing consumer behaviors [50][52][61]

Core Viewpoint - A wave of brand sell-offs is sweeping through the beauty industry, driven by major companies facing performance pressures and a need to restructure their brand portfolios [2][3][6]. Group 1: Brand Sell-Offs - Coty is reportedly exploring the sale of several brands, including Gucci and Burberry, amidst market speculation [2]. - Kenvue, a spinoff from Johnson & Johnson, is also rumored to be considering the sale of its skin health and beauty division, with an estimated transaction value exceeding $500 million (approximately 3.59 billion RMB) [2]. - Natura & Co has been linked to ongoing rumors about selling Avon since last year, highlighting a broader trend of divestitures among beauty giants [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the sell-off rumors, Coty's stock surged by 13% in a single day, reaching a three-month high, indicating a positive market reaction to the restructuring news [3]. - The performance pressures faced by these companies are evident, with Coty's mass beauty segment reporting a 9% decline in net revenue to $470 million (approximately 3.4 billion RMB) in Q3 of fiscal 2025 [8]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The beauty industry is experiencing a significant contraction, with Kenvue's skin health and beauty division reporting a 7.3% year-over-year sales decline in Q1 2025, the largest drop among its business segments [6]. - The Chinese market is reshaping the competitive landscape, with domestic brands capturing a growing market share, accounting for 55.2% of total sales in 2024, up 2.9 percentage points year-over-year [11][24]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Major beauty companies are shifting from aggressive acquisition strategies to a focus on efficiency and value, as evidenced by their divestiture of underperforming brands [19][21]. - The trend reflects a broader industry consensus that emphasizes streamlining brand portfolios and concentrating on core assets to enhance competitiveness [19][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing sell-off trend is expected to continue as companies adapt to the compressed industry cycle and intensifying competition [26]. - The future of the beauty industry will likely revolve around establishing competitive advantages in areas such as cutting-edge biotechnology, unique ingredients, and robust consumer data operations [26].

Group 1 - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is becoming a focal point in the capital market, driven by trends in "trendy toys, tea drinks, and gold jewelry" [1] - Structural investment opportunities are emerging in the consumption sector after years of adjustment, supported by policy measures and the influx of southbound capital [1][2] - The current market is witnessing a valuation recovery and growth breakthrough in the new consumption sector, particularly among companies catering to Generation Z's consumption habits [1] Group 2 - Southbound capital has seen a net inflow of HKD 622.87 billion since 2025, with non-essential consumption leading the way [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the major consumption index is at 20 times, while new consumption stocks have significantly higher P/E ratios, such as 87.5 times for Pop Mart and 89.7 times for Lao Pu Gold [1] - The consumption sector's P/E ratio is at a near ten-year low, with institutional holdings at a bottom level, indicating that pessimistic expectations are already priced in [2] Group 3 - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a positive shift in earnings growth expected in 2025 [3] - Key drivers for this earnings recovery include low inventory levels triggering a replenishment cycle and a recovery in the real estate chain due to a rebound in the second-hand housing market [3] - The focus should be on sectors with high growth potential, such as AI-enabled manufacturing and the inventory cycle reversal, while also considering stable dividend-paying assets [3]