Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, has recently increased his investment in JD.com, indicating a positive outlook on the company and the Chinese technology sector [1][2]. Company Summary - Burry has doubled his stake in JD.com to 500,000 shares valued at $20 million, with the stock trading positively in recent months [2]. - JD.com has seen a return of over 70% in the past year, with a strong start to 2025, gaining 18% [2]. - The company is projected to achieve nearly 20% growth in 2025, supported by its focus on global partnerships and digital innovation [3]. - JD.com has established partnerships with Chilean brands to enhance sales of premium products, which is part of its strategy to reduce import costs and improve quality [3][4]. - The company has a diverse portfolio, including electronics and general merchandise, and is well-positioned for market expansion [4]. - JD.com achieved over 20% year-over-year shopper growth during the 2024 Singles Day promotion, showcasing its strong market position [6]. - The firm's AI-powered supply chain and logistics network enhances its manufacturing and delivery operations [6]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about JD.com, with Jefferies raising its price target from $54 to $60 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing strong Q4 management as a growth driver [7]. - BOCOM International has also increased its Q4 2024 revenue and profit forecasts by 3% and 12%, respectively, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [8]. - China Merchants Securities projects a 9% year-on-year revenue increase for JD.com [8]. Valuation Insights - JD.com's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 12.94, which is relatively low compared to its tech peers, suggesting it may be undervalued [9]. - Despite a 70% price increase over the past year, JD.com may still be trading below its true potential based on earnings, indicating it could be an attractive investment opportunity for long-term investors [10].

Core Viewpoint - JD.com, Inc. (JD) has seen a 5.6% increase in share price over the past four weeks, closing at $38.50, with a mean price target of $48.59 indicating a potential upside of 26.2% [1] Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of 17 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $10.61, indicating variability among analysts; the lowest estimate is $28 (27.3% decline), while the highest is $70 (81.8% increase) [2] - A low standard deviation suggests a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction, which can serve as a starting point for further research [7] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - There is increasing optimism among analysts about JD's earnings prospects, as indicated by a strong consensus in revising EPS estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [9] - Over the last 30 days, one estimate has increased with no negative revisions, leading to a 2.1% rise in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [10] Zacks Rank and Investment Potential - JD currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for near-term upside [11] Conclusion on Price Targets - While consensus price targets may not reliably indicate the extent of JD's potential gains, they do provide a useful guide for the direction of price movement [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD, indicating a positive outlook on the company's performance and growth potential [6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that JD's core electric product categories are expected to see a significant increase in GMV driven by ongoing government subsidies, with a strong profit growth forecast for Q4 [4][8]. - JD's supply chain advantages and competitive barriers in key product categories remain robust, with continued investments aimed at enhancing user experience and expanding into new categories like apparel [10][13]. - The introduction of a new "gift-giving" feature is anticipated to enhance user engagement and drive sales during the Spring Festival [12][13]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For FY24, JD's revenue is projected to reach RMB 333.6 billion, representing a 9% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 94.5 billion, reflecting a net margin of 2.8% [7][10]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY24 has been raised from RMB 42.8 billion to RMB 46.0 billion, with projections for FY25 and FY26 remaining at RMB 46.2 billion and RMB 48.5 billion, respectively [6][13]. - Revenue growth is expected to improve sequentially, with JD Retail anticipated to grow by 9.5% year-over-year to RMB 293.1 billion in Q4 [8][10]. Market Performance - JD's stock closed at USD 39.00, with a market capitalization of USD 62.1 billion, reflecting a strong position in the market [5]. - The report notes that online retail sales of physical goods in Q4 are expected to grow by 3.5% year-over-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [8]. Strategic Initiatives - JD is focusing on enhancing its supply chain capabilities and operational efficiency, which are expected to drive profitability [9][10]. - The company is also increasing user investments and subsidies in emerging categories to stimulate user engagement and purchase frequency [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD US, with a target price raised from $56 to $60, indicating a potential upside of 53.8% [1][6][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the trade-in policy, which is expected to continue benefiting JD's sales in the electronics category. Revenue and profit forecasts for Q4 2024 have been raised by 3% and 12%, respectively. The company is projected to maintain healthy profit growth in 2025, supported by a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [1][6][7]. - The anticipated total revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to reach RMB 334 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, which is 3% higher than previous estimates and 2% above Bloomberg consensus [6][7]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 is projected at RMB 9.5 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, also revised up by 12% from earlier forecasts [6][7]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Total revenue estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted upward by 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively, while net profit estimates have been increased by 2.3% and 2.8% for the same years [5][6]. - The report anticipates that JD's retail revenue will outperform social retail growth in 2025, with continued healthy profit growth and shareholder returns [6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, product sales revenue is expected to be RMB 917.2 billion, with a growth rate of 5.6%. The electronics category is projected to generate RMB 556.2 billion, reflecting a 10%+ year-on-year increase [5][6][7]. - The report also details revenue contributions from various segments, including service revenue and logistics, indicating a diversified income stream [5][6][7]. Market Performance - JD's stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 12.49%, with a 52-week high of $47.08 and a low of $21.44, reflecting strong market interest [4][6].

Group 1 - Michael Burry has shifted his investment focus from the United States to China, achieving a 74.24% return last year due to a brief Chinese stimulus [2] - As of January 17, 2025, JD's stock has increased by 12.49%, closing at $39, contributing positively to Burry's portfolio [3][5] - Burry holds 500,000 shares of JD, with the value of his stake rising from approximately $17.12 million to about $19.25 million following the stock surge [4][5] Group 2 - Analyst support for JD has increased, with Jefferies raising its price target from $54 to $60, maintaining a 'Buy' rating, anticipating strong performance in the upcoming quarterly report [6] - Both JPMorgan and Citigroup have placed JD on positive catalyst watch, citing revenue growth expectations and the company's first-mover advantage in trade-in programs [7] - The overall Chinese stock market has been buoyed by the country meeting its 5% GDP growth target for 2024, contributing to the positive trading environment for JD [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for JD.com, with a target price of US$53.20, indicating a potential upside of 36.4% from the current price of US$39.00 [3][11]. Core Insights - JD.com is expected to report solid results for 4Q24, with total revenue projected at RMB334.6 billion, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year growth, which is 3% above Bloomberg consensus. This growth is attributed to the nationwide home appliance trade-in program, JD's strong GMV exposure in the home appliance category, and robust supply chain capabilities [1][8]. - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to grow by 13.2% year-over-year, exceeding consensus estimates by 16%, driven by gross margin expansion and optimized sales and marketing costs [1][8]. - The report emphasizes that JD.com is well-positioned to benefit from the trade-in program in the short term, while long-term growth will depend on sustainable earnings and enhanced shareholder returns [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, JD.com is projected to achieve revenue of RMB1,146.4 billion, a 5.7% increase from FY23A, with non-GAAP net profit expected to reach RMB46.1 billion [2][9]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at RMB46.1 billion, with an adjusted EPS of RMB29.05 [2][9]. - Revenue growth is expected to continue into FY25E at RMB1,218.0 billion, representing a 6.2% increase, and further to RMB1,278.0 billion in FY26E, with a growth rate of 4.9% [2][9]. Segment Performance - The Electronics and Home Appliance (E&HA) segment is projected to see a 10% year-over-year revenue growth in 4Q24, supported by the trade-in program [7][8]. - JD Retail (JDR) is expected to report segment revenue of RMB294.0 billion in 4Q24, up 9.8% year-over-year, with operating profit anticipated to increase by 28% year-over-year [7][8]. Forecast Revisions - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upward by 1-2%, and non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been increased by 2-8%, primarily due to improved expectations for the E&HA segment and better gross margin forecasts [8][9]. - The gross margin for FY24E is projected at 15.9%, with non-GAAP net margin expected to be 4.0% [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 11.1x for FY24E, decreasing to 9.1x by FY26E, reflecting a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [2][9]. - The DCF-based target price of US$53.20 is based on a WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 1.5% [11][12].

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Company Performance - JD.com, Inc. closed at $35.37, with a +1.81% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.83% [1] - The stock has decreased by 6.79% over the past month, compared to the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 4.54% and the S&P 500's loss of 3.31% [1] Upcoming Earnings - JD.com is expected to report earnings of $0.80 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.67% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $45.16 billion, an increase of 4.76% from the previous year [2] Analyst Projections - Recent shifts in analyst projections for JD.com should be monitored, as positive revisions indicate optimism regarding the company's business and profitability [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks JD.com at 3 (Hold) with no changes in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [5] Valuation Metrics - JD.com has a Forward P/E ratio of 7.93, significantly lower than the industry average of 20.81 [6] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 0.25, compared to the Internet - Commerce industry's average PEG ratio of 1.19 [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 140, placing it in the bottom 45% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Company Performance - JD.com, Inc. closed at $34.72, reflecting a -0.74% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.16% [1] - Over the past month, JD.com shares have decreased by 9.13%, compared to a 4.61% loss in the Retail-Wholesale sector and a 2.7% loss in the S&P 500 [1] Upcoming Earnings - The company is expected to report an EPS of $0.80, representing a 6.67% increase year-over-year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to reach $45.16 billion, indicating a 4.76% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes in analyst estimates for JD.com are crucial as they reflect the evolving business trends [3] - Positive estimate revisions suggest analyst optimism regarding the company's business and profitability [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - JD.com currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the last 30 days [5] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 7.93, significantly lower than the industry average of 20.96 [6] - JD.com has a PEG ratio of 0.25, compared to the Internet - Commerce industry's average PEG ratio of 1.19 [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 67, placing it in the top 27% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Company Overview - JD com is one of the three leading e Commerce companies in China with a focus on appliances and other businesses [1] - The company is considered a value opportunity on the drop by the analyst [1] Analyst's Portfolio and Strategy - The analyst focuses on high risk high reward situations primarily in the technology markets [1] - The analyst's portfolio includes Bitcoin Tesla Google Amazon and Nvidia with an emphasis on companies with asymmetric long term upside [1] Analyst's Position and Disclosure - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in JD com BABA and PDD through stock ownership options or other derivatives [2] - The article reflects the analyst's personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation or business relationships with the mentioned companies [2]