——京东集团 25Q1 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们调整盈利预测，预测公司 2025-2027 年收入为 12832/13637/14266 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 12591/13323/13891 亿元，因公司商品收入提速上调），经调 整归母净利润为 433/489/518 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 478/504/527 亿元，因 外卖业务投入加大下调利润）。参考可比公司，给予京东零售 2025 年 10xPE，分部 估值计算公司市值 5970 亿元，对应每股股价 203.81 港元（人民币兑港币汇率 1.09），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：政策效果不及预期，行业竞争加剧，行业监管趋严。 京东集团-SW 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 09618.HK | | --- | --- | | | 买入（维持） | | 股价（2025年05月21日） | 134.5 港元 | | 目标价格 | 203.81 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 187.43/92.25 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 318,755/286,507 | | ...

JD (NASDAQ: JD ) beat both top and bottom line estimates for the first fiscal quarter on Tuesday, showing strong performance in its e-Commerce core business. The company saw strong results in its core JD Retail business which is one ofAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of JD, BABA, PDD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeki ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Famed investor Michael Burry turned bearish in Q1 2025, dumping most of his stock positions, including Chinese e-commerce giants like JD.com, despite Wall Street's bullish outlook [1] - Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about JD stock, with a consensus rating of 'Strong Buy' from 13 experts, including 10 'Buy' ratings and no 'Sell' ratings [2] - The average 12-month price target for JD shares is $49.23, suggesting a potential upside of 46.74% from its closing price of $33.55 [2] Group 2: Burry's Investment Moves - Burry slashed his portfolio and increased short bets on China, exiting positions in Alibaba, Baidu, and PDD Holdings, indicating a bearish stance on the Chinese technology sector [1][4] - His only long position in Q1 2025 was in Estée Lauder, where he doubled his stake to 200,000 shares [5] Group 3: Recent Analyst Updates on JD - Benchmark analyst reaffirmed a 'Buy' rating for JD.com, slightly trimming the price target from $58 to $53 after stronger-than-expected Q1 2025 earnings [6] - Citi raised its price target for JD.com to $52, citing a 43% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP net profit and a growing customer base [7] - Jefferies lifted its target to $66 while maintaining a 'Buy' recommendation, highlighting rising active user numbers and increasing Gross Merchandise Volume [8] Group 4: Cautionary Perspectives - Morgan Stanley took a more cautious approach, lowering its target to $39 while maintaining an 'Equal-weight' rating, expressing concerns over the lack of guidance on JD's food delivery segment [9]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com's recent first-quarter results were generally well-received, but an analyst's price target cut led to a nearly 4% decline in stock price [1] Group 1: Analyst's Price Target Adjustment - Susquehanna International's Shyam Patil reduced JD.com's price target by over 10%, from $45 to $40 per share, while maintaining a neutral recommendation [2] - Despite the price target cut, Patil did not change his overall estimation of the stock [2] Group 2: Company Performance and Market Position - Patil praised JD.com's first-quarter performance, noting improvements in user experience that are driving user growth [4] - The company is well-positioned in the market and could benefit from expansion into new segments like food delivery [4] Group 3: Economic Concerns - The shaky state of the Chinese economy may limit JD.com's potential, according to Patil [5] - This economic uncertainty is expected to persist, influencing the analyst's price target reduction and neutral outlook [5] Group 4: Growth Potential - JD.com demonstrated encouraging year-over-year growth, particularly in its bottom line, and exceeded consensus analyst estimates [6] - There are indications that the Chinese macroeconomy might be in better shape than perceived, suggesting that JD.com should not be underestimated if it continues to improve its fundamentals [7]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street analysts have rerated JD.com, Inc, lowering price targets after the company reported first-quarter results, leading to a decline in stock price [1] Financial Performance - JD.com reported net revenue of 301 billion Chinese yuan (approximately $41.5 billion), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.8% and surpassing consensus expectations by 11 billion Chinese yuan [2] - Adjusted EPADS for the first quarter was 8.41 Chinese yuan (or $1.16), exceeding consensus by $0.19 [3] Growth Drivers - The trade-in program contributed to a 17% growth in 3C and home appliances, with gross margin growth accelerating to 15% from 11% previously [3] - Management raised the fiscal 2025 retail growth outlook to double-digit growth, supported by improving consumer sentiment and enhancements to its ecosystem [4] Strategic Initiatives - JD.com entered the food delivery market, achieving nearly 20 million daily orders within three months, indicating significant potential in the on-demand retail ecosystem [6] - The company has repurchased $1.5 billion in shares year-to-date, reducing its share count by 2.8% [3] Market Outlook - Analysts have raised revenue estimates for fiscal 2025 to 1.290 trillion Chinese yuan (up 11.6%) and for fiscal 2026 to 1.342 trillion Chinese yuan (up 3.8%) [8] - However, adjusted EPADS estimates were lowered to $4.61 for fiscal 2025 and $4.95 for fiscal 2026 due to increased pressure on margins [8] Challenges and Adjustments - JD.com withdrew its fiscal 2025 group-level profitability guidance due to limited visibility and ongoing market volatility, indicating a need for dynamic adjustments in promotional strategies and expansion plans [7]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, with revenues increasing 15.8% year over year to RMB 301.1 billion ($41.5 billion), surpassing estimates [1] - The company faces near-term challenges, particularly in its new business segment, which is impacting profitability despite long-term growth potential [2][18] Financial Performance - JD's non-GAAP diluted net income per share rose 48.8% year over year to RMB 8.41 ($1.16), exceeding consensus estimates by 10.48% [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $4.59 per share, revised downward by 3.16% over the past 30 days, indicating 7.75% year-over-year growth [6] - The consensus for 2025 revenues is $172.07 billion, suggesting 7.04% year-over-year growth [6] New Business Segment Challenges - The new business segment reported a non-GAAP operating loss of RMB 1.3 billion in Q1 2025, despite an 18% year-over-year revenue increase [4] - The food delivery initiative is still in its early stages, incurring significant costs without meaningful revenue contributions [5] Competitive Landscape - JD.com operates in a highly competitive online retail market in China, facing significant competition from Alibaba and PDD Holdings [7][8] - Alibaba holds approximately 80% of China's e-commerce market, while PDD attracts consumers with aggressive discounts [8] - JD's competitors have advantages such as longer operating histories and larger customer bases, posing threats to JD's market share [10] Stock Performance and Valuation - JD shares have returned 7.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry [11] - However, JD has underperformed compared to Alibaba and PDD, which gained 55.3% and 23.2% respectively [12] - JD currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 7.94X, significantly below the industry average of 22.94X, indicating a potentially discounted valuation [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD [1][10][22] Core Insights - JD's revenue for FY1Q25 reached RMB 301.1 billion, marking a 15.8% year-on-year increase, the highest quarterly growth in three years [4][10] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was RMB 12.8 billion, reflecting a 43.4% year-on-year growth, exceeding expectations [4][10] - The company is expected to increase its investment in the food delivery business starting from FY2Q25, which is anticipated to drive further growth [10] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Projected revenues (in RMB million) are as follows: - 2023: 1,084,662 - 2024: 1,158,819 - 2025E: 1,309,433 - 2026E: 1,405,187 - 2027E: 1,493,471 - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 3.7% for 2023, 6.8% for 2024, 13.0% for 2025, 7.3% for 2026, and 6.3% for 2027 [2][13] - Non-GAAP net profit projections are: - 2025E: 47,603 million - 2026E: 52,024 million - 2027E: 56,176 million [2][13] - The operating margin for JD Retail increased to 4.9%, while the gross margin reached 15.9% [6][8] Market Data - As of May 14, 2025, JD's closing price was USD 37.25, with a market capitalization of USD 59.4 billion [3] - The stock has a 52-week high of USD 46.45 and a low of USD 23.44 [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD US, with a target price adjusted from $62 to $50, indicating a potential upside of 34.2% from the current price of $37.25 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - JD US's retail business revenue and profit growth exceeded expectations in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 16% to RMB 301.1 billion. The growth was driven by a 17% increase in electronic products revenue and a 15% increase in daily necessities revenue [2][8]. - The company is experiencing healthy growth in active users, with a year-on-year increase of over 20%. The introduction of the food delivery service is still in a dynamic adjustment phase, but it is expected to partially offset the pressure from new business investments [2][7]. - The report highlights that the food delivery service has begun to enhance platform traffic, increasing user shopping frequency and cross-category consumption, which is anticipated to create long-term synergistic value within the platform ecosystem [2][8]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, JD US reported a gross profit margin increase of 0.6 percentage points, with adjusted net profit rising by 43% due to supply chain capabilities and economies of scale. The adjusted operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [2][8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been updated, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 1,313.16 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 13.3% [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 46.21 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.5% [6][9]. Stock Performance - JD US's stock has shown a year-to-date change of 7.44%, with a 52-week high of $47.08 and a low of $24.95 [5][8]. - The report indicates that the stock's performance is expected to align positively with the broader market trends, as indicated by the "Buy" rating [3][10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued double-digit growth in both revenue and profit for the retail business in Q2 2025 and throughout the year, supported by a healthy trend in user growth and engagement [2][8]. - The financial model updates suggest a stable outlook for JD US, with a focus on leveraging its supply chain and expanding its service offerings to enhance profitability [6][9].

Core Insights - JD.com, Inc. reported Q1 '25 earnings, surpassing expectations on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue [1] - EPS was reported at $1.16, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.18 [1] - Revenue reached $41.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.8% [1]

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