热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来源：金十数据 尽管"货币贬值交易"再次流行，德意志银行认为，投资者可以从至少五百多年前的历史中汲取教训。 贵金属在2025年大涨后，今年开局火热，金价在周一突破5000美元大关，白银在2026年迄今涨幅超过 50%。这引发了关于"货币贬值交易"的讨论，该理论随着大宗商品价格上涨而日益流行。 "货币贬值交易"是指投资者押注包括美国在内的国家将有意使其货币贬值。这些交易者认为，随着政府 增加借贷和印更多钞票以缓解高额债务负担，这种情况将会发生。最近，随着美国在特朗普第二任期内 采取更多保护主义贸易政策，全球交易员也在远离美元。 货币贬值的观点反过来推动了黄金、白银和其他资产上涨。 然而，德意志银行认为，发生重大货币贬值的可能性不大。宏观策略师亨利·艾伦（Henry Allen）是基 于历史以及当前的市场信号做出这一判断的。 艾伦在周一的报告中解释说，货币贬值的想法已有数百年甚至数千年的历史。1544年，英国国王亨利八 世（Henry VIII）为了支付更多的政府开支而使其货币贬值。在当时，贬值是通过减少用作货币的金银 币中的贵金属含量，同时增 ...

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even though momentum is a popular stock characte ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast to $6,000, reflecting a 28% increase from its previous estimate, aligning with other major financial institutions like Societe Generale, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's new target for gold matches the forecasts of other Wall Street firms, indicating a broader consensus on the rising value of gold [1] - The increase in the gold price forecast is attributed to a rally in the yellow metal, suggesting strong market demand and potential investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank expects copper prices to peak at $13,000 per ton in Q2, followed by a decline in the second half of the year as production from major mines is likely to recover [2] - The threat of tariffs on refined copper from the U.S. is expected to lead to continued metal inflow into the U.S. during the first half of the year [2] - Aluminum prices are also anticipated to decline from current levels in the second half of the year, with an average forecast of $2,925 per ton for 2026 and a peak of $3,100 per ton in Q2 [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources in the upstream, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [2]

同时，邓智杰指出，去年开始，对于中国的投资氛围就已经在变好；从近期路演情况来看，外资投资者 对于中国股市的关注度进一步增加，其中，"十五五"规划建议提及的战略性行业等将是未来侧重配置的 板块。邓智杰表示，提振消费仍然是今年中国宏观政策的重点发力方向，预计一季度将会降准降息，同 时，医疗、教育等服务消费板块也将成为今年投资看好的行业。 国际现货黄金价格1月26日站上5100美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高，年内涨幅已超18%。 对于全年投资趋势的把握，邓智杰提到，今年全球经济的基本面较为乐观，预计全球经济能实现3%— 3.1%的增长。在此基础上，全球股票预计能实现8%-10%的收益率，其中，新兴市场的表现预计将更好 一些。 邓智杰指出，之所以给出这一收益预期，首先是因为全球主要经济体，如美国、欧洲等，都做出了相对 宽松的货币政策。预计美联储今年将降息两次，每次降息25个基点，年内首次降息预计将在5月份以 后，全年目标利率约为3%—3.25%。 "最近我们在做全球路演，我们问不同的投资人：最关心或赚钱最多的（资产）是哪一个？回答都是黄 金。"德意志银行私人银行部新兴市场首席投资官邓智杰日前接受证券时报记者采访时笑称。 ...

应用材料周五尾盘上涨1.1%，此前德银将其股票评级从"持有"上调至"买入"，并将目标价从275美元上 调至390美元。德银称，此次评级上调反映了德意志银行对2026年和2027年晶圆制造设备（WFE）环境 持更为乐观的看法。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 应用材料周五尾盘上涨1.1%，此前德银将其股票评级从"持有"上调至"买入"，并将目标价从275美元上 调至390美元。德银称，此次评级上调反映了德意志银行对2026年和2027年晶圆制造设备（WFE）环境 持更为乐观的看法。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Um, let's bring in Deutsche Banks Adrien Cox who wrote that note on OpenAI today. And Adrien, um, what do you I mean, not to be too myopic about the action today, but our investors now they've digested this massive reset over the past few months since Gemini's launch. Has that cleared the way actually for um, you know, for some maybe better data points.Um, or do you think this is so existential for OpenAI, it's going to be really hard for them. >> Well, I think you're right. This is actually in a way going ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are evaluating Deutsche Bank (DB) and HDFC Bank (HDB) to determine which stock offers better value opportunities at present [1] Valuation Metrics - Deutsche Bank has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a more favorable earnings estimate revision activity compared to HDFC Bank, which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - DB's forward P/E ratio is 9.45, significantly lower than HDB's forward P/E of 20.10, suggesting that DB may be undervalued [5] - The PEG ratio for DB is 0.36, while HDB's PEG ratio is 1.29, indicating that DB's expected earnings growth is more favorable relative to its price [5] - DB's P/B ratio stands at 0.82, compared to HDB's P/B of 2.49, further supporting the notion that DB is more attractively valued [6] Value Grades - Based on various valuation metrics, DB holds a Value grade of B, while HDB has a Value grade of D, indicating that DB is perceived as a better value investment [6][7]

然而，他同时强调，日本央行"肯定会对日元当前的走势保持一定的警惕"。数据显示，近几周日元持续 贬值，虽在过去数日略有企稳，但整体仍处于弱势。鲍尔指出，此轮疲软主要由国内政治风险驱动，包 括日本首相宣布提前解散众议院并举行大选，引发市场对政策连续性和财政纪律的担忧。 在此背景下，鲍尔认为，日本央行"或许最好不要进一步加剧市场上的这种紧张情绪"。他明确表 示："因此，采取稍微强硬一些的立场来支撑日元肯定是合适的——或者至少不能让日元承受更大的压 力。" 新华财经北京1月23日电德国商业银行外汇策略主管沃尔克马尔·鲍尔（Volkmahr Bauer）在最新评论中 表示，日本央行在本周五即将公布的利率决议中大概率将维持政策利率于0.75%不变，理由是当前通胀 已接近其2%的目标水平，为政策稳定提供支撑。 这一观点呼应了市场对日本当局可能进行"口头干预"甚至实际汇市干预的预期。尽管日本央行未必在本 次会议上调整利率，但其政策声明中的措辞、对汇率的表态以及对未来加息路径的暗示，将成为影响日 元短期走势的关键变量。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing culture of self-censorship among executives in the financial industry due to the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration, highlighting concerns about potential repercussions for speaking out against the government [1][2][3]. Group 1: Executive Concerns - Executives from major investment firms are expressing concerns about the impact of rapidly changing U.S. policies on global markets, particularly in light of Trump's controversial actions [1]. - There is a notable reluctance among executives to publicly address sensitive topics related to U.S. policies, with some advising teams to avoid controversial comments regarding U.S.-Europe relations [2][3]. - The fear of backlash from the Trump administration is leading to a culture of caution, where analysts worry that critical reports could hinder their firms' ability to operate in the U.S. [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Research and Reporting - Deutsche Bank's recent report predicting a decline in European willingness to hold U.S. assets due to Trump's actions has led to attempts by the bank's CEO to distance the firm from the report [1][4]. - Analysts are increasingly modifying their reports to avoid potential criticism from the Trump administration, with some even redacting parts of their analyses to mitigate risks [4]. - The emphasis on producing independent and impactful research is being overshadowed by the need to avoid unnecessary provocations that could embarrass the government [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Danish and Swedish pension funds are withdrawing from U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over U.S. policies, budget deficits, and national debt unpredictability [5]. - The actions of these funds reflect a broader trend of caution among international investors regarding U.S. assets amid the current political climate [5].