[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Oct 2025 中国半导体 China (Overseas) Semiconductor FY3Q25 全球科技业绩快报：英特尔 FY3Q25 Global Semiconductor Earnings Snapshot: Intel 姚书桥 Barney Yao barney.sq.yao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 英特尔 3Q25 业绩超收入预期，代工与 AI 战略调整成焦点：3Q25 收入为$137 亿，同比+8%、环比+3%，略高于市场 一致预期的$131 亿。主要受益于个人电脑与 AI 相关业务的持续复苏：CCG 收入$85 亿，同比环比+8%； DCAI 收入 $41 亿，环比+5%，成为主要驱动；Foundry 业务收入$42 亿，环比-4%。EPS 为$0.9，超出市场一致预期 0.01。Non- GAAP 毛利率为 40%，环 ...

营收增长&毛利率提升&持续的成本管控推动 25Q3 业绩超预期 ❖ 事项： 2025 年 10 月 24 日英特尔发布 2025 年 Q3 季度财务报告，并召开业绩说明 会。公司 2025Q3 季度财务报告时间截至 2025 年 9 月 27 日。 ❖ 评论： 证 券 研 究 报 告 营收增长、毛利率提升及持续的成本管控是推动每股收益超预期的主要因素 英特尔（INTC）FY25Q3 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 1. 业绩概览：（1）2025Q3 公司实现营收 137 亿美元（QOQ+6%，YOY+3%）， 高于此前指引上沿 136 亿美元与分析师预期 127 亿美元，在核心市场持续表 现强劲的推动下，公司实现了连续第四个季度营收超指引。客户采购行为与库 存水平均处于健康状态，且行业供给已出现实质性收紧。（2）2025Q3 公司调 整后归母净利润 10亿美元，调整后毛利率为 40%（QOQ+10.3pct，YOY+22pct）， 得益于营收增长、产品组合优化及库存准备金减少，比指引值高 4pct。Lunar Lake 处理器产量增加以及 Intel 18A 制程的早期量产，对毛利率提升形成了部 分抵消。（3）20 ...

Spread the loveCompanies are downsizing as the future looks bleak. Third-nation outsourcing is prevalent, and the domestic workforce is tightening. Several corporations shrank their workforce significantly this year in a trend that will continue as the economy turns down.GEICO insurance company, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway, reduced its workforce by 30,000 positions. Insurance may have seemed like a stable industry, but insurers are facing high competition and lower margins. The company believes it ca ...

英特尔正站在"死亡的边缘"，危险信号被笼罩在一片欣欣向荣的景象之下。 过去的两个月，这家芯片巨头迎来自己的高光时刻——美国政府、硅谷巨头、风投之王先后加入"混改"英特尔的行列，短时间内，为其输送了 接近160亿美元的资金。 一个个利好消息不断刺激股价上涨——从今年4月份最低点17.665美元，至10月23日收盘的38.160美元，涨幅超过116%。尤其是第三季度，营 收137亿美元，净利润为41亿美元成功扭亏为盈后，其盘后股价一度涨近8%。 在这一系列资本运作中心的，是英特尔新任CEO陈立武。 不过，资本的"弹药"可能会帮助英特尔渡劫，未必能让其代工业务"站上巅峰"，几个关键性的问题必须要注意：英特尔Fab 52产能真相、18A 工艺的真实水平，以及代工业务何时止血。 可以说，现在的英特尔晶圆代工业务，就像站在ICU门前。 一旦18A在市场上得不到正反馈，"世界级的代工厂"、"先进制造的美国梦"，可能就会瞬间崩盘。 01 产能不够，客户也不太会买账 英特尔的工艺路线图中，一度包括20A、18A、14A等先进节点，今年4月份删去了20A，转而主攻18A和14A两个大节点（也会延伸出迭代版 本，比如支持后段金属堆 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the TMT industry, particularly focusing on AI applications, suggesting a strong investment opportunity in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The TMT sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with significant weekly gains in sub-industries such as communication network equipment (17.85%) and printed circuit boards (14.05%) [3][5]. - OpenAI launched its first AI-native browser, ChatGPT Atlas, which integrates browsing, chatting, and task automation, aiming to enhance user engagement and expand commercial applications [3][18]. - Huawei's HarmonyOS 6 was released with AI as a core feature, showing improved performance and enhanced user experience, indicating a growing penetration of AI applications in mobile devices [3][18]. Market Weekly Review - The TMT sector's performance from October 20 to October 24 showed significant gains across various sub-industries, with communication leading the way [3][5]. - The overall TMT sector outperformed the broader market, indicating strong investor interest and potential for growth [3][5]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - OpenAI's new browser and Huawei's HarmonyOS 6 release highlight the rapid advancements in AI applications, suggesting a competitive landscape among tech giants [3][18]. - The report notes various strategic partnerships and product launches in the AI space, indicating a robust ecosystem developing around AI technologies [3][17][21].

Intel Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Intel Corporation - **Date of Call**: October 24, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - Intel reported Q3 revenue of **$13.7 billion**, a **6%** increase quarter-over-quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of exceeding revenue expectations [3][11] - Non-GAAP gross margin was **40.4%**, with earnings per share at **$0.23** [3] - Operating cash flow reached **$2.5 billion**, with capital expenditures of **$3 billion** and adjusted free cash flow of **$900 million** [3][11] Drivers of Performance - Key factors driving performance included strong core market demand, healthy customer purchasing behavior, tightened industry supply, and increased computing demand due to AI proliferation [2][3] - Higher revenue, favorable product mix, and lower inventory reserves positively impacted gross margins, although this was partially offset by higher sales of Lunar Lake and early production costs of Intel 18A [3] AI Strategy - Intel is actively pursuing AI strategies, including supporting hybrid computing environments through its X86 business and collaborating with NVIDIA to accelerate AI adoption [2][4][5] - Plans to launch GPUs optimized for inference performance to meet enterprise customer needs [2][5] - Engaging with independent software vendors (ISVs) to ensure adequate application support for AI in the PC space [4][21] Semiconductor Manufacturing Progress - Significant advancements in semiconductor manufacturing, with steady progress on the Intel 18A process and full operation of the Arizona fab 52 plant [2][6] - Active communication with potential external customers to align technology with market needs [6] PC Market Competition - Intel plans to launch its first Pentelic SKU by year-end and introduce more models in the first half of next year to strengthen its position in the PC market [2][7] - Enhancements in high-end desktop market competitiveness through Aura Lake and Nova Lake products [7][8] Foundry Business Development - Continued growth in the foundry business driven by AI infrastructure expansion, with increased demand for wafer capacity and advanced packaging services [2][9] - Establishment of a central engineering group to improve decision-making efficiency and collaboration [9] Future Outlook - For Q4, Intel expects revenue between **$12.8 billion and $13.8 billion**, with a gross margin decline to approximately **36.5%** due to initial costs of new products [4][15] - Anticipated capital expenditures for 2025 to exceed **$27 billion**, up from **$17 billion** in 2024 [4][15] Product Performance - Q3 product revenue was **$12.7 billion**, a **7%** increase, driven by strong demand in client and server products [12] - Client Computing Group (CCG) revenue was **$8.5 billion**, an **8%** increase, benefiting from seasonal demand and Windows 11 updates [12] AI and PC Business Insights - PC AI business revenue reached **$4.1 billion**, a **5%** increase, driven by improved product mix and enterprise demand [13] - The latest Dion 6 processor offers significant cost savings and power reductions, enhancing its role in AI data centers [13] Foundry Business Insights - Foundry business revenue was **$4.2 billion**, a slight **4%** decline year-over-year, but exceeded expectations in 10nm and 7nm product deliveries [14] Capital Management - Intel repaid **$4.3 billion** in debt during the quarter and plans to prioritize debt repayment for upcoming maturities [11][19] - The company aims to maintain strict discipline in capital expenditures while monitoring market demand [19] Technology Development - Continued focus on enhancing the 18nm process capacity, with expectations to reach peak capacity by the end of the century [20] - Development of custom ASIC chips to meet specific customer needs, enhancing low-power applications and improving performance [23] Collaboration with NVIDIA - Ongoing collaboration with NVIDIA to develop AI-optimized data center and PC products, enhancing market opportunities and addressing AI demand [25] Conclusion - Intel is strategically positioned to leverage AI growth, enhance its product offerings, and improve operational efficiencies while managing capital expenditures and debt effectively [10][19]

AI and Technology Sector - The AI demand cycle is still in its early stages, with significant growth in GPU shipments, server shipments, and data center builds expected to continue [6][7][8] - Many large companies are adopting AI but are struggling with use cases and understanding the true economics of implementation [8][9] - The current excitement around AI may lead to a "trough of disillusionment," where valuations could drop as reality catches up with expectations [12][14] - Nvidia's valuation is considered reasonable based on its growth and margins, but concerns exist about potential competition affecting its market share [15][26] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector has seen a significant run-up in prices, with the SOXX ETF moving from 148 to 290 over six months [56][58] - There is a possibility that the semiconductor sector may become a source of funds for investors, as profits are taken and capital is rotated into other sectors [57][64] - Intel is positioned to benefit from government support and reshoring of semiconductor manufacturing, but its fundamentals remain weak [65][69] Tesla - Tesla's stock is viewed positively due to potential synergies with xAI, despite challenges in its core automotive business [34][38] - The market perception of Tesla is driven more by Elon Musk's leadership than by traditional automotive fundamentals [41][42] Gold Market - Gold prices are perceived to have risen too quickly, driven by fear rather than fundamental economic indicators [43][45] - The current demand for gold is seen as a reaction to global uncertainties, but there is skepticism about its sustainability at current price levels [48][50] Quantum Computing - The quantum computing sector has experienced significant momentum, but the long-term viability of smaller companies in this space remains uncertain [30][32] - Government investments may provide temporary support, but stock prices are currently viewed as overvalued relative to fundamentals [32][33] Cryptocurrency - The cryptocurrency market is characterized by high volatility, with Bitcoin and Ether seen as having potential upside, while lower-order coins are viewed with caution [74][84] - The use of ETFs for cryptocurrency investments is recommended as a safer alternative to direct holdings [86]

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 事件： 英特尔（INTC）近日发布2025Q3财报，25Q3营收137亿美元，同比+2.8%/环比+6.2%，毛利率 40%，同比+22pcts/环比+10.3pcts。综合财报及交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、 25Q3营收超指引上限，毛利率同环比大幅提升。 25Q3营收137亿美元，同比+2.8%/环比+6.2%，超指引上限（126-136亿美元），主要系客户端 和数据中心业务的强劲需求；毛利率40%，同比+22pcts/环比+10.3pcts，主要系收入增长、产品 结构优化及库存准备金减少所致。EPS为0.23美元，超指引预期，主要由收入增长、毛利率提升及 持续的成本控制所驱动。 2、 CCG及DC AI业务环比实现增长，AI服务器CPU需求强劲。 ①Intel Products： 营收126亿美元，环比+6.8%，其中CCG营收环比+7.6%，CCG进一步深化 了与微软的合作，通过Windows机器学习协作，以及将英特尔vPro可管理性技术与微软Intune深度 集成，同时团队已完成酷睿Ultra 3推出所需的所有关键里程碑；DC AI营收环比+5.1% ...

Intel's third-quarter report was much better than expected.Following a big rally over the past couple of months, Intel's (INTC +0.31%) third-quarter earnings report on Thursday was a high-stakes affair for the stock. The chip giant delivered, with revenue growing and earnings coming in far higher than expected. Intel's comeback is still in its early innings, but there were clear signs of progress in the third quarter. Here are six key things about Intel's report that investors need to know. 1. Revenue and p ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the wind energy sector, including Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy, based on their competitive advantages and expected market share growth [9][12]. Core Insights - The report outlines China's strategic tasks in the energy sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing a green transition driven by dual carbon goals, including specific measures such as carbon emission control, industrial decarbonization, and the development of renewable energy [6][13]. - The wind energy sector is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with a target of no less than 120GW of new installations annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including at least 15GW from offshore wind [7][5]. - Hydrogen energy has been recognized as a key future industry, with strong policy support anticipated to accelerate its industrialization and commercialization, positioning it as a new growth driver [13][15]. Wind Energy - The "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration 2.0" has revised the market's expectations for wind power installations, indicating a slowdown in the trend of larger wind turbines, with a focus on products that meet market demands for power trading [7][8]. - Goldwind's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue increase of 25.4% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 170.6% [9]. - The competitive landscape in the wind turbine sector is expected to undergo a "value reshaping" as companies adapt to market conditions and enhance product offerings [7][8]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Hydrogen energy has been elevated to a national strategic level, with policies expected to support its rapid development and integration into various sectors [13][15]. - The report highlights the acceleration of green hydrogen projects and the rising demand for fuel cell vehicles, indicating a significant market opportunity [14][15]. - The establishment of a complete commercial model for green hydrogen in shipping is seen as a breakthrough that could lead to broader applications in other industries [15][16]. Photovoltaics and Energy Storage - The introduction of new measures in Henan Province is expected to enhance the profitability of independent energy storage projects, confirming the report's previous assertions about the growing demand for large-scale energy storage [17][18]. - The export of photovoltaic components remains strong, with a notable increase in shipments to emerging markets, indicating sustained demand [19][20]. - The report suggests a bottom-up investment approach in the solar and storage sectors, focusing on leading companies and innovative technologies [20]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a surge in demand, with some negative electrode manufacturers raising prices due to increased production capacity utilization [21][24]. - A significant breakthrough in solid-state battery technology has been achieved by XINWANDA, with a new polymer solid-state battery reaching an energy density of 400Wh/kg [26][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships in the lithium battery supply chain, particularly for enhancing sustainability and competitive advantage [22].