拉夫罗夫在采访中表示，俄美已商定建立双边经济工作组，将在日内瓦军事政治谈判之外单独讨论经贸 问题。俄方希望了解特朗普政府对"互利合作"的具体定义。此前，特朗普政府在安克雷奇会晤后数周对 卢克石油、俄罗斯石油公司实施制裁，并要求印度停止购买俄油，恢复委内瑞拉石油行业工作但禁止俄 罗斯等国参与。拉夫罗夫称，"如果美国人真诚地说解决乌克兰问题后开始互利合作，那么目前他们正 试图将我们从世界能源市场排挤出去。"（央视新闻） 俄罗斯外交部当地时间2月18日发布外长拉夫罗夫此前接受采访实录。 ...

根据2月11日早些时候俄罗斯在线媒体Astra在其电报频道发布的消息，袭击发生的时间为周三凌晨，伏 尔加格勒响起了几次爆炸声。当地居民拍摄的视频显示，爆炸的目标可能正是卢克-伏尔加格勒石油炼 油厂。Astra进一步引用伏尔加格勒州长安德烈·博查罗夫的电报频道声明，称俄罗斯国防部防空部队成 功击退了无人机的大规模袭击。然而，由于无人机碎片的掉落，导致炼油厂发生了石油产品泄漏并引发 了大火。消防队员迅速赶到现场展开灭火工作，初步报告显示，幸运的是，事件并未造成人员伤亡。 最近的两周里，乌克兰的无人机频频袭击俄罗斯的能源设施、军工厂等重要目标，虽然这些消息时常见 诸报端，但其中涉及炼油厂的却相对较少。那么，乌克兰是否开始对俄罗斯的成品油短缺、油价上涨以 及出口收入大幅下降表示同情呢？答案显然是否定的！2月11日，《基辅独立报》报道，凌晨时分，乌 克兰无人机对俄罗斯伏尔加格勒的炼油厂发动了袭击。炸弹引爆后，炼油厂瞬间爆发出巨大的火光和浓 烟。 乌克兰的无人机行动已经不再局限于边境地区，它们已经深入俄罗斯本土以及乌克兰的俄军占领区，频 繁袭击包括炼油厂、油库、空军基地、军工厂等重要能源和军事设施。乌克兰之所以将这些能源 ...

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies has regained full ownership of the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands by acquiring the remaining 45% stake from Russia's Lukoil, indicating a strategic move to consolidate its operations in the region [1] Company Summary - TotalEnergies has successfully re-acquired the 45% stake in the Zeeland refinery, which enhances its control over the facility and aligns with its broader strategic objectives [1] - The acquisition reflects TotalEnergies' commitment to strengthening its position in the European refining market [1] Industry Summary - The move by TotalEnergies to take full ownership of the Zeeland refinery may signal a trend of consolidation within the oil refining sector, particularly in response to geopolitical factors affecting ownership structures [1] - This acquisition could impact the competitive landscape in the European oil market, as companies reassess their positions amid changing dynamics [1]

Group 1 - At least two companies, including Chevron, are competing for Lukoil's global assets [1] - Lukoil had initially agreed to sell its portfolio to U.S. private equity firm Carlyle [1]

Core Insights - The UAE, particularly Abu Dhabi and Dubai, is emerging as a strategic hub for capital flows related to sanctioned entities, providing financial and geopolitical leverage for firms like Carlyle and companies such as Lukoil [1][6][14] - Carlyle's investment strategy focuses on navigating fragmented markets and capitalizing on geopolitical dynamics rather than outright ownership of energy assets, positioning itself as a key player in the evolving energy landscape [2][9][14] - The relationship between Carlyle, Lukoil, and the UAE illustrates a shift in global energy geopolitics, where control over capital pathways and strategic partnerships is becoming more critical than traditional production metrics [3][13][14] Group 1: Carlyle's Strategy and Positioning - Carlyle's approach to energy investments emphasizes structuring exposure to cash flows and optionality, particularly in politically sensitive regions [2][5] - The firm is leveraging dislocation in the market caused by sanctions and geopolitical tensions to extract value from mispriced assets, focusing on minority stakes and structured finance [9][12] - Carlyle's interest in Lukoil is not a bet on Russia's resurgence but rather a strategic move to navigate a fragmented energy landscape [5][11] Group 2: Lukoil's Market Dynamics - Lukoil's international assets remain valuable despite constraints imposed by Western sanctions, with the company seeking to monetize these assets in a politically charged environment [4][10] - The demand for Lukoil's assets is influenced by the need for flexibility in logistics and trading, as buyers are increasingly seeking discounts in a competitive market [4][5] - Lukoil's relative autonomy and willingness to restructure holdings make it an attractive counterparty for investors looking to engage without overt political branding [5][9] Group 3: UAE's Strategic Role - The UAE is repositioning itself as a global allocator of capital, focusing on influence across energy supply chains rather than merely on resource extraction [6][8] - By facilitating access to Lukoil's opportunities, the UAE aims to strengthen ties with Russia while maintaining a neutral stance in the geopolitical landscape [6][10] - The UAE's financial infrastructure is being utilized to manage politically complex assets, positioning it as a key player in the future of global energy markets [6][14]

Core Viewpoint - The sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian oil companies have significantly widened the price gap between Urals crude oil and Brent crude oil, indicating a substantial impact on Russia's oil revenue and economic stability [1][4]. Group 1: Price Impact and Revenue Decline - The discount on Urals crude oil has increased from approximately $15 per barrel to over $24 per barrel, leading to a projected 20% year-on-year decline in Russia's energy revenue by 2025 [4]. - In December, the price of Urals crude oil fell to $39.2 per barrel, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic [4]. - A former Russian energy executive reported that Urals crude oil sold to India has been priced as low as $22 to $25 per barrel, barely covering production costs [5]. Group 2: Fiscal Pressure and Deficit - Russia's fiscal deficit is expected to reach 2.6% of GDP by 2025, five times the planned level, marking the longest deficit period in Putin's tenure [5]. - The Russian government anticipates a significant budget deficit in early 2026 due to reduced energy revenues and increased government spending [6]. - If Urals crude oil prices deviate by $10 from budget expectations, Russia's fiscal revenue could decrease by 1.5 to 1.8 trillion rubles [6]. Group 3: Changes in Export Dynamics - The structure of Russian oil exports has shifted, with a 23% increase in crude oil exports to China in December, while exports to India dropped by 29% [6]. - The number of oil tankers with undisclosed destinations has increased, indicating a rise in floating storage of crude oil [7]. - The use of transshipment points like Egypt and Singapore has surged, as these locations serve as intermediaries for Russian oil exports [9]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Implications - The share of energy revenue in Russia's fiscal budget has decreased from over 50% at its peak to about 24%, the lowest in at least a decade [10]. - The ongoing sanctions are creating a "slow and cumulative squeezing effect" on Russia's fiscal stability, potentially harming long-term economic growth and increasing macroeconomic imbalances [10]. - The reliance on oil revenue remains high, and the current market conditions have left Russia in a vulnerable position [12].

Group 1 - Carlyle Group is set to acquire the majority of Lukoil's foreign assets, which are initially valued at $22 billion by analysts [1]

Group 1 - The Kremlin does not comment on reports regarding a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine concerning energy infrastructure, emphasizing the importance of respecting the interests of Lukoil [1] - The Kremlin is awaiting a response from the U.S. regarding President Putin's proposal to extend the nuclear treaty limitations [1] - The Kremlin refrains from commenting on the Carlyle Group's acquisition of a majority of Lukoil's overseas assets, stating that these are corporate agreements [1] Group 2 - The Kremlin urges all parties involved in the Iran crisis to exercise restraint and avoid the use of force, warning that military action could lead to chaos in the region and extremely dangerous consequences [1] - There remains potential for negotiations regarding the Iran issue, despite the current tensions [1] - Discussions between President Putin and Syrian President Assad included topics related to Russian military bases [1]

Core Viewpoint - Russia's second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, has agreed to sell its foreign asset management unit, LUKOIL International GmbH, to the U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group [1] Company Summary - Lukoil is a major player in the Russian oil industry, being the second-largest oil producer in the country [1] - The sale involves LUKOIL International GmbH, which is responsible for overseeing Lukoil's foreign assets [1] Industry Summary - The transaction highlights ongoing trends in the oil and gas sector, particularly the involvement of private equity firms in acquiring foreign assets from major oil producers [1]

Following the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil, which operated one of Iraq’s largest oilfields, Baghdad temporarily took control over the West Qurna 2 project, which accounts for 10% of all Iraqi oil production and 0.5% of global crude supply. Lukoil had a 75% equity stake in West Qurna 2, which produces more than 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil. The U.S. sanctions made it impossible for Lukoil to continue operating the huge field. Following the U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, “as a r ...