"在带领美联储度过大萧条和二战之后，埃克尔斯于1948年被杜鲁门总统排挤卸任主席。但他没有辞职，而是选择 留任理事。杜鲁门虽替换了他的主席职位，却邀请其继续留在理事会，部分原因是埃克尔斯深受市场尊重，另一部 分则是总统深知其无权强制埃克尔斯离职。埃克尔斯选择留任以捍卫央行独立性。" 首位是美联储首任主席查尔斯・哈姆林。他于1914年上任，1916年任期届满后，仍以理事会成员身份留任长达二十 年。 Reid表示："作为职业公务员，哈姆林的动机源于对机构的忠诚，他相信使命远比头衔重要。第二位——也更具参 考意义的先例是马里纳・埃克尔斯。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普上周末期间表示已确定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者人选，这令美联储成为了近 期市场的关注焦点。周二，特朗普进一步指出，计划在明年初公布提名人选。 对此，德意志银行周二指出，美联储主席在任期结束后，仍可继续履行其作为美联储理事的任命，鲍威尔可能面临 类似情况。 该行分析师Jim Reid表示："市场普遍认为，一旦主席任期结束，即便其作为理事的任期仍有多年剩余，也会彻底退 出美联储。这一观点符合传统惯例，但并无法律依据。" "这正是问题的有趣之处。鲍威尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts warn that the US dollar may face a triple blow in the coming weeks, exacerbating its seasonal weakness [2][7] Group 1: Factors Affecting the Dollar - The dollar may be negatively impacted by a US Supreme Court ruling declaring tariffs illegal and the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Federal Reserve Chairman [2][7] - If Japan raises interest rates this month, the yen could strengthen significantly against the dollar [2][10] - Deutsche Bank suggests that stronger economic data from other countries could also pressure the dollar as the year ends [2][7] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - December has historically been the worst month for the dollar, as traders often sell dollars to balance returns from other US assets [4][9] - Analysts predict that the dollar could decline by approximately 2% from current levels, potentially returning to third-quarter lows [4][9] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen by 1.5% this quarter, continuing a nearly 1% increase from July to September [5][9] Group 3: Implications of Potential Fed Leadership - The market anticipates that Hassett's leadership at the Federal Reserve could lead to a more dovish policy stance, increasing expectations for rate cuts next year [5][9] - If Hassett is appointed, it could push the dollar to fall below the four-year low of 1.19 against the euro [5][9]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通分析师表示，欧洲银行股正处在"完美的环境"中，其上涨势头预计将持 续。 以基亚恩·阿布侯赛因为首的分析师在周二的一份报告中写道："展望2026年，我们对欧洲银行股维持积 极看法，并再次确认这一立场。"他们列举的理由包括经济改善、以及利率、通胀和失业率的稳定。他 们表示，盈利增长和股票回购也支撑了这一前景。 欧洲银行股有望实现连续第13个季度上涨，并且是今年以来该地区表现最佳的板块。斯托克600银行指 数上涨了55%，而更广泛基准指数的涨幅为13%。法国兴业银行、德国商业银行、西班牙桑坦德银行、 西班牙对外银行和西班牙Unicaja Banco的股价在2025年均实现翻倍或以上的涨幅。 分析师指出，与其他行业相比，欧洲银行股仍有33%的折价，并且有进一步上涨的空间。这些银行资本 状况强劲，并且预计从2025年到2027年每年利润将增长约6%。 分析师看好的首选股包括巴克莱银行(BCS.US)、国民西敏寺银行集团、德意志银行(DB.US)、法国兴业 银行、西班牙凯克萨银行、渣打银行和奥地利第一储蓄银行。 ...

Group 1: Core Views on Gold Prices - Bank of America sets a target price of $5,000 per ounce for gold, citing the ongoing expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and related macro policies as key support for gold prices, which are expected to continue rising until 2026 unless fundamental drivers change [1] - Goldman Sachs expresses an unprecedented bullish stance on gold, predicting prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by central bank gold purchases and anticipated Fed rate cuts of 75 basis points in 2026, with 70% of surveyed investors believing in a continued upward trend [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts a more optimistic scenario, suggesting gold prices could peak at $4,950 per ounce by 2026, with a baseline estimate of $4,450 per ounce, driven by strong demand from central banks and ETFs, while cautioning about potential pressures from stock market corrections and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Market Predictions and Factors - Morgan Stanley's commodity strategy team expects gold prices to peak at $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, highlighting gold as the top commodity choice for the coming year, supported by a reversal in ETF fund flows and increased central bank purchases [2] - HSBC takes a more cautious view, predicting gold prices will fluctuate between $3,600 and $4,400 per ounce in 2026, noting potential increases in gold supply and a slowdown in central bank purchases, which may temper price gains [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Trends - GF Futures notes that the U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges from government shutdowns and trade tensions, while central banks are increasing gold holdings, suggesting a potential return to a bull market for precious metals similar to the 1970s [5] - The report indicates that after reaching new highs, gold prices may experience a 2-3 month consolidation period, with current market liquidity influenced by U.S. government actions and Fed signals, leading to potential price corrections [5]

格隆汇12月1日｜德意志银行将亚德诺的目标价从250美元上调至265美元，维持"持有"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index ended November nearly flat, but signs of recovery are emerging as volatility decreases and market breadth improves [1] - Market breadth, measured by the five-day average of advancing and declining stocks in the S&P 500, rebounded from a low of -150 to around +150 before Thanksgiving, indicating a significant shift in market participation [1] - The "volatility panic index" is currently around 5, slightly above its three-year average and significantly lower than its peak earlier in November [1] Group 2: Systematic Strategies and Positioning - Approximately $16 billion in S&P 500-related sell-offs occurred over the past month, exacerbating previous market declines [3] - Following the market's digestion of this risk-off phase, the expectation for the upcoming month has shifted to a slight net buying scenario of about $4.7 billion [3] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced significant gains after a period of volatility, with the Dow Jones up 3.18%, S&P 500 up 3.73%, and Nasdaq up 4.91% [3] Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Multiple top investment banks have released forecasts for the S&P 500 index for the end of 2026, with a consensus that the index will continue to rise due to AI investment trends, a shift to accommodative monetary policy, and broadening profit growth [4] - JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank set ambitious targets for the S&P 500, with JPMorgan forecasting a target of 7,500 points, potentially exceeding 8,000 points if the Fed continues to lower interest rates [4][5] - Deutsche Bank predicts a 14% increase in earnings per share for the S&P 500 next year, driven by AI's growth potential extending beyond major tech stocks to other sectors [5][6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Analysts from Morgan Stanley express optimism about sectors such as consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, industrials, and small-cap stocks, anticipating that the recent market sell-off is nearing its end [6] - UBS forecasts that the AI-driven market rally will persist until 2026, with a target of 7,500 points for the S&P 500, supported by strong corporate earnings growth [6] - Barclays raised its 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,400 points, citing strong performance from large tech stocks despite a sluggish macroeconomic growth environment [7]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank reported a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for Q3 2025, but faced challenges with rising expenses and mixed performance across its business segments [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 earnings attributable to shareholders were €1.56 billion ($1.82 billion), up 7% year over year [2]. - Profit before tax reached a record €2.4 billion ($2.8 billion), an 8% increase from the previous year, with a 34% increase when excluding prior-year litigation provisions [3]. - Net revenues were €8 billion ($9.4 billion), reflecting a 7.2% year-over-year growth [4]. - Non-interest expenses rose to €5.2 billion ($6 billion), a 9.2% increase from the prior year [4]. - Provision for credit losses decreased to €417 million ($486 million), down 15.5% year over year [4]. Segment Performance - Corporate Bank revenues were €1.8 billion ($2.1 billion), down 1.4% year over year due to declines in Institutional Client Services and Business Banking [5]. - Investment Bank revenues increased to €2.9 billion ($3.5 billion), an 18% rise driven by growth in Fixed Income and Currencies, and Equity Origination & Advisory [5]. - Private Bank revenues were €2.4 billion ($2.8 billion), up 4.1% year over year [6]. - Asset Management revenues rose to €734 million ($855.5 million), an 11.2% increase due to higher performance and transaction fees [6]. - Corporate & Other segment reported revenues of €99 million ($115.4 million), down 36.9% from the prior year [6]. Capital Position - Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio improved to 14.5% as of September 30, 2025, up from 13.8% a year ago [7]. - The leverage ratio remained stable at 4.6% on a fully loaded basis [7]. 2025 Outlook - Deutsche Bank aims for €32 billion in revenues for 2025, aligning with a CAGR target of 5.5-6.5% [9]. - Total costs are expected to be €20 billion, with provisions normalizing to €350-400 million per quarter [9][10]. - The post-tax return on average tangible equity is projected to exceed 10%, with a cost/income ratio below 65% [10]. Market Sentiment - There has been an upward trend in estimates for Deutsche Bank, indicating positive market sentiment [11][13]. - The stock has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting expectations for above-average returns in the coming months [13].

Core Industry Insights - Business restructuring efforts by banks globally are expected to increase expenses in the short term but drive long-term growth [1] - The Zacks Foreign Banks Industry is experiencing uneven economic recovery, impacting revenue growth, but declining interest rates are anticipated to support top-line performance [1][5] - The Zacks Foreign Banks Industry currently ranks 80, placing it in the top 33% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating positive prospects [7][8] Industry Trends - Continuous restructuring initiatives are being undertaken by foreign banks to improve efficiency, focusing on core businesses and profitable markets [4] - Gradually declining interest rates are expected to benefit foreign banks' net interest income (NII) and margins, leading to improved loan demand and revenue growth [5] - The uneven global economic recovery post-COVID-19 is affecting banks' profitability, particularly in regions still struggling with economic growth [6] Company-Specific Developments HSBC Holdings - HSBC has $3.23 trillion in assets as of September 30, 2025, and is focusing on expanding operations in Asia, particularly in wealth management [21] - The bank plans to redeploy $1.5 billion from non-core activities into its core strategy, winding down non-core operations in various regions [24] - HSBC shares have risen 19.2% on the NYSE in the past six months, with a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [27] Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) - MUFG is undertaking various inorganic growth efforts and restructuring initiatives, including acquiring overseas securities subsidiaries [30][31] - The company aims to diversify its income sources and reduce reliance on traditional net interest income by expanding wealth management and corporate investment banking [34] - MUFG shares have gained 15.2% on the NYSE in the past six months, with a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [35] Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft - Deutsche Bank has seen a CAGR of 5.8% in net revenues over the past three years, with a focus on stable businesses like private banking and asset management [39] - The bank's new multi-year strategy aims for stronger revenue momentum and improved cost discipline through 2028 [41] - Deutsche Bank shares have gained 27.8% on the NYSE in the past six months, currently holding a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [42]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline after reaching a near two-week high, as investors assess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with market bets on rate cuts increasing significantly [1][6]. Market Performance - Spot gold fell by 0.1%, trading around $4158 [2]. - Since hitting a record high of $4381.21 on October 20, gold has retreated approximately 5% but remains above the critical $4000 level [4]. Analyst Insights - Carsten Menke from Julius Baer expects the consolidation in gold prices to continue, as the effects of the previous correction have not been fully digested [4]. - Factors supporting gold prices include a slowing U.S. economy leading to lower interest rates, a weak dollar, ongoing safe-haven demand, and strong central bank purchases [4]. Federal Reserve Signals - The Federal Reserve has sent mixed signals regarding the timing and extent of rate cuts, increasing demand for hedging in overnight interest rate-related options and derivatives [4]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 85%, up from 30% a week prior, according to CME FedWatch data [6]. Future Price Predictions - Bank of America projects a target price of $5000 per ounce for gold, indicating a potential increase of 19% from current levels, driven by persistent fundamental forces [8]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates a price of $4900 per ounce by the end of next year, reflecting a 17% increase [9]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts gold could reach $4950 per ounce by 2026, suggesting an 18% upside potential [13]. - HSBC offers a more moderate outlook, predicting gold prices will fluctuate between $3600 and $4400 per ounce by 2026, with the upper limit indicating a 5% increase [15]. Demand Drivers - Central bank purchases are expected to remain strong, particularly as countries seek to diversify reserves in light of geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The anticipated global rate cuts are expected to enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [11].

Core Points - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) released the 2025 Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) list, with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) moving from bucket 2 to bucket 3, becoming the first Chinese bank in this category [1][3] - The total number of G-SIBs remains at 29, unchanged from the 2024 list, but there have been adjustments in the bucket allocations of some banks [3] - The adjustments in bank classifications are primarily influenced by changes in their business activities, with the "complexity" metric having the most significant impact on scoring changes [3] Bucket Allocations - Bucket 5 (3.50%): Empty - Bucket 4 (2.50%): JP Morgan Chase - Bucket 3 (2.00%): Bank of America, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Citigroup, HSBC [2] - Bucket 2 (1.50%): Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, among others [2] - Bucket 1 (1.0096%): Bank of Communications, Deutsche Bank, and others [2] Future Implications - Higher capital buffer requirements for banks that move up in classification will take effect starting January 1, 2027 [3] - Fitch Ratings had predicted the rise of ICBC to bucket 3, while other Chinese banks are expected to remain on the G-SIBs list [3]