每经AI快讯，赣锋锂业(01772.HK)早盘跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.19%，报48.26港元，成交额5.3亿港 元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to poor short-term feedback from the downstream market and slowing inventory replenishment, leading to downside risks for lithium spot prices [1][6] - The firm predicts a 12% shortage in global lithium capacity relative to demand in the second half of 2025, transitioning to a 10% surplus by the second half of 2026 [7] - Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for the benchmark spot price of lithium carbonate in China for the second half of 2025 to $9,500 per ton, a 14% decrease from previous expectations [6][8] Group 2 - The downgrade reflects concerns about the mid-term supply-demand balance in the lithium market, despite significant improvements in the fundamentals [6] - The firm has significantly reduced its earnings forecasts for Ganfeng Lithium, cutting estimates for 2026-2027 by 36%-42% and predicting a loss in 2025 [6][8] - Goldman Sachs maintains a sell rating for Ganfeng Lithium's A-shares and Tianqi Lithium's A and H-shares, with a target price of HKD 32 for Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's stock has dropped over 5% following a downgrade by Goldman Sachs, reflecting concerns over lithium market dynamics and pricing [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares fell by 5.19% to HKD 48.26, with a trading volume of HKD 530 million [1] - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-share rating from neutral to sell, citing risks of declining lithium spot prices due to poor short-term feedback from downstream markets and slowing inventory replenishment [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the benchmark spot price of lithium carbonate in China for the second half of 2025 down to USD 9,500 per ton, a 14% decrease from previous expectations [1] - Daiwa maintained a "underperform" rating for Ganfeng Lithium, raising the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 53, reflecting a 22% discount for A-shares [1] - Daiwa's supply-demand analysis indicates a projected global lithium surplus of 76,000 tons and 54,000 tons over the next two years, down from last year's surplus of 124,000 tons [1] - Daiwa expects lithium prices in China to stabilize between RMB 75,000 and RMB 90,000 per ton next year, higher than earlier predictions of an average selling price of RMB 70,000 per ton for Ganfeng Lithium [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's stock has dropped over 5% following a downgrade by Goldman Sachs, which reflects concerns about lithium market dynamics and pricing [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price fell by 5.19%, reaching HKD 48.26, with a trading volume of HKD 530 million [1] - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares from neutral to sell, citing risks of declining lithium spot prices due to poor short-term feedback from downstream markets and slowing inventory replenishment [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the benchmark spot price of lithium carbonate in China for the second half of 2025 down to USD 9,500 per ton, a 14% decrease from previous expectations [1] - Daiwa maintained a "underperform" rating for Ganfeng Lithium, raising the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 53, reflecting a 22% discount for Ganfeng's A-shares [1] - Daiwa's supply-demand analysis indicates a projected global lithium surplus of 76,000 tons and 54,000 tons over the next two years, down from 124,000 tons last year [1] - Daiwa expects lithium prices in China to stabilize between RMB 75,000 and RMB 90,000 per ton next year, higher than earlier predictions of an average selling price of RMB 70,000 per ton for Ganfeng Lithium [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Chinese Lithium Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese lithium sector**, highlighting the downside risks following a recent bull run in lithium prices and market dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Demand and Supply Dynamics** - The lithium market has shown improved fundamentals, with a tight supply-demand balance expected in **2H25-1H26** due to stronger demand from both domestic and export markets, particularly driven by the **Energy Storage Systems (ESS)** segment [1][2]. - A **12% deficit** in global lithium capacity is anticipated against demand in **2H25**, with a return to a **10% surplus** in **2H26** [2]. 2. **Price Forecasts** - The benchmark China spot lithium carbonate price is forecasted to average **US$11.0k/t-LCE** in **1H26**, **US$9.5k/t-LCE** in **2H26** (14% lower than previous forecasts), and **US$9.3k/t-LCE** in **2027** (15% lower than previous forecasts) [3]. - Current lithium prices are significantly above marginal costs, which may lead to increased production and a higher surplus by late **2026** [2]. 3. **Earnings Revisions** - Earnings estimates for lithium equities have been revised down by **5-42%** for **2026-27** due to changes in lithium price forecasts. Target prices for companies like **Ganfeng-H** have been adjusted upwards by **9-15%** [3]. - Ganfeng-H has been downgraded to a **Sell** rating, with target prices set at **HK$32.0** and **Rmb35.0**, indicating a **37% downside** potential [3][33]. 4. **Demand Drivers** - The **ESS** market has seen a **55% year-on-year increase** in production, with an annualized run-rate of **650GWh** in October 2025, leading to a **9% increase** in lithium demand compared to **1H25** [15]. - The **electric vehicle (EV)** sector in China is also growing, with a **32% year-on-year increase** in sales during the first ten months of 2025, contributing to a **16% increase** in lithium demand [16]. 5. **Risks and Upside Potential** - Risks include potential negative feedback from downstream markets, decelerating restocking rates, and the pace of supply response [1][2]. - Upside risks for Ganfeng-H include higher lithium product prices, faster project expansions, and lower raw material costs [34]. Additional Important Information - The current share prices of Ganfeng and Tianqi have factored in much higher lithium prices than the current spot levels, indicating potential overvaluation [3][35]. - The report emphasizes the sensitivity of supply to pricing outlooks, with many projects being flexible to restart based on lithium pricing [27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese lithium sector, focusing on market dynamics, price forecasts, earnings revisions, demand drivers, and associated risks.

高盛将赣锋锂业H股的评级从"中性"下调至"卖出"，理由是下游市场短期反馈欠佳以及补库存增速放 缓，导致锂现货价格面临下行风险。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares rating from Neutral to Sell, with a target price of HKD 32 [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司） （股份代號：1772） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條 刊 發。 根據中華人民共和國的有關法例規定，江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司（「本 公 司」）在 深 圳 證 券 交 易 所 網 站（http://www.szse.cn/）刊 發 了 以 下 公 告。茲 載 列 如 下，僅 供 參 閱。 承董事會命 江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司 董事長 李良彬 中 國‧江 西 二零二五年十 一 月 二十一 日 於本公告日 期，董事會成員包括本公司執行董事李良彬先 生、王曉申先 生、沈海博先 生、黃婷女士及李承霖先 生；本公司非執行董事羅榮女 士； 本公司獨立非執行董事王金本先 生、黃浩鈞先 生、徐一新女士及徐光華 先 生；以及本公司職工董事廖萃女 士。 证券代码 ...

（於中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司） （股份代號：1772） 臨時股東大會之回執 致：江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司（「本公司」） 4. 本回執內所有日期及時間均指香港日期及時間。 2. 請填上以 閣下名義登記的本公司H股股份數目。倘未填入股份數目，則本回執將被視為與以 閣下名義登記的本公司所 有H股股份有關。 3. 本回執須於2025年12月1日（星期一）或之前以親身、郵寄或傳真方式送達本公司H股股份過戶登記處香港中央證券登記有 限公司（地址為香港灣仔皇后大道東183號合和中心17M樓）（電話：(852) 2862 8555、傳真：(852) 2865 0990）。 股東名稱及註冊地址 （附註1） ： 持股數目 （附註2） ： H股。 本人╱吾等擬出席將於2025年12月11日（星期四）下午二時正於中華人民共和國江西省新余市經濟開發區龍騰路本公 司總部研發大樓四樓會議室舉行的題述會議或其任何續會。 日期： 股東簽名： 股東名稱： 附註： 1. 請用正楷填上 閣下於本公司H股股東名冊所示的全名及地址。 ...

臨時股東大會代表委任表格 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司） （股份代號：1772） 與本代表委任表格有關的 H股數目 2 本人╱吾等 （附註1 ） 地址為 （附註1） 為江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司（「本公司」）H股（「H股」） 股 （附註2） 的登記持有 人，茲委任本公司題述會議（「大會」）主席或 （附註3） 地 址 為 （附註3 ） 為本人╱吾等的受委任代表出席本公司謹訂於2025年12月11日（星期四）下午二時正於中華人民共和國江西省新余市 經濟開發區龍騰路本公司總部研發大樓四樓會議室舉行的大會或其任何續會，並代表本人╱吾等於大會或其任何續 會依照下列指示就下列決議案投票，如本人╱吾等並無做出指示，則由本人╱吾等的代表酌情決定投票。 1. 請用正楷填上 閣下於本公司H股股東名冊所示的全名及地址。 2. 請填上以 閣下名義登記及與本代表委任表格有關的H股數目。倘未有填上H股數目，則本代表委任表格將被視為與所有 以 閣下名義登記的H股有關。 3. 如擬委派大會主席以外的人士為代表，請將「本公司題述會議（「大會」）主席或」字樣刪去，並在空欄內填上 閣下擬委派 代表的姓名及地址。倘並無填上有關姓名，則 ...