AI 驱动价值跃迁，生态闭环筑牢增长确定性 联想集团(0992) ——联想集团 FY26Q3 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 秦和平(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | qinheping@gtht.com | S0880523110003 | | 刁云鹏(研究助理) | 021-38674878 | diaoyunpeng@gtht.com | S0880125070016 | 本报告导读： 顺应 AI 从训练向推理转型趋势，联想集团构建终端、算力、服务生态闭环，营收与 利润增长显著，实现从 PC 巨头向 AI 生态核心枢纽的转型。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 56,864 | 69,077 | 80,456 | 87,789 | 94,819 | | 同比增长（%） | -8.2% | 21.5% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" [10] Core Insights - Lenovo's revenue performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong orders for AI servers and robust supply chain resilience, which is expected to stabilize profit margins [6][7] - The company has adjusted its FY2026 earnings forecast upwards due to better-than-expected Q3 performance, maintaining FY2027-2028 earnings projections [6] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is projected at $1.81 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 Q3, Lenovo reported revenue of $22.204 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $20.76 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [7] - Non-GAAP net profit reached $589 million, exceeding expectations of $463 million, with a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [7] - Breakdown of revenue by business segments: - IDG: Revenue of $15.755 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year, with PC shipments growing 14.4% compared to the industry average of 9.6% [7] - ISG: Revenue of $5.176 billion, up 31.4% year-on-year, supported by AI infrastructure orders [7][8] - SSG: Revenue of $2.652 billion, up 17.5% year-on-year, with deferred revenue increasing by 20% [8] Earnings and Valuation Metrics - Projected revenues for FY2026 are $81.289 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [9] - Non-GAAP net profit projections for FY2026-2028 are $1.81 billion, $2.07 billion, and $2.36 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 25.5%, 14.5%, and 13.9% [9] - The current P/E ratios are projected at 9.5, 8.3, and 7.3 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively [9]

本财季，联想人工智能相关收入同比增长72%，占集团总收入的32%。智能设备业务方面，个人电脑全 球市场份额达25.3%，连续两季成为近三十年来全球PC市场份额突破25%的唯一供应商，智能手机销量 及激活量创历史新高；基础设施方案业务收入同比增长31%，方案服务业务收入同比增长18%。 北京商报讯（记者 陶凤 王天逸）近日，联想集团披露2025/26财年第三季度（截至2025年12月31日）未 经审核业绩。财报显示，本财季集团收入同比增长18%至222亿美元，创历史新高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global technology industry is undergoing a significant restructuring, characterized by soaring prices in core components like memory chips and aggressive investments in AI by tech giants. Lenovo Group has found a path to evolve amidst these changes, demonstrating strong financial performance and growth potential in the AI ecosystem [2]. Financial Performance - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of 157.5 billion RMB for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025/26, representing an over 18% year-on-year growth. Adjusted net profit increased by 36%, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth [2]. - The company’s PC shipments grew by 15% year-on-year, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of outperforming the market, and its global PC market share rose to 25.3%, leading the second-place competitor by 5.2 percentage points [5]. Market Dynamics - The memory chip price surge is creating a "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Lenovo are expected to gain market share while smaller brands struggle due to weaker bargaining power [4]. - Lenovo's strategy during the memory supply crisis involves securing inventory through long-term procurement contracts, which enhances the value of its stock during price surges [5][6]. ISG Business Growth - Lenovo's Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) achieved a revenue of 36.7 billion RMB, growing over 30% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in the server market [8]. - The ISG segment is expected to turn profitable in the upcoming quarter, with a focus on aligning product lines with future trends and capitalizing on AI infrastructure demand [9]. AI Strategy and Market Position - Lenovo's AI server revenue grew by 59% year-on-year, indicating a robust demand for AI-related infrastructure as tech giants continue to invest heavily in AI capabilities [11]. - The company aims to enhance user engagement with AI on devices, targeting an increase in daily active users from 40%-50% to 70%-80% [12]. Long-term Growth Potential - Lenovo's mixed AI strategy, combining personal and enterprise intelligence, is expected to drive sustainable growth and profitability, with AI-related revenue accounting for 32% of total revenue, reflecting a 72% year-on-year increase [13]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the evolving landscape of AI and smart agents, with a focus on maintaining a competitive edge through vertical integration and proprietary technology [9][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - Lenovo Group's revenue performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong orders for AI servers and robust supply chain resilience, which is expected to stabilize profit margins [6][7] - The company has adjusted its FY2026 earnings forecast upwards due to better-than-expected Q3 performance, while maintaining FY2027-2028 earnings projections [6] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is projected to be $1.81 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.5% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 Q3, Lenovo reported revenue of $22.204 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $20.76 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [7] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was $589 million, exceeding expectations of $463 million, and showing a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [7] - Breakdown of revenue by business segments: - IDG: Revenue of $15.755 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year, with PC shipments growing 14.4% compared to the industry average of 9.6% [7] - ISG: Revenue of $5.176 billion, up 31.4% year-on-year, supported by AI infrastructure orders [7][8] - SSG: Revenue of $2.652 billion, up 17.5% year-on-year, with deferred revenue increasing by 20% [8] Valuation Metrics - Projected non-GAAP net profits for FY2026-2028 are $1.81 billion, $2.07 billion, and $2.36 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 14.5%, and 13.9% [6] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 9.5, 8.3, and 7.3 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.00, corresponding to a 12.0x FY27E PE ratio [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 22.2 billion for 3QFY26, representing an 18% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by approximately 7% [1]. - Non-HKFRS net profit attributable to shareholders reached USD 589 million, up 36% year-over-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of USD 463 million by 27% [1]. - The growth was driven by a rising demand for hybrid AI solutions, with AI-related business revenue accounting for 32% of total revenue, an increase of 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The company is expected to leverage its scale and supply chain management capabilities to mitigate the impact of rising component prices, particularly in the storage segment [2]. Summary by Sections IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) - IDG revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to USD 15.76 billion, with an operating profit margin of 7.3% [2]. - The company's global PC market share reached a historic high of 25.3%, up 1.0 percentage point year-over-year, maintaining a 5 percentage point lead over the second-largest competitor [2]. - AI PC penetration exceeded 30% and continues to rise, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2]. ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG revenue grew by 31% year-over-year to USD 5.18 billion, driven by demand for cloud infrastructure and enterprise solutions [3]. - AI server business revenue saw high double-digit year-over-year growth, with a project pipeline of USD 15.5 billion [3]. - The Neptune liquid cooling technology revenue surged by 300% year-over-year, reinforcing the company's leadership in energy-efficient AI infrastructure [3]. SSG (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG revenue rose by 18% year-over-year to USD 2.65 billion, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with an operating profit margin exceeding 22% [4]. - Projects and solutions, along with operational services, accounted for approximately 60% of SSG's total revenue [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects an increase in Non-HKFRS net profit for FY26/27/28 by 8.5%/8.8%/7.0% to USD 1.80 billion, USD 2.03 billion, and USD 2.24 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 25.0%, 12.6%, and 10.4% [5]. - Non-HKFRS EPS is expected to be USD 0.13, USD 0.15, and USD 0.17 for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively [5].

管理层指，公司已做好充分准备以应对内存及晶片成本上升带来的压力，透过提高平均售价、改善产品 组合及存货管理来缓解影响。该行将2026至2028财年的经调整净利润预测分别上调5.7%、9.7%及 4.3%，至18.33亿美元、17.7亿美元及21.78亿美元，以反映PC和智能手机出货量，以及方案与服务业务 (SSG)与IDG和SSG业务的影响因素。 大华继显发布研报称，联想集团(00992)第三财季业绩表现稳健，主要受惠于各业务板块收入增长较预 期强劲，以及经营利润率具韧性，维持"持有"评级，目标价由9.7港元微升至9.85港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，联想集团(00992)第三财季业绩表现稳健，主要受惠于各业务 板块收入增长较预期强劲，以及经营利润率具韧性，维持"持有"评级，目标价由9.7港元微升至9.85港 元。 管理层指，公司已做好充分准备以应对内存及晶片成本上升带来的压力，透过提高平均售价、改善产品 组合及存货管理来缓解影响。该行将2026至2028财年的经调整净利润预测分别上调5.7%、9.7%及 4.3%，至18.33亿美元、17.7亿美元及21.78亿美元，以反映PC和智能手机出货量，以及方案与服务业务 (SSG)与IDG和SSG业务的影响因素。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its performance and market position [8]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected earnings, with a significant order backlog of $15.5 billion for AI servers, showcasing strong growth potential in this segment [2][8]. - The company’s revenue for FY25/26Q3 reached $22.204 billion, reflecting an 18.13% year-over-year increase, while adjusted net profit rose by 35.54% [8]. - The PC segment continues to lead the industry, with revenue of $15.755 billion in FY25/26Q3, a 14.30% increase year-over-year, outperforming global PC shipment growth [8]. - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported revenue of $5.176 billion, a 31.42% increase, with AI servers showing double-digit growth [8]. - The company is expected to effectively manage the impact of rising storage costs due to its robust supply chain and procurement capabilities [8]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for FY25/26, FY26/27, and FY27/28 are $79.485 billion, $91.551 billion, and $105.244 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $1.672 billion, $2.029 billion, and $2.433 billion [7][9]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve, with a projected PE ratio of 8.5x for FY25/26, decreasing to 5.9x by FY27/28 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (0992.HK) [6] Core Insights - The overall impact of storage price increases is manageable, and the strategic restructuring plan is expected to accelerate the return to profitability for the ISG business [1] - In FY26Q3, Lenovo's revenue reached $22.204 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year increase and a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI-related business revenue growing by 72% and accounting for 32% of total revenue [1] - The adjusted net profit for FY26Q3 was $589 million, a 36% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase, primarily due to the exclusion of one-time restructuring costs [1] IDG Business (Intelligent Devices Group) - In FY26Q3, IDG business revenue was $15.755 billion, up 14% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter, driven by high growth in AI PC revenue and increased sales of high-end products [2] - The PC business revenue grew by 18% year-over-year, with Lenovo's global market share reaching 25.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [2] - Smartphone sales and activations reached historical highs, supported by strong performance from high-end models [2] ISG Business (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG business revenue in FY26Q3 was $5.176 billion, a 31% year-over-year increase and a 27% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI server revenue showing high double-digit growth [3] - The company has a project reserve amounting to $15.5 billion, and the deployment of NVIDIA's solutions has been initiated [3] - A one-time restructuring cost of $285 million was incurred to optimize the product mix and improve productivity [3] SSG Business (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG business revenue in FY26Q3 was $2.652 billion, up 18% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter, marking 19 consecutive quarters of double-digit year-over-year growth [4] - The operating profit margin was 22.5%, close to historical highs, with maintenance services and project solutions being the core growth drivers [4] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The FY26 net profit forecast has been raised by 4% to $1.682 billion due to better-than-expected FY26Q3 performance, while FY27 and FY28 net profit forecasts remain at $1.743 billion and $1.917 billion, respectively [4]