Group 1 - Nvidia's significant investment in OpenAI has reignited the AI boom, leading to record highs in the three major U.S. stock indices and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, reflecting heightened market sentiment [1] - Risk assets and safe-haven assets have both reached historical highs, raising questions among investors about whether the market has achieved "perfect pricing" and if it has fully reflected all positive factors, potentially limiting future gains [3] - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that the market is far from "perfect pricing," indicating that concerns about future risks provide potential upside for the market [3][4] Group 2 - The report outlines five key reasons why the market is not "perfectly priced," starting with the historical high in gold prices, which signals market fear rather than extreme optimism [4] - Current U.S. inflation expectations remain elevated, with the 2-year inflation swap rate at 2.92%, indicating that inflation pressures are priced in, which limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [7][5] - Ongoing tariff concerns persist, with potential for additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, reflecting unresolved risks in the market [8][9] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of concern, with non-farm payroll growth averaging only 64,000 over the past six months, the lowest in the current economic cycle, and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, the highest since late 2021 [9] - There is a widespread expectation among investors for further interest rate cuts by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which reflects concerns about potential economic slowdown rather than strong economic signals [10]

🇩🇪 $1.1 TRILLION DEUTSCHE BANK SAYS CENTRAL BANKS WILL ADD BITCOIN TO THEIR RESERVES BY 2030. https://t.co/GZCMgkwCqB ...

RT Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine)JUST IN: 🇩🇪 $1 trillion Deutsche Bank says central banks may buy #Bitcoin for their balance sheets by 2030 👀Bullish! 🚀 https://t.co/PlQsVt20qz ...

JUST IN: 🇩🇪 $1.05 trillion Deutsche Bank says central banks may buy and hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets by 2030. https://t.co/IPHWPVlz70 ...

JUST IN: 🇩🇪 $1 trillion Deutsche Bank says central banks may buy #Bitcoin for their balance sheets by 2030 👀Bullish! 🚀 https://t.co/PlQsVt20qz ...

us crypto news. Photo by BeInCrypto Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead. Grab a coffee to digest Deutsche Bank’s warning on equities. This warning, paired with a cautious stance on global growth, provokes the thought of where capital will flow next and what it could mean for Bitcoin (BTC). Bitcoin News of the Day: Deutsche Bank Predicts Bitcoin on Central Bank Balance Sheets by 2030 Bitcoin is edging closer ...

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to join gold as a recognized reserve asset within the decade, German lender Deutsche Bank (DBK) said in a report Monday, though the precious metal will likely keep its lead in official holdings for now. The U.S. dollar still makes up 57% of global reserves, the report noted, but signs of diversification are emerging. China’s U.S. Treasury holdings fell $57 billion in 2024, and momentum for crypto regulation is building in major markets. Deutsche Bank argues that bitcoin and gold ...

Group 1 - The price of gold reached a record high of $3,757.60 per ounce, indicating investor fear and a search for safe havens, while the S&P 500 also hit a new all-time high at 6,664.36, reflecting optimism in the stock market [1][2] - Deutsche Bank's analysis suggests that investors are simultaneously bullish on equities and fearful of significant downside risks, highlighting a complex market sentiment [3] - Historical context shows that high gold prices often correlate with economic uncertainty, as seen in September when gold prices surpassed their inflation-adjusted peak from January 1980, a period marked by recession fears [4] Group 2 - Current investor fears include persistent U.S. inflation above target, potential government shutdowns, and concerns over a slowdown in payrolls, which have led to expectations of rapid interest rate cuts [5] - There is speculation about AI stocks being in a bubble, reminiscent of the dot-com boom, which previously caused a decline in gold prices due to over-optimism in tech stocks [6]

Core Viewpoint - A significant strategy known as "hedging against the US" is emerging in global capital markets, characterized by a massive influx of international funds into the US while simultaneously a potential trillion-dollar wave of shorting the dollar is brewing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major Wall Street banks, including State Street, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas, predict that the ongoing hedging activities will significantly pressure the dollar's performance in the coming year [2][8]. - Deutsche Bank noted that since mid-year, inflows into "dollar-hedged" US asset ETFs have surpassed those into "non-dollar-hedged" funds for the first time in a decade, indicating an unprecedented speed of this shift [2][8]. Group 2: Scale of Hedging - The potential scale of this hedging wave is estimated at approximately $1 trillion, which would restore the hedging ratio of global investors holding over $30 trillion in US stocks and bonds to the average level of the past decade [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Foreign investors currently hold about $20 trillion in US stocks and approximately $14 trillion in US bonds, with a noted decrease in their hedging ratios for fixed income and equities by about five and two percentage points, respectively, in recent years [11]. - A survey by Bank of America revealed that 38% of global fund managers are seeking to increase currency hedging to counter a weakening dollar, marking the highest level since June [13]. Group 4: Operational Strategies - One common hedging method employed by overseas investors is selling dollar forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, which typically translates into selling pressure on the dollar in the spot market [9]. - The current hedging ratio for foreign investors has stabilized around 56%, down from approximately 70% mid-year, indicating a strategic shift rather than a mass liquidation of US assets [11].

Group 1 - A significant strategy in global capital markets is emerging, termed "hedging the dollar," with international funds flowing into the US while a potential $1 trillion shorting wave against the dollar is developing [1][4] - Major banks like State Street, Deutsche Bank, and BNP Paribas predict that this hedging trend will significantly pressure the dollar's performance in the coming year [1][4] - Deutsche Bank noted that since mid-2023, inflows into "dollar-hedged" US asset ETFs have surpassed "non-dollar-hedged" funds for the first time in a decade, indicating an unprecedented speed of this shift [1] Group 2 - The estimated scale of the hedging wave is around $1 trillion, which would restore the hedging ratio of global investors holding over $30 trillion in US stocks and bonds to the average level of the past decade [4] - The dollar's strength has been challenged, particularly after the Trump administration's tariff policies in April, which led to a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, contributing to the dollar's decline [6] - Analysts suggest that if the market speculates that the Federal Reserve is pressured by the White House to lower rates, the logical approach would be to favor US stocks and bonds while disfavoring the dollar [7] Group 3 - The most common hedging method among overseas investors is selling dollar forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, which translates into selling pressure on the dollar in the spot market [5] - As of April, the hedging ratio for foreign investors holding US assets stabilized around 56%, down from approximately 70% in mid-2023, indicating a significant shift in hedging behavior [8] - A recent survey by Bank of America revealed that 38% of global fund managers are seeking to increase currency hedging to address dollar weakness, marking the highest level since June [8]