FY2026Q1 公司收入188.3 亿美元，同比增长21.9%，non-gaap 归母净利润3.89亿美元，同比增长 21.8%，净利率2.1%（同比持平），分业务看： 机构：开源证券 研究员：张可/杨哲 关税影响有望逐步弱化，下半年AI PC 加速渗透在即 受益于AI PC 加速渗透、AI 服务器需求旺盛、软硬协同强化，联想三大业务有望延续增长韧性，考虑 到ISG 亏损带来业绩不确定性，我们下调FY2026-2028财年non-gaap归母净利润至16.7/19.6/23.0亿美元 （前次为17.3/21.9/26.6亿美元），同比增长15.9%/17.2%/17.5%，考虑潜在可转债摊薄，当前股价对应 PE 估值为12.3/10.5/8.9 倍，维持"买入"评级。 FY2026Q1 AI 渗透率提升超预期，研发投入致使ISG 呈现亏损 （1）IDG：实现收入134.6 亿美元，2025Q2 联想/行业PC 出货量同比增长15.2%/6.5%（IDC 数据），联 想明显优于行业，系win11 换机潮背景下的国补+AIPC 渗透率提升，2Q25Q2 联想AI PC 在全球PC 出货 量占比已达到31%，超我 ...

机构：国证国际 基础设施方案业务：AI 服务器收入翻倍，双轨战略成效初显ISG 营收同比大增36%，呈现强劲增长动 能。其中AI 基础设施业务营收同比翻番，液冷技术方案收入增长近30%。云基础设施（CSP）与企业基 础设施（E/SMB）并行发展的双轨战略效果初显，中国市场收入及经营溢利率提升，尽管因扩大人工智 能能力等投资，录得8552 万美元经营亏损，但长期增长潜力巨大。 事件：联想集团发布2025/26 财年Q1 业绩，营收同比增长22%至188.3 亿美元，创历史同期新高，三大 业务集团均实现双位数增长，非PC 业务占比提升至47%，多元化增长结构持续优化。净利润为5.05 亿 美元，同比增长108%；非香港财务报告准则下净利润3.89 亿美元，同比增长22%，业绩表现超市场预 期。公司坚定执行混合式人工智能战略，研发投入同比增长10%，深化"由3S 迈向AI 双胞胎"，强化混 合式AI 与"一体多端""端-边-云"能力，预计盈利能力将逐步改善。 报告摘要 智能设备业务：PC 份额创新高，手机业务持续增长IDG 实现营收134.6 亿美元，同比增长17.8%。根据 公司引用IDC 的资料，期间公司PC ...

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported strong financial performance for 1QFY26, with revenue reaching $18.83 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, marking a record high for the first quarter [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 1QFY26 was $18.83 billion, up 22% year-on-year, with significant growth across regions: China (+36%), Asia Pacific (+39%), Americas (+14%), and EMEA (+9%) [1] - Non-HKFRS net profit was $389 million, a 22% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $505 million, up 108% [1] - The increase in net profit was partly due to a non-cash fair value gain of $152 million related to warrants and nominal interest of $27.82 million from convertible bonds [1] Business Trends - The PC business showed strong growth, with IDG revenue increasing by 17.8% to $13.46 billion, and personal PC revenue growing by 21.9%, the fastest growth in 15 quarters [1] - Lenovo's global PC shipment growth of 15.2% outpaced the industry average of 6.5%, leading to a market share of 24.6% [1] - AI PC shipments accounted for over 30% of total PC shipments in 2Q25, with a 27% share in the Chinese market, highlighting Lenovo's leadership in the AI PC sector [1] - The "Tianxi" personal super intelligent system has seen increased user engagement, with a weekly active user ratio averaging 40% by the end of 2Q25 [1] AI Infrastructure - ISG revenue reached $4.29 billion, a 36% year-on-year increase, despite an operating loss of $86 million due to lower margins from AI server sales and increased R&D investments [2] - AI infrastructure revenue grew by 155% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI computing power [2] - In China, ISG revenue increased by 76%, with improved profitability and a 3 percentage point rise in operating profit margin [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has cautiously raised FY2026/27 non-HKFRS net profit estimates by 2.3% and 2.8% to $1.687 billion and $1.968 billion, respectively [2] - Current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 10.3x for FY2026 and 8.8x for FY2027, with a target price of HKD 13.40, indicating a 24% upside potential [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.4, representing a potential upside of 31.7% from the recent closing price of HKD 10.93 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 FY2025/26 earnings that exceeded market expectations, with revenue increasing by 22% year-over-year to USD 18.83 billion, marking a historical high for the same period. Net profit reached USD 505 million, up 108% year-over-year, indicating strong performance across all business segments [1][4]. - The company is committed to its hybrid AI strategy, with R&D investment increasing by 10% year-over-year, aiming to enhance its AI capabilities and improve profitability over time [1][3]. Summary by Sections Smart Devices Business - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated revenue of USD 13.46 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17.8%. The company's global PC market share reached a record high of 24.6%, with AI PC (AIPC) shipments accounting for over 30% of total PC shipments [2]. - The AIPC penetration rate continues to rise, with AIPC shipments in the Chinese market representing 27% of total notebook shipments. The smartphone business has achieved double-digit revenue growth for seven consecutive quarters [2]. Infrastructure Solutions Business - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw revenue grow by 36% year-over-year, with AI infrastructure revenue doubling and liquid cooling technology revenue increasing by nearly 30%. The dual-track strategy of cloud infrastructure (CSP) and enterprise infrastructure (E/SMB) is showing positive results [2][3]. - Despite recording an operating loss of USD 8.55 million due to investments in AI capabilities, the long-term growth potential remains significant [2]. Solutions Services Business - The Solutions Services Group (SSG) reported a revenue increase of 19.8% to RMB 16.3 billion, achieving a historical high with an operating profit margin of 22.2%, up 1.2 percentage points year-over-year. Strong growth in TruScale orders and high-end services such as hybrid cloud and AI solutions are driving future growth [3]. Strategic Progress - The company is firmly executing its hybrid AI strategy, focusing on scalable AI-driven solutions through its "one body, multiple ends" and "edge-cloud" platforms. The AIPC serves as a personal AI entry point, enhancing supply chain resilience and cost efficiency [3]. Financial and Valuation Summary - For FY2025/26 and FY2026/27, the adjusted net profit is projected to be USD 1.63 billion (up 13.0% year-over-year) and USD 1.89 billion (up 15.9% year-over-year), respectively. The estimated P/E ratio for FY2025/26 is 14.0x [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Lenovo Group (992) [2] Core Insights - Lenovo Group demonstrated resilience in its supply chain and operational efficiency, leading to a continuous improvement in profit margins despite a slight decline in overall gross margin [3] - The company achieved a revenue growth of 22% year-on-year in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025/26, with a non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards operating profit of $630 million, up 10% year-on-year [3][4] - The report highlights strong growth across all main business segments, with significant contributions from the IDG, ISG, and SSG divisions [5][9][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The first quarter of fiscal year 2025/26 saw a revenue of $18.83 billion, reflecting a 22% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 14.7%, down 1.9 percentage points [3][16] - Non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards net profit reached $390 million, a 22% increase year-on-year, while the Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards net profit was $510 million, up 108% [3] Business Segment Performance - IDG business revenue was $13.5 billion, growing 18% year-on-year, with a stable operating profit margin of 7.1% [5][12] - ISG business revenue increased by 36% to $4.3 billion, with AI server revenue more than doubling, although operating profit was negative due to low-margin customer revenue and increased R&D costs [9] - SSG business revenue reached $2.3 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, maintaining a strong operating profit margin of 22% [12] Market Dynamics - The Chinese market showed a significant recovery with a 36% revenue growth, while the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions also reported strong growth rates of 14% and 39%, respectively [4] - The company gained market share in the Americas, with a PC market share of 24.6%, while the European, Middle Eastern, and African markets grew by 9% [4] Future Projections - Revenue is projected to reach $69.08 billion in fiscal year 2024/25, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5%, and expected to continue growing to $76 billion in 2025/26 [17] - The forecasted net profit for fiscal year 2025/26 is $1.7 billion, reflecting a 22.8% year-on-year increase [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Lenovo is expected to benefit from the accelerated penetration of AI PCs and strong demand for AI servers, despite short-term pressure on ISG profitability due to increased R&D investments. The non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY2026-2028 have been adjusted to $1.67 billion, $1.96 billion, and $2.30 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.9%, 17.2%, and 17.5% [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 Q1, Lenovo reported revenue of $18.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with a non-GAAP net profit of $389 million, also up 21.8%. The net profit margin remained stable at 2.1% [5] - The breakdown of revenue by business segments shows: - IDG: Revenue of $13.46 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 15.2% in PC shipments, significantly outperforming the industry [5] - ISG: Revenue of $4.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, with AI server revenue more than doubling [5] - SSG: Revenue of $2.26 billion, up 19.8%, with deferred revenue of $3.5 billion, indicating strong business predictability [5] Business Outlook - The report anticipates continued momentum in PC shipments and AI PC penetration, supported by the ongoing Windows 10 replacement cycle and reduced tariff impacts. The ISG segment is expected to return to profitability as demand for AI servers increases [6] - The SSG segment has gained attention due to rising enterprise AI demand, with its operating profit contribution exceeding 50% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 16.00, up from the previous HKD 15.30, reflecting a 4.4% increase [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a 1QFY26 revenue of USD 18.83 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.0%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 7.2%. The Non-HKFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 389 million, also up 22.0% year-over-year, driven by strong demand from global mixed AI developments [1][5]. - The gross margin for 1QFY26 was 14.7%, a decline of 1.9 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to the suspension of H20 shipments in the infrastructure segment and changes in product mix [1]. Summary by Segment IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) - IDG revenue grew by 18.0% year-over-year in 1QFY26, with operating profit increasing by 15.0% year-over-year. The global PC market share reached a record high of 24.6%, with AI PC penetration exceeding 30% [2]. - The PC business revenue increased by 20.0% year-over-year, maintaining a leading position in the Windows AI PC sector [2]. ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG revenue rose by 36.0% year-over-year in 1QFY26, driven by continued capital expenditures from global CSP customers in AI and traditional servers. However, the segment recorded an operating loss of USD 85.52 million due to the suspension of H20 shipments and increased R&D investments [3]. - Future improvements in revenue and profitability are expected with the launch of new products and the resumption of H20 sales [3]. SSG (Solution Services Group) - SSG revenue increased by 20.0% year-over-year in 1QFY26, marking the 17th consecutive quarter of growth. The segment's revenue from support services and AI solutions showed strong performance, particularly in manufacturing and supply chain sectors [4]. - The overall contribution of these services to SSG's total revenue increased by 3 percentage points to 58% [4]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenue growth of 0.7%, 2.3%, and 3.8% for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively. Non-HKFRS net profits are projected to be USD 1.69 billion, USD 1.89 billion, and USD 2.12 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 17.6%, 11.3%, and 12.4% [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group emphasizes its commitment to R&D investment as a core strategy for advancing in the mixed AI era, with a notable increase in R&D spending and innovative product developments [2][4]. R&D Investment - In the first quarter of the fiscal year 25/26, Lenovo reported a 10% year-on-year increase in R&D investment, totaling $524 million, with the R&D team nearing 20,000 employees, representing 28% of the total workforce [1][2]. - The sustained R&D investment is aimed at driving AI technology innovation and solidifying Lenovo's leadership in commercial, consumer, and gaming PC sectors, as well as the new Windows AIPC category [2]. Product Innovations - Lenovo has transitioned its industry-first rollable screen PC from concept to mass production, enhancing multitasking efficiency through dynamic screen size expansion [2]. - A concept device utilizing advanced solar technology has completed engineering validation, achieving over 30% improvement in battery life, providing a green solution for future mobile AI computing [2]. - The Neptune liquid cooling technology iteration offers 100% heat dissipation capability for AI servers, allowing high-density computing without dedicated air conditioning [2]. Strategic Partnerships - Lenovo has established a strategic partnership with Alat E-NET in the Middle East, being the only company to localize production and build manufacturing capabilities in the region, with factory construction ahead of schedule [4]. - Alat E-NET has invested $2 billion in Lenovo, marking a significant investment in the global high-tech sector, second only to Uber [4]. - This partnership is expected to open vast opportunities for Lenovo in the server, AI, and mobile sectors, leveraging locally produced products to serve the Middle Eastern market [4]. Market Focus and Resilience - Lenovo remains focused on executing its strategic goals, concentrating on market share and profitability amidst global AI demand surges and changing macroeconomic conditions [5]. - The company's leading global supply chain and manufacturing layout provide strong support for sustainable growth and enhance its resilience in adapting to market changes [5].

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported a strong performance for the first quarter of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, with revenue reaching 136.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, marking a historical high for the same period [2] Group Summaries Financial Performance - The net profit under non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards increased by 22% to 2.816 billion yuan [2] - According to Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards, net profit surged by 108% to 3.66 billion yuan, primarily due to changes in the fair value of stock warrants [3] Business Segments - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated revenue of 97.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 17.8%, with the PC business achieving its fastest growth in 15 quarters [2] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw revenue growth of 35.8% [2] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) reported a revenue increase of 19.8%, with an operating profit margin of 22.2% [2] AI and Market Position - AI PC shipments accounted for over 30% of total PC shipments, with AI PC shipments in the Chinese market reaching 27% of total notebook shipments [3] - The active user ratio for the "Tianxi" personal super intelligent agent reached an average of 40% [3] - Lenovo is advancing the construction of a unified AI entry point and exploring new paradigms for intelligent experiences across devices and ecosystems [3] Strategic Initiatives - Lenovo is building a full-stack AI product system centered on hybrid cloud platforms, intelligent agent management platforms, and industry-specific solution libraries [3] - The AI infrastructure business experienced a revenue increase of 155% year-on-year [3] - The company aims to shift market focus towards its core operational performance as reflected in non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards [3]

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a 22% year-on-year revenue growth for Q1 of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, reaching 136.2 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The company's net profit under non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards also increased by 22% to 2.816 billion yuan [1] Business Segments Performance - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated revenue of 97.3 billion yuan, a 17.8% increase, with the PC business achieving its fastest growth in 15 quarters [1] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw a revenue growth of 35.8% [1] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) reported a revenue increase of 19.8%, with an operating profit margin of 22.2% [1] AI and Market Trends - Non-PC business revenue now accounts for 47% of total revenue, indicating a more balanced growth structure and supporting the company's mixed AI strategy [1] - Lenovo's AI PC shipments exceeded 30% of total PC shipments, with AI PC shipments in the Chinese market reaching 27% of total notebook shipments [2] - The "Tianxi" personal super intelligent agent has seen a significant increase in user engagement, with a weekly active user ratio averaging 40% [2] AI Infrastructure and Product Development - Lenovo is building a comprehensive AI product system centered around a hybrid cloud platform, intelligent agent management platform, and industry-specific solution library [2] - The AI infrastructure business experienced a remarkable 155% year-on-year revenue growth [2] - The company is developing an AI model factory and intelligent agent platform to enhance its mixed AI capabilities [2] Financial Reporting and Market Focus - Under Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards, Lenovo's net profit increased by 108% to 3.66 billion yuan, primarily due to non-cash gains from stock option valuation changes [2] - The management emphasizes that non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards provide a clearer reflection of the company's core operational performance and quality [2]