来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 "我们观察到此类客户持续增配直接私募市场投资、多资产基金和保险类财富规划产品等。"黎敬之说， 香港凭借通往中国内地门户的战略地位，沪深港通、债券通等独特跨境互联互通机制，以及虚拟资产牌 照制度、稳定币监管和数字港元试点等创新举措，提升了全球竞争力。 在财富管理方面，黎敬之预测，亚洲在未来十年或将迎来史上最大规模的代际财富传承需求，这些家族 将稳健的传承规划、全球财富管理架构和长期资本保值需求放在首位。香港的优势包括本地对家族投资 控股工具的优惠税收制度、优化升级的资本投资者入境计划，以及不断壮大的专业人才储备。 他表示，得益于资本自由流动、世界一流的金融基础设施、全球市场联通性，以及对创新的持续投入， 香港在全球市场中扮演着关键角色，是海外与中国内地资本市场之间的重要桥梁。(完) 专访德意志银行香港特别行政区总经理：定制化金融服务需求强劲 中新网北京12月17日电 (陶思阅)德意志银行香港特别行政区总经理黎敬之日前接受中新网专访时表示， 香港仍然是亚洲企业家和代际财富管理的重要门户，两大核心客群——企业家和家族办公室的需求强 劲。 进一步分析，黎敬之 ...

格隆汇12月17日丨美元指数收复非农数据公布后的跌幅，德国商业银行分析师Antje Praefcke在一份报告 中表示，虽然美元最初因该数据而下跌，但市场"并没有真正追随美联储最早可能在明年1月再次降息的 趋势"。再次降息的门槛似乎有所提高，因此美元收复了一些失地。 ...

Group 1 - Several foreign institutions, including UBS, JPMorgan, and Fidelity International, believe that Chinese assets have a solid foundation for continued rebound due to profit growth, accelerated innovation, and attractive valuations in their 2026 macroeconomic and stock market outlooks [1] - International long-term capital is showing strong interest in Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like healthcare, robotics, and low-altitude economy, with significant investments from Middle Eastern funds [2] - As of November, foreign long-term capital net bought approximately $10 billion in A-shares and H-shares, contrasting sharply with an outflow of about $17 billion in 2024, indicating a positive trend in foreign investment [3] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank projects that consumption will remain the main driver of China's economic growth, with a recovery in investment contributions and strong export performance [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, which is expected to support ongoing structural reforms [5] - UBS highlights that the technology sector in China represents one of the most significant global opportunities, with expected corporate profit growth of up to 37% in 2026, driven by ample liquidity [6]

Economic Growth Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP growth target of 5% for the year is almost certain to be achieved, supported by strong economic indicators [1][3] - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, predicting a steady export growth of 5%-6% through 2026, with a diminishing negative impact from the real estate sector on GDP growth [2][3] Export Performance - In the first eleven months, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2%, exceeding expectations [3] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the growth in China's export volume will continue to rise by 5%-6% annually in the coming years, driven by an expanding global market share [3] Real Estate Sector Impact - The real estate market, while still weak, is expected to have a reduced direct negative impact on GDP growth, with the drag decreasing by approximately 0.5 percentage points annually in the coming years [3][4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to reduce excess inventory in the real estate sector, which is seen as a necessary step for economic recovery [4][6] Policy Measures - The central economic work conference outlined key strategies for economic work in the coming year, focusing on increasing household income and promoting service consumption to boost domestic demand [6] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the fiscal deficit rate will remain around 8.5% of GDP in 2026, with special government bond issuance increasing to 1.5 trillion yuan [6][7] Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a consensus among various investment banks that the fiscal deficit rate will stabilize around 4% of GDP, although opinions differ on the likelihood and extent of interest rate cuts [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 20 basis point interest rate cut, while UBS expects a combination of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [7] Currency Outlook - The strong export performance and a current account surplus of $600 billion (2.8% of GDP) are expected to accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi [8] - Deutsche Bank projects that the renminbi will appreciate against the US dollar, reaching 6.7 by the end of 2026 and further strengthening to 6.5 by the end of 2027 [8]

Key Takeaways A December screen applies P/B, P/S, P/E and PEG to identify five value stocks above $5 with strong liquidity.StoneCo, General Motors, EnerSys, Deutsche Bank and Keros Therapeutics trade below industry P/B medians.The screen stresses comparing P/B within industries and pairing it with other valuation ratios.There are several different ways to find value stocks. Among these, the most popular are the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) and price-to-sales ratio (P/S). However, investors often overlook t ...

With perceived growing risk in tech, investors are rotating into industrial, sending the sector to record levels. Joining us now is Nicole Del, Deutsche Bank research analyst. Nicole, great to have you with us. >> Thanks, great to be here.>> Uh, you know, it's actually been an extraordinary run that maybe people aren't even paying attention to. Um, it's the longest winning streak since August of 2020. The transports though, Nicole, as you know very well know, are are they're very different in terms of the c ...

Group 1 - The US has a larger upside from AI but also faces bigger risks, with sharper sell-offs compared to Europe [1][2] - Europe is considered a safer investment environment, with Germany being the most favorable market due to a recent constitutional amendment shifting from austerity to fiscal expansion [3][4] - There is a significant opportunity in Germany as global investors have lost patience, leading to net outflows, while the government is expected to increase spending [5] Group 2 - The German market is expected to benefit from fiscal spending, particularly in midcap companies that have higher domestic exposure [6][7] - Companies involved in construction and infrastructure are likely to see substantial upside, as the government plans to invest heavily in these areas alongside defense spending [8]

华尔街多家大行看空美元！ 日前，多家华尔街大行表示，随着美联储继续推进降息周期，美元将在明年恢复下跌态势。摩根士丹利 G10外汇策略主管戴维·亚当斯表示，该行预计美元明年上半年将下跌5%。 华尔街大行看空美元 据彭博社消息，德意志银行、摩根士丹利、高盛集团等华尔街大行预测，美元将在明年恢复下跌态势。 今年上半年，受特朗普政府发起的贸易战冲击，美元创下20世纪70年代初以来最深跌幅，但在过去六个 月中逐渐企稳。 不过，策略师们预计美元将在2026年再次走弱，因美联储继续放宽货币政策，而其他主要央行则保持利 率稳定或转向加息。这种政策分化将促使投资者抛售美国债券，将资金转向收益率更高的国家。 因此，多家主要投资银行的预测机构普遍认为，美元兑日元、欧元和英镑等主要货币将走低。彭博社汇 总的预测中值显示，一项备受关注的美元指数到2026年底将下跌约3%。 不过，也有少数机构持相反观点。花旗集团和渣打银行的分析师认为，由人工智能繁荣驱动的美国经济 依然保持强劲，有望持续吸引国际资本流入，从而支撑美元汇率。"我们认为2026年美元周期复苏潜力 强劲。"花旗团队在年度展望中写道。 "市场有充分的空间为更深入的降息周期定价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks are bearish on the US dollar, predicting a decline as the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a 5% drop in the first half of next year [1][2]. Group 1: Predictions on the US Dollar - Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs anticipate a weakening of the dollar in 2026 due to the Fed's continued easing while other central banks maintain or raise rates [2]. - The Bloomberg consensus predicts a 3% decline in the dollar index by the end of 2026 [2]. - Morgan Stanley's David Adams states that the dollar has ample room for further depreciation, expecting a 5% drop in the first half of next year [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - A weaker dollar is expected to have a chain reaction on the US economy, increasing import costs, enhancing the value of overseas profits for companies, and boosting exports [4]. - The shift of investor funds to emerging markets for higher yields could extend the rally in these markets, with significant returns recorded in carry trades since 2009 [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Currency Trends - Analysts note that the dollar tends to depreciate when global economic performance is strong, with G10 currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars benefiting from better-than-expected data [5]. - Some institutions, like Citigroup and Standard Chartered, maintain a bullish outlook on the dollar, citing the strength of the US economy driven by AI and potential international capital inflows [5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve has raised its growth forecast for 2026 while announcing a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [6]. - Market expectations include two more 25 basis point cuts next year, with a focus on the new Fed chair's potential influence on future rate decisions [6].

Market Outlook - Deutsche Bank projects the S&P 500 to reach 7500 by the end of 2026, anticipating US stocks to slightly outperform international stocks and a strengthening dollar [1] - The dollar is expected to stabilize, avoiding the significant weakness seen in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - While the dollar experienced weakness in 2025, it's still up 7% since 2021, representing an annualized increase of around 2% [5] - Deutsche Bank's 12-month outlook includes dollar yen at 145 [5] Economic Factors - The strength of the US economy and double-digit equity market returns are expected to attract fund flows, supporting the dollar [4] - A potential 20% year-over-year increase in tax refunds in the first half of the year could stimulate spending and market activity [9] - Non-residential fixed asset investment, particularly in AI data centers, is driving GDP growth [12] Geopolitical Considerations - Geopolitical risks, especially concerning oil, remain a factor to monitor, although the situation is perceived as potentially more stable in 2026 compared to 2025 [6] Political and Policy Impact - Midterm election years typically exhibit a pattern of positive market performance in the first and fourth quarters, with a lull in the second and third quarters [8] - The market's reaction to the Trump administration and GOP policies, particularly regarding the "K-shaped economy," will be crucial [7][11]