Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences (GILD) is currently viewed as a more attractive undervalued stock option compared to Amgen (AMGN) based on various financial metrics and earnings outlook [1][7]. Valuation Metrics - GILD has a forward P/E ratio of 14.24, while AMGN's forward P/E is 15.10, indicating GILD may be undervalued relative to AMGN [5]. - The PEG ratio for GILD is 0.73, suggesting a favorable valuation when considering expected earnings growth, compared to AMGN's PEG ratio of 2.60 [5]. - GILD's P/B ratio stands at 7.26, significantly lower than AMGN's P/B ratio of 28.50, further supporting GILD's valuation as more attractive [6]. Earnings Outlook - GILD is experiencing an improving earnings outlook, which enhances its position in the Zacks Rank model, indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates [3][7].

Company Performance - Gilead Sciences (GILD) has returned 16.8% year-to-date, outperforming the average gain of 3.6% for Medical stocks [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GILD's full-year earnings has increased by 4.2% over the past quarter, indicating improved analyst sentiment and earnings outlook [3] - Gilead Sciences is part of the Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which has gained an average of 4.3% this year, further highlighting GILD's strong performance [5] Industry Context - The Medical sector includes 1011 individual stocks and currently holds a Zacks Sector Rank of 5, reflecting the average performance of stocks within this sector [2] - The Medical - Instruments industry, which includes AngioDynamics (ANGO), has seen a decline of -2.1% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with Gilead's performance [6] - AngioDynamics has returned 11.1% year-to-date and has a consensus EPS estimate that increased by 9% over the past three months, also holding a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4][5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Biopharma in North America - **Market Analysis**: Comprehensive analysis of the US drug market conducted by IQVIA Rx Key Market Metrics - **Total Prescription Year-over-Year (YoY) Growth**: - Latest weekly growth (week ending March 14, 2025) was +4.0%, up from +3.0% the previous week and +2.3% over the past 12 weeks [1][2] - For the week ended March 14, the total market weekly TRx YoY change was +4.0% compared to +1.2% a year ago [2] - Rolling 4-week TRx YoY was +3.1% and rolling 12-week TRx YoY was +2.3% [2] - Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +2.2%, which is below the TRx YoY growth [2] Company-Specific Insights - **Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)**: - Cobenfy, approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024, had approximately 1,340 scripts for the week, an increase from ~1,300 the previous week [3] - To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at ~2-3x the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches, with an estimated requirement of ~125K TRx to reach consensus estimates of $160 million [3] - **Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)**: - Journavx, approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025, recorded ~1,150 scripts for the week, up from ~610 the previous week [4] - To achieve a sales estimate of $87 million, approximately 229K and 441K total scripts are needed for 14-day and 7-day script durations, respectively [4] Competitive Landscape - **Biosimilars**: - Updates on biosimilar launches including Amgen's Wezlana and Teva's Selarsdi, with respective launch dates of January 17, 2025, and February 21, 2025 [5] - **Seasonal Vaccines**: - RSV vaccine volumes are tracking ~65% below last year's levels, while COVID vaccine volumes are also down year-over-year [9] Notable Drug Performance - **Eli Lilly (LLY)**: - Mounjaro and Zepbound launches are being tracked, with Mounjaro showing significant growth [10] - **AbbVie**: - Humira is experiencing a decline of -41% YoY, while Rinvoq and Skyrizi are showing growth rates of 43% and 49% respectively [22][23] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - The analysis indicates that extended unit data trends were more positive than prescription trends, suggesting a shift towards longer-duration prescriptions [33] - **Sales Trends**: - The IQVIA databases differentiate between prescription and sales trends, with TRx representing total prescriptions dispensed including refills [29] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the biopharma industry, specific company performances, and market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences is experiencing a mixed performance in the stock market, with upcoming earnings expected to show significant growth in EPS while revenue remains relatively stable compared to the previous year [1][3][4]. Company Performance - Gilead Sciences closed at $106.67, reflecting a decrease of -0.38% from the previous day, underperforming against the S&P 500, which gained 1.77% [1] - Over the past month, Gilead's shares have declined by 2.61%, which is a smaller loss compared to the Medical sector's decline of 1.17% and the S&P 500's loss of 5.73% [2] Earnings Expectations - The company is anticipated to report an EPS of $1.73, representing a substantial increase of 231.06% from the same quarter last year [3] - Revenue is projected to be $6.78 billion, reflecting a modest increase of 1.36% year-over-year [3] - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $7.87 per share and revenue of $28.55 billion, indicating a year-over-year earnings growth of 70.35% but a slight revenue decline of -0.7% [4] Analyst Estimates and Ratings - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Gilead Sciences are crucial as they indicate short-term business trends and analysts' confidence in the company's performance [5] - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Gilead Sciences as 2 (Buy), with a 0.05% increase in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [7] Valuation Metrics - Gilead Sciences has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.61, which is lower than the industry average of 18.52, suggesting that the stock is trading at a discount [8] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 0.7, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.51, indicating favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [9] Industry Context - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which includes Gilead Sciences, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 74, placing it in the top 30% of over 250 industries [10]

Company Performance - Gilead Sciences (GILD) closed at $105.87, down 1.53% from the previous trading day, underperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.22% [1] - Over the past month, Gilead's shares have decreased by 0.13%, which is better than the Medical sector's loss of 0.63% and the S&P 500's loss of 7.48% [1] Earnings Forecast - Gilead is expected to report an EPS of $1.73, representing a significant growth of 231.06% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $6.78 billion, reflecting a 1.36% increase from the previous year [2] Annual Estimates - For the entire year, earnings are forecasted at $7.87 per share, indicating a growth of 70.35%, while revenue is expected to be $28.55 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.7% compared to the previous year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest a positive outlook for Gilead's business and profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Gilead Sciences has a Forward P/E ratio of 13.67, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 19.05 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.7, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.56, indicating a favorable valuation relative to projected earnings growth [6] Industry Context - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, which includes Gilead, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 75, placing it in the top 30% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that higher-ranked industries tend to outperform lower-ranked ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) faces potential challenges due to reported federal funding cuts for HIV prevention, impacting investor sentiment despite the company's strong market position in HIV treatments [1][2]. Company Overview - Gilead Sciences has a leading portfolio of HIV treatments, including two drugs for prevention: Descovy and Truvada [1]. - The company is seeking FDA approval for lenacapavir, which has shown promising efficacy in HIV prevention, particularly in cisgender women [5][6]. Market Position - Descovy holds over 40% market share in the U.S. PrEP market, indicating strong uptake among at-risk populations [4]. - GILD's shares have increased by 17.2% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 6.8% [3]. Competitive Landscape - GSK, another player in the HIV market, has seen a 13% growth in HIV sales in 2024, driven by demand for long-acting injectable medicines [11]. - The FDA has approved Apretude, a long-acting injectable form of PrEP, which adds to the competitive pressure on Gilead's offerings [9][10]. Future Prospects - The approval of lenacapavir is anticipated to strengthen Gilead's HIV franchise, as it requires administration only twice a year, offering a competitive edge over daily oral medications [7]. - The FDA has granted Priority Review for lenacapavir, with a target action date set for June 19, 2025 [6].

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets have experienced significant volatility, with major indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite in negative territory year to date, and the Nasdaq in a correction zone [1] - The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are also showing negative performance, with the latter in bear territory year to date [1] Economic Factors - Uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariffs and trade policies is affecting market sentiment, particularly in relation to the elevated inflation rate [2] - Signs of weakness in the labor market, lower-than-expected retail sales, and ongoing softness in the manufacturing sector are contributing to a dampened investor sentiment [3] - The Federal Reserve's unclear stance on interest rate adjustments is adding to market volatility and recession fears [3] Corporate Performance - Despite market headwinds, some large U.S. corporations (market cap > $100 billion) have achieved over 15% returns year to date [4] - Recommended stocks include Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), The Progressive Corp. (PGR), and GE Aerospace (GE), all of which have favorable Zacks Ranks [4][5] Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) - GILD reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and optimistic guidance for 2025, driven by strong growth in its HIV therapy, Biktarvy [7] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for GILD are -0.7% and 70.4% for the current year, with a current dividend yield of 2.81% [9] - GILD's stock is trading at a forward P/E of 14.27X, below industry and S&P 500 averages, with a return on equity (ROE) of 31.63% [11] The Progressive Corp. (PGR) - PGR is benefiting from higher premiums and a strong product portfolio, focusing on becoming a one-stop insurance destination [12] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for PGR are 16.5% and 7.7% for the current year, with a current dividend yield of 0.14% [14][15] - PGR's ROE stands at 33.79%, significantly higher than industry and S&P 500 averages [15] GE Aerospace - GE Aerospace is experiencing strong demand for its commercial engines and technologies, supported by rising defense budgets and positive airline dynamics [16] - The company raised its dividend by 28.6% and expects organic revenue growth in the low-double-digit range for 2025 [17] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for GE are -6.8% and 17.4% for the current year, with a current dividend yield of 0.71% [20][21] - The average short-term price target for GE indicates a potential increase of 14.2% from its last closing price, with a maximum upside of 29.9% [22]

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ:GILD) has experienced a significant decline in stock price due to potential funding cuts for domestic HIV prevention programs by the Trump administration, impacting the company's core business in HIV and AIDS treatments [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - GILD's stock is down 2.6% to $107.34, marking its lowest level since mid-February [1]. - The stock has pulled back from a nine-year high of $119.96 reached on March 10, now facing its seventh loss in eight sessions [2]. - Despite the recent decline, GILD remains up 46.2% year-over-year and 16.3% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: Options Activity - There has been a notable increase in put options activity, with 3,000 puts exchanged today, double the typical volume [2]. - The March 103 put option is the most popular, indicating bearish sentiment as new positions are being opened [2]. - GILD's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.95 ranks higher than 99% of readings from the past year, suggesting heightened bearish activity [3].

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) has shown strong stock performance, hitting a 52-week high and outperforming its industry and the S&P 500, driven by positive data and pipeline advancements [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - GILD's stock reached a 52-week high of $119.96 on March 10 and is currently trading at $111.44 [1]. - The stock has gained 5.5% in the past month, while the industry grew by only 1.2% [1]. Group 2: HIV Franchise - Gilead maintains a leading portfolio in HIV treatments, with over 50% market share in the U.S. as of Q4 [4]. - The flagship HIV therapy, Biktarvy, continues to drive sales growth [4]. - Descovy for PrEP has over 40% market share in the U.S. [5]. - The pipeline candidate lenacapavir shows 100% efficacy for HIV prevention in cisgender women, with potential for twice-yearly administration [5][6]. Group 3: New Drug Approvals - The FDA granted accelerated approval to seladelpar for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), enhancing Gilead's liver disease portfolio [9][10]. - Gilead's acquisition of CymaBay Therapeutics for $4.3 billion adds seladelpar to its pipeline [10]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - Gilead formed a strategic partnership with LEO Pharma to enhance its inflammation research portfolio [11]. - A collaboration with Terray Therapeutics aims to develop novel small-molecule therapies [11]. Group 5: Oncology Portfolio - The breast cancer drug Trodelvy has performed well, receiving Breakthrough Therapy Designation for small cell lung cancer [12]. - However, setbacks occurred with late-stage studies for Trodelvy in urothelial cancer and non-small cell lung cancer [13]. Group 6: Cell Therapy Challenges - Gilead's Cell Therapy franchise, including Yescarta and Tecartus, faces competitive pressures expected to continue into 2025 [14]. Group 7: Financial Outlook - GILD's shares trade at a price/earnings ratio of 14.01x forward earnings, lower than the industry average of 16.60x [15]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased, indicating positive revisions [16]. - The company has a strong cash position of $10 billion as of December 31, 2024, supporting a sustainable dividend yield of 2.84% [20].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the HIV sector, highlighting Gilead's long-acting therapy, Lenacapavir, as a potential game-changer in HIV treatment and prevention [1][3]. Group 1: HIV Mechanism and Treatment - HIV is a retrovirus that selectively targets CD4+ cells, integrating its genetic material into the host's genome, leading to viral replication [5][7]. - The primary treatment for AIDS is the "cocktail therapy," which combines multiple antiviral drugs to minimize resistance and maximize viral suppression [5][7]. Group 2: Lenacapavir's Impact - Lenacapavir is Gilead's first long-acting HIV capsid inhibitor, showing promising results in clinical trials for treating multi-drug resistant HIV in adults [9][11]. - In the CAPELLA study, 83% of participants using Lenacapavir achieved a viral load of less than 50 copies/mL after 52 weeks, compared to only 11% in the placebo group [13][14]. - Lenacapavir has significant potential in post-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), with studies indicating a 100% reduction in HIV infection risk among participants receiving biannual injections [20][21]. Group 3: Market Potential and Future Developments - The global HIV infection rate in 2023 was approximately 39.9 million, with a significant portion of the population being women [15][18]. - Lenacapavir's approval for PrEP is anticipated to set a new standard in HIV prevention, potentially generating substantial revenue for Gilead [23]. - Other recent advancements in HIV treatments include Merck's dual-drug therapy achieving positive results in Phase III trials and ViiV Healthcare's long-acting antibody therapy showing good efficacy [24][26].