Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that President Trump's policies may lead to a "capital war," causing foreign governments and investors to reduce their investments in U.S. assets [2][5] Group 1: Economic and Market Implications - Dalio highlights that escalating trade tensions and increasing fiscal deficits could undermine confidence in U.S. debt, prompting investors to shift towards hard assets like gold [2][6] - He emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment portfolios, recommending that investors allocate 5% to 15% of their portfolios to gold as a key hedge [2][6] - Following Dalio's remarks, gold prices surged, reaching over $4,760 for the first time, reflecting a flight to safety amid fears of a potential tariff war between the U.S. and Europe [2] Group 2: Potential European Responses - Deutsche Bank warns that Europe, holding over $8 trillion in U.S. assets, could "weaponize" capital in response to U.S. tariffs, escalating the conflict beyond mere trade disputes [5][12] - The European Union is considering three levels of response to U.S. tariffs, including postponing trade agreements, imposing tariffs on $108 billion worth of U.S. goods, and activating the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to counter economic pressure [8][9][10] Group 3: Capital War Risks - Dalio expresses concern that countries holding significant amounts of U.S. dollars and debt may become reluctant to finance U.S. deficits if trust erodes [6][12] - Historical precedents show that economic conflicts can escalate from trade disputes to capital and currency conflicts, leading to a preference for hard currencies over holding each other's debt [6][12] - Deutsche Bank notes that if the ACI is activated, it could lead to regulatory tightening and tax investigations on U.S. assets in Europe, potentially causing asymmetric damage to U.S. businesses [12] Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market tensions have already emerged, with U.S. stock futures, European markets, and the dollar under pressure, while gold and safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and euro have gained [14] - Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% tariff could reduce the GDP of affected countries by 0.1% to 0.2%, with Germany facing a relatively larger impact [13]

新华财经北京1月21日电德国商业银行研究分析师在一份报告中指出，2026年亚洲货币兑美元汇率或将 保持"相对稳定或略微优于美元"。该地区外汇储备状况良好。宏观经济形势乐观，预计亚洲经济增长将 保持稳定，通胀也将保持在可控范围内。 分析师表示："贸易和财政方面均不存在极端失衡。"亚洲的政策制定者也不太可能鼓励本币对美元的进 一步大幅升值。鉴于全球仍存在持续的地缘政治风险，他们应当采取谨慎且明智的策略。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Alps Electric - Alps Electric is a Japan-based company engaged in the manufacture and sale of electronic components and audio equipment, carrying a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alps Electric's current year earnings has increased by 6.9% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 25.05, compared to 32 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of A [2] Group 2: Deutsche Bank - Deutsche Bank is the largest bank in Germany and one of the largest financial institutions globally, offering a wide variety of investment and financial products and services, also carrying a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deutsche Bank's current year earnings has increased by 1.4% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 9.38, compared to 13.20 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of B [3] Group 3: Carter's - Carter's is the largest marketer of branded apparel and related products for babies and young children in North America, carrying a Zacks Rank 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carter's current year earnings has increased by 5.9% over the last 60 days [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 15.72, compared to 22.30 for the industry, and possesses a Value Score of B [4]

Germany's DBV labour union is demanding a 7% pay increase for up to 8,000 Deutsche Bank group employees, as they hope to benefit from the bank's improved finances, the union said on Tuesday. ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 摩根大通：将德商银行欧股目标价从33欧元上调至36欧元。 ...

高盛提示，欧盟内部可能呼吁启动反胁迫工具。德银报告更警示欧洲抛售持有的八万亿美元资产的风险。 据央视新闻，当地时间1月17日，美总统特朗普发文称，将对8个反对其收购格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征10%的关 税，数月后还将增至25%，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议，引发了市场对贸易战的担忧。 受此影响，19日全球市场避险情绪升温，黄金、美债等避险资产上涨，现货黄金站上4690美元/盎司关口，刷新历 史高点，现货白银站上94美元/盎司关口，创历史新高。美股期货走低。 高盛提示，欧盟内部可能呼吁启动反胁迫工具（Anti-Coercion Instrument,ACI）。德银报告更警示欧洲抛售持有的 八万亿美元资产的风险。不论如何，在特朗普政策不确定性迭起之下，全球投资者转向非美资产投资的趋势越来 越显著。 机构警告欧洲报复风险 德意志银行的外汇策略全球主管萨拉维诺斯（George Saravelos）在周日的致客户报告中警示，尽管特朗普就格陵 兰问题对欧洲各国重启贸易威胁，但考虑到美国对欧洲资本的依赖，欧元所受冲击可能受限。更为关键的是，在 美国中期选举临近的敏感时期，欧洲作为美国最大债主，手握关键战略筹码：欧洲 ...

Core Insights - The World Economic Forum (WEF) 2026 annual meeting opened in Davos, Switzerland, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting a global economic growth rate of 3.1% amid increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainties [2] - The focus of discussions has shifted from broad consensus statements to specific mechanisms and bottlenecks that can guide investment decisions [2] Group 1: AI and Investment Trends - AI is now being discussed within the framework of real economic constraints, with its impact extending beyond software to energy, infrastructure, and natural resources [4] - The expansion of AI and data centers is driving early investments in power grid infrastructure, with European utility companies reallocating funds towards transmission and distribution network upgrades [4][5] - Water management is identified as a long-term investment opportunity, with projects focusing on water reuse, leakage control, and smart networks gaining traction [4] Group 2: Investment Strategy Adjustments - There is a pragmatic re-adjustment in the market regarding green investments, with no systemic return differences between sustainable and non-ESG investments, influenced by macroeconomic conditions [6] - Investors are shifting from concentrated bets on single themes to more goal-oriented portfolio construction, integrating sustainability as a tool for managing long-term transition risks alongside AI and infrastructure [6] - The evaluation of AI investments should focus on specific application improvements rather than relying solely on macro narratives, as these improvements may lead to profitability and cash flow over time [6][7] Group 3: Policy Signals and Funding Flows - The effectiveness of discussions at the Davos Forum in influencing policy and funding flows hinges on the clarity of actionable signals rather than mere statements [8] - Key indicators include alignment of policy dynamics with existing official roadmaps, specific commitments to market infrastructure, and the connection of financing paths to real economic bottlenecks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The key discussion at the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2026 is how funds can find certainty amid global trade tensions and policy uncertainties, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting a global economic growth rate of 3.1% for 2026 [2] Group 1: AI and Investment Shifts - AI is being discussed within the framework of real economic constraints, with generative AI transitioning from a software focus to impacting energy, infrastructure, and natural resource demands [5] - The expansion of AI and data centers is driving investments in power grid infrastructure, with European utility companies reallocating funds towards transmission and distribution network upgrades [5] - Water management is identified as a long-term investment opportunity, with projects focusing on water reuse, leak control, and smart networks gaining traction [5] Group 2: Sustainable Investment Trends - There is no directional reversal in green investments; rather, a pragmatic adjustment is occurring, with sustainable investments being integrated into broader investment strategies alongside AI and infrastructure [7] - Investors are shifting from concentrated bets on single themes to more goal-oriented portfolio construction, viewing sustainability as a tool for managing long-term transition risks [7] - The evaluation of AI's long-term value must consider energy, infrastructure, and resource security, as the supply of critical materials is highly concentrated [7] Group 3: Policy Signals and Funding Flows - The effectiveness of discussions at the WEF in influencing policy and funding flows hinges on the clarity of actionable signals rather than mere statements [9] - Key indicators include alignment of policy dynamics with existing official roadmaps and collective goals, as well as specific commitments that facilitate cross-border capital flows [9] - The connection between discussions on AI and financing solutions for critical constraints like electricity and water resources is crucial for attracting private funding [9]

Group 1 - Generative AI is transforming from a software application to a real demand for energy, infrastructure, and natural resources, indicating its broad impact as a general-purpose technology [1][3] - The current economic environment characterized by high interest rates and low growth is reshaping asset allocation, with international funds increasingly focusing on sectors closely related to cash flow and key infrastructure, particularly utilities [3] - The expansion of AI and data centers is driving early investments in the power grid, with European utility companies reallocating capital expenditures towards transmission and distribution network upgrades [3] Group 2 - Discussions around green investment are not reversing direction but are undergoing a pragmatic adjustment, with sustainable investment being integrated into a broader investment framework alongside AI, healthcare, and infrastructure [4] - Investors are shifting from concentrated bets on single themes to more goal-oriented portfolio construction, viewing sustainability as a tool for managing long-term transition risks [4] - The assessment of AI's long-term value must consider resource constraints, including the supply of critical materials and environmental costs, as these factors are becoming essential in investment analysis [4] Group 3 - The effectiveness of discussions at the Davos Forum in influencing policy direction and capital flows hinges on the release of executable signals rather than mere statements [5] - Key indicators include the alignment of policy dynamics with existing official roadmaps and collective goals, as well as specific commitments that facilitate cross-border capital flows [5] - The connection between real economic bottlenecks and clear financing pathways is crucial for increasing the likelihood of private capital follow-up, particularly in areas like AI infrastructure linked to power, grid, and water resources [5]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月19日，德国商业银行、德意志银行和瑞银集团股价分别下跌2.6%、2.1%和1.6%。 ...