麦格理发布研报称，联想集团(00992)目标在2026年透过创新及高端产品组合提升市场份额，带动设备 业务收入增长。基础设施方案方案业务集团(ISG)重组计划旨在调整产品组合及员工配置，以捕捉快速 增长的推理需求。该行维持联想"跑赢大市"评级，上调目标价5%至12.93港元，因相信联想ISG业务扭 亏为盈进展良好。 2026财年第三季(12月底止)业绩优于预期，收入同比增长18%，较麦格理预测及市场共识高出5%。该行 预测3月季度收入及经营溢利将同比增长13.8%及27.6%。预期ISG增长最为强劲，受惠于其155亿美元的 AI服务器管道，以及混合云端本地推理需求增加。该行相信联想已锁定足够内存供应，并计划动态调 整价格以应对零部件成本波动。麦格理调整联想2026年至2028财年非香港财务报告准则净利润预测，分 别上调4.3%、5.4%及下调3.1%，主要由于经营利润率调整。 ...

2026财年第三季(12月底止)业绩优于预期，收入同比增长18%，较麦格理预测及市场共识高出5%。该行 预测3月季度收入及经营溢利将同比增长13.8%及27.6%。预期ISG增长最为强劲，受惠于其155亿美元的 AI服务器管道，以及混合云端本地推理需求增加。该行相信联想已锁定足够内存供应，并计划动态调 整价格以应对零部件成本波动。麦格理调整联想2026年至2028财年非香港财务报告准则净利润预测，分 别上调4.3%、5.4%及下调3.1%，主要由于经营利润率调整。 智通财经APP获悉，麦格理发布研报称，联想集团(00992)目标在2026年透过创新及高端产品组合提升市 场份额，带动设备业务收入增长。基础设施方案方案业务集团(ISG)重组计划旨在调整产品组合及员工 配置，以捕捉快速增长的推理需求。该行维持联想"跑赢大市"评级，上调目标价5%至12.93港元，因相 信联想ISG业务扭亏为盈进展良好。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citi raises Lenovo Group's (00992) non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards net profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 7%, 11%, and 13% respectively, and slightly adjusts the target price from HKD 10.3 to HKD 10.4 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Lenovo Group's Q3 FY2026 performance exceeded market expectations, driven by strong revenue from the personal computer business and a 7.3% operating profit margin [1] - The company is expected to achieve positive growth in its smart devices business group in FY2026, supported by rising average selling prices driven by demand for AI personal computers and high-end models [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The outlook for Lenovo Group in 2026 is more favorable than market concerns, with expectations that the company can pass on rising memory costs through retail price increases and improve bargaining power with suppliers [1] - The infrastructure solutions business group is expected to turn profitable, contributing to overall profit growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates an upward revision of Lenovo Group's net profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028, driven by stable profit margins in personal computers and an increase in average selling prices [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Lenovo Group's non-Hong Kong financial reporting net profit forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 have been increased by 7%, 11%, and 13% respectively [1] - The target price for Lenovo Group has been slightly raised from HKD 10.3 to HKD 10.4 while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Group 2: Performance Insights - The third-quarter performance for the fiscal year 2026 exceeded market expectations, benefiting from strong revenue in the personal computer segment and a 7.3% operating profit margin [1] - The company anticipates positive growth in its smart devices business group for 2026, driven by increased demand for AI personal computers and high-end models, which will elevate average selling prices [1] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is expected to pass on rising memory costs to consumers through retail price increases and improve its bargaining power with suppliers [1] - The infrastructure solutions business group is projected to return to profitability, contributing to overall earnings growth [1]

通过该计划，公司预计将加速在下一财年重回盈利轨道，并提升盈利能力，致力于在未来连续3 个财年 均实现每年净成本节省超过2 亿美元。 4、方案服务业务集团：潜在市场规模较大，助力公司相关收入保持长期增长。FY2026Q3，公司方案服 务业务集团季度营收同比增长18%，已连续19 个季度取得双位数增长。运营利润率提升至22.5%，接近 历史高位。该集团收入中，运维服务和项目与解决方案服务的收入占比不断提升，成为驱动方案服务业 务集团保持增长势头的关键因素。公司在IT 服务业增长最快速的领域进行策略性布局，潜在覆盖市场 规模达3600 亿美元。在数字化工作场所服务、混合云、人工智能和可持续发展等领域，方案服务业务 集团的增长速度则达到市场平均增速的2 倍。 盈利预测和投资评级考虑到公司混合式AI 进展显著，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计公司FY2026- FY2028 营收分别为801.44、876.00、932.35亿美元，non-HKFRS 净利润分别为17.96、19.73、21.11 亿 美元，对应non-HKFRS P/E 倍数为8.0x、7.2x、6.8x，维持"买入"评级。 1、调整后净利润显著增长，主要 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $22.204 billion for FY26Q3, marking an 18% year-over-year increase and a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI-related business revenue growing by 72% and accounting for 32% of total revenue [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $546 million, a 21% decrease year-over-year but a 60% increase quarter-over-quarter, while adjusted net profit under non-Hong Kong financial reporting standards was $589 million, reflecting a 36% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase [1] IDG Business (Intelligent Device Group) - The IDG business generated $15.755 billion in revenue for FY26Q3, representing a 14% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by rapid growth in AI PC revenue and increased sales of high-end products [2] - The PC business revenue increased by 18% year-over-year, with Lenovo's global PC shipment market share reaching 25.3%, up 1.0 percentage points year-over-year, and AI PC penetration in the Chinese market rising to nearly 20% [2] - Smartphone sales and activations reached historical highs, primarily driven by strong performance of high-end models such as Edge and positive market feedback for ultra-high-end models like Motorola razr fold and Motorola Signature [2] ISG Business (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - The ISG business reported revenue of $5.176 billion for FY26Q3, a 31% year-over-year increase and a 27% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI server revenue experiencing high double-digit growth [3] - The company has a project reserve amounting to $15.5 billion, and it delivered NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72 designed rack-level solutions during the period [3] - The revenue from liquid cooling solutions increased by 300% due to higher customer adoption rates, and a one-time restructuring cost of $285 million was incurred to optimize product mix and enhance productivity [3] SSG Business (Solutions and Services Group) - The SSG business achieved revenue of $2.652 billion for FY26Q3, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase, marking 19 consecutive quarters of double-digit year-over-year growth [4] - The operating profit margin was 22.5%, close to historical highs, with maintenance services revenue increasing by 22%, project and solutions revenue up by 16%, and support services revenue also rising by 16% [4] - The core growth engines for the SSG business are maintenance services and project and solutions [4]

维持"买入"评级，维持目标价14 港币 根据公司披露，受混合式AI 推动，PC 营收+18%yoy，其中AI PC 渗透率超过30%且持续提升；Moto 品 牌智能手机销量和激活量双双创历史新高。 展望4Q 及FY27，我们预计联想能够发挥其规模和供应链优势，部分吸收存储涨价影响，AI 有望驱动 IDG 业务收入稳定增长。 ISG：Neptune 液冷营收同比大增300%，4Q 有望扭亏为盈ISG 3QFY26 收入+31% yoy 至51.8 亿美元， 主要受益于云基础设施和ToB的企业基础设施业务需求的双重驱动。3QFY26，公司AI 服务器业务营收 实现高双位数同比增长，项目储备高达155 亿美元，部署首个联想NVIDIAGB300 NVL72 机架级解决方 案，订单储备强劲。行业领先的Neptune 液冷技术营收3Q同比大增300%，继续巩固公司在节能AI 基础 设施的领导地位。 利润方面，受一次性重组费用2.85 亿美元影响，ISG 录得1,100 万美元经营亏损（环比收窄66%），营 业利润率环比改善0.6pct 至-0.2%，显示企稳回升。展望未来，ISG 业务或受益于：1）AI 进入推理兑现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve stable growth driven by the increasing penetration of AI PCs, strong orders for AI servers, and resilient supply chain management, leading to an upward revision of FY2026 earnings forecasts while maintaining projections for FY2027-2028 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY2026Q3, the company reported revenue of $22.204 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of $20.76 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026Q3 was $589 million, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $463 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [1] - The company has revised its FY2026-2028 non-GAAP net profit estimates to $1.81 billion, $2.07 billion, and $2.36 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 14.5%, and 13.9% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - In the IDG segment, revenue reached $15.755 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with Lenovo's PC shipments growing 14.4% compared to the industry average of 9.6% [1] - The AI devices within the IDG segment saw a significant year-on-year growth of 71%, accounting for 40% of the segment's revenue [1] - The ISG segment generated revenue of $5.176 billion, up 31.4% year-on-year, driven by the deployment of GB300 NVL72 and a 59% increase in AI infrastructure revenue [1] Group 3: Operational Metrics - The operating profit margin (OPM) for the IDG segment was 7.32%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.07 percentage points, demonstrating the company's supply chain resilience amid rising component costs [1] - The SSG segment achieved revenue of $2.652 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, with deferred revenue increasing by 20% to $3.78 billion, enhancing business predictability [2] - The OPM for the SSG segment was 22.48%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong operational resilience [2]

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：黄忠煌/王开元 ISG 基础设施解决方案：AI 服务器双位数高增，首次披露在手订单155 亿美元。FY25/26Q3ISG 板块实 现营业收入51.76 亿美元，同比+31.42%。拆分来看，AI 服务器高两位数增长，且公司首次披露订单储 备金额155 亿美元，后续增长动能强劲。FY25/26Q3 ISG 板块的经营利润为-1085 万美元，较上一财季 继续缩亏，公司AI 服务器业务转型持续推进。预计在规模效应+全球供应链体系的加持下，ISG 板块有 望在下一财季实现扭亏。 市场逐步消化存储冲击预期，同时，预计公司后续将有效应对存储涨价带来的影响。公司供应链体系完 善，且为业内较大的采购商，在过去多轮部件涨价周期中积累了丰富且完备的应对方案。一方面，公司 对B 端客户具备一定的成本传导能力；另一方面，若涨价带来C 端需求的下滑，实际是利润的递延。市 场正在逐步消化存储涨价对公司带来的冲击。预计公司后续将有效应对存储涨价带来的影响。 维持"买入"评级。我们维持此前盈利预测，预计公司FY25/26-FY27/28 财年实现收入794.9、915.5、 1052.4 亿美元，实现归母净利 ...

AI 驱动价值跃迁，生态闭环筑牢增长确定性 联想集团(0992) ——联想集团 FY26Q3 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 秦和平(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | qinheping@gtht.com | S0880523110003 | | 刁云鹏(研究助理) | 021-38674878 | diaoyunpeng@gtht.com | S0880125070016 | 本报告导读： 顺应 AI 从训练向推理转型趋势，联想集团构建终端、算力、服务生态闭环，营收与 利润增长显著，实现从 PC 巨头向 AI 生态核心枢纽的转型。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 56,864 | 69,077 | 80,456 | 87,789 | 94,819 | | 同比增长（%） | -8.2% | 21.5% | 1 ...