Market Overview - The overall market has performed well this year, with the S&P 500 still up double digits despite a recent pullback, which is viewed as a healthy sign [1] Analyst Background - The contributing analyst is part of the iREIT+Hoya Capital investment group and focuses on dividend investing in quality blue-chip stocks, BDCs, and REITs, aiming to help lower and middle-class workers build investment portfolios of high-quality, dividend-paying companies [2] Investment Position - The analyst has a beneficial long position in the shares of MO and VZ, indicating a personal investment interest in these companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group's forward dividend yield has reached 7.5% following a stock pullback, raising questions about the sustainability of its dividend amidst challenging trends in its business [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Altria's revenue net of excise taxes decreased by 1.7% year over year to $5.25 billion, while adjusted EPS rose by 3.6% to $1.45, falling short of analyst expectations for revenue of $5.32 billion [3] - Revenue net of excise taxes for the smokeable segment fell by 1.3% to $4.6 billion, with adjusted operating income increasing slightly by 0.7% to $2.96 billion [6] Shipment Trends - Overall shipment volumes for Altria dropped by 8.2%, with Marlboro brand shipments declining by 11.7% and other premium brands down by 9.7%. In contrast, discount brand shipments surged by 74.5% [4] - For the oral tobacco product segment, revenue net of excise taxes fell by 4.3% to $665 million, with shipment volumes decreasing by 9.6% to 178.2 million units [7] Market Dynamics - Economic pressures, including inflation, are causing adult smokers to shift from premium to discount brands, although Altria has gained market share in the discount segment [5] - Altria's Njoy e-vapor business is embroiled in a patent dispute with Juul, while facing competition from illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products, which constitute an estimated 60% of the market [6] Dividend and Valuation - Despite the challenges in its core cigarette business, Altria's dividend remains well covered, and its balance sheet is in good condition, making the stock appear more reasonably valued than earlier in the year [8]

Core Viewpoint - Low-volatility stocks may struggle to outperform the market over time, particularly during bull markets, highlighting the importance of careful investment selection [1] Group 1: Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) - Hamilton Insurance Group operates global specialty insurance and reinsurance platforms across four countries, with a rolling one-year beta of 0.31 [2] - The stock is currently trading at $25.68 per share, representing 0.9 times forward price-to-book ratio [4] - Concerns about HG include its performance in the market and potential underperformance compared to other investments [3] Group 2: Altria (MO) - Altria is best known for its Marlboro brand and offers a range of tobacco and nicotine products, with a rolling one-year beta of 0.03 [5] - The stock is priced at $57.20 per share, trading at 10.3 times forward price-to-earnings ratio [7] - Altria may present a strong investment opportunity due to its established market presence and product offerings [6] Group 3: Merck (MRK) - Merck develops and sells prescription medicines, vaccines, and animal health products, with a rolling one-year beta of 0.52 [8] - The company has faced challenges, including a projected flat revenue outlook and a 56.9% annual contraction in earnings per share over the past year [9] - Despite these challenges, Merck boasts a best-in-class gross margin of 70.9% and a healthy operating margin of 55%, indicating efficient operations [10] - Merck's massive revenue base of $64.23 billion provides significant negotiating power in a highly regulated sector [11] - The company has seen improvements in adjusted operating profits and free cash flow margin, enhancing its capacity for growth initiatives and shareholder returns [11]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) is recognized for its strong long-term performance in the stock market, despite the analyst's personal aversion to tobacco stocks [1][2]. Company Overview - Altria Group, Inc. produces and sells a variety of tobacco and nicotine products, including cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, nicotine pouches, and e-vapor products [2]. Investment Perspective - The stock has shown superior returns compared to many others, as noted during the analysis for "How to Make Money in Any Market" [1][2]. - Despite acknowledging Altria's investment potential, the analyst expresses a preference for other stocks, particularly in the AI sector, which are believed to offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [2].

Group 1 - The focus is on growth and dividend income as a strategy for retirement planning [1] - The portfolio is structured to generate monthly dividend income that grows through reinvestment and annual increases [1] Group 2 - The article expresses personal opinions and is not intended as investment advice [2] - It emphasizes the importance of conducting individual research before making investment decisions [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of dividend investing in quality blue-chip stocks, BDCs, and REITs for retirement income [1] - The author aims to assist lower and middle-class workers in building investment portfolios focused on high-quality, dividend-paying companies [1] - The perspective provided is intended to help investors achieve financial independence through strategic investment choices [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial performance data or metrics related to any particular company or industry [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Altria's third-quarter earnings report disappointed investors, leading to a significant decline in its stock price, which fell 15% following the report [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Altria reported a revenue decline of 3% in Q3, totaling $6.07 billion, which was below the consensus estimate of $5.31 billion [5][4]. - Adjusted earnings per share increased by 3.6% to $1.45, matching analyst expectations [7]. Market Trends - Cigarette shipments fell sharply, with Marlboro shipments down 11.7% to 14.2 billion and total cigarette shipments down 8.2% to 16.2 billion [6]. - There was a notable 74.5% increase in discount cigarette shipments to 1.2 billion, indicating consumers are opting for cheaper alternatives due to discretionary spending pressures [6]. Future Outlook - The company raised its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $5.37-$5.45, still below the consensus of $5.44 [8]. - Altria increased its dividend by 3.9% to $4.24 annualized per share, marking its 60th increase in 56 years [8]. Strategic Challenges - Altria continues to face difficulties in transitioning from traditional cigarettes to next-generation products, following a failed investment in Juul Labs and subsequent acquisition of NJOY [9]. - The company is making progress with its On! product and is working on obtaining approvals for Ploom and Marlboro heated tobacco sticks [10].

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc.'s oral tobacco business achieved a significant margin performance in Q3 2025, with adjusted operating company income margins increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 69.2% despite a decline in segment revenues and a 9.6% drop in overall shipment volumes [1][7] - The margin expansion is attributed more to pricing power rather than product mix, as Altria raised prices while maintaining strong pricing discipline, even as competitors in the pouch category reduced prices [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The oral tobacco margin of 69% reflects effective pricing strategies and cost control in a competitive market, indicating that Altria can sustain profitability through disciplined execution [3][7] - Altria's shares have decreased by 12.5% over the past month, contrasting with the industry's decline of 5.7% [6] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Altria is 10.33X, lower than the industry average of 13.44X, suggesting potential undervaluation [8] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 6.1% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026 [9] - Current earnings estimates for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 are projected at $1.30 and $1.24, respectively, with the current year estimate at $5.43 and next year at $5.57 [10]

Summary of Key Points Group 1: Company Recommendations - Zoom Communications Inc. is considered a good company but lacks a catalyst for investment recommendation, leading to advice to "take a pass" [1] - Viking Therapeutics, Inc. reported quarterly losses of 81 cents per share, missing the analyst consensus estimate of a loss of 72 cents per share [2] - Eli Lilly and Company is recommended over Viking Therapeutics [2] Group 2: Earnings Reports - Altria Group, Inc. reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.45, which is a 3.6% year-over-year increase and in line with analyst consensus [2] - Altria's quarterly sales were $6.072 billion, down 3% year-over-year, but exceeded the Street view of $5.309 billion [2] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Piper Sandler analyst maintained ProFrac Holding Corp. with a Neutral rating and lowered the price target from $6 to $5 [1] - Jim Cramer expressed a negative outlook on oil stocks, stating they are "all going lower" and advised against investing in them [1] Group 4: Stock Price Movements - Viking Therapeutics shares fell 3.8% to settle at $34.63 [4] - Altria shares rose 1.1% to close at $57.31 [4] - Zoom shares fell 2.8% to settle at $83.83 [4] - ProFrac shares dipped 7.6% to close at $5.12 [4]

Group 1: Altria Group - Altria Group is experiencing challenges due to declining cigarette sales, with a reported decrease of 4.5% in the last quarter [1] - The company is focusing on diversifying its product portfolio, particularly in the smokeless tobacco and vaping segments, to offset the decline in traditional tobacco products [1] - Altria's revenue for the last quarter was reported at $5.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 2% [1] Group 2: Conagra Brands Inc. - Conagra Brands Inc. has shown resilience in the food sector, with a revenue increase of 3% year-over-year, reaching $3.0 billion in the last quarter [1] - The company is investing in innovation and marketing to enhance its product offerings and capture a larger market share [1] - Conagra's operating income for the last quarter was reported at $400 million, indicating a strong performance despite market challenges [1]