美国国债收益率在亚洲时段全线小幅走低，市场正忙于消化有关美联储主席提名人凯文·沃什的预期。 德国商业银行的Erik Liem在一份报告中称："特朗普对凯文·沃什的提名强化了一种预期，即美联储未来 使用其资产负债表的力度可能不如过去那么大。"美国财政部决定维持标售规模不变，同时继续评估未 来增加中期国债、长期国债和浮动利率票据标售规模的可能性，此举符合预期。据Tradeweb的数据，两 年期美国国债收益率小幅走低0.6个基点，至3.551%；10年期国债收益率下跌1个基点，至4.267%；30年 期国债收益率下跌0.6个基点，至4.909%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

2026年刚刚过去一个多月，美股却已经反复上演同一种情景：盘中急跌、情绪失控、但收盘前迅速修 复，甚至重返高位。 据追风交易台，德意志银行在最新报告中指出，仅1月以来，标普500指数已经出现至少5次"快速下挫— 迅速反弹"的典型案例。 这些波动往往伴随着地缘政治、关税威胁、科技股恐慌或AI竞争叙事，但几乎都未对大盘造成实质 性、持续性的破坏。 在德银看来，这并非偶然，而可能是当前美股正在形成的一种"新常态"。 五次"假摔"：风险事件频发，但市场拒绝深跌 德银宏观策略师Henry Allen梳理了2026年初以来几次具有代表性的快速回撤： 1月中旬地缘政治风险升温：标普500在1月12日创出新高后，因市场担忧美国可能介入 伊朗局势、叠加有关格陵兰岛的政治表态，指数盘中一度下跌逾1%。但恐慌迅速消 散，当日跌幅明显收窄，随后两天再度反弹。 1月下旬关税威胁引发抛售：美国提出对部分欧洲国家征收关税的可能性，导致标普 500单日大跌逾2%。然而，随着谈判框架浮现，指数在接下来两个交易日连续反弹， 几乎完全修复跌幅。 1月底科技股Capex担忧：微软财报显示资本开支高于预期，引发市场对AI投资回报周 期的担忧，软件板块 ...

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Core Viewpoint - A group of banks led by Deutsche Bank AG is facing challenges in selling approximately $1.2 billion of loans related to the acquisition of a software provider, reflecting investor concerns about potential disruptions from artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: Loan Details and Acquisition - Deutsche Bank plans to fund Conga Corp.'s acquisition of PROS Holdings' B2B unit with a $625 million term loan, while a $540 million loan maturing in 2028 will remain outstanding [2] - The debt offering for Conga included a $1.17 billion loan with an interest rate of 4 percentage points above the benchmark rate and a discount between 97.5 cents to 98 cents on the dollar [5] Group 2: Market Sentiment and AI Disruption - There is a lack of interest in the debt due to increasing anxiety over exposure to sectors affected by AI, particularly among software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies like Conga, which provide document automation software [3] - The risk of AI disruption is impacting credit markets globally, leading to declines in shares of business development companies that are heavily invested in software [7] Group 3: Implications of Hung Debt - If banks cannot sell the committed debt before the acquisition closes, they will retain these borrowings on their balance sheets, which could limit their capacity to underwrite future loans [6]

德意志银行：未来5-7年，美联储可能仍然是短期美国国债的活跃买家。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:DB) ranks among the biggest publicly traded asset managers. On January 29, Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (NYSE:DB) reported its highest annual profit since 2007, following a better-than-expected fourth quarter. The German bank reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.12 billion euros ($7.3 billion) last year, boosted by strong performance at its global investment bank. Pixabay/Public Domain The past year also marked the end of a three-year financi ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of Google's Genie 3 has led to significant stock sell-offs in the gaming and advertising technology sectors, with companies like Unity, Roblox, and AppLovin experiencing declines of 17% to 24% in a single day. However, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank argue that the market's reaction is an overreaction, as Genie 3 is primarily a development efficiency tool rather than a disruptor of business models [1][3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of Genie 3, the market interpreted it as a threat to traditional game engines and developers, leading to a sharp sell-off. This reaction was characterized as a "shoot first, ask later" approach, lacking rational pricing adjustments based on fundamental changes [5][6]. Analysis of Genie 3 - Genie 3 is officially positioned as a tool that can generate interactive 3D world models based on text or image prompts. However, this capability has been oversimplified by the market to suggest that it can create playable game worlds with a single sentence [4][5]. Misunderstanding of Value Creation - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the distinction between content generation and the creation of commercially successful games. The long-term value of games relies on structured systems, continuous content updates, and effective customer acquisition and retention mechanisms, which Genie 3 does not fully address [6][7]. Industry Structure Perspective - Deutsche Bank argues that the market has overlooked a critical fact: as content generation becomes easier, the truly scarce resources will be IP, user scale, and mature distribution and monetization systems, rather than the content itself [9][10]. Pricing Mismatches - The recent stock price declines reflect three mismatches: 1. A temporal mismatch, as the market assumed a mature state for Genie 3 while it is still in early validation [11] 2. A mismatch in pricing targets, as the sell-off affected companies with established platforms and cash flows rather than low-value content producers [12] 3. A mismatch in profit models, as the core valuation of gaming companies is based on stable cash flows from long-term operations, not short-term content generation efficiency [13]. Investment Implications - Both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank maintain that the recent stock price fluctuations should be viewed as a correction following an overheated AI narrative, rather than a signal of systemic deterioration in the gaming industry. They suggest that the risk-reward structure for some companies has improved significantly post-sell-off [15].

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 2月2日，德意志银行发布报告称，近期的下跌不会带来长期趋势转变，金价仍有望达到每盎司6000美元 的目标价位。该行分析师Micheal Hsueh在报告中写道："包括央行买盘在内，黄金的主题驱动因素依然 积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金的理由将不会有变，市场状况似乎并不支持价格持续逆转。" 同日，中信证券发布2026年主要金属价格展望，指出贵金属将受益于货币属性和避险情绪共振，延续强 势，黄金2026年有望涨至6000美元/盎司；白银则或因现货短缺和交易热度获得价格弹性，2026年目标 价为120美元/盎司。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，在金价暴跌之际，德意志银行仍维持对金价6000美元/盎司的预测不变。 ...

来源：环球市场播报 与此同时，人工智能（AI）板块前景疑虑浮现，华尔街目光聚焦英伟达。据知情人士透露，英伟达计 划向OpenAI注资1000亿美元的方案已陷入停滞，芯片制造商高管对该交易提出质疑。然而，英伟达 CEO黄仁勋周六向记者表示："我们将投入巨资。我相信OpenAI，他们的工作令人惊叹，是当今最具影 响力的公司之一。"尽管未透露具体金额，但他强调投资规模"巨大"。 本周将迎来财报与就业数据密集发布的关键周。超100家标普500成分股公司，包括亚马逊、Alphabet和 迪士尼等巨头，将陆续公布财报。尽管本财报季整体表现亮眼，但微软等企业财报发布后股价大幅下跌 的案例，也令市场保持警惕。德意志银行策略师指出，当前企业盈利增长势头有望创下四年以来最高水 平，为市场提供一定支撑。 此外，华尔街正密切关注周五早间公布的美国1月非农就业报告。道琼斯调查的经济学家预计，1月新增 就业岗位5.5万个，数据表现将直接影响市场对美联储货币政策的预期。此前，美股已因特朗普提名凯 文·沃什出任美联储主席而承压，主要指数集体走低。若提名获确认，沃什将于今年晚些时候接替杰罗 姆·鲍威尔执掌美联储，政策走向不确定性增加。 周一早 ...