Core Viewpoint - The implementation of new trade tariffs by President Trump is expected to impact various sectors of the stock market differently, particularly affecting consumer discretionary stocks due to their reliance on agricultural products and materials that influence retail prices [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Consumer Discretionary Stocks - Consumer discretionary stocks are experiencing significant declines, with market speculation suggesting that prices for everyday products may double or triple due to tariffs [2]. - Major brands like Nike, Lululemon, and Ralph Lauren are highlighted as potential investment opportunities despite the tariff challenges, as their market positions may allow them to weather the storm [3][5]. Group 2: Nike Stock Analysis - Nike's current stock price is $54.44, which is 58% of its 52-week high, with a 12-month price forecast of $86.19, indicating a potential upside of 58.34% [4]. - Institutional investment in Nike has been strong, with $94 million invested in the last quarter, reflecting confidence in the brand's ability to navigate tariff impacts [7]. - Analysts maintain a price target of $87.4 for Nike, suggesting a potential upside of 57.1% from current levels [7]. Group 3: Lululemon Stock Analysis - Lululemon's current stock price is $261.03, with a 12-month price forecast of $371.79, indicating a potential upside of 42.43% [9]. - The brand has maintained a premium valuation with a price-to-book ratio of 7.8x, compared to the discretionary sector's average of 3.9x [10][11]. - Analysts have set a price target of $378.3 for Lululemon, suggesting a potential upside of 43% [12]. Group 4: Ralph Lauren Stock Analysis - Ralph Lauren's current stock price is $197.89, with a 12-month price forecast of $277.43, indicating a potential upside of 40.20% [13]. - Despite an 18% decline in the past month, Ralph Lauren has outperformed Nike and Lululemon, showing resilience in the market [13][14]. - Goldman Sachs has set a price target of $286 for Ralph Lauren, implying a potential upside of 49% from current levels [15].

Company Performance - Lululemon's stock closed at $261.03, reflecting a +1.72% change from the previous trading day's close, which lagged behind the S&P 500's gain of 1.81% [1] - Over the past month, Lululemon shares have decreased by 17.13%, while the Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 have lost 7.73% and 6.14%, respectively [1] Upcoming Earnings - Lululemon is expected to report earnings of $2.61 per share, representing a year-over-year growth of 2.76%, with projected revenue of $2.35 billion, indicating a 6.58% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $14.98 per share and revenue at $11.22 billion, reflecting changes of +2.32% and +5.97% from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Lululemon are important as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism regarding the company's profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which considers these estimate changes, currently ranks Lululemon at 3 (Hold), following a 3.53% decline in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [6] Valuation Metrics - Lululemon has a Forward P/E ratio of 17.13, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 11.27 [7] - The company also has a PEG ratio of 2.15, higher than the industry average PEG ratio of 1.58, indicating a higher expected earnings growth rate relative to its price [7] Industry Context - The Textile - Apparel industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 83, placing it in the top 34% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing volatility due to the recent tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, significantly impacting apparel companies like Nike and Lululemon, with contrasting implications for their future performance [1][2]. Nike - Nike has faced a global slowdown, with a 9% year-over-year revenue decline last quarter and a drop in operating margin from 15% to 10.3% over the past few years [3][4]. - The company is heavily reliant on Asian manufacturing, particularly from China and Vietnam, which are now subject to high tariffs, potentially leading to a significant decrease in profit margins and revenue in the U.S. market [4][6]. - Nike's North American division, which generated $1.4 billion in operating income last quarter, is its most profitable segment, and any tariff-related losses could severely impact overall earnings [5]. - Revenue from China has also declined by 17% year-over-year, indicating challenges in replacing lost revenue from other markets [6]. Lululemon - Lululemon has shown stronger performance compared to Nike, with a 13% year-over-year revenue growth to $3.6 billion last quarter and a remarkable 46% increase in China revenue [7]. - The company has maintained a high operating margin of 24%, although tariffs may threaten this in the future [8]. - Lululemon's pricing power allows it to potentially increase prices without losing core customers, which may help mitigate the impact of tariffs [9]. - The brand is currently performing well and is positioned to succeed in various markets, particularly in China, despite the overall consumer slump [10]. Investment Outlook - Both Nike and Lululemon have similar trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, with Nike at 18 and Lululemon at 16.7, but Lululemon is experiencing faster growth [12]. - Lululemon is viewed as a more attractive investment opportunity due to its business momentum and potential for long-term gains, while Nike's declining revenue and profit margins suggest caution [13].

Core Insights - NIKE Inc. and lululemon athletica inc. are competing for dominance in the sportswear and apparel market, with NIKE holding a significant market share and brand recognition, while lululemon focuses on yoga-inspired lifestyle offerings and is expanding rapidly [1][2][4][9] Company Overview NIKE Inc. - NIKE is a global leader in sportswear, with a strong competitive advantage due to its iconic brands, extensive distribution network, and marketing partnerships [4] - The company is implementing strategic initiatives called "Win Now" to address operational challenges and restore growth, including rebuilding wholesale partnerships and accelerating innovation [5][6] - NIKE is focusing on product innovation and a faster development model to respond to consumer trends, with plans for new product launches in fiscal 2025 [7][8] lululemon athletica inc. - lululemon is strengthening its position in the athletic apparel market through an innovation-driven product strategy, with successful recent launches and a strong product pipeline [9][10] - The company has significant growth potential in international markets, with plans for aggressive brand activation and community engagement [10][11] - lululemon projects net sales of $11.15-$11.3 billion for fiscal 2025, indicating a year-over-year growth of 7-8% [11] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE's fiscal 2025 sales and EPS indicates declines of 10.7% and 45.6%, respectively, while lululemon's estimates suggest growth of 6.2% and 3.1% [12][13] - Year-to-date, NIKE shares have declined by 21.7%, while lululemon's stock has lost 28.4% [14] - NIKE's forward P/E multiple is 29.82X, above its three-year median, while lululemon's is 17.91X, below its median [15][18] Investment Outlook - lululemon's discounted valuation and strong growth narrative position it as a more compelling investment compared to NIKE, which is focusing on repositioning for long-term growth [18][21] - Both companies are navigating operational headwinds, but lululemon's financial strength and international growth potential provide a competitive edge [19][20]

* 注意：以下内文中涉及隐藏估值部分，公众号未完全展示，感兴趣的用户可进入长桥 App 后搜索 " 海豚投研 " ，查看同名文章，免费畅读完整内容。 上篇《 LULULEMON：一条黑裤而已，凭什么杀出血路？ 》 我们深入分析了LULU的成功是建立在极致产品力基础上独特的社群营销商业模式，那么站在当下， LULU未来的成长空间如何？是否仍然是值得投资的好标的？本篇海豚君带大家继续探讨： LULU在2022年4月公布了最新的5年增长计划， 目标在2026年实现较2021年翻倍的增长（营收达到125亿美元） 。从具体实现的路径上看，LULU计划 在男装上收 入翻倍，电商上收入翻倍，以及在国际市场上收入翻4倍 ，此外，管理层还针对品类、渠道、市场三个维度进行了更细致的展望，后文我们按照管理层的思路逐个 维度分析LULU未来的成长空间： 重要提示 欢迎用户欢迎 扫描下方二维码加入海豚交流群 ，我们所有的研报文章、调研纪要均会分享在群里，也可以和专业分析师探讨投资观点，分享投资心得。 女装 ： 高增阶段已过，持续优化&创新 。LULU的女装业务从品牌创立至今一直是LULU的核心收入来源，当前收入占比仍超60%。从LUL ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's stock has seen a significant increase of 321% over five years, but it currently trades 52% below its all-time high, raising questions about potential investment opportunities amid slowing growth and macroeconomic challenges [1]. Company Performance - In fiscal 2021, Lululemon reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 42.1%, which has since declined to 10.1% for fiscal 2024 [1]. - The company expects revenue growth of 5% to 7% for the current fiscal year, which, while lower than previous double-digit gains, is still better than the expected decline from competitors like Nike [7]. Macroeconomic Challenges - Consumer confidence has sharply declined, and the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates soon, contributing to a challenging economic environment [2]. - Lululemon sources 40% of its merchandise from Vietnam, where tariff negotiations have created uncertainty for the company [3]. Management Outlook - Lululemon's management has adopted a cautious tone, indicating that consumers are spending less due to inflation and economic concerns [4]. Brand Strength and Profitability - Lululemon has established a strong brand positioned at the premium end of the apparel market, which provides a competitive advantage [5]. - The company has maintained impressive profitability, with average gross and operating margins of 57.3% and 21.8% over the past five years [6]. Valuation Considerations - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.9, which is the lowest in the past decade, reflecting market pessimism [9]. - Despite the slower growth and tariff uncertainties, the current valuation may represent a new reality for investors [8].

| SYMBOL # | NAME + | PRICE * | CHANGE $ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GRAL | Grail Inc | 21.79 | -2.19 | | ON | ON Semiconductor Corp | 32.51 | -2.57 | | LULU | Lululemon Athletica Inc | 246.5 | -18.5 | | MSTR | MicroStrategy (Strategy) | 251.55 | -16.59 | | INTC | Intel Corp | 18.44 | -1.14 | | МСНР | Microchip Technology Inc | 35.88 | -2.21 | | PDD | PDD Holdings Inc | 94.23 | -5.79 | | NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV | 154.8 | -8.49 | | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc | 79.97 | -3.67 | | AAPL | Apple Inc ...

男性的消费力是垫底的 款羽绒夹克。 这是Lululemon亚太区首家男装集合店，它占据着商场一楼的黄金位置，紧挨直梯和旋转梯，logo醒 目，与香奈儿、始祖鸟等奢侈品牌比肩。 12月的一个周末，气温骤降，店里的销售额几乎都是靠这款羽绒夹克撑起来的。不少顾客是在其他 门店扑了个空，特意到这里来"抢货"。店员关臣（化名）确定，他们"应该都是被小红书种草的"。 重视"门面"的小红书潮男们，正在用lululemon填满自己的衣柜。他们能撑起这家公司的男装野心 吗？ 买了一年Lululemon，花了3万 打开小红书，在"潮男穿搭""氛围感男性穿搭"的Tag下，能看到各种类型的穿搭风格：简约老钱风、 日式男大风、以演员黄景瑜为标杆的痞帅硬汉风、标注身高185的江浙沪潮男风，以及最新跻身其中 的Lululemon男孩风。 以都市丽人为形象标签的Lululemon，正在拿捏小红书潮男。 Fast Reading 作者丨高越 30分钟内，位于北京朝阳区颐堤港的Lululemon迎来了五六拨年轻男顾客，无一例外，都要试穿同一 款羽绒夹克 ■ 将Lululemon视作最新时尚单品的小红书潮男们，为自己贴上有钱有闲、热爱运动的标签。 ...

Core Insights - Lululemon's year-over-year results are showing a slowdown, with conservative guidance reflecting slower consumer spending expectations [1][4] - Revenue growth has decreased significantly since its peak in 2022, with a reported 8% increase excluding the 54th week in fiscal 2024 [2][3] - The company is facing challenges due to high prices amid cautious consumer behavior, leading to weaker demand despite a 13% revenue increase in the fourth quarter [3][4] Financial Performance - Lululemon reported a nearly 83% increase in net income for 2024, amounting to $12.20 per diluted share [7] - The guidance for 2025 includes expectations for diluted earnings per share between $14.95 and $15.15, representing a conservative year-over-year increase of 2.1% [8] Market Challenges - The company is impacted by new tariffs on Vietnam, which produces 40% of its products, complicating its pricing strategy [5][6] - The ongoing tariff situation, particularly from the U.S. trade policies, adds pressure to Lululemon's operations and market positioning [6][7] - The stock has declined over 29% year-to-date due to fears surrounding tariffs and a weakened consumer environment [4][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that major US consumer companies are cautious about future fiscal year expectations, primarily due to tariff pressures and consumer downgrading trends in the US market. However, companies like Walmart and Lululemon express a more optimistic outlook for the Chinese market [3][23] - Recommendations include buying leading sportswear brand Anta Sports (02020), and considering Li Ning (02331), Xtep International (01368), and Tabo (06110) for buying or holding. Additionally, long-term prospects are favorable for resilient leading manufacturers such as Shenzhou International (02313), Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003), and Huali Group (300979) [3][23] Summary by Sections US Consumer Giants Performance - Walmart's FY26 revenue growth guidance is 3-4%, with a same-store sales increase of 23.1% in FY25Q4, driven by strong e-commerce and new store openings [10][13] - Target expects FY25 revenue growth of about 1%, with same-store sales remaining flat, facing pressure from tariffs and operational costs [14][15] - Dollar General anticipates FY25 revenue growth of 3.4-4.4%, with core consumers facing economic challenges and a notable trend of consumer downgrading [17][18] - Nike projects a mid-double-digit revenue decline for FY25Q4, with significant inventory issues and a 15% revenue drop in the Greater China region [19][20] - Lululemon expects FY25 revenue growth of 5-7%, with a strong growth forecast of 25-30% in the Greater China region [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US consumer giants due to tariff pressures and consumer behavior changes, while highlighting positive growth prospects in China for certain brands [3][23]