Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences, Inc. is set to report its Q1 2025 results, with sales and earnings estimates at $6.83 billion and $1.73 per share, respectively, reflecting a positive trend in earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 [1][4]. Financial Performance - The earnings surprise history shows Gilead has consistently beaten estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 19.47% [2][3]. - The current earnings ESP for Gilead is +3.07%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4]. Factors Influencing Q1 Results - Gilead's HIV franchise, particularly Biktarvy and Descovy, has been a significant driver of revenue, with estimated sales of $3.2 billion and $479 million, respectively [6][8]. - The new Medicare Part D model may have negatively impacted sales due to required discounts for Medicare patients [7]. - The Liver Disease portfolio is expected to benefit from increased demand for viral hepatitis medicines, with new drug Livdelzi contributing positively [9][12]. - Sales from Cell Therapy products are anticipated to decline due to competitive pressures, with estimates at $491 million [10]. - Trodelvy is expected to show strong demand, with sales estimates of $354 million [11]. Recent Developments - Gilead's application for lenacapavir is under review in the U.S. and EU, with a target action date set for June 19, 2025 [12]. - The company has received conditional marketing authorization for seladelpar in the EU [12]. Market Performance - Gilead's shares have increased by 14.4% year-to-date, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [13][14]. - The current price/earnings ratio is 13.13x forward earnings, higher than its historical mean but lower than the large-cap pharma industry average [16]. Investment Thesis - Gilead's strong HIV portfolio and ongoing innovation efforts are viewed positively, although there may be slight pressure on HIV sales in 2025 [18]. - The oncology portfolio, including Trodelvy, is diversifying the business, but the Cell Therapy franchise faces competitive challenges [19]. - Strategic deals and collaborations, such as with Merck, are seen as encouraging for future growth [20].

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) are prominent biotechnology companies with diverse portfolios and global reach, each presenting unique investment opportunities and challenges [1][2][3]. Gilead Sciences (GILD) - Gilead is a leader in the HIV treatment market, with its flagship drug Biktarvy being the most prescribed regimen for HIV-1 infection, maintaining a growing market share [4]. - The company’s prevention drug, Descovy, holds over 40% market share in the U.S. for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) [4]. - Late-stage studies for lenacapavir, a potential twice-yearly HIV prevention treatment, could significantly enhance Gilead's HIV portfolio [5]. - Gilead's oncology segment includes the successful breast cancer drug Trodelvy, which is undergoing further label expansion studies [6]. - The liver disease portfolio has been bolstered by the FDA approval of seladelpar for primary biliary cholangitis, enhancing Gilead's offerings in this area [7]. - As of December 31, 2024, Gilead's total debt-to-total-capital ratio was 59%, with $10 billion in cash and long-term debt of $25 billion [8]. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - BMY's Growth Portfolio, including drugs like Reblozyl and Opdualag, has stabilized revenue amidst generic competition, with Reblozyl showing strong performance [9][10]. - Opdivo continues to gain momentum with consistent label expansions, and the recent FDA approval for subcutaneous use is expected to enhance its immuno-oncology franchise [11]. - BMY has made strategic acquisitions to expand its portfolio, including the recent approval of Cobenfy for schizophrenia, validating its acquisition strategy [12]. - Despite the growth from newer drugs, BMY faces challenges from generic competition affecting legacy drugs, which significantly impact revenue [13]. - As of December 31, 2024, BMY's total debt-to-total-capital ratio was 75.2%, with cash and equivalents of $10.3 billion and long-term debt of $47.6 billion [14]. Financial Estimates and Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GILD's 2025 sales indicates a slight decrease of 0.39%, while EPS is expected to increase by 70.13% [15]. - In contrast, BMY's 2025 sales are projected to decrease by 5.11%, but EPS is anticipated to rise by 489.57% [18]. - GILD has outperformed BMY in price performance, with a gain of 15.2% compared to BMY's loss of 9.6% year-to-date [22]. - Valuation metrics show GILD trading at a forward P/E ratio of 13.23, higher than BMY's 7.61 [22]. - BMY offers a higher dividend yield of 4.83% compared to GILD's 2.97% [24]. Investment Outlook - Gilead's innovation in its HIV portfolio and potential approval of lenacapavir for HIV prevention are seen as strong growth catalysts [25]. - BMY's efforts to counteract generic competition are noted, but the outlook for 2025 appears challenging [26]. - Overall, GILD is considered a more favorable investment option at present due to its solid fundamentals and growth potential despite its higher valuation [26].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Biopharma in North America - **Market Analysis**: The latest weekly Total Prescription (TRx) year-over-year (YoY) growth for the week ending March 28, 2025, was +2.1%, a decrease from +2.5% the previous week and +3.1% over the past 12 weeks [1][2] Core Insights - **TRx Growth**: For the week ended March 28, the US total market weekly TRx YoY change was +2.1%, compared to +0.4% a year ago. The rolling 4-week TRx YoY was +2.9%, and the rolling 12-week TRx YoY was +3.1% [2] - **Extended Unit Growth**: Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +0.7%, which is below the TRx YoY growth [2] - **Sequential Growth**: Sequential weekly TRx growth was -1.8%, compared to -1.5% the week before [2] Company-Specific Developments - **Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)**: - Cobenfy, approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024, had approximately 1,570 scripts for the week, up from ~1,440 the previous week. To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at ~2-3 times the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches [3] - The consensus estimate for Cobenfy has declined to $160 million from $196 million, implying ~125K TRx are required to meet this estimate [3] - **Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)**: - Journavx, approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025, recorded approximately 2,230 scripts for the week, up from ~1,760 the previous week. To achieve the 2025 sales estimate of $87 million, approximately 229K and 441K total scripts are needed for 14-day and 7-day script durations, respectively [4] Competitive Landscape - **Biosimilars**: The TRx share chart for Stelara biosimilars was added, with Amgen's Wezlana launched on January 17, 2025, and Teva/Alvotech's Selarsdi launched on February 21, 2025 [5] - **Launch Comparisons**: A comparison chart for Descovy vs. Apretude was added, with anticipation for FDA approval of GILD's Lenacapavir [8] Seasonal Trends - **Vaccine Tracking**: Seasonal respiratory vaccine tracking exhibits were added, noting that RSV vaccine volumes are tracking ~65% below last year's levels, and COVID vaccine volumes are also down year-over-year [9] Notable Drug Performance - **Key Products**: - Mounjaro and Zepbound from Eli Lilly are being tracked, with Mounjaro showing significant growth [10] - The oral psoriasis market is being monitored, particularly BMY's Sotyktu launch against AMGN's Otezla [10] Pricing and Market Dynamics - **Immunology Pricing Analysis**: Updated charts for 4Q24 show how volume from additional indications impacts price per script for various drugs [11] - **Biosimilar Adoption**: Comprehensive analysis of biosimilar adoption across various branded drugs was presented [12] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: The IQVIA databases differentiate between prescription and sales trends, with TRx representing total prescriptions dispensed, including refills [27] - **Sales Dynamics**: The report emphasizes that IQVIA sales dollars reflect list prices and do not account for rebates or discounts, indicating a need for careful interpretation of sales data [43] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting industry trends, company-specific developments, and competitive dynamics within the biopharma sector.

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences is showing resilience in its stock performance compared to broader market indices, with upcoming earnings expected to demonstrate significant growth in EPS and stable revenue growth [1][2]. Company Performance - Gilead Sciences' stock closed at $112.39, reflecting a +0.45% change, outperforming the S&P 500, which fell by 4.84% [1]. - Over the past month, Gilead's shares have decreased by 3.08%, better than the Medical sector's decline of 4.6% and the S&P 500's drop of 4.7% [1]. Earnings Forecast - The company is set to release its earnings report on April 24, 2025, with an expected EPS of $1.73, indicating a 231.06% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - Revenue is projected at $6.8 billion, reflecting a 1.67% increase year-over-year [2]. Annual Estimates - For the annual period, earnings are anticipated to be $7.87 per share, representing a +70.35% change, while revenue is expected to be $28.56 billion, showing a slight decrease of -0.67% from the previous year [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Gilead Sciences indicate positive sentiment regarding the company's business operations and profit generation capabilities [4]. - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Gilead Sciences as 2 (Buy), suggesting favorable analyst outlook [6]. Valuation Metrics - Gilead Sciences has a Forward P/E ratio of 14.22, which is lower than the industry average of 17.83, indicating a potential undervaluation [7]. - The company also has a PEG ratio of 0.73, compared to the industry average of 1.43, suggesting that Gilead's stock may be undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth [7]. Industry Context - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, to which Gilead belongs, ranks in the top 31% of all industries, indicating strong performance relative to peers [8].

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences is set to report its financial results on April 24, 2025, with significant expected growth in earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to the previous year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Gilead Sciences' stock closed at $111.88, reflecting a +0.54% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.67% [1] - The company is forecasted to report an EPS of $1.73, representing a 231.06% increase year-over-year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $6.8 billion, indicating a 1.67% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Full-year estimates project earnings of $7.87 per share and revenue of $28.56 billion, showing year-over-year changes of +70.35% and -0.67%, respectively [3] Analyst Projections - Recent shifts in analyst projections for Gilead Sciences are important indicators of changing business trends, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable outlook [4] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has increased by 0.16% over the last 30 days, and Gilead Sciences currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [6] Valuation Metrics - Gilead Sciences has a Forward P/E ratio of 14.14, which is lower than the industry average of 17.2, indicating a potential undervaluation [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.73, compared to the industry average of 1.41, suggesting that Gilead may be undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth [7] Industry Context - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which includes Gilead Sciences, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 72, placing it in the top 29% of over 250 industries [8] - Strong industry rankings correlate with better stock performance, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street analysts are showing renewed confidence in the healthcare sector, particularly with Gilead Sciences, indicating a potential shift in sentiment and highlighting the sector as a safe haven for investors [1][5]. Gilead Sciences - J.P. Morgan upgraded Gilead Sciences, marking a pivotal endorsement and signaling optimism in the company's valuation and the broader healthcare sector [5]. - Gilead's stock has outperformed the S&P 500 by 27% over the past quarter, trading at 93% of its 52-week high, which has attracted institutional interest [4][7]. - Analysts forecast a 12-month price target of $105.12 for Gilead, with a potential upside to $130, representing a 16.1% increase from current levels [4][7]. Pfizer Inc. - Pfizer is viewed as a value-based, defensive opportunity, trading at 80% of its 52-week high, with a 12-month price forecast of $31.92, indicating a 30.17% upside [9][10]. - Analysts project a significant increase in Pfizer's third-quarter EPS to $1.00, a 51.5% rise from the current 66-cent EPS, supporting the bullish outlook [10]. - Pfizer offers a 6.8% annual dividend yield, providing stability and income in a volatile market [11]. Hims & Hers Health Inc. - Hims & Hers is positioned as a contrarian growth play, with a 12-month price forecast of $37.31, suggesting a 20.20% upside [12]. - The stock has attracted $739 million of institutional capital over the past quarter, indicating growing interest despite trading at only 38% of its 52-week high [13]. - Hims & Hers trades at a high P/E ratio of 66.1, reflecting market expectations for future outperformance in the digital healthcare space [14].

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences (GILD) is currently viewed as a more attractive undervalued stock option compared to Amgen (AMGN) based on various financial metrics and earnings outlook [1][7]. Valuation Metrics - GILD has a forward P/E ratio of 14.24, while AMGN's forward P/E is 15.10, indicating GILD may be undervalued relative to AMGN [5]. - The PEG ratio for GILD is 0.73, suggesting a favorable valuation when considering expected earnings growth, compared to AMGN's PEG ratio of 2.60 [5]. - GILD's P/B ratio stands at 7.26, significantly lower than AMGN's P/B ratio of 28.50, further supporting GILD's valuation as more attractive [6]. Earnings Outlook - GILD is experiencing an improving earnings outlook, which enhances its position in the Zacks Rank model, indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates [3][7].

Company Performance - Gilead Sciences (GILD) has returned 16.8% year-to-date, outperforming the average gain of 3.6% for Medical stocks [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GILD's full-year earnings has increased by 4.2% over the past quarter, indicating improved analyst sentiment and earnings outlook [3] - Gilead Sciences is part of the Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which has gained an average of 4.3% this year, further highlighting GILD's strong performance [5] Industry Context - The Medical sector includes 1011 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 5, reflecting the average performance of stocks within this sector [2] - The Medical - Instruments industry, which includes AngioDynamics (ANGO), has seen a decline of -2.1% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with Gilead's performance [6] - AngioDynamics has returned 11.1% year-to-date and has a consensus EPS estimate that increased by 9% over the past three months, also holding a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4][5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Biopharma in North America - **Market Analysis**: Comprehensive analysis of the US drug market conducted by IQVIA Rx Key Market Metrics - **Total Prescription Year-over-Year (YoY) Growth**: - Latest weekly growth (week ending March 14, 2025) was +4.0%, up from +3.0% the previous week and +2.3% over the past 12 weeks [1][2] - For the week ended March 14, the total market weekly TRx YoY change was +4.0% compared to +1.2% a year ago [2] - Rolling 4-week TRx YoY was +3.1% and rolling 12-week TRx YoY was +2.3% [2] - Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +2.2%, which is below the TRx YoY growth [2] Company-Specific Insights - **Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)**: - Cobenfy, approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024, had approximately 1,340 scripts for the week, an increase from ~1,300 the previous week [3] - To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at ~2-3x the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches, with an estimated requirement of ~125K TRx to reach consensus estimates of $160 million [3] - **Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)**: - Journavx, approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025, recorded ~1,150 scripts for the week, up from ~610 the previous week [4] - To achieve a sales estimate of $87 million, approximately 229K and 441K total scripts are needed for 14-day and 7-day script durations, respectively [4] Competitive Landscape - **Biosimilars**: - Updates on biosimilar launches including Amgen's Wezlana and Teva's Selarsdi, with respective launch dates of January 17, 2025, and February 21, 2025 [5] - **Seasonal Vaccines**: - RSV vaccine volumes are tracking ~65% below last year's levels, while COVID vaccine volumes are also down year-over-year [9] Notable Drug Performance - **Eli Lilly (LLY)**: - Mounjaro and Zepbound launches are being tracked, with Mounjaro showing significant growth [10] - **AbbVie**: - Humira is experiencing a decline of -41% YoY, while Rinvoq and Skyrizi are showing growth rates of 43% and 49% respectively [22][23] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - The analysis indicates that extended unit data trends were more positive than prescription trends, suggesting a shift towards longer-duration prescriptions [33] - **Sales Trends**: - The IQVIA databases differentiate between prescription and sales trends, with TRx representing total prescriptions dispensed including refills [29] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the biopharma industry, specific company performances, and market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences is experiencing a mixed performance in the stock market, with upcoming earnings expected to show significant growth in EPS while revenue remains relatively stable compared to the previous year [1][3][4]. Company Performance - Gilead Sciences closed at $106.67, reflecting a decrease of -0.38% from the previous day, underperforming against the S&P 500, which gained 1.77% [1] - Over the past month, Gilead's shares have declined by 2.61%, which is a smaller loss compared to the Medical sector's decline of 1.17% and the S&P 500's loss of 5.73% [2] Earnings Expectations - The company is anticipated to report an EPS of $1.73, representing a substantial increase of 231.06% from the same quarter last year [3] - Revenue is projected to be $6.78 billion, reflecting a modest increase of 1.36% year-over-year [3] - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $7.87 per share and revenue of $28.55 billion, indicating a year-over-year earnings growth of 70.35% but a slight revenue decline of -0.7% [4] Analyst Estimates and Ratings - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Gilead Sciences are crucial as they indicate short-term business trends and analysts' confidence in the company's performance [5] - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Gilead Sciences as 2 (Buy), with a 0.05% increase in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [7] Valuation Metrics - Gilead Sciences has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.61, which is lower than the industry average of 18.52, suggesting that the stock is trading at a discount [8] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 0.7, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.51, indicating favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [9] Industry Context - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which includes Gilead Sciences, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 74, placing it in the top 30% of over 250 industries [10]