证券研究报告 | 2025年05月21日 海外制药企业2025Q1业绩回顾 ——美国药品价格改革叠加不确定的宏观环境 行业研究 · 行业专题 医药生物 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：马千里 010-88005445 maqianli@guosen.com.cn S0980521070001 证券分析师：陈曦炳 0755-81982939 chenxibing@guosen.com.cn S0980521120001 证券分析师：彭思宇 0755-81982723 pengsiyu@guosen.com.cn S0980521060003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 ◼ Pharma收入端增长整体有所放缓：2025Q1，礼来及诺和诺德在GLP-1类药物驱动下，收入端分别+45%/+18%，其中诺和诺德由于美 国compounded GLP-1药物影响，销售低于预期并下调全年收入指引；诺华、艾伯维、阿斯利康、赛诺菲分别依靠诺欣妥/可善挺、 Skyrizi/Rinvoq、Farxiga/Enhertu、Dupixent等核心品种 ...

Core Insights - Gilead Sciences is focused on executing its strategy to drive top-line growth while maintaining operational discipline and advancing its pipeline [2] Group 1: Company Operations - Gilead is managing its operations amidst changing macroeconomic conditions, including potential impacts from MFN, tariffs, and IRA [2] - The company has a small team dedicated to scenario planning to navigate the fluid market environment [2]

Summary of Gilead's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Gilead Sciences - **Industry**: Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology Key Points and Arguments Macro Environment and Strategy - Gilead is focused on delivering its strategy, emphasizing top-line growth and operational discipline despite macroeconomic uncertainties [2][3] - The company is managing scenario planning with a small team to navigate the fluid environment [3][6] Product Pipeline and Launches - Gilead has several product launches in progress, including: - **Libdelzi** launched in August [4] - **Lenacapavir** for prevention, with a PDUFA date of June 19 [4][32] - Upcoming data for needle cell therapy expected by year-end [4] - The company is well-prepared with an average effective tax rate of about 20% over the last four years, benefiting from its IP being primarily in the US [5] Drug Pricing and Market Access - Gilead is actively considering the implications of potential drug pricing reforms, including the Most Favored Nation (MFN) policy and its impact on pricing strategies [10][17] - The company believes that the value of its medicines will be recognized, and it is committed to ensuring access to its products [15][16] HIV Business Segment - The HIV segment constitutes approximately two-thirds of Gilead's total revenues [20] - Gilead is concerned about potential funding cuts at the CDC and HHS, which could impact HIV surveillance and treatment efforts [21][22] - The company is focused on education and advocacy to ensure lawmakers understand the importance of CDC funding for HIV initiatives [21] Lenacapavir Launch Strategy - Lenacapavir is expected to redefine HIV prevention with a dosing schedule of every six months, showing over 96% efficacy in trials [29][30] - Gilead anticipates achieving approximately 75% access within six months post-launch and 90% by the end of the first year [34] - The company is exploring flexible distribution options, including specialty pharmacies and alternate sites of care [49][50] Competitive Landscape - Gilead is aware of the competitive landscape, particularly regarding the Glaxo product, and is leveraging learnings from previous launches to optimize its strategy [55][56] - The company aims to capture market share from existing PrEP users and expand awareness among high-risk populations [65][66] Biktarvy Performance - Biktarvy is projected to generate around $14 billion in revenue, accounting for nearly 50% of Gilead's total revenues [68] - The product has over 51% market share in the integrase inhibitor market and continues to grow despite challenges from Part D redesign [70][71] - Gilead believes there is still significant growth potential for Biktarvy, especially as it continues to address the needs of patients not currently virologically suppressed [75] Additional Important Insights - Gilead emphasizes the importance of prevention in reducing new HIV cases and is committed to increasing awareness and education for at-risk populations [27][66] - The company is preparing for a switch strategy at the launch of Lenacapavir, targeting existing PrEP users while also focusing on expanding the market [62][65] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from Gilead's conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus, product pipeline, market dynamics, and competitive positioning in the pharmaceutical industry.

Core Viewpoint - Investing in dividend stocks requires attention to a company's underlying operations rather than just high yields, with AbbVie and Gilead Sciences being highlighted as strong candidates for income investors [1][2]. Group 1: AbbVie - AbbVie is recognized as a "Dividend King," having raised its payouts for 53 consecutive years, making it a strong consideration for income investors [4]. - The company is well-known for its immunology drugs, particularly Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which have shown unexpectedly rapid sales growth [5][6]. - Following the loss of patent exclusivity for Humira, AbbVie has successfully returned to top-line growth, with a revised 2027 sales guidance for Skyrizi and Rinvoq exceeding $31 billion, up from $27 billion [6]. - AbbVie has a robust pipeline with numerous programs that are expected to lead to further approvals and label expansions, supporting its strong business fundamentals [8]. - The forward yield for AbbVie is over 3.5%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.3%, indicating its potential as a long-term dividend stock [8]. Group 2: Gilead Sciences - Gilead Sciences is a leading drugmaker, particularly known for its dominance in the HIV market, with a revenue of $6.7 billion in the first quarter, despite flat overall sales due to lower Veklury sales [9]. - The HIV segment grew by 6% year-over-year, generating $4.6 billion, with Biktarvy being the top prescribed regimen in the U.S. [10]. - Gilead is diversifying its portfolio beyond HIV, with a focus on oncology, where over a third of its 58 pipeline programs are concentrated [12]. - The forward yield for Gilead is 3.2%, and the company has increased its dividends by nearly 84% over the past decade, making it an attractive option for long-term income-seeking investors [13].

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $6,667 million, a slight decrease of 0.3% compared to $6,686 million in Q1 2024[15] - Product sales amounted to $6,613 million in Q1 2025, down from $6,647 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of 0.5%[15] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $1,315 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of $4,170 million in Q1 2024[15] - Operating income for Q1 2025 was $2,237 million, compared to an operating loss of $4,322 million in the same period last year[15] - Basic earnings per share attributable to Gilead for Q1 2025 was $1.06, a recovery from a loss of $3.34 per share in Q1 2024[15] - Gilead's income before income taxes for Q1 2025 was $1,649 million, compared to a loss of $4,486 million in Q1 2024[86] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash provided by operating activities for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $1,757 million, down from $2,219 million in the same period of 2024[24] - Net cash used in investing activities was $415 million for Q1 2025, compared to $2,207 million in Q1 2024, indicating a reduction in cash outflow[24] - The company reported a net cash used in financing activities of $3,426 million for Q1 2025, an increase from $1,361 million in Q1 2024[24] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $7,926 million, up from $4,718 million at the end of Q1 2024[24] - Total cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period were $9,991 million, reflecting a strong liquidity position[24] Assets and Liabilities - Total current assets decreased to $16,901 million as of March 31, 2025, down from $19,173 million as of December 31, 2024[13] - Total assets decreased to $56,434 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $58,995 million as of December 31, 2024[13] - Long-term debt decreased to $22,146 million as of March 31, 2025, down from $24,896 million as of December 31, 2024[13] - As of March 31, 2025, total debt, net amounted to $24,952 million, a decrease from $26,710 million as of December 31, 2024[69] - The company repaid $1.75 billion of principal balance related to senior unsecured notes due at maturity in February 2025[70] Research and Development - Research and development expenses decreased to $1,379 million in Q1 2025 from $1,520 million in Q1 2024, a reduction of approximately 9.3%[15] - A partial impairment charge of $2.4 billion was recorded for certain acquired in-process research and development assets during the three months ended March 31, 2024[38] - A partial impairment charge of $2.4 billion was recognized for the NSCLC IPR&D intangible asset due to a failed Phase 3 study[58] Legal and Regulatory Matters - The company intends to vigorously defend against various lawsuits, including those related to product liability involving approximately 22,000 active plaintiffs[79] - The company is involved in litigation with generic manufacturers regarding the exclusivity of its products, which could significantly impact revenues[73] - The company has approximately $220 million in accruals for legal matters as of March 31, 2025, down from $242 million as of December 31, 2024[72] - A settlement agreement was reached in April 2025 with the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York related to a government investigation[80] - The company accrued approximately $200 million for a settlement with the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York in April 2025[72] Segment Performance - Product sales in the HIV segment totaled $4,587 million for Q1 2025, up from $4,342 million in Q1 2024, representing an increase of 5.6%[29] - The company recognized $54 million in royalty, contract, and other revenues for Q1 2025, compared to $39 million in Q1 2024[29] Expenses - Selling and marketing expenses increased to $753 million in Q1 2025 from $743 million in Q1 2024, while general and administrative expenses decreased to $505 million from $632 million[89] - Gilead's total selling, general, and administrative expenses for Q1 2025 were $1,258 million, down from $1,375 million in Q1 2024[89] - Other (income) expense, net reported a loss of $328 million in Q1 2025, compared to a gain of $91 million in Q1 2024[68] Tax Matters - The effective tax rate for Q1 2025 was 20.2%, up from 7.0% in Q1 2024, primarily due to tax benefits from stock-based compensation and adjustments[86][87] - The company is currently under examination by the IRS for tax years 2019 to 2021, which may lead to disputes regarding tax deductions and income allocations[88] - Gilead's effective income tax rate in Q1 2024 was impacted by $3.9 billion of non-deductible acquired IPR&D expenses related to the acquisition of CymaBay[87] Other Financial Metrics - Unrealized losses related to equity securities amounted to $436 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $15 million in the same period of 2024[44] - The fair value of the contingent consideration liability related to the acquisition of MYR GmbH increased to $216 million as of March 31, 2025, from $206 million at the beginning of the period[36] - The total estimated fair value of senior unsecured notes was $21.886 billion as of March 31, 2025, down from $23.335 billion at the end of 2024[39] - The liability related to future royalties from the acquisition of Immunomedics, Inc. was approximately $0.9 billion as of March 31, 2025[40] Acquisitions and Investments - Gilead made a $250 million upfront payment to LEO Pharma for a strategic partnership to develop STAT6 programs, with potential additional milestone payments of up to $1.5 billion[54] - Gilead acquired approximately 15.2 million additional shares of Arcus for $320 million, increasing its stake to approximately 30%[55] - The acquisition of CymaBay Therapeutics, Inc. was completed for total consideration of $3.9 billion in March 2024[51] Subsequent Events - There were no subsequent events or transactions to disclose beyond those already mentioned in the financial statements[90]

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences, Inc. reported lower-than-expected first-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.81 and total revenues of $6.7 billion, both missing consensus estimates [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS of $1.81 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny, while the previous year reported a loss per share of $1.32 [1] - Total revenues of $6.7 billion were flat year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.8 billion [1] - Key drugs Biktarvy and Trodelvy missed sales expectations, leading to a decline in stock price post-announcement [2] Group 2: HIV Portfolio Strength - Gilead's HIV product sales contributed $4.6 billion in the first quarter, with Biktarvy sales increasing 7% year over year to $3.15 billion despite missing estimates [4] - Biktarvy holds over 51% market share in the U.S. treatment market, indicating strong momentum [5] - The pipeline candidate lenacapavir showed 100% efficacy for HIV prevention in women, with FDA priority review expected by June 19, 2025 [6][7] Group 3: Liver Disease Portfolio - FDA approval of seladelpar for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) strengthens Gilead's liver disease portfolio, with initial uptake being encouraging [8] Group 4: Oncology Business Challenges - Gilead's oncology portfolio faces competitive pressures, particularly in the Cell Therapy franchise and breast cancer drug Trodelvy, which saw lower-than-expected sales [10] - Potential launches of anito-cel and Trodelvy in 2026 may bolster the oncology business [11] Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - Gilead's shares have gained 13.6% year to date, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [12] - The stock trades at a price/earnings ratio of 12.80x forward earnings, lower than the large-cap pharma industry's average of 15.77x [15] - The bottom-line estimate for 2025 has slightly decreased to $7.91, while the estimate for 2026 has increased to $8.69 [16] Group 6: Strategic Outlook - Gilead's continuous innovation in the HIV portfolio and strategic acquisitions are seen as positive for long-term growth [19][20] - The company maintains a strong cash position of $7.9 billion as of March 31, 2025, supporting a sustainable dividend yield of 2.97% [21]

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences has experienced a decline in stock performance recently, and various factors, including earnings estimates and revenue growth, will influence its future stock trajectory [2][5][11]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - Gilead is projected to report earnings of $1.99 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1% [5]. - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is $7.91, indicating a significant year-over-year increase of 71.2% [5]. - For the next fiscal year, the consensus estimate is $8.39, representing a year-over-year growth of 6.1% [6]. - The Zacks Rank for Gilead is 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook based on recent earnings estimate revisions [7]. Revenue Growth Forecast - The consensus sales estimate for Gilead in the current quarter is $7 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 0.6% [11]. - Revenue estimates for the current and next fiscal years are $28.51 billion (a decrease of 0.8%) and $29.78 billion (an increase of 4.5%), respectively [11]. Last Reported Results and Surprise History - Gilead reported revenues of $6.67 billion in the last quarter, which is a year-over-year decline of 0.3% [12]. - The EPS for the last reported quarter was $1.81, compared to -$1.32 a year ago, with a revenue surprise of -2.46% and an EPS surprise of -0.55% [12]. - Over the last four quarters, Gilead has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and revenue estimates three times [13]. Valuation - Gilead's valuation metrics, including price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), are essential for assessing whether the stock is fairly valued [14][15]. - The Zacks Value Style Score for Gilead is graded B, indicating that the stock is trading at a discount compared to its peers [17].

Core Points - Gilead Sciences has agreed to pay $202 million to settle claims of using speaker programs to provide kickbacks to doctors for prescribing its HIV medications [1][2] - The funds were reportedly used for honoraria payments, meals, and travel expenses for doctors participating in these programs [1][3] - The U.S. Attorney's Office stated that Gilead unlawfully sought to increase sales of its HIV drugs through these kickbacks [2][3] Financial Implications - Gilead spent tens of millions of dollars on these speaker programs, including over $20 million specifically on speaking fees [3] - Additional costs included millions spent on meals, alcohol, and travel, all aimed at incentivizing doctors to prescribe Gilead's HIV drugs [3]

Core Insights - Gilead Sciences reported a mixed first quarter, with a revenue of $6.67 billion, remaining flat compared to the same quarter of 2024, leading to a decline in share price by over 2% [1][2][4] Revenue Performance - The revenue of $6.67 billion was attributed to declines in sales of the COVID drug Veklury and oncology products, which were offset by improvements in liver disease and HIV medications [2] - Analysts had projected revenue of $6.78 billion, indicating that Gilead's performance fell short of expectations [4] Profitability - Gilead achieved a non-GAAP net income of just under $2.3 billion, or $1.81 per share, a significant turnaround from a loss of $1.6 billion in the previous year [3] - The first quarter results were impacted by the acquisition of CymaBay Therapeutics and a $2.4 billion impairment related to a previous deal with Immunomedics [3] Guidance Adjustments - Gilead revised its full-year earnings per share guidance for 2025 to a range of $5.65 to $6.05, down from the previous forecast of $5.95 to $6.35, which disappointed some investors [5] - The adjusted profitability estimate remained unchanged at $7.70 to $8.10 per share, with revenue expectations still set at $28.2 billion to $28.6 billion [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences, Inc. reported disappointing first-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.81 and total revenues of $6.7 billion, both missing consensus estimates [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS of $1.81 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny, compared to a loss per share of $1.32 in the same quarter last year [1] - Total revenues of $6.7 billion were flat year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.8 billion [1] - Total product sales decreased 1% year over year to $6.6 billion, while excluding Veklury, product sales increased 4% to $6.3 billion [3] Product Sales Breakdown - HIV product sales grew 6% year over year to $4.6 billion, exceeding both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and model estimate of $4.5 billion [3] - Biktarvy sales increased 7% year over year to $3.15 billion but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.2 billion [4] - Descovy sales surged 38% year over year to $586 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $479 million [5] - Liver Disease portfolio sales rose 3% to $758 million, driven by higher demand for HBV and HDV drugs [6] - Veklury sales plummeted 45% to $302 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $387 million [7] - Cell Therapy product sales decreased 3% to $464 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $491 million [7] Cost and Margin Analysis - Adjusted product gross margin slightly increased to 85.5% from 85.4% in the year-ago quarter [11] - Research and development expenses totaled $1.3 billion, down from $1.4 billion in the previous year [11] - SG&A expenses amounted to $1.2 billion, down from $1.3 billion [11] Dividend and Guidance - Gilead declared a quarterly dividend of $0.79 per share for Q2 2025, payable on June 27, 2025 [12] - The company reiterated its 2025 guidance, projecting product sales between $28.2 billion and $28.6 billion, with adjusted EPS anticipated in the range of $7.70-$8.10 [13] Pipeline Updates - The FDA accepted new drug application submissions for lenacapavir for HIV prevention, with a target action date of June 19, 2025 [14] - Gilead received conditional marketing authorization for seladelpar for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis [14] Overall Performance Assessment - Gilead's first-quarter results were disappointing, particularly due to a decline in oncology drugs affecting revenue growth [15] - Despite challenges, Biktarvy maintained its dominant position in the HIV market, and Descovy showed strong performance [15] - The potential approval of lenacapavir could further strengthen Gilead's HIV franchise amid increasing competition [16]