（责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 9月以来，创新药持续调整，估值回落到较为合理区间。进入四季度，BD交易落地重回密集发布周 期，且当前位于ESMO后（欧洲肿瘤内科学会年会）数据披露与MNC谈判接洽节点，创新药行情有望 重新迎来修复。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 风险提示：不构成个股投资建议，指数涨跌不代表未来。观点随市场环境变化，不构成投资建议。 提及基金风险收益水平各不相同，请选择与自身风险偏好匹配的产品，谨慎投资。基金收益分配原则详 见基金法律文件。 今日，创新药震荡回调，科创创新药ETF（589720）跌超2.5%。盘中溢价交易，或有资金逢低布 局。 每日经济新闻 东吴证券表示，展望2026年，创新药仍将是投资主线。主要原因是创新药国际地位有赶超之势、 BD出海井喷式增长、市值空间大及业绩进入扭亏盈利阶段等，新一代ADC+2.0 IO及小核酸等将是创新 药重点方向。 科创创新药ETF国泰（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug market is entering a rapid development phase, with companies like Heng Rui benefiting from policy support and industry expansion opportunities [1][6]. Company Performance - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 23.188 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.85%, and a net profit of 5.751 billion yuan, up 24.50% [2]. - The company has received a total cash dividend of over 9.3 billion yuan, enhancing investor returns [1]. - The company has established a differentiated competitive advantage through over 50 billion yuan in cumulative R&D investment and has 24 innovative drugs approved for sale in China [1][2]. Industry Trends - The innovative drug sector is experiencing accelerated commercialization and increased business development (BD) transactions, leading to a sustained growth trend in performance [1][6]. - Companies like Zejing Pharmaceutical and Dizhe Pharmaceutical are also reporting significant revenue growth, with Zejing achieving a 54.49% increase in revenue to 593 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. - The industry is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, supported by favorable national policies and increasing international collaboration [5][6].

Core Insights - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index experienced a maximum increase of 141.24% from January 1 to early September 2025, followed by a decline of 22.63% until October 30, before rebounding with a rise of 4.09% on October 31 [1] - China's pharmaceutical BD transaction scale has exceeded $100 billion this year, with domestic innovative drugs accounting for 46% of global pharmaceutical licensing transactions, marking China as the largest source of licensing transactions globally [4][10] - The difficulty and cost of expanding into the U.S. market for Chinese innovative drugs are expected to increase due to stricter regulations and higher fees imposed by the U.S. FDA [6][9] Market Dynamics - The U.S. government is implementing administrative measures to restrict drug imports from China, including stricter FDA reviews and higher regulatory fees [7] - The FDA's new guidelines emphasize overall survival (OS) in cancer drug approvals, potentially increasing costs by 1 to 2 times [8] - The frequency of FDA inspections is increasing, with a projected rise from 522 inspections in FY2022 to 972 in FY2024 [8] Outbound Strategies - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are evolving their outbound strategies from out-licensing to NewCo and Co-Co models, allowing for shared development and commercialization risks [12][13] - A notable transaction includes Innovent Biologics' deal with Takeda Pharmaceuticals, valued at up to $11.4 billion, utilizing the Co-Co model [11] Domestic Market Potential - The Chinese innovative drug market is currently underperforming compared to its potential, with a market share of only 8.6% compared to 81.8% in the U.S. [15][17] - The average price of innovative drugs in China is significantly lower than in the U.S., with large molecule drugs priced at about 1/15 of U.S. prices [17] - Recent policy adjustments, including the introduction of commercial insurance and confidential price negotiations, are expected to gradually align domestic drug prices with international standards [17] Future Outlook - By 2035, China is projected to develop a number of leading pharmaceutical companies and become a global center for new drug creation [18] - The emergence of top global pharmaceutical companies from China is anticipated, with a focus on developing first-in-class (FIC) or best-in-class (BIC) drugs [20] - The innovative drug market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by strong data presentation at major international conferences and the ability of Chinese companies to conduct international multi-center clinical trials [21]

Core Insights - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry is transitioning into a new phase characterized by "in China, in Global," indicating a shift from merely serving local needs to integrating into the global ecosystem [1][7][10] - The surge in business development (BD) transactions has reignited investor interest, but concerns about undervaluing early-stage innovations persist [1][3][9] Group 1: Industry Development - The Chinese innovative drug sector has evolved from "in China, for Global" to "in China, in Global," reflecting a more integrated role in the global value chain [1][7] - The industry has seen a 400% increase in drug development activities over the past decade, surpassing international growth rates [7] - The emergence of a new BD transaction model, Co-Co, allows for shared responsibilities and profits between Chinese biotech firms and multinational corporations [4][5][10] Group 2: Business Development Transactions - Recent BD transactions have reached unprecedented amounts, with a notable deal between Innovent Biologics and Takeda Pharmaceuticals valued at up to $11.4 billion [3][4] - The Co-Co model represents a departure from traditional licensing agreements, enabling Chinese firms to retain more control and share in the commercialization process [4][5] - The number of BD transactions is increasing, indicating a growing acceptance of Chinese biotech capabilities in the global market [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the increase in BD activity, the capital market's response has been lukewarm, with concerns about the sustainability of these transactions and the potential for future "washouts" [9][12] - The focus is shifting from individual "star pipelines" to platforms that demonstrate ongoing innovation capabilities, with AI integration becoming a standard expectation [12] - Multinational companies are increasingly establishing R&D centers in China, attracted by local scientific talent and technological advancements [10][11]

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector is under pressure, with notable declines in stock prices for companies such as Rongchang Biologics down 11.2% to HKD 81.65, and Innovent Biologics down 5.16% to HKD 25 [1] - Haitong International's recent report indicates that the pharmaceutical index has underperformed the market post the October Golden Week, primarily due to fluctuating tariffs and underwhelming external licensing expectations [1] - Guosen Securities believes that China's innovative drug industry shows a long-term positive development trend, particularly highlighted by explosive growth in BD transactions in recent years [1] Group 2 - The ESMO 2025 conference in Berlin featured 112 results, including 21 related to domestic new drug research [2] - Innovent Biologics announced a global strategic collaboration with Takeda Pharmaceutical to advance the development of next-generation immuno-oncology and antibody-drug conjugate therapies, with an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion and potential milestone payments totaling up to USD 10.2 billion, bringing the total deal value to a maximum of USD 11.4 billion [2]

Market Overview - The market opened lower and experienced low-volume fluctuations, with Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks declining due to market sentiment despite positive news regarding overseas expansion [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug ETF (159570) fell over 2%, with a trading volume exceeding 1.6 billion yuan during the session [1] - As of October 21, the latest scale of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug ETF (159570) exceeded 20.9 billion yuan, maintaining a leading position in scale and liquidity among peers [1] Strategic Collaborations - Innovent Biologics announced a global strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceutical to accelerate the development of its next-generation IO and ADC therapies, including two late-stage candidates and one early-stage project [3] - The collaboration includes an upfront payment of 1.2 billion USD, with potential milestone payments totaling up to 10.2 billion USD, bringing the total deal value to a maximum of 11.4 billion USD [3] Business Development (BD) Trends - A surge in business development activities was noted, with five BD announcements totaling 4.266 billion USD made on October 16 and 17 alone [4] - Major companies involved include Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Prigen, and others, with upfront payments ranging from 0.07 billion to 1.2 billion USD [4] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug ETF (159570) saw mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with notable declines in several companies despite positive news for Innovent Biologics [4] Industry Insights - According to Huaxin Securities, the pace of outbound licensing for innovative drugs has resumed, with 93 transactions recorded by August 2025, accounting for 32% of global transactions [6] - The total upfront payments for these transactions reached 4.3 billion USD, exceeding the total for the previous year and expected to set a new high in nearly a decade [6] - The report indicates that multinational corporations (MNCs) continue to favor early-stage assets from China, particularly in hot areas like bispecific antibodies and ADCs [7] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see concentrated BD activities, particularly with the ESMO conference and upcoming quarterly reports [7] - The trend of BD transactions is anticipated to continue as MNCs seek to fill revenue gaps from patent expirations of blockbuster products [7] - The performance of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug ETF (159570) has shown significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of over 109% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with recent declines attributed to a combination of profit-taking and market sentiment, despite a fundamentally strong outlook for the industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong innovative drug index has dropped by 9.49% since October 2, while the A-share innovative drug index has decreased by 3.68% since October 9, both retreating over 10% from their recent highs [2]. - Despite the downturn, retail investors continue to show interest, with significant net inflows into thematic ETFs, such as the GF CSI Innovative Drug Industry ETF, which saw an increase of over 860 million shares in October [4]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers attribute the recent downturn to a "too much increase" in stock prices, indicating that the market is undergoing a necessary correction rather than a fundamental weakening of the sector [2][3]. - Managers emphasize the importance of focusing on companies that can successfully translate scientific innovations into commercial success, suggesting that future stock selection will be more stringent [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to maintain a positive long-term trajectory, supported by ongoing advancements in research and clinical data, despite short-term volatility [4][5]. - Upcoming academic conferences are anticipated to provide further catalysts for the industry, showcasing the latest data from leading companies [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The focus is shifting towards identifying high-quality companies with robust product pipelines and clinical data, as the market becomes more discerning in evaluating the quality of clinical results and business development transactions [6][7]. - Fund managers believe that the market's winners will be those who can consistently produce valuable innovations and effectively convert them into commercial revenue [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with recent declines attributed to profit-taking after significant gains, while the long-term positive fundamentals remain intact [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - After the National Day holiday, both the Hong Kong and A-share innovative drug indices have shown poor performance, with the Hong Kong index down 9.49% and the A-share index down 3.68% since early October, marking a retreat of over 10% from last month's peak [2]. - Despite the downturn, retail investors continue to show enthusiasm, with significant net inflows into thematic ETFs, such as the GF CSI Innovative Drug Industry ETF, which saw an increase of over 860 million shares in October [4]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers attribute the recent downturn to a combination of factors, including profit-taking after a strong rally, specific events affecting individual stocks, and external macroeconomic influences [2][3]. - The expectation of business development (BD) transactions has been a key driver of the market, but the timing of these transactions is uncertain, leading to volatility [3]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to become more selective in stock picking, focusing on companies that can successfully translate scientific innovations into commercial success [6][7]. - The upcoming academic conferences are anticipated to provide further catalysts for the industry, with many quality companies set to present their latest data [4][5]. - Despite recent declines, the fundamentals of the innovative drug sector remain strong, with ongoing advancements in research and clinical trials [4][7]. Investment Strategy - The focus will shift from broad valuation reassessments to a more rigorous evaluation of individual companies based on their clinical data and commercial capabilities [7][8]. - Companies that can consistently produce valuable innovations and effectively convert these into revenue will be the future winners in the market [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the innovative drug sector is attributed to a correction after a significant rise, but the long-term positive fundamentals remain intact [2][3][4]. Market Performance - After the National Day holiday, both A-share and Hong Kong innovative drug indices have shown poor performance, with the Hong Kong index down 9.49% and the A-share index down 3.68% since early October, marking a retreat of over 10% from last month's peak [3]. - The number of "doubling funds" in the innovative drug sector has decreased, with only one remaining, while most other products have seen returns drop to the 80%-90% range [3]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers attribute the recent downturn to a combination of factors, including profit-taking after a strong rally, specific events affecting certain stocks, and external macroeconomic influences [3][4]. - The expectation of business development (BD) transactions has not materialized as anticipated, leading to a correction in stock prices [4]. ETF Fund Flows - Despite the downturn, retail investor enthusiasm remains, with significant net inflows into thematic ETFs focused on innovative drugs, indicating continued interest in the sector [5][6]. Long-term Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its long-term positive trend, supported by ongoing research and development efforts [6]. - Upcoming academic conferences are anticipated to provide catalysts for the sector, with high-quality data releases expected to enhance valuations [6]. Stock Selection Criteria - Future stock selection will become more stringent, focusing on companies that can successfully translate scientific innovations into commercial success [7][8]. - The market will increasingly scrutinize clinical data, sales reports, and the quality of BD transactions to determine company value [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, including WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and Changchun High-tech [5][28]. Core Insights - The report expresses a strong outlook on the innovation theme and emphasizes the importance of capturing Q3 performance. The pharmaceutical sector has shown a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.73% and the pharmaceutical sector down 3.65% [12][16]. - The report highlights the active participation of Chinese biopharmaceutical companies in global business development (BD) transactions, which have reached 38% of the global total since 2025. This trend is expected to boost investment sentiment in the sector [12][16]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with improving performance metrics, particularly in the CRO/CDMO and upstream segments, as well as in medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine [12][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry comprises 515 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 731.59 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 666.30 billion yuan [2]. Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a year-to-date return of 18.85%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.13 percentage points. However, recent weeks have seen a decline in various sub-sectors, with traditional Chinese medicine being the only one to show an increase [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is approximately 26.2 times PE based on 2025 earnings forecasts, which is a premium of 17.3% compared to the overall A-share market (excluding financials). The TTM valuation stands at 30.1 times PE, below the historical average of 34.9 times PE [18][20]. Key Company Performance - The report lists several companies with strong performance metrics, including WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and Changchun High-tech, all rated as "Buy." The average decline for recommended stocks in the month was 10.08%, with a weekly decline of 7.43% [28][29]. Business Development Activity - The report notes that several pharmaceutical companies have engaged in overseas licensing agreements, indicating a growing recognition of Chinese companies' capabilities in the global market [12][16]. Regulatory Updates - Recent regulatory announcements from the National Medical Insurance Administration and the National Medical Products Administration are aimed at improving drug pricing transparency and enhancing the approval process for innovative drugs [12][29]. Price Trends - The report tracks the price movements of various vitamins, noting slight decreases in some and stability in others, which may impact the cost structure for companies in the sector [31][32].