J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 04 December 2025 Oil Markets Weekly Two weeks in—assessing the early impact of Russia sanctions Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com Lyuba Savinova (1-212) 270-3781 lyuba.savinova@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA {[{-M8qAsmq5A_F8c4rlNai3e56JB7o430cCPuNzl61-I8ZuK6-CUCqX9qPqqCUkSFAFU1eyT-xi34wvYG3}]} • Despite the expansion of sanctions and the expiration of the transition window on 21 November, Russian crude flows i ...

美国财政部于周四宣布，延长对俄罗斯能源巨头卢克石油境外品牌加油站的运营授权，同时暂停该公司 面临的部分制裁措施。这一调整在俄乌冲突持续背景下引发广泛关注，被视为美国对俄能源制裁政策的 一次微妙松动。 巧合的是，放宽对卢克石油限制的消息，与白宫谈判代表赴莫斯科同普京会面的时间高度重合，双方正 推动达成结束冲突的相关协议。而欧盟最高外交官上月已公开表达担忧，称俄罗斯可能利用美国的和平 提议拖延制裁执行。事实上，欧盟此前也曾因能源供应压力，对俄石油实施"限价而非禁运"的折中方 案，此次美国的举措与欧盟的务实策略形成呼应。 能源分析师指出，美国的调整本质是"精准松绑"，既保障本土民生与供应链稳定，又未实质性放松对俄 核心能源出口的限制。但这一信号可能影响国际社会对俄制裁的协同性，后续需关注美俄谈判进展与欧 盟的跟进举措，其对全球能源格局的长期影响仍待观察。 斯洛伐克的卢克石油加油站。 自2022年2月俄乌冲突爆发以来，卢克石油已累计遭遇美欧超20项制裁，其海外资产冻结规模达120亿美 元，原油出口量较冲突前下降28%。此次美国财政部明确表示，扩大授权范围是为"减轻消费者和供应 商在日常交易中的损害"，数据显示，若卢克 ...

Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones down 0.07%, Nasdaq up 0.22%, and S&P 500 up 0.11% [1][12] - Technology stocks had a varied performance, with Meta and Oracle rising over 3%, while Intel fell over 7% [1][12] - Snowflake's stock dropped 8.3% due to disappointing profit margin outlook, while UiPath surged 7.5% after exceeding Q3 expectations [1][12] Group 2: Individual Company Developments - Meta's CEO announced plans to cut up to 30% of investments in the metaverse-related business, leading to a pre-market rise of over 5% [1][12] - Dollar General raised its full-year earnings guidance, resulting in a 5.6% increase in its stock price [1][12] - Tiger Brokers reported record high Q3 revenue and non-GAAP net profit, with a pre-market surge of 9.2% [1][12] Group 3: Commodity and Cryptocurrency Markets - WTI crude oil prices surpassed $60 per barrel, increasing by 1.79% [3][14] - Bitcoin fell below $92,000, with a daily decline of 2.62% [3][14] - Gold prices fluctuated significantly, breaking through $4,250 per ounce before dropping to $4,240 [2][13] Group 4: Forex and Economic Policy - The British pound reached its highest level against the US dollar since October 24, rising 0.2% to $1.3373 [4][15] - The White House's economic advisor indicated a potential 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting [4][15] Group 5: Domestic Market Developments - Taobao's flash sale platform announced voluntary compliance with national standards for food delivery services, aiming to enhance service quality and consumer experience [10][21][22]

Group 1 - Romania has approved the confiscation of assets from Russian oil giant Lukoil, including the third-largest refinery in Romania and over 350 oil and gas facilities [3] - The Romanian Energy Minister Bogdan Ivan stated the necessity to control Lukoil's subsidiaries in the country to ensure the stability of the energy system [3] - Romania supports the EU's increased sanctions against Russia, with similar actions occurring in Bulgaria [5] Group 2 - The EU has reached an agreement to completely stop importing Russian natural gas by November 1, 2027 [5] - Upcoming sanctions are expected to extend to Russian oil imports, indicating a serious commitment from Europe to sever energy ties with Moscow [6] - The EU plans to provide €90 billion in aid to Ukraine over the next two years, utilizing frozen Russian assets and international market borrowing [10][11] Group 3 - The funding for Ukraine will be issued as loans, which will only need to be repaid after Moscow pays war reparations [11] - The EU's approach to supporting Ukraine while using Russian funds reflects a complex strategy to navigate internal opposition and pro-Moscow sentiments within the EU [13] - The increasing security ties between Ukraine and Europe have significant implications for the region [15]

Core Insights - ExxonMobil is in discussions with the Iraqi Oil Ministry to potentially acquire Lukoil's majority stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield, as Lukoil seeks to divest its global assets due to US sanctions [1][3] - The West Qurna 2 oilfield is significant, representing approximately 0.5% of global oil supply and 9% of Iraq's total output, with an estimated market value of $1.6 billion [2] - Lukoil currently holds a 75% operational stake in West Qurna 2, producing around 470,000 barrels per day, with reserves exceeding eight billion barrels [2] Group 1: Acquisition Context - The US Treasury has allowed potential buyers to negotiate with Lukoil until December 13, but specific transactions will require further approval [3] - ExxonMobil, alongside Chevron, is exploring opportunities to acquire parts of Lukoil's portfolio [3] - Lukoil declared force majeure at West Qurna 2 after Iraq suspended cash and crude payments to the company [3] Group 2: ExxonMobil's Activities in Iraq - In October, Exxon signed a non-binding agreement with Iraq to assist in developing the Majnoon oilfield and expanding oil exports, marking its return to the country after nearly two years [4] - A senior Iraqi oil official indicated that Exxon is the preferred option to take over Lukoil's stake due to its capacity and experience [5] - Abu Dhabi's International Holding Company has also shown interest in acquiring Lukoil's foreign assets [5]

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil is interested in acquiring Lukoil's majority stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield in Iraq, marking a significant return of the U.S. company to the region as Lukoil seeks to divest its international assets due to U.S. sanctions [1][2]. Group 1: Exxon Mobil's Interest and Actions - Exxon has approached the Iraqi oil ministry regarding the acquisition of Lukoil's stake in West Qurna 2 [1]. - The U.S. Treasury has allowed potential buyers to negotiate with Lukoil until December 13, but specific deals will require approval [2]. - Exxon previously operated the adjacent West Qurna 1 project before exiting last year [3]. Group 2: Lukoil's Situation - Lukoil is attempting to sell its international assets following U.S. sanctions, with its largest foreign asset being a 75% operational stake in West Qurna 2 [2]. - The West Qurna 2 oilfield produces approximately 470,000 barrels per day, accounting for about 9% of Iraq's total oil output [2]. Group 3: Iraqi Oil Ministry's Position - The Iraqi oil ministry has expressed a preference for Exxon to take over Lukoil's stake, citing Exxon's capacity and experience [5]. - Iraq is actively inviting U.S. oil companies to negotiate for the takeover of West Qurna 2 [5]. Group 4: Recent Developments - In October, Exxon signed a non-binding agreement with Iraq to assist in developing the Majnoon oilfield and expanding oil exports [4]. - Iraq is seeking to accelerate oil and gas production by offering more favorable terms to foreign companies [4].

Group 1 - The Kremlin spokesperson, Peskov, stated that India's imports of Russian oil may only decline for a "very short time" as Moscow plans to use "advanced technology" to circumvent Western sanctions and increase supply [1] - India is set to reduce its Russian oil purchases to a three-year low this month due to Western sanctions, particularly those imposed by Washington on major Russian oil producers like Rosneft and Lukoil [1] - Peskov emphasized that Russia is working to create a "necessary environment" for buyers seeking to purchase its oil, asserting that the oil trade volume may experience a negligible decline in the short term [1] Group 2 - Indian refiners, including Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have ceased purchasing Russian oil [2] - State-owned Indian Oil Corporation has ordered Russian oil from non-sanctioned entities, while Bharat Petroleum Corporation is in advanced negotiations for imports [2] - Nayara Energy, backed by Russia and partially owned by Rosneft, is currently processing Russian oil, as other suppliers have withdrawn due to UK and EU sanctions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil is interested in acquiring Lukoil's majority stake in the West Qurna 2 oilfield in Iraq, indicating a strategic move to expand its oil production capabilities in the region [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Exxon Mobil has approached the Iraqi oil ministry regarding the potential acquisition of Lukoil's stake [1] - The interest in West Qurna 2 reflects Exxon Mobil's ongoing strategy to enhance its portfolio in key oil-producing regions [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The West Qurna 2 oilfield is a significant asset in Iraq's oil sector, highlighting the competitive landscape among major oil companies [1] - The move may signal a shift in investment dynamics in the Middle East, particularly concerning Russian assets amid geopolitical tensions [1]

Group 1 - Russian companies are focusing on expansion opportunities in the Global South despite Western sanctions, as stated by Andrei Kostin, CEO of VTB [1][2] - VTB has been involved in foreign acquisitions of oil companies, including the acquisition of India's Essar Oil, now known as Nayara Energy, in 2017 [2] - Nayara Energy is targeting the domestic Indian market exclusively, with no plans for exports, and continues to operate despite previous sanctions [3] Group 2 - Kostin believes that Russian oil companies like Rosneft and Lukoil will find new opportunities similar to VTB's shift in focus after sanctions [4] - The demand for Russian oil remains strong, and any restrictions that increase oil prices benefit exporters [4] - VTB plans to expand its presence in India by opening an office in Mumbai, recognizing India's potential to increase exports to Russia, particularly in machinery and pharmaceuticals [6]

据俄新社报道，对于美国此前在阿拉斯加州美俄领导人会晤后"突然"宣布制裁两家俄罗斯石油企业，俄 总统普京11月27日表示不理解。 普京与特朗普今年8月15日在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇举行会晤，双方均表示会晤"富有成果"，但未就 俄乌停火等问题达成任何协议。两个多月后，美国方面宣布，决定制裁俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公 司，原因与俄乌冲突有关。 责任编辑：刘础琪 普京回答记者提问时的画面图源：俄媒视频截图 根据克里姆林宫网站11月27日发布的消息，普京当天回答记者提问，就包括俄乌冲突在内多个议题作出 表态。谈及俄美就解决俄乌冲突保持接触，普京说，他曾前往阿拉斯加与美方举行了有关会谈。 "我想说，总体上，我们持以下观点：我们都明白对方立场以及制止战斗行动所需措施。"普京表 示，"随后我们各自返回，因为我的同行特朗普总统和我都认为，我们需要返回各自首都，仔细考虑， 与有关机构、部门以及盟友磋商。后来，我们也同意推进有关工作。" 普京接着称，但后来美国"突然"宣布对两家俄罗斯石油企业实施制裁，"这是为什么？说实话，我不理 解发生的事情"。 ...