投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/11/21 | 初敏（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 9.680 | chumin@kysec.cn | yangzhe@kysec.cn | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 13.600/6.570 | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790524100001 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,200.77 | | | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,200.77 | | | | 总股本(亿股) | 124.05 | | | | 流通港股(亿股) | 124.05 | | | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 44.01 | | | win11 换机潮如期兑现，利润率稳健体现供应链韧性 win11 换机潮、AI PC 渗透率提升如期兑现，三大业务利润率稳定验证公司供应 链的韧性，我们上调 FY2026-2028 财年 non-gaap 归母净利润至 17.6/20.7/23.6 亿 美元（前次为 16.7/19.6/23.0 亿美元），同比增长 21.8%/ ...

同时认为，联想集团AI基础设施业务强劲增长，今财季内，集团云基础设施业务收入创同期历史新 高，AI服务器收入亦实现高双位数增长。 中金发布研报称，维持联想集团(00992)目标价14.8港元及"跑赢行业"评级，仍有52%的上行空间，暂维 持2026-2027财年盈测不变，整体业绩超该行预期，主因三大业务集团及全区域市场均实现双位数收入 增长，AI相关收入业务收入占比同比升13个百分点至30%，及运营利润率的提升。 面对上游核心元器件涨价，该行认为，集团在上游储存供应紧张、涨价压力下，拥有灵活的供应链管 理、与关键元器件供应商长期合作关系，也建立了灵活的价格调整机制，具较强的风险吸收能力。集团 亦对2026下半财年PC收入实现双位数的同比增长有信心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains Lenovo Group's target price at HKD 14.8 with an "outperform" rating, indicating a 52% upside potential, while keeping the earnings forecast for FY2026-2027 unchanged due to overall performance exceeding expectations [1] Group Performance - Lenovo's three major business groups and all regional markets achieved double-digit revenue growth [1] - AI-related revenue increased by 13 percentage points year-on-year to account for 30% of total revenue [1] - The operating profit margin has improved [1] Supply Chain Management - The company possesses strong risk absorption capabilities due to flexible supply chain management and long-term relationships with key component suppliers [1] - Lenovo has established a flexible pricing adjustment mechanism to cope with rising prices and supply shortages of core components [1] Future Outlook - Lenovo is confident in achieving double-digit year-on-year growth in PC revenue for the second half of FY2026 [1] - The AI infrastructure business is experiencing robust growth, with cloud infrastructure revenue reaching a historical high for the quarter [1] - AI server revenue also saw high double-digit growth [1]

联想集团 20251120 摘要 联想集团各业务板块实现均衡增长，人工智能相关收入占比达 30%。PC 业务收入超 150 亿美元，同比增长 12%，市场份额达 25.6%的历史新高，AI PC 系统贡献显著，占 PC 出货量的 33%。 基础设施解决方案集团（ISG）收入同比增长 24%至 41 亿美元，受益 于云服务提供商的新客户获取及企业和中小企业转型。天然液体冷却技 术同比增长 154%，巩固了其在可持续高性能基础设施领域的领导地位。 解决方案与服务集团（SSG）连续 18 个季度实现两位数增长，同比增 长 18%，经营利润率超 22%。项目和解决方案以及管理服务收入占 SSG 总收入比重接近 60%，增长速度是可寻址市场的两倍。 联想通过严格财务管理，经营现金流达 15 亿美元，自由现金流攀升至 11 亿美元。存货周转天数减少 10 天，调整后净融资成本下降 31%，反 映出持续成本优化及营运资金效率举措。 联想预计未来 2-4 年 PC 业务将继续实现两位数增长，智能手机市场也 将以高于市场速度成长。将加大双位数市场份额投入，在 B2B 领域实现 持续双位数增长，并加快高端产品推广。 Q&A 联想 ...

联想集团 20251121 摘要 联想集团整体营收稳健增长，各业务和区域营收均实现双位数增长，人 工智能相关业务营收占比达 30%，同比提升 13%，表明 AI 驱动战略成 效显著。 个人智能领域，联想推出一体多端战略，计划于 2026 年 1 月推出个人 超级智能体，IDG 营收同比增长 12%，个人电脑市场份额突破 25%，AI 终端设备占比提升至 36%，同比增长 17%。 企业智能领域，基础设施市场向本地数据中心和边缘侧推理转变，SGG 营收同比增长 24%，AI 基础设施订单储备强劲，SSG 营收连续 18 个季 度实现双位数增长，运营利润率超 22%。 针对存储器件涨价，联想作为行业最大买家之一，通过长期合约确保未 来 1-2 个季度及明年的足够供应，并保证具有竞争力的成本，有效应对 供应短缺和价格波动。 联想预计第三财季收入将实现中高个位数增长，2025-2026 财年下半 年 PC 和 SG 业务将实现双位数增长，全年收入预计实现低双位数增长， 净利润同样预期双位数增长。 Q&A 联想集团在 2025-26 财年中期的整体业绩表现如何？ 在 2025-26 财年第二季度，联想集团取得了创纪录的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) [1] Core Insights - Lenovo Group's FY2026H1 performance shows revenue growth driven by AI, with total revenue reaching $39.282 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at $850 million, up 40.5% year-on-year [8] - The company benefits from strong performance across its three main business segments, with AI driving revenue and profit growth, enhancing overall competitiveness [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY2024A: $56.864 billion - FY2025A: $69.077 billion - FY2026E: $76.417 billion - FY2027E: $83.943 billion - FY2028E: $90.407 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: FY2025A +21.48%, FY2026E +10.63%, FY2027E +9.85%, FY2028E +7.70% [1][9] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - FY2024A: $1.011 billion - FY2025A: $1.384 billion - FY2026E: $1.868 billion - FY2027E: $2.089 billion - FY2028E: $2.332 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: FY2025A +37.01%, FY2026E +34.93%, FY2027E +11.84%, FY2028E +11.64% [1][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY2024A: $0.08 - FY2025A: $0.11 - FY2026E: $0.15 - FY2027E: $0.17 - FY2028E: $0.19 [1] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - FY2026E: 9.04 - FY2027E: 8.08 - FY2028E: 7.24 [1] Business Segment Performance - **IDG (Intelligent Devices Group)**: - Revenue of $28.57 billion in FY2026H1, up 14.6% year-on-year, with a strong operating profit margin of 7.2% [8] - **ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group)**: - Revenue of $8.38 billion in FY2026H1, up 29.6% year-on-year, driven by demand for AI infrastructure [8] - **SSG (Solutions and Services Group)**: - Revenue reached $4.81 billion in FY2026H1, up 18.9% year-on-year, with a high operating profit margin of 22% [8]

Core Insights - Lenovo reported 2QFY26 revenue of $20.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.7% [1] - Non-HKFRS net profit reached $512 million, up 25.2% year-on-year, surpassing the company's previous guidance midpoint of approximately 19% [1] - The company disclosed that AI-related business revenue accounted for 30% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13 percentage points [1] Group 1: PC and IDG Performance - IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) revenue grew by 11.8% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 60%, demonstrating resilience amid rising storage costs [2] - Lenovo's global PC market share increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to 25.6%, marking a record high and leading the second-place competitor by 5.7 percentage points [2] - Driven by hybrid AI, PC revenue rose by 17% year-on-year, with AI PC penetration increasing by 16 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for 33% of total PC shipments [2] Group 2: ISG and SSG Performance - ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) revenue increased by 23.7% year-on-year, driven by demand for cloud infrastructure and enterprise solutions [3] - AI server business recorded high double-digit revenue growth, with strong order reserves [3] - Neptune liquid cooling technology revenue surged by 154% year-on-year, reinforcing the company's leadership in energy-efficient AI infrastructure [3] - SSG (Solutions and Services Group) revenue grew by 18.3% year-on-year, maintaining double-digit growth for the 18th consecutive quarter, with an operating profit margin exceeding 22% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company expects to leverage its scale and supply chain advantages to mitigate the impact of rising storage costs, with AI anticipated to drive stable revenue growth in IDG [2] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 14.0 (previously HKD 16.0), corresponding to a 14.6 times FY2026E PE, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 14.6% year-on-year, reaching $20.45 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.7% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin increased to 2.5%, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 0.3% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from the IDG segment was $15.11 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.7%, with a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] - The ISG segment generated $4.09 billion in revenue, which was below Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9%, but still showed a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [1] - The SSG segment achieved a record revenue of $2.56 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.2%, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin was reported at 15.4%, slightly lower than Bloomberg's expectation by 0.06 percentage points [1] - The operating profit margin for the IDG segment was 7.3%, in line with expectations, while the SSG segment reported an operating profit margin of 22.3%, exceeding expectations by 3.1 percentage points [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates adjusted net profit growth of 16.9%, 9.9%, and 13.3% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, translating to $1.68 billion, $1.85 billion, and $2.10 billion respectively [1] - The stock price is projected to have a PE ratio of 9.2X, 8.4X, and 7.4X for FY25/26 to FY27/28 [1]

Core Insights - Lenovo Group's 2QFY26 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of $20.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [1] - Non-HKFRS net profit reached $512 million, up 25.2% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 5.1% to $340 million [1] - The strong performance was driven by double-digit revenue growth across all three business groups and regions, with AI-related revenue accounting for 30% of total revenue, up 13 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] Business Segment Performance - The IDG segment reported revenue growth of 11.8% to $15.107 billion, with an operating profit margin of 7.3% [2] - Lenovo's PC shipment growth of 17.3% outpaced the global PC market's growth of 9.4%, increasing its market share to 25.5% [2] - The ISG segment saw revenue growth of 23.7% to $4.087 billion, with a reduced operating loss margin of -0.78%, indicating significant improvement [3] Market Position and Outlook - Lenovo holds a 31.1% share of the global Windows AI PC market, maintaining its leading position [2] - The company is confident in achieving double-digit year-on-year growth in PC revenue for the second half of FY2026, supported by strong supply chain management and long-term relationships with key component suppliers [2] - The AI infrastructure business is experiencing robust growth, particularly in cloud infrastructure and AI server revenue, which is seeing high double-digit growth [3] Financial Projections - Lenovo maintains its FY2026/27 profit forecasts, with the current stock price corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3x for FY2026 and 8.0x for FY2027 [3] - The target price is set at HKD 14.8, reflecting a potential upside of 52% based on FY2026/27 earnings multiples [3]

毛利率小幅回升，预计公司后续将有效应对存储涨价带来的影响。FY25/26Q2 公司毛利率为15.39%， 环比+0.66pcts，验证公司AI 服务器业务转型推进良好；公司供应链体系完善，且为业内较大的采购 商，在过去多轮部件涨价周期中积累了丰富且完备的应对方案，预计公司后续将有效应对存储涨价带来 的影响。 维持"买入"评级。我们维持此前盈利预测，预计公司FY25/26-FY27/28 财年实现收入794.9、915.5、 1052.4 亿美元，实现归母净利润16.7、20.3、24.3 亿美元，基于公司在PC 市场的领先地位和AIPC 产品 的不断推进，以及人工智能趋势下AI 服务器的强劲增长，我们维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：PC 景气度维持不及预期；AI 服务器产品研发、出货不及预期；关税问题等宏观环境波动。 机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：黄忠煌/王开元 公司发布FY25/26Q2 财报，超预期。FY25/26Q2 实现营业收入204.52 亿美元，同比+14.58%；实现调整 后的净利润5.12 亿美元，同比+25.18%，由于净利润受到认股权证公允价值变动的影响较大，因此重点 关注调整后的净利润。整体 ...