A German court signaled that Deutsche Bank, UniCredit and DZ Bank may win a fight to get back their share of a €2.3 billion restructuring fund they were forced to pay into after the 2008 financial crisis https://t.co/iLfRcF2dLs ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of "invisible champions," which are companies that dominate niche markets but remain relatively unknown to the general public. These companies do not seek to increase their exposure or go public, yet they achieve significant success in their specialized fields [1][5][6]. Group 1: Invisible Champions in Germany - Germany has a significant number of invisible champions, with nearly half of the global total located there, while China has fewer than 100 [7][8]. - The characteristics of these invisible champions include being rooted in small towns, having low employee turnover, and focusing on highly specialized products that are difficult to replicate [8][24]. - Examples of successful invisible champions include Wanzl, which dominates the global market for shopping carts, and Körber, a leader in high-speed cigarette manufacturing [11][15]. Group 2: Challenges Facing German Invisible Champions - Recently, many German invisible champions, particularly in the automotive sector, have faced bankruptcy, with notable companies like Gerhardi going under [34][38]. - Contributing factors to this trend include rising costs due to geopolitical issues, such as the energy crisis following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a looming labor shortage as the workforce ages [39][44]. - The decline in demand for German products is also attributed to the rise of Chinese automotive supply chain companies, which offer competitive pricing and quality [43][45]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Invisible Champions - German small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which include many invisible champions, account for over 99% of all companies and contribute 55% to the GDP [24]. - These SMEs play a crucial role in job creation, employing over 70% of the workforce and providing around 80% of vocational training positions [24][46]. - The article emphasizes the need for attention and protection for these less visible but vital companies, as they form the backbone of the German economy [46].

Deutsche Bank and five ex-managers ended mediation proceedings without reaching common ground in a dispute over allegations the bank acted wrongfully in a criminal case that they say harmed their careers https://t.co/rRCk3BAocw ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank predict that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year (September, October, December), a significant upgrade from previous expectations of rate cuts only in September and December [1] - This adjustment is based on recent data showing easing inflation pressures and signs of a slowing labor market, with the market widely expecting the Fed to restart its easing cycle after December 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that a rate cut may occur at the September 16-17 meeting, highlighting rising risks in the labor market while warning that inflation threats remain [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley further notes that the current market environment allows the Fed to shift more quickly to a neutral policy stance, potentially implementing rate cuts of 25 basis points in four consecutive meetings starting this week, continuing until January next year, with additional cuts expected in April and July 2026 [1] - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist, Matthew Luzetti, believes that while the current forecast does not include further cuts in 2026, risks lean towards more rate cuts if inflation and labor market trends do not align with levels below the neutral rate [1] - According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut next week, with only a 5% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [1]

德银进一步加码亚太及新兴市场，积极投入中国市场。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ 罗宾 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，近日，德意志银行国际私人银行部宣布，正式任命邓智杰博士（Jacky Tang Chi Kit）为新兴市场首席投资官（CIO）。履新后，邓智杰将常驻香港，并同时出任新兴市场全权 委托投资组合管理（DPM）业务主管，全面负责推动德银在新兴市场全权委托投资组合管理业务的 战略发展与客户深耕。 邓智杰拥有超过25年的丰富经验。2012年加入高盛后，历任亚洲区投资策略组主管、投资组合管理 组主管。此前，他曾任职于瑞士信贷、摩根士丹利、法国巴黎银行、美林证券及知名对冲基金 Brevan Howard Asset Management，在全球宏观经济与市场研判、多资产配置等领域积累了深 厚的专业积淀。 加入德银后，邓智杰将直接向德银全球首席投资官Christian Nolting、以及私人银行部银行贷款与 投资托管解决方案（Banking, Lending & Investment Solutions）全球主管Maria Haindl汇报。 同时，邓智杰将加入德银首席投资官办公室 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market risks are increasing, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to shift its focus towards stabilizing growth and initiating a monetary easing cycle, with expectations of interest rate cuts in the near future [1][2][4]. Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, and revised data indicated a loss of jobs in June, highlighting a cooling labor market [2][3]. - A benchmark revision showed that over 910,000 jobs were added in the past year compared to initial reports, indicating a significant downward adjustment in employment figures [2][3]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's position has shifted since summer, with officials increasingly prioritizing employment stability over inflation concerns [2][3]. - Recent market pricing indicates a high probability of rate cuts in September, October, and December, with expectations of 25 basis point reductions in each meeting [4][5]. Predictions and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have adjusted their forecasts, now predicting three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the remaining meetings of the year, reflecting a more aggressive easing stance [4][5]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more neutral policy stance, with potential for continued rate cuts into 2026 [5]. Economic Forecasts - The upcoming quarterly economic projections from the Federal Reserve will provide insights into inflation, unemployment, and interest rate expectations, which are crucial for market direction [3][4].

Group 1 - Economists from Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at a faster pace in the coming months due to slowing inflation and a weakening labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank has increased its forecast for rate cuts in the remainder of 2025 to three times, up from its previous expectation [1] - Morgan Stanley economists anticipate consecutive rate cuts at four meetings until January of next year [1]

Group 1 - Economists at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank are predicting accelerated Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts due to slowing inflation and a weakening labor market [1][3] - The Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis-point cut at its upcoming meeting, with traders anticipating further reductions in October and December [1][2] - Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast to include a third interest-rate cut in 2025, while Morgan Stanley expects cuts at four consecutive meetings through January [1][4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the upper bound of the target range will reach 3.5% by January, with cuts expected in September, October, December, and January [2][5] - Economists suggest that the Fed will pause after January to assess inflationary impacts, with potential further cuts anticipated in April and July [4][5] - The argument against a larger 50 basis-point cut this month is based on the relatively low unemployment rate and the current fed funds rate being closer to neutral [6]

德意志银行：在美联储2025年降息时间预期中新增10月份。 来源：滚动播报 ...

格隆汇9月12日｜德国商业银行分析师Thu Lan Nguyen说，欧元兑美元EUR/USD可能升至1.20上方，但 这未必会给欧洲央行带来问题。欧洲央行副行长金多斯曾表示，这样的水平可能会很棘手。然而，正如 欧洲央行在周四的会议上所说，增长前景有所改善。在这方面，对于欧元进一步走强的容忍度可能会更 高。德国商业银行将欧美年底预估从之前的1.20调高至1.22，理由是预期美联储将进一步降息，且美联 储的独立性将受到侵蚀。她说，欧洲央行将难以应对美元走软导致的欧元走强。 来源：格隆汇APP ...