Core Insights - The 2025 Tmall "Double 11" pre-sale event commenced with impressive results, showcasing strong consumer engagement and market vitality [1][6] - In the first hour, 35 brands surpassed 100 million yuan in sales, and 1802 brands experienced year-on-year sales growth, indicating a significant increase in active users compared to the previous year [1][6] E-commerce Performance - Taobao Live emerged as a highlight during the pre-sale, with the number of users placing deposits showing double-digit growth and the number of live streams exceeding last year's figures [3][4] - Li Jiaqi's live stream was particularly notable, achieving remarkable sales figures and visitor growth of over 45%, reflecting strong consumer interest and a solid fan base in the beauty sector [4][5] Category Highlights - Key categories such as beauty, maternal and infant products, fashion, and food performed exceptionally well, with beauty products seeing growth of nearly 80% [5][6] - International and high-quality domestic beauty brands were prominently featured, catering to diverse consumer needs [5][6] Domestic Brand Performance - Domestic brands demonstrated strong market competitiveness, gaining widespread recognition and preference among consumers due to their high quality and cost-effectiveness [6] - The success of domestic brands during the Tmall "Double 11" pre-sale is expected to drive their future growth and enhance brand development [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese pet industry has undergone a significant transformation from being dominated by foreign brands to the rise of domestic brands, which has occurred in multiple phases [1][16] - Domestic brands have successfully captured market share by leveraging e-commerce and social media, enhancing consumer trust through transparency and product safety [1][10] Group 1: E-commerce and Social Media Impact - The rapid growth of e-commerce from 2010 to 2015 provided new brands with substantial traffic support and low marketing costs, enabling quick market entry and sales growth [3] - The first wave of domestic brand emergence included companies like Maifudi and Crazy Dog, which utilized e-commerce platforms to achieve significant sales, with Maifudi reaching sales of 30 million yuan on Singles' Day in 2017 [4][12] - The rise of social media platforms post-2018 created new growth opportunities for domestic brands, allowing them to engage directly with consumers and enhance brand visibility through user-generated content [5][6] Group 2: Building Trust and Safety - Social media has enabled domestic brands to communicate directly with consumers, showcasing product safety through transparency initiatives like ingredient sourcing and quality reports [8] - In 2020, domestic brands collectively increased their focus on product safety, enhancing consumer trust and improving the industry's overall image [9] - The Petcurean go! incident in 2021, which raised concerns about imported brands, allowed domestic brands to gain consumer trust by emphasizing their safety and value [10] Group 3: Market Penetration and Pricing Strategy - Domestic brands identified and filled the price gap left by high-end imported brands, offering high-quality products at lower price points, typically between 20-50 yuan/kg [11][12] - Brands like Crazy Dog and Maifudi successfully targeted price-sensitive consumers, significantly increasing their market share through competitive pricing strategies [12][11] Group 4: Product Innovation and Competitive Advantage - Traditional imported brands primarily relied on meat meal-based products, which became less appealing as consumer expectations for quality increased [13] - The entry of high-end foreign brands introduced premium concepts, but their high prices limited market reach, creating opportunities for domestic brands to offer competitively priced alternatives [14][15] - Domestic brands capitalized on the demand for upgraded products by launching high-quality, cost-effective options, utilizing advancements in local production capabilities to enhance their offerings [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) has seen a significant increase, with a rise of over 10% during trading, attributed to strong growth in domestic beauty brands and successful performance on platforms like Douyin [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Shangmei Co., Ltd. reported a stock price increase of 9.12%, reaching HKD 82.55, with a trading volume of HKD 152 million [1] - The brand Han Shu achieved a remarkable growth of 58% in July, while other brands like Proya and Marubi also showed substantial growth rates of 23% and 72% respectively [1] - The company's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) for Han Shu is projected to reach 6.749 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 102%, making it the top-ranked beauty brand on Douyin [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The domestic beauty brand market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with platforms like Douyin contributing to the growth of these brands [1] - The online self-operated channel revenue share for Shangmei Co., Ltd. is expected to rise from 39.6% in 2022 to 78.2% in 2024, indicating a shift towards online sales [1] - The company is also diversifying its e-commerce channels, with projected GMV growth rates for Han Shu during the Double Eleven shopping festival in 2024 of 57% on Tmall and 115% on JD.com [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower, with all three major indices falling over 1% during the day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.3% at 3363.9 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.19% to 13320.92 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.96% to 2587.86 points [1] - The total trading volume for both markets fell below 1 trillion yuan, reaching only 8718.2 billion yuan, with a slight net outflow of northbound funds [1] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as smart TVs, consumer electronics, digital currency, electricity, paper, glyphosate, steel, and transportation equipment showed relative resilience [1] - Sectors that experienced significant declines included agriculture, artificial meat, aviation, gold, agricultural planting, biodegradable plastics, and new materials [1] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate the domestic consumption of previously overseas goods, benefiting industries like duty-free shops and hotels [2] - The recovery of domestic tourism and related sectors is anticipated as overseas travel returns to the domestic market [2] - The rise of domestic brands is expected to continue, with e-commerce and innovation driving growth in market share for domestic cosmetics, snacks, and small appliances [2] Industry Recovery Signals - The civil aviation sector is expected to see gradual improvement in domestic passenger traffic as domestic demand recovers [3] - The worst impacts of the pandemic on the industry are believed to be over, leading to a recovery in market sentiment [3] - The cement industry is also projected to recover as demand is expected to rise in the second half of the year, following earlier constraints due to the pandemic and natural disasters [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the emergence of new consumer demands driven by generational changes, with the Z generation becoming the main consumer force, leading to a restructuring of the competitive landscape in the consumer goods sector [3][5][11] - The growth of domestic brands is emphasized, particularly in categories such as personal care, pet products, and home goods, where companies like Baiya Co., Ltd. and Dengkang Oral Care are gaining market share through innovative products and effective marketing strategies [5][19][24] - The report identifies significant opportunities in the AI-driven product categories, such as AI mattresses and AI glasses, which are expected to see high growth in the medium to long term [5][19][29] Group 2 - The housing market is projected to stabilize, with policies encouraging home upgrades and replacements, which will drive demand for home goods, particularly in the AI mattress segment [6][9] - The packaging industry is undergoing a global supply chain restructuring, leading to accelerated consolidation and improved profitability for leading companies [7][10] - The report notes that the export sector is expected to see a reduction in the impact of tariff policies, allowing for better growth prospects in overseas markets [10][19] Group 3 - The report discusses the rise of IP-derived products, particularly in the emotional consumption space, where younger consumers are increasingly drawn to products that fulfill social and emotional needs [34][37][43] - Companies like Bluku and Chengyuan Co., Ltd. are highlighted for their innovative approaches in the IP toy market, leveraging strong brand partnerships and diverse product offerings to capture market share [44][49][56] - The report emphasizes the importance of digital marketing and e-commerce strategies in driving sales for companies in the consumer goods sector, particularly in the context of changing consumer behaviors [50][52][61]

Core Viewpoint - A wave of brand sell-offs is sweeping through the beauty industry, driven by major companies facing performance pressures and a need to restructure their brand portfolios [2][3][6]. Group 1: Brand Sell-Offs - Coty is reportedly exploring the sale of several brands, including Gucci and Burberry, amidst market speculation [2]. - Kenvue, a spinoff from Johnson & Johnson, is also rumored to be considering the sale of its skin health and beauty division, with an estimated transaction value exceeding $500 million (approximately 3.59 billion RMB) [2]. - Natura & Co has been linked to ongoing rumors about selling Avon since last year, highlighting a broader trend of divestitures among beauty giants [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the sell-off rumors, Coty's stock surged by 13% in a single day, reaching a three-month high, indicating a positive market reaction to the restructuring news [3]. - The performance pressures faced by these companies are evident, with Coty's mass beauty segment reporting a 9% decline in net revenue to $470 million (approximately 3.4 billion RMB) in Q3 of fiscal 2025 [8]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The beauty industry is experiencing a significant contraction, with Kenvue's skin health and beauty division reporting a 7.3% year-over-year sales decline in Q1 2025, the largest drop among its business segments [6]. - The Chinese market is reshaping the competitive landscape, with domestic brands capturing a growing market share, accounting for 55.2% of total sales in 2024, up 2.9 percentage points year-over-year [11][24]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Major beauty companies are shifting from aggressive acquisition strategies to a focus on efficiency and value, as evidenced by their divestiture of underperforming brands [19][21]. - The trend reflects a broader industry consensus that emphasizes streamlining brand portfolios and concentrating on core assets to enhance competitiveness [19][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing sell-off trend is expected to continue as companies adapt to the compressed industry cycle and intensifying competition [26]. - The future of the beauty industry will likely revolve around establishing competitive advantages in areas such as cutting-edge biotechnology, unique ingredients, and robust consumer data operations [26].

Group 1 - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is becoming a focal point in the capital market, driven by trends in "trendy toys, tea drinks, and gold jewelry" [1] - Structural investment opportunities are emerging in the consumption sector after years of adjustment, supported by policy measures and the influx of southbound capital [1][2] - The current market is witnessing a valuation recovery and growth breakthrough in the new consumption sector, particularly among companies catering to Generation Z's consumption habits [1] Group 2 - Southbound capital has seen a net inflow of HKD 622.87 billion since 2025, with non-essential consumption leading the way [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the major consumption index is at 20 times, while new consumption stocks have significantly higher P/E ratios, such as 87.5 times for Pop Mart and 89.7 times for Lao Pu Gold [1] - The consumption sector's P/E ratio is at a near ten-year low, with institutional holdings at a bottom level, indicating that pessimistic expectations are already priced in [2] Group 3 - The A-share market is transitioning from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a positive shift in earnings growth expected in 2025 [3] - Key drivers for this earnings recovery include low inventory levels triggering a replenishment cycle and a recovery in the real estate chain due to a rebound in the second-hand housing market [3] - The focus should be on sectors with high growth potential, such as AI-enabled manufacturing and the inventory cycle reversal, while also considering stable dividend-paying assets [3]

Group 1 - The annual "618" shopping festival has begun, with over 13,000 brands achieving doubled sales in the first hour of Tmall's event [1][2] - The beauty and personal care sector has shown remarkable performance in the A-share market, driven by consumption recovery policies and the "618" promotion [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the beauty sector will see structural opportunities due to the "618" event, with a focus on high-quality companies in segments like gold jewelry, medical beauty, offline retail, and pet products [1][4] Group 2 - E-commerce platforms have started their "618" promotions earlier this year, extending the overall duration of the event [2] - Tmall reported that 43 brands achieved over 100 million yuan in sales within the first hour, a more than 50% increase compared to last year [2] - The beauty sector's GMV during the pre-sale period reached between 2.5 billion to 3.5 billion yuan, showing positive year-on-year growth [2] Group 3 - The "618" event has simplified consumer decision-making, enhancing the shopping experience and contributing significantly to brand revenues [3] - The beauty care sector has seen a 4.07% increase in stock prices over the last five trading days, leading among 31 sectors [3] - Analysts recommend focusing on high-growth segments such as gold jewelry, innovative offline retail, and differentiated medical beauty products for investment opportunities [4] Group 4 - The pet economy is gaining attention, with domestic brands benefiting from product innovation and refined marketing strategies [4] - The growth of the pet economy is supported by favorable trends in pet food exports, indicating a positive outlook for related businesses [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing impact of tariff shocks and suggests focusing on high-quality retail channels and differentiated consumer brands that cater to domestic demand [4][22] - The report highlights the transformation of traditional retail, with Yonghui Supermarket leading the way in adapting to a consumer-centric retail era [4][22] - The rise of domestic brands and the recovery of consumer demand are seen as inevitable trends, with recommendations to focus on quality retail channels and differentiated brands [4][22] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index rose by 2.88% during the week of April 7 to April 11, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 3.11% [6][13] - The supermarket sector showed the largest increase, with a weekly rise of 13.54% [14][17] - Notable individual stock performances included Guofang Group (+61.1%), Eurasia Group (+26.3%), and Nanning Department Store (+22.4%) [19][20] Industry Dynamics - Yonghui Supermarket has opened a "green channel" for domestic manufacturers affected by export restrictions, receiving over 100 cooperation requests from various sectors [4][22] - The report discusses the approval of a new collagen product by Jinbo Bio, which is expected to strengthen its leading position in the medical beauty sector [4][23] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include: - Traditional retail: Highlighting companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi that are adapting to consumer trends [7][27] - Gold and jewelry: Recommendations for brands like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji that possess differentiated product capabilities [7][28] - Cosmetics: Emphasizing domestic brands such as Maogeping and Shangmei that are expanding into high-potential segments [7][28] - Medical aesthetics: Focusing on companies like Aimeike and Kedi that are positioned to benefit from the recovery in medical beauty consumption [7][28] Company-Specific Insights - Laopu Gold reported a revenue of 8.506 billion yuan (+167.5%) and a net profit of 1.473 billion yuan (+253.9%) for FY2024, indicating strong growth potential [29] - Yonghui Supermarket's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 54.549 billion yuan (-12.1%), with a net loss of 78 million yuan, but it is undergoing significant transformation [32] - Jinbo Bio's new collagen product is expected to provide both immediate filling effects and stimulate collagen regeneration, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [23][24]